Mafia XL - A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Forum

[Squigs44]

If ghug and flash are both scum, I think Rdrivera is town based off of vca yesterday.

I'm thinking damo ghug flash requires Bo or Bozo as the fourth.

[rdrivera2005]

Also town rdr scum reads me or chastises me at some point for being stupid - right?

Only when I am really upset. And I apologized after that game, I wasn't proud of my behavior.
That game was different, I were pretty sure about Yav and then ND and can't convince anyone, this game I just bounce back and forth.

[damo666]

ND I can see you have made your mind up but the truth of the matter is top wagons were town both days. Obviously I'm the only townsperson that knows this but Xorxes said it and both demonRHK and Worcej implied it.

As I have said before scum are playing a clever game and have never come under any pressure (Ezio apart).

As for flash's votes day 2 on Peter I think was to prevent a tie. As scum he didn't care which wagon, any would do so seeing votes evaporate from me to Peter I guess he saw that as safest to prevent tie. Day 1 could be similar or maybe he just wanted a blend in vote.

[damo666]

If ghug and flash are both scum, I think Rdrivera is town based off of vca yesterday.

I'm thinking damo ghug flash requires Bo or Bozo as the fourth.

Squigs if you are correct re rdrivera and you are townclearing both ND and Durga the scumteam is flash ghug bozo bo_sox.

[damo666]

Squigs does it work swapping rdrivera for ghug?

[Durga]

Bo has many occasions of seeming authentic. I'm worried about bozo.

[bozotheclown]

Ok, well if DemonRHK is to be believed which i am of the opinion that he should be, then we know that the scum team wasn't trying to save DemonRHK D1 and to a lesser extent D2. He was a wagon both days. That leaves you, @Damo.

There are two explanations here:

The first explanation is that I am dead wrong and I have been chasing smoke the whole game. Damo is town and I am just wrong. If he is town then all of the D1-D2 primary, secondary, and tertiary EOD wagons are town -if DemonRHK is to be believed-. This means that there is no inherent 'inorganic' problem in the late day wagons. There was no scum manipulation. Why manipulate when there was no reason to do so? None of their people were threatened. It didn't matter who died. Thus, the scum have a totally normal vote spread or maybe a slight concentration somewhere.

I don't think that this explanation makes sense.

1. There was a bloc of players that were instrumental both days in getting both those primary wagons lynched. I have highlighted this several times now.
2. There was a player @Damo who was under threat both days and wagons did come late that were successful in overtaking his wagon and those players (Peter/Thd) got lynched.
3. There are anomalies in the wagons themselves. How does Flash who just enters the game late D1 just so happen to read 20+ pages and drop his vote at EOD on the late wagon that forms to overtake Damo. That is the essence of manipulation.


I don't think I am wrong. I think the evidence both factual, data driven, and circumstantial supports the idea that there was something wrong with both D1 and D2. I believe that those wagons were scum influenced. If I am right then it boils down to why would they influence the wagon, late, to push for Thd/Peter? Because someone else was in jeopardy. If DemonRHK isn't scum and he is claiming a PR role then the only other person that could have been in jeopardy D1 and D2 is Damo. There was no one else. There would be no reason to influence the wagons if Damo is town. If he is town why would they care to concentrate their votes or jump on or start a late day wagon? They wouldn't care. Period. Full stop. They wouldn't care who died out of the three wagons if every one of the major wagons was town.

Like, if there is another explanation that I am missing then someone point it out, but I just don't see it. It's one or the other. If I am right then I have caught Damo and Flash, but the problem is that like no one cares. People are more concerned with pursuing bizarre scumreads or railroading someone like Ike.

Damo and Flash need to be lynched immediately. Either one. Both need to go.

I agree that this is the obvious explanation of what has been going on, and I do not understand why there is not more interest in lynching damo to find out one way or the other. As town players keep getting lynched, the scum influence on the lynches keeps growing, so we should lynch damo now before it is too late to overcome the scum driven wagons. Looking at those who have protected damo, I think DrCJG and flash are the top scum candidates, but damo should be lynched first.

[bozotheclown]

I think that last post from ND reinforces my town read of him. I'm starting to come around on damo. But that would mean I need to start looking at bozo/drCj/worcej, and I'm wondering if ghug-Bo scum team + flash + one of the 3. I think I'd be shocked if at least one of ghug-Bo isn't scum. I think we can figure that out next day though.

damo has sounded better lately, but I believe he has deliberately altered his play since the first two days after being pressured for being defensive and noncommittal on his reads.

[bozotheclown]

##CALL GM: It looks like the bot has stopped working, is there any chance of getting that fixed by EOD?

[DrCJG]

Claim: The driver has yet to drive

Discuss

Agreed - they haven't need to drive in any way yet.

I agree, they seem to have intentionally targeted experienced players on the fringe of townclears that would be less likely to get doctored or boxed, which allowed them to avoid the use of the driver and reduce their footprint.

Since Demon watched Worcej and Balki died... it is going to be a tough call on the doctor and Demon (box sender) tonight, but may not even matter given the driver likely has some drives left.

I think it may be best to agree to who (doctor or demon) will attempt to save Squigs... they won't have to actually try, but just so they don't have to consider if the other is going to try and save him. Personally, I vote doctor. Squigs what do you think?

[Foxcastle]

##CALL GM: It looks like the bot has stopped working, is there any chance of getting that fixed by EOD?

##GM NOTE: I've asked Peterlund to take a look at it. I will post updates with any new information.

[rdrivera2005]

Claim: The driver has yet to drive

Discuss

Agreed - they haven't need to drive in any way yet.

I agree, they seem to have intentionally targeted experienced players on the fringe of townclears that would be less likely to get doctored or boxed, which allowed them to avoid the use of the driver and reduce their footprint.

Since Demon watched Worcej and Balki died... it is going to be a tough call on the doctor and Demon (box sender) tonight, but may not even matter given the driver likely has some drives left.

I think it may be best to agree to who (doctor or demon) will attempt to save Squigs... they won't have to actually try, but just so they don't have to consider if the other is going to try and save him. Personally, I vote doctor. Squigs what do you think?

I don't think forcing the hand of our PRs is a good choice as this give scum more info on who not to target. Also, protecting the Observer is probably a better choice then protecting Squigs (sorry Squigs).

[brainbomb]

MANUAL VOTE COUNT

Flash 3 - ghuggle mcduggle, durga flurga, NDee
Ghug 2 - big bad bo, DRCjchchchchjhcjc
Rivera 1 - Squigglypuff, damosatan666
Damo666.satan 1 - Bozodeclawn
Durga 1- worchestschire

Currently Flash is set to be burned alive

Rhk, Flash and Rivera have not yet voted
8 hours remain

[ND]

##vote damo

Slept on it. Let's do this. It's the best vote.

[damo666]

##vote flash

[ND]

I saw damo's reply but I don't buy it.

[damo666]

I saw damo's reply but I don't buy it.

O well. Up to you. Read through my posts and you will see there are several that are most unlikely to have been scumposted.

[Foxcastle]

VOTE COUNT

flash2015 (3) — ghug, Durga, damo666
damo666 (2) — bozotheclown, ND
ghug (2) — bo_sox48, DrCjG
rdrivera2005 (1) — Squigs44
Durga (1) — worcej

Not voted: DemonRHK, flash2015, rdrivera2005

FLASH2015 is set to be thrown to the lions.

7 hours remain in Day 5.

[damo666]

We can't ignore two day's of vote patterns. That's real data and we have two very real mislynches where a set of players just so happen to be involved in both. If you don't want people to look at vote patterns and data how do you intend to solve this? Just ignore it.

...

All I have to look at is the voting patterns and data Balki. That's hard fact. ...A vote is a data point and when you have two days of voting data coupled with circumstantial statements you can start to create a picture of the game. I expect total utilization of everything going into D3 not just circumstantial cases alone. That's cheap.

No, I'm not suggesting that people ignore vote patterns. I agree that voting patterns are important information to consider.

Let me put my critique this way: Do you think that voting to lynch a townie on both Day 1 and Day 2 makes a person more likely to be scum or less likely to be scum?

In your recent statements, you seem to be assuming that it makes someone more likely to be scum. I'd ask that you consider that question carefully before you assume it.

I think it is a hard question to answer given what we know. Right now, we don't know if there was a player on the scum team who was a leading wagon. We don't know the alignment of most of the people on any of the wagons. We don't have a very full picture of potential scum motivations for making certain votes.

Scum have reason to join wagons to lynch Townies. But Scum also have reason to avoid those wagons, especially the wagons that actually flip.

So no, your paraphrase of my suggestion is not correct. I am not saying that we should ignore vote analysis. But I don't think it is a good idea to focus primarily on a small list of people who ended up on the town lynch on Days 1 and 2. Given what we know right now, I think it would be a mild surprise if any scum member allowed him or herself to wind up on both of those lynches in the end.

This is worth reposting. ND have a read.

[damo666]

Currently I see no prospect of my survival so in accordance with my wincon

##Vote damo666

Balki please hurry and do a save post on me

Bozo - yes, by voting for myself. I thought that much stronger than simply saying 'I'm a VT'.

I am still not clear what you meant in your self voting post D1. If you are VT, why is it better for your wincon to self vote? Are you saying you thought the other top wagons were town and it was better to vote for yourself than risk voting for a town PR?

Precisely. I'd rather go as a VT than risk a town PR.

See. thdfrance was town and demonRHK turns out to be PR.