War, what is it good for?

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

Iran just launched 100 missiles at Israel. Seems like we're locked in a cycle of escalation predicated on "retaliation" from both sides.

[Octavious]

In a funny sort of way I'm more than a little reassured by the limitations of missile attacks, demonstrated both in Israel and Ukraine. I'd been assuming that technology in this area had advanced a lot more than than it apparently has.

But yeah, it will be interesting to see Israel's response. Israeli military intelligence regarding Hamas has proved to have had several major blind spots. Israeli military intelligence regarding Hezbollah has been magnificent. One would imagine that the efforts made in knowing their major rival would be extensive, and if successful you'd be expecting a demonstration in the form of a devastating attack on something considered to be safe.

[jamesweb]

Interesting perspective on missile tech limitations. Your observation about Israel's varying intelligence quality with Hamas vs Hezbollah is sharp. The "devastating attack" prediction sounds plausible - Israel's typically not one to let provocations slide without a proportional (or disproportional) response.

The cookie line at the end made me chuckle, though. Random flex, but okay!

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

Even though it's mostly symbolic, I'm glad to see the ICC issue warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant, as well as Mohammed Deif.

[Jamiet99uk]

Jamie's pfp and signature are a prime example of your concluding paragraph. It implies that he believes what Hamas is doing is good, and what Israel is doing is evil. What are Hamas and Israel doing?

My profile picture and signature make no reference to Hamas whatsoever.

The implication is there. I'll admit, I am not aware of your full range of views on the topic. But I am aware of what you present to me, which has its implications. You should've known when you displayed it to the public (and I think you did) that that is how it would be taken. However, I will ask for clarification, and based on that I'll edit my post. Do you mean to say free Palestine from Israel or free Palestine from Hamas? Forgetting Hamas, would you say that what Israel is doing is wrong?

Moving this back in here:

I would really love to know how my Profile Picture and Signature, which feature an American actress playing a Native American, and a quote from the relevant movie, indicate support for Hamas.

I would love to know why Captain Fritz thinks the Addams Family are Hamas supporters.

I'll wait.

[Jamiet99uk]

Meanwhile, Israel is busy taking advantage of the situation in Syria to steal significant areas of Syrian land and move new Zionist settlers to the Golan Heights which it previously stole from the occupants.

Israel is increasingly showing itself to be an illegitimate rogue state based on theft and murder.

[Jamiet99uk]

My profile picture and signature make no reference to Hamas whatsoever.

The implication is there. I'll admit, I am not aware of your full range of views on the topic. But I am aware of what you present to me, which has its implications. You should've known when you displayed it to the public (and I think you did) that that is how it would be taken. However, I will ask for clarification, and based on that I'll edit my post. Do you mean to say free Palestine from Israel or free Palestine from Hamas? Forgetting Hamas, would you say that what Israel is doing is wrong?

Moving this back in here:

I would really love to know how my Profile Picture and Signature, which feature an American actress playing a Native American, and a quote from the relevant movie, indicate support for Hamas.

I would love to know why Captain Fritz thinks the Addams Family are Hamas supporters.

I'll wait.

Still curious.

[Jamiet99uk]

In the meantime, let me just address this amazing question:

Forgetting Hamas, would you say that what Israel is doing is wrong?

YES what Israel is doing is WRONG.

Holy shit, of course it's wrong. They have spent the past 14 months murdering more than 45,000 people, including over 17,000 children. They have turned the vast majority of buildings in the Gaza strip to rubble. The entire territory has been destroyed and rendered uninhabitable. Many tens of thousands more have been serious injured and had their entire lives blighted for ever.

This an act of genocide and all of Israel's leaders should be put on trial and sent to prison for life.

Yes it's fucking wrong. It's evil. Benjamin Netanyahu is a war criminal.

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

Someone should probably play devil's advocate for Israel so Jamie doesn't have to argue against himself and months old posts anymore lol.

[Jamiet99uk]

Oh.

Hmm.

I did not realise that I was referring to posts from last October. I see this occurred because Fluminator bumped a different thread referring to those remarks.

@Captain F:
No need to reply to me on this after all - we will have discussed it last year and I did not notice that your remarks in question were from last October.

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

The best I can offer is a highly partial defense of Israel's illegal occupation of the Golan Heights.

Legally, the area around the Golan Heights is controlled by Lebanon and Syria. In practice, though, it's controlled by Hezbollah to the north and, until recently, ISIS to the east (and before that, the Iran-backed Assad regime). The UN deploys "peacekeepers" there, but they've never actually succeeded in preventing rocket attacks on Israel. The area's strategic importance is undeniable—it’s a high point surrounded by mostly flat terrain, overlooking critical water resources. To me, it seems obvious that whoever in the region is strong enough to hold it will hold it, international law notwithstanding.

If I were Israeli, I’d feel justified in flouting international law to maintain a military and surveillance presence in the Golan Heights. No one else is going to ensure Israel’s security. I’d also support expanding this presence as Syria continues to devolve into either a failed state or an Al-Qaeda-backed theocracy.

Where I agree with Jamie is that settling the area is entirely indefensible. It's a blatant provocation and a despicable negotiating tactic to claim more land in a potential future agreement. It’s also profoundly reckless to put civilian lives in what would inevitably be the focal point of future conflicts. And it makes it clear that Israel's "defensive" military posture is, at least currently, inextricably linked to the government's terrible expansionist agenda.

[CaptainFritz28]

Oh.

Hmm.

I did not realise that I was referring to posts from last October. I see this occurred because Fluminator bumped a different thread referring to those remarks.

@Captain F:
No need to reply to me on this after all - we will have discussed it last year and I did not notice that your remarks in question were from last October.

I will say, some of my statements from then seem foreign even to me now. It's funny how I look back and go "why in the world did I say that?" As the situation has further developed and I've seen Israel do some... unnecessary... things very clearly.

Not to say that I disagree with some of the principles that Israel cites for the war they fight, but I certainly disagree with the particulars of how they've gone about that.

[Jamiet99uk]

A consensus is emerging:
Israel is committing genocide in Gaza. Where is the action?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/dec/23/israel-gaza-war-genocide-where-is-the-action

[Octavious]

Is it true in nations other than the UK that "victory for Ukraine" is being redefined in the media? A year or two ago the bar was set at complete Russian withdrawal from all of Ukraine along with a boat load of reparations and Ukrainian membership of every organisation under the sun.

But the last few articles I've read have dropped most of this and are now talking about how merely stopping the Russian takeover of Ukraine will be a great victory.

In another fun bit of European propaganda, it seems to me that the Trump Presidency is being used to disguise the massive drop in European support for Ukraine. The European instinct of "when in doubt blame the Yanks" is alive and well.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/dec/21/russia-win-ukraine-vladimir-putin-europe

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/26/support-for-ukraine-russia-war-yougov-poll-survey

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

I saw this same shift in The Economist's reporting over the summer, where they rather purposefully shifted from advocating that Ukraine retake all its land to instead discuss the potential contours of a much less favourable negotiated settlement.

I don't think it was ever reasonable to think that Ukraine would re-take it's 2021 borders, let alone it's 2014 borders, and I lost respect for media outlets that couldn't find an honest way to communicate that. However, it's not surprising that former Ukraine cheerleaders have changed their tune in the wake of Trump's victory, which has surely devastated the Ukrainian negotiating position.

[Octavious]

In other news, several battalions of Afgan Taliban are being deployed on the Pakistani border, and heavy shelling has taken place.

Now, I confess I don't have a clue what the background to this is... but is anyone else concerned? The Taliban have proven themselves remarkably effective... Pakistan's military is... largely untested. I wouldn't want to place any bets if war did occur

[Jamiet99uk]

In other news, several battalions of Afgan Taliban are being deployed on the Pakistani border, and heavy shelling has taken place.

Now, I confess I don't have a clue what the background to this is... but is anyone else concerned? The Taliban have proven themselves remarkably effective... Pakistan's military is... largely untested. I wouldn't want to place any bets if war did occur

It sounds like an escalation of hostilities on a local level, but I would point out that the "battaions of Afghan Taliban" are in their positions because of the failure of Western intervention in the past.

[Jamiet99uk]

In other news, several battalions of Afgan Taliban are being deployed on the Pakistani border, and heavy shelling has taken place.

Now, I confess I don't have a clue what the background to this is... but is anyone else concerned? The Taliban have proven themselves remarkably effective... Pakistan's military is... largely untested. I wouldn't want to place any bets if war did occur

It sounds like an escalation of hostilities on a local level, but I would point out that the "battaions of Afghan Taliban" are in their positions because of the failure of Western intervention in the past.

To add to this, the mere existence of the Pakistani Taliban as a serious threat is entirely due to Pakistan's security policies in recent years, FWIW.

[learnedSloth]

In other news, several battalions of Afgan Taliban are being deployed on the Pakistani border, and heavy shelling has taken place.

Now, I confess I don't have a clue what the background to this is... but is anyone else concerned? The Taliban have proven themselves remarkably effective... Pakistan's military is... largely untested. I wouldn't want to place any bets if war did occur

FWIW: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_doctrine_of_Pakistan

[Octavious]

FWIW: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_doctrine_of_Pakistan

I'm not sure it's worth all that much. Pakistan's nuclear doctrine is very much focused on India. Afghanistan doesn't have the perceived conventional military advantage, and all of it is a lot closer. I guess that it's useful in the sense that it implies Pakistan is not particularly trigger happy when it comes to using nukes.

It sounds like an escalation of hostilities on a local level, but I would point out that the "battaions of Afghan Taliban" are in their positions because of the failure of Western intervention in the past.

Western failure, particularly from Biden but by no means him alone, have allowed this situation to develop. But this is very much a locally driven exercise in self harm