MAFIA 92 - The return of the Witchfinder General [GAME THREAD]

[ghug]

My one concern with your latter point is that Vecna calling it out the way he did seems like a textbook case of scum noticing inconsistencies in their teammates more acutely.

I think I'm in aggregate he does look more good than bad, but it's not a certainty.

[Jamiet99uk]

VOTE COUNT 3.0

JustAGuyNamedWill (2) - ND, ghug
ghug (1) - DemonRHK
bozotheclown (1) - miminena
foodcoats (1) - brainbomb

Currently JUST WILL is facing his just (or unjust?) desserts.

Plenty of time is left.

[foodcoats]

It is interesting that out of everyone who moved their vote to worcej in the last 4 minutes of D1, only DiplomacyandWarfare had been voting for Red Neurax. It is not clear why all of the DiplomacyandWarfare and ND voters preferred worcej over Red Neurax.

hence my claim that most of the worcej early voters were town....

There was no need nor motivation for scum to be scrambling there. If any of the original 3 wagons were scum, they'd already done their scrambles and saved their teammate.

OK, but you did not say most of his "early voters":

This is fucking hilarious though to be fair.

It's really funny on rerun too...I'm thinking most of the worcej voters are town

Also, I think it depends on if any of the prevalent EOD wagons were mafia.

I'm catching up now, so apologies that I'm out of sync.

The one thing to think about is whether there was a run on either the Red or worcej wagons as a way to defuse the Dip wagon. There was a lot going on at the end of D1, though.

I think the fact that Dip went off Red to tie his own wagon with Red and ND's suggests ND is town.

worcej advancing the Red wagon over Dip and ND's suggests he could be scum.

ghug bolstering the Dip wagon suggests he is town.

Vecna began the worcej wagon, but there was no reason for him to do so if scum as this could've caused a cascade that put Dip in the lead. brainbomb went from Dip to worcej, however, so he could be scum.

TL;DR ND, ghug, and Vecna all get town points; worcej and brainbomb get scum points.

[foodcoats]

##VOTE Just

I don't have any strong scum suspects, but Just has done some things I found suspicious. Besides what I have already pointed out, I don't understand why he would be town reading Red Neurax rather strongly D1. I looked at M1034, and it seems like Red Neurax won that game as mafia with a very similar low activity D1.

He has also been town while lurking. Lurking for him is NAI

When someone is being wagoned for something NAI, it is very likely town

What else would you like clarification on?

The highlighted statement is... not logical. In the case of a serial lurker, killing them for NAI lurking does not mean they are more likely to be town than normal. They have the same odds of being town or scum. But their behaviour is anti-town, their existence is a long range risk to town, and killing them is pro town.

[foodcoats]

I was not townreading Red because he was lurking

I was townreading Red because people *wagoned* him for lurking

I don't think this statement is scummy of Will, but I have to again point out how highly illogical this is. I would actually argue it is more likely scum would argue against killing lurkers, because lurkers help scum's late game. So if anything, one should conclude the opposite of Will's conclusion.

Kill all lurkers!

[foodcoats]

He has also been town while lurking. Lurking for him is NAI

When someone is being wagoned for something NAI, it is very likely town

What else would you like clarification on?

Were you talking about Red Neurax here:

Wagons change fast, the worcej wagon popped up in less than a minute, Dip’s wagon could have too

I was not going to vote someone I townread

No if ands or buts about it unless its to prevent a tie

Also, if you were town reading worcej and Red Neurax, why did you pick worcej to vote for over Red Neurax here:

yeah worcej is just town

##VOTE WORCEJ

sorry dude

I voted Worcej because I townread him, but did so less than Red

It seems impossible that Will and worcej be scum together. I don't currently scumread Will, anyway, though.

[foodcoats]

cant we just kill bozo or something? ghug? I'm not liking the wagons, Im trying to speed read but just got off work

I may have missed it, but it's interesting that Spirit added bozo to his preferred kill list. I thought it was me and ghug at the time. Although I don't remember all of Spirit's D2, this smacks of opportunism.

[foodcoats]

##vote will
I really wish that I had time to read everyone's posts and make a decision, but I have 8 minutes and I am somehow a wagon today

The fact that Dip made Just his counterwagon basically clears Just. Bunny later tied it, but we know that Bunny was town.

[foodcoats]

why cant we just kill ghug or bozo, infinite more info

I'd love an explanation of this statement.

##VOTE dip

you interacted interestingly with far more people, dip has just been on defensive the whole time and town and scum probably both took equal shots at him

I really don't like how Spirit always wants to vote for the purpose of "info," but based on some of their choices, I still think they are town.

[foodcoats]

Ok now I definitely think Will is his teammate though.

Why do you think Will is Dip's teammate?

[foodcoats]

Ok now I definitely think Will is his teammate though.

Go on....

Will's just been sitting there voting him all game. That reeks of bus.

I guess this is possible, if Dip decided at the end to bus Will as his counterwagon to confuse town if one of them flipped. Although again I haven't found anything inherent to Will to scumread him. But he's fooled me before.

[foodcoats]

The one thing I can be certain of is Worcej town

I think he’s essentially cleared atp

I don't know that that is so certain. I know that you and worcej are not scum together.

[foodcoats]

I probably won't be available @ EoN to post, so I might as well do my "work" now...

D1 VCA now has some real good meat to it imho

Before I entered into the fray of the last 10 minutes, the votes were this:
Dip (4) - Bunny, brain, Demon, Will
Red (4) - food, kotp, ND, Spirit
ND (4) - Dip, ghug, Red, Vecna
Will (2) - bozo, mimi

I feel like the movement of ghug onto dip @ 00:05 left not something scum ghug would've done, as it kept Dip as the viable counter-wagon to Red, with little time left and would be unnecessary risk. For this, I feel good about towning him. (also, I just saw ghug reference this at Demon to defend himselve as I previewed my color choices and I feel less-good because of how he is using it actively...)

After I voted and made Red the leader at 5, Vecna, BB, and Demon all pounced on me, which opened up Dip, Will, ghug, and mimi to come at me and make me the counter wagon for Red.

Of all these votes, the ones I don't like the most are BB and Demon because they came off very opportunistic and gave them a green light to bail off their potential teammate. Demon also pointed out he looks bad based off D1 (via the cross-post of ghug being gross), so I lean a little more towny at him for owning it versus keeping that hidden. I'd say BB should be a D3 choice while letting demon slide (for now).

I think Vecna is fine - he had not liked my voting and how I was behaving, so he had justification to come at me. I don't think Vecna should be a wagon anytime soon and is probably town.

I am a little meh at Will because his actions on D1 were hyper-defensive of Redand I think scum!Will would go about doing this to justify his voting here, so I think a D3 look at Will is warranted.

Finally, mimi - who has been incredibly analytical, but I don't agree with the conclusions entirely made on D1 or N1. I suspect, ultimately, that I need to really read her (I think this is the right pronoun?) D2 to make a judgement.

Conclusion:
Towny: ND, ghug (with a little bit of on his shirt), Vecna
Lean-Towny: Demon
No idea: mimi
"Let's flip D3": BB and Will

I do agree with the conclusion that brainbomb is possible scum here... although I'm now looking back and seeing he started and then sat on the Dip wagon all D2.

[foodcoats]

The one thing I can be certain of is Worcej town

I think he’s essentially cleared atp

Expand further as to why you arrive to this.

Wagons EOD were Red/Dip, until you popped up as a CW, and the Dip wagon died

There practically no chance you’re a wolf with Dip

This assumes that scum pushed the worcej wagon, when in fact most things are town driven and scum just shuttle along as best they can to obscure. I don't think the worcej wagon was STARTED by scum, but worcej could still be scum.

[foodcoats]

How am I not towny after Dip flipping, I was the person most adamantly trying to kill him

Remember that time you D1 bussed sweetandcool?

[foodcoats]

How am I not towny after Dip flipping, I was the person most adamantly trying to kill him

VCA negates your words. I also thought you were too adamant that Red was town.

Now I'm getting all mixed up. Maybe Will IS scum.

Maybe the best wagons for today are Will versus worcej, because they can't both be scum. But they COULD both be town, so... no...

[foodcoats]

Well the Hiryu took a direct hit while its bombers were fully fueled and ready to launch on the deck.

Next up the Akagi (Demon RhK)
The Soryu (foodcoats)
And the Kaga is 3p

I thought you were making a carrier reference before, and now I see you were! Are you a Pacific War fanboy? Do you play War in the Pacific: Admiral's Edition? Because if you do, we need to spend the next eight years playing a PBEM campaign against each other.

Okay, back to Mafia...

[foodcoats]

Day 1 notes
Why is damo announcing he is town if he hasnt read the setup?

A setup like this means mafia will try to get a lurker to go deep among their pr. I should be looking for low posters who also could be 3p that are off in meta.

Pirates asking everyone what gimmick to use feels like not having a plan

Damo even knows the names of characters in the setup; so he probably has really read the setup. Why did he lie?

Dips posts are tryhard very early. Maybe damo isnt bad and dip is.

Will doing a bit for lie detector is good unless he knows there is a tamperer.

Pirates and mimi both doing the lie detector speech is good. Looks natural.

Post 34 will is being a bit ridiculous, dips participation was fine there

Post 38 is weird however; why is dip telling us that hes softing PR?

I think I wanna enter the game doing something that throws off a possible scum lie detector. Maybe I can bait a role block

Reading now that roleblocks wont create clears. Boring. May as well try to bait it anyway.

Dip light scumread on will seems phony

Post 50 pirates trying to break it up could be all three as mafia.

Post 56 is a good entry from rhk. Is he talking about me?

More strange stuff from dip on post 60. What is that from?

Post 63 I think RHK is maf or 3p. Weird start.

Posts by spirit are a bit too flavorful and have a vibe to him

Not a fan of his vote on pirates

An av change draws alot of attention. Dip is being weird again

Demon is definitely playing my direction; now voting me. Maybe thats not scummy for him.

Spirit openly claiming 3p warlock; no way he does it as actual 3p tho.

Will still working the room asking for lie detector pings. Ill give him one!

Mimi is good but isnt asking the right question about dip and willl there.

Spirit voting red could be an attack of opportunity, this reminds me of how food plays when he is mafia.

Food acting strange about dip and calling him a witchfinder.

People getting after will for protecting newbs

Ghug posts are meh but the spirit vote is pretty good.

Why is my strategy sus? Do people not realize maf has a LD potentially?

And ND is annoying already

Worcej posts are [redacted]

It is odd he is speculating on if im a PR now openly. Thats sloppy on his part whether hes town or scum.

159 I was nodding along til the end part.

ND sermonizing is on brand with his scum game

Worcej naming off damo as a good player seems odd.[redacted] hes only good when hes PR or when hes deep agent scum.

[redacted]


Pirates
Will
Mimi

Ghug
Damo
Worcej
ND
dip
Food

Will always shielding new players is annoying

I like eliminating someone good im just sad worcej didnt list me as someone to eliminate. Im a challenge I think?

Ghug is always killed by maf teams who think hes pr. He always has to take everything as a dig at him.

[redacted]

How did I mix up food and spirit. Theyre both kinda scummy so far so oh well. I thought foods posts were earlier than that but I guess it was spirit.

[redacted]
————-/

This was up to the point where my vote moved to spirit. I took alot less notes after mixing up food and spirit and opted to just talk more in the game. However I also have N1 notes ill share later.

I've never seen brainbomb's notes before, but... this feels performative.

[foodcoats]

Woah…

Is it just D&W-spirit with a kotp warlock?

D&W-Spirit-bozo with kotp as Warlock

Where I’m at for the mafia team, idk about kotp tho, I’m still unsure who the 3p is

Very interesting that Will claims his scum team is exactly Bunny's.

[foodcoats]

I son't like ghug for the Dup flip. I think there could have been a lot of playing with the wagon near the end of D1 as well. Ghug as scum would make brain look bad.

Vecna's just been off. I can't put a finger on it.

next tier is like...food/pirate/spirit.

If I die, No Kill for the memes.

I've been reading a lot of good analysis by people and this post by Demon just sticks out as not being based on anything. It is possible Demon is just playing lots of Civ, but I think there's a lot of good reasons to townread ghug and Vecna right now. And KotP, Spirit, and myself have all been scumread by other people, which makes this feel really lazy.

I'm starting to think Will or RHK will be my vote.