MAFIA 92 - The return of the Witchfinder General [GAME THREAD]

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

Brain I hate to say this after you already did analysis but I’m unsure that wordcount and wpp is relevant, since words inside quotes are counted in the words you’ve stated

[brainbomb]

Brain I hate to say this after you already did analysis but I’m unsure that wordcount and wpp is relevant, since words inside quotes are counted in the words you’ve stated

Are we sure? Ive never heard that the bot does that. Someone who hasnt posted yet should quote this post and we can see if the bot gives a correct word count

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

I can try it SOD3

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

Im not 100% but I remember thinking my numbers were off a few games ago from what i posted

[brainbomb]

Well we can always throw out words and words per posts if youre right. Post totals still tell some of a story

[ghug]

Anyway, Diplomacy&Warfare's flip does necessitate a revisit to D1 so I'll do that today.

On a side note: I am glad that ghug is actively engaging with the game now. That's good to see. I don't find this necessary to say, but since he has repeatedly brought politics into this and falsely claimed things about me then I am going to respond.

I'm not a fascist. I'm about the farthest thing from it. I have academically studied fascism and actively hate those regimes. I am not a member of any kind of far right hate group and actively despise violence and hatred of all kinds. I support our two party system and our constitutional Republic. I work with Democrats and liberal-minded people. I listen to liberal podcasts and conservative podcasts daily. Both sides have things to offer to improve the lives of people in this country. True, I may not have voted a way that you like -but plenty of people didn't and people in this community didn't. I find your targeting of me for personal reasons just gross honestly especially since you don't have a clue as to what you are talking about.

You need to learn how to enjoy a game with people you may disagree with politically and it may do you some good man so chill out. Stop bringing stuff into a game that people are playing to test their deduction skills and just want to get a bit of enjoyment out of. So, I respectively ask you to stop stating things that I am not. You are the only one doing it.

Thanks

You're the one that brought politics into it, bub. There are horrible things happening in the world right now and if you're going to open the game gloating about them, I'm not going to suffer in silence. If you want to focus on the game, focus on the game and I'll do the same.

[miminena]

Brain I hate to say this after you already did analysis but I’m unsure that wordcount and wpp is relevant, since words inside quotes are counted in the words you’ve stated

Are we sure? Ive never heard that the bot does that. Someone who hasnt posted yet should quote this post and we can see if the bot gives a correct word count

this is provable right now, i think. this night phase, Vecna has posted 32 words over 2 posts according to the bot, the second post includes a quote. By my count, there were 32 words excluding the quote, somebody else can double check this but I think quotes are excluded in word count

[ghug]

Ghug

Total Sample Size 23
Winrate As Mafia
ghug
9 wins
14 losses
0.6428571429 winrate


Ghug is 9-14 overall as scum with a 64% winrate. That is the second best mafia winrate on the forum behind Maniac (66%)

Ghug also has a 60% town winrate going 9-15.

Out of 10 town games
Posting stats ghug as town
Avg 565 posts per game
11310 words per game
20 words per post


Out of 5 scum games
Posting stats ghug as maf
Avg 413 posts per game
8109 words per game
19.6 words per post

——(sample size all time avg)
Per day 1 posting stats
Town posts per day 1 : 64
Town words per day 1: 725
Town w/ post day 1: 11.33

Per day 1 posting stats (mafia)
Mafia posts per day 1: 43
Mafia words per day 1: 422
Mafia w/ post day 1: 9.81

——

Current game day 1 stats
Day 1 posts: 57
Day 1 words: 1018
Day 1 w/post: 17.86


——
Above avg numbers for ghug which leans town. He is capable of faking things but this is subconscious.

How is that a 64% winrate?

[brainbomb]

9/14

[brainbomb]

Ah I see its out of 14 not 14 losses. Weird

[ND]

well I tried. Anyway, I am going to concentrate on the game. Hope you chill out man.

[ND]

Like I said, Diplomacy&Warfare’s flip necessitates a revisit of EOD#1. Diplomacy&Warfare’s flip broke my theory of the game and the suspicion that it was TvTvTvT?

Now that we know Diplomacy&Warfare’s alignment, we can make some speculative deductions based upon his interactions during the last 30 minutes.

Consider, these two interactions:

“I should note that appearing in the last 5 minutes just in time to vote, forcing other players to make decisions quickly is very, very scummy” (Diplomacy&Warfare, 38)

And two direct quote replies to DemonRHK

“Exactly how does voting me make this a three-way?” (Diplomacy&Warfare, 38)

“You stand accused of deliberately not posting until your body red neurax was in danger of dying” (Diplomacy&Warfare, 38)

Take-away: DemonRHK is passive aggressive towards my vote for Red Neurax. He doesn’t give me a direct quote reply, but he does do a direct quote reply to DemonRHK twice. Back to back, in fact. Speculative, but he seems caught off guard by this and angered more by it. This interaction is crucial.

Following this, Dip does issue some additional direct replies. Most of these are along the same lines. He responds to Will with a similar, you came in late so you are scum type of response. He calls Vecna scummy three times for posting, etc., and has a similar attitude towards Damo and Worcej. As far as I can tell, my vote triggers this argumentative line but he never directly responds to me. He initially engages with DemonRHK and Will to a certain extent. Then he branches out somewhat.

DemonRHK says, “Dip is going to jump ship, this is risking a runaway” (DemonRHK, 41)

Soon after, we have Will making a vote on Diplomacy&Warfare as other players start to move towards Worcej. Although, Will will eventually land on Worcej. I don’t know if the bot caught this, but Will is listed as a Worcej voter on Jamie’s final vote tally for EOD#1.

Now, we have talked a bit at length about Worcej. My thoughts on him haven’t changed much. I don’t see his EOD1 actions as scum indicative. You can see my opinion at EON1 analysis.

Let’s speculate for a moment about DemonRHK, Will, and Diplomacy&Warfare. Diplomacy&Warfare directly replies to them both quickly. He quickly responds to RHK and engages with Will. This line of argument, ‘you came in late so you are scum’ really occupies his mind with everyone voting after which. He doesn’t directly quote me on my Red vote, but he does quote them for their late votes on him.

What’s kind of notable here is that his wagon vanishes. DemonRHK and Will both switch to Worcej and follow the flash wagon. It’s possible one of them were setting up a bus on Diplomacy&Warfare. More likely DemonRHK considering he was an early voter to Worcej whereas Will does move back and forth. DemonRHK’s initial vote on Diplomacy&Warfare did provoke one of Dip’s most interesting reactions EOD#1 as well.

So, if we have the theory that (town) Worcej made himself a wagon to save me and some of the scum team who were setting up a bus on Dip&War took the bait with 10 minutes to go then DemonRHK or Will (potentially) could fit the bill.

Out of the Worcej voters, I reason that those two are the most likely to flip scum. Red was town. Ghug, I am leaning more towards town. Dip&Warfare has flipped scum and Brain I am reading as town although his reliance on meta facts does irk me.

I think Will and DemonRHK should be the D3 focus. Of course, there could be other possibilities. Bunny is a possibility for a scum team member. Someone who disengaged with the game D1, wasn’t present, and thus actively removed themselves from the analysis by absence. It’s a null. And, we could have scum on the Red wagon. Scum who put an early vote on the wagon and checked out or just held their votes because it didn't matter if (town) Red or (town?) Worcej died. Potentially KotP or Food in that grouping.

I am less inclined to say anything else regarding the remainder of the Red wagon apart from the fact that I seriously doubt that Vecna is scum.

So scum potential: DemonRHK, Will, KotP, Food with possibilities in Bozo/Spirit/Bunny.

[brainbomb]

Will is there anything that people do in survivor games that correlates well to things people do in mafia games?

[Jamiet99uk]

GM NOTE

If you have orders to enter, please send to both GMs

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

Will is there anything that people do in survivor games that correlates well to things people do in mafia games?

Not really no

Except for everyone dogpiling on the first vote

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

Why do you have a townread on miminena?

I believe their early posting was slightly towny because they seemed to want to help town and had an eagerness to play which i see in newere players

will and dip facing off early, knowing the best money is on one of you two getting day oned. prolly both nervous town, but I'd be betting on you if I were the guy

This post just sticks out to me as weird. I know there are a few other spirit defending dip posts but this one in particular feels… strange

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

Dude I think I might be a Lakers fan now, Luka Doncic and Lebron James on the same team has convinced me

Goodbye 12-40 Utah Jazz! You were fun for 0 seasons!

[brainbomb]

. Yeah Id be down to kill rhk tomorrow now that you mention it

my sus on ghug, demon, and bunny increased a little bit, they were in his scum reads and along with BB I believe I remember bunny and ghug both trying to keep damo alive as town since he usually has a stronger mid-to-late game. Rereading damo he was pushing lie detector statements pretty hard so maybe mafia thought he was that PR

Spirit, d2 you voted for ghug, food, bozo, ghug and dip. You mentioned a willingness n2 to vote drhk, and then im not seeing much of any mention of rhk at all? Did you run out of time to pursue him?

[bozotheclown]

I think the remaining mafia would want to end on DiplomacyandWarfare as he was DKed, so I think that is where the probably were.

Vecna: First vote for D&W D2, but quickly moved vote, then returned when D&W became a wagon. He would have to have been hard bussing since his vote was critical in building the D&W wagon.

brainbomb: Second vote for D&W D2, was scum reading D&W D1 for similarity to past scum games. Possible bussing, but it would be a little risky to put D&W in contention for the D1 DK at the time of his vote.

BunnyGo: Third vote for D&W D2, but almost immediately moved his vote before returning to D&W at EOD. Only voted for D&W D1, and voted for Just D2 EOD to cause a 5-5 tie before moving to D&W. Reasonable bussing possibility, leaving his vote on D&W all of D1 is consistent with BunnyGo's scum pattern.

Just: Fifth vote for D&W D2 and never moved his vote, second vote for D&W D2. Reasonable bussing possibility, the move to D&W D1 EOD when he was no longer in contention for the DK looks like distancing, and this also left it up to others to determine worcej vs. Red Neurax, with Just only moving to avoid a tie.

kingofthepirates: Sixth vote for D&W D2, did not vote for D&W D1. Possible bussing, claimed to be voting for D&W for information.

worcej: Seventh vote for D&W D2. Bussing unlikely because his vote was critical in getting D&W DKed, and it is unlikely he would do what he did D1 EOD as mafia when Red Neurax was ahead of D&W by only 2 votes. It turned out most of the worcej votes came from D&W voters, but they could have come from Red Neurax.

SpiritoftheRadio: Eighth vote for D&W D2, when D&W DK was likely decided, but not certain. Bussing possible, but would no get much credit for it.

ghug: Ninth vote for D&W D2, when D&W DK was decided. No bussing credit for D2, but voted for D&W D1 at a time that would maximize bussing credit, so bussing possible.

RHK: Only D2 D&W voter that did not end on D&W, was the third vote for D&W D2 with a strong scum read, but then moved to Just. Possible distancing.

foodcoats, miminena, and ND are the only players besides myself who never voted for D&W.

Conclusion: BunnyGo and Just are the most likely D&W bussers, followed by kingofthepirates and ghug.

[bozotheclown]

on reread, it was ghug's votes that tilted me off yesterday morning (sketchy reasons i think it was?). but today it feels better, I was probably too harsh in my judgement back then. I also have no clue what's going on rn.

##vote dip

I think it's one of the more informative flips, others (by which i mean other voters) logic feels sound, and I have a slight hunch/theory that I hope to test.

What was your theory?