Mafia 1033 - The Next Generation [Hidden]

[damo666]

If as I think D2 was TvT (and hence D1 was TvTvT) there is little to be gleaned from VCA.

I disagree. While it is not mathemeatical data, we can connect dots, yes? SOME motivation was required for those votes.

Yes, and I think mainly to break the tie or choose between two unknowns.

I think most (if not all late voters were town).

People who didn't vote late are:

Day 1 arg, darg, Will (13m?), Red, Vec
Day 2 arg, Bona, Damo, Red

To me this makes both arg and Red look extremely suss and I expect Will or possibly Vecna is third man.

[ghug]

@darg my motivation was to save Bona (as you correctly point out) who I'm pretty confident is town.

Can you persuade me that bona is town?

I can try persuade you he is probably not scum but it relies on you believing me that I'm town.

Hypothesis: Bona is scum.

So, who are his partners?

arg - unlikely due to D1 voting
bozo - unlikely, D2 voting
darg - unlikely, D1 voting (and if you are scum you know Bona's alignmeny anyway)
ghug - unlikely, both days voting
Will - possible I suppose but does scum Will blatantly switch from bussing his teammate last minute?
Red - unlikely, D2 voting
Vecna - possible
damo - possible from ypov but you just have to trust that I'm town

So, from mpov the ONLY possible triple is Vecna, Will, Bona which on balance I would say is low possibility. I would flip Will sooner than Bona anyway.

Ergo (extremely heavy bussing notwithstanding) Bona is low probabilty scum and if he ain't scum he's town!

Persuaded?

Why do you always assume that nobody busses?

[bozotheclown]

Here is a play by play of the actions starting on page 43. Please comment on why you took the actions you did, if you took any.

There is a lot of raw data here, which I know can ge gotten on the bot. But I wanted it on one place... VCA and all...

Darg votes bona 3 dip, 2 bona, 2 damo, 1 just
Bozo votes Red 3 dip, 2 bona, 2 damo, 1 red, 1 just
Ghug votes vecna 3 dip, 1 bona, 2 damo, 1 red, 1 vecna, 1 just
Vecna votes argent 3 dip, 1 bona, 2 damo, 1 red, 1 vecna, 1 just, 1 argent
Diplomacy votes bona 3 dip, 2 bona, 1 damo, 1 red, 1 vecna, 1 just, 1 argent
Argent votes vecna 3 dip, 2 bona, 1 damo, 1 red, 2 vecna, 1 argent
Red votes bona 3 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 2 vecna, 1 argent
Jamiet votes Just 2 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 2 vecna, 1 argent, 1 just
Bona votes Dip 2 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 2 vecna, 1 argent, 1 just
Just votes Bona 2 dip, 4 bona, 1 red 2 vecna, 1 argent, 1 just
Ghug votes damo 2 dip, 4 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 1 argent, 1 just, 1 damo
Darg votes just 2 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 1 argent, 2 just, 1 damo
Jamiet votes Dip 3 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 1 argent, 1 just, 1 damo
Damo votes arg 2 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 2 argent, 1 just, 1 damo
Jamiet votes arg 1 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 3 argent, 1 just, 1 damo
Dargo votes arg 1 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 4 argent, 1 damo
amie votes dip 2 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 3 argent, 1 damo

AND THEN THE FUN STUFF STARTS

Damo votes dip 3 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 2 argent, 1 damo
*** Damo tied dip and bona, taking bona out of the lead. Why, damo?

Ghug votes arg 3 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 3 argent
***Makes a three way… why, ghug?

Jamie votes dip 3 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 3 argent
Darg votes dip 4 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 2 argent
*** I put dip in the lead

Ghug votes bona 4 dip, 4 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 1 argent
*** returns it to a tie… why, ghug?

Damo votes dip 4 dip, 4 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 1 argent
*** damo does one of those ‘momentum building’ things… to help bona?

Bozo votes bona 4 dip, 5 bona, 1 vecna, 1 argent
*** ends the tie

Vecna votes dip 5 dip, 5 bona, 1 vecna
*** ties the vote again. Why, vecna?

Just votes bon 5 dip, 5 bona, 1 vecna
*** just was already voting bona.

Just votes dip 6 dip, 4 bona, 1 vecna
*** just switches to dip. Was he confused about a bussing vote… and switched to the townie to end?
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
TL:DR

I think this makes bozo look gooder… but ghug, vecna, just, and damo look badder. Unfortunately that is too many scum.

I voted for Red Neurax because I thought he could be mafia, and I voted for
Bonatogether to break the tie because I thought he was more likely to be mafia than DiplomacyandWarfare.

[Bonatogether]

##vote will

haven't updated priors and don't intend to

[bozotheclown]

Done some vca and derived the following probabilities of being scum (by my own undisclosed method)

darg 50%
ghug 50%
Will 46%
arg 38%
Jamie 32%
Vecna 29%
bozo 26%
red 26%
Bona 3%

I'll take a stab at {darg, ghug, Will}

With Jamie gone revised guesses are:

ghug, darg 53%
Will 50%
arg, bozo, Red. Vec 36%

I wonder could Will have been drawn with the two newbies and not be able to resist his I'll protect the newbies post.

{Will, Red, arg} ??

I still maintain arg is the best vote today.

Red is best alternative.

Had you already ruled out Bonatogether/Just/Vecna, since Bonatogether seems to be at 0%?

[damo666]

Can you persuade me that bona is town?

I can try persuade you he is probably not scum but it relies on you believing me that I'm town.

Hypothesis: Bona is scum.

So, who are his partners?

arg - unlikely due to D1 voting
bozo - unlikely, D2 voting
darg - unlikely, D1 voting (and if you are scum you know Bona's alignmeny anyway)
ghug - unlikely, both days voting
Will - possible I suppose but does scum Will blatantly switch from bussing his teammate last minute?
Red - unlikely, D2 voting
Vecna - possible
damo - possible from ypov but you just have to trust that I'm town

So, from mpov the ONLY possible triple is Vecna, Will, Bona which on balance I would say is low possibility. I would flip Will sooner than Bona anyway.

Ergo (extremely heavy bussing notwithstanding) Bona is low probabilty scum and if he ain't scum he's town!

Persuaded?

Why do you always assume that nobody busses?

I don't. I do think bussing in certain situations is unlikely.

[damo666]

Done some vca and derived the following probabilities of being scum (by my own undisclosed method)

darg 50%
ghug 50%
Will 46%
arg 38%
Jamie 32%
Vecna 29%
bozo 26%
red 26%
Bona 3%

I'll take a stab at {darg, ghug, Will}

With Jamie gone revised guesses are:

ghug, darg 53%
Will 50%
arg, bozo, Red. Vec 36%

I wonder could Will have been drawn with the two newbies and not be able to resist his I'll protect the newbies post.

{Will, Red, arg} ??

I still maintain arg is the best vote today.

Red is best alternative.

Had you already ruled out Bonatogether/Just/Vecna, since Bonatogether seems to be at 0%?

Yes

[Red Neurax]

why

[dargorygel]

Here is a play by play of the actions starting on page 43. Please comment on why you took the actions you did, if you took any.

There is a lot of raw data here, which I know can ge gotten on the bot. But I wanted it on one place... VCA and all...

Darg votes bona 3 dip, 2 bona, 2 damo, 1 just
Bozo votes Red 3 dip, 2 bona, 2 damo, 1 red, 1 just
Ghug votes vecna 3 dip, 1 bona, 2 damo, 1 red, 1 vecna, 1 just
Vecna votes argent 3 dip, 1 bona, 2 damo, 1 red, 1 vecna, 1 just, 1 argent
Diplomacy votes bona 3 dip, 2 bona, 1 damo, 1 red, 1 vecna, 1 just, 1 argent
Argent votes vecna 3 dip, 2 bona, 1 damo, 1 red, 2 vecna, 1 argent
Red votes bona 3 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 2 vecna, 1 argent
Jamiet votes Just 2 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 2 vecna, 1 argent, 1 just
Bona votes Dip 2 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 2 vecna, 1 argent, 1 just
Just votes Bona 2 dip, 4 bona, 1 red 2 vecna, 1 argent, 1 just
Ghug votes damo 2 dip, 4 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 1 argent, 1 just, 1 damo
Darg votes just 2 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 1 argent, 2 just, 1 damo
Jamiet votes Dip 3 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 1 argent, 1 just, 1 damo
Damo votes arg 2 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 2 argent, 1 just, 1 damo
Jamiet votes arg 1 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 3 argent, 1 just, 1 damo
Dargo votes arg 1 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 4 argent, 1 damo
amie votes dip 2 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 3 argent, 1 damo

AND THEN THE FUN STUFF STARTS

Damo votes dip 3 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 2 argent, 1 damo
*** Damo tied dip and bona, taking bona out of the lead. Why, damo?

Ghug votes arg 3 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 3 argent
***Makes a three way… why, ghug?

Jamie votes dip 3 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 3 argent
Darg votes dip 4 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 2 argent
*** I put dip in the lead

Ghug votes bona 4 dip, 4 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 1 argent
*** returns it to a tie… why, ghug?

Damo votes dip 4 dip, 4 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 1 argent
*** damo does one of those ‘momentum building’ things… to help bona?

Bozo votes bona 4 dip, 5 bona, 1 vecna, 1 argent
*** ends the tie

Vecna votes dip 5 dip, 5 bona, 1 vecna
*** ties the vote again. Why, vecna?

Just votes bon 5 dip, 5 bona, 1 vecna
*** just was already voting bona.

Just votes dip 6 dip, 4 bona, 1 vecna
*** just switches to dip. Was he confused about a bussing vote… and switched to the townie to end?
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
TL:DR

I think this makes bozo look gooder… but ghug, vecna, just, and damo look badder. Unfortunately that is too many scum.

Why do I look bad, darg? I voted argent to tie it. I voted bona because I preferred Bona to Dip.

Why does Vecna look bad? You think he was protecting Bona that blatantly?

Why does Will look bad? Someone had to break the tie.

If for nothing else, because you said you were trying to stop someone else from tying.

I do realize that my reads are based on bona being scum, though.

[dargorygel]

@darg my motivation was to save Bona (as you correctly point out) who I'm pretty confident is town.

Can you persuade me that bona is town?

I can try persuade you he is probably not scum but it relies on you believing me that I'm town.

Hypothesis: Bona is scum.

So, who are his partners?

arg - unlikely due to D1 voting
bozo - unlikely, D2 voting
darg - unlikely, D1 voting (and if you are scum you know Bona's alignmeny anyway)
ghug - unlikely, both days voting
Will - possible I suppose but does scum Will blatantly switch from bussing his teammate last minute?
Red - unlikely, D2 voting
Vecna - possible
damo - possible from ypov but you just have to trust that I'm town

So, from mpov the ONLY possible triple is Vecna, Will, Bona which on balance I would say is low possibility. I would flip Will sooner than Bona anyway.

Ergo (extremely heavy bussing notwithstanding) Bona is low probabilty scum and if he ain't scum he's town!

Persuaded?

I understand you, at least... thanks, damo.

[dargorygel]

After a day of musing, and SOME responses... i would like to kill young Bona, but I realize that my initial reason was mostly gut... and my vote analysis is based solely on bona being scum. I.e. IF bona is scum, than the ideas I saw would make sense.

So I will back off. The ideas can come back if bona turns out to be scum.

[dargorygel]

Thanks for responding, thoe who did. You all went up two clicks on my absolutely worthless "not scum meter."

[dargorygel]

Which leads me back to argent.

Argent, do you still believe that scum are more likely to be wrong?

You did not answer the previous tome I enquired. Not sure if you have been on... but to help motivate;

##VOTE ARGENT

[Red Neurax]

Can you persuade me that bona is town?

I can try persuade you he is probably not scum but it relies on you believing me that I'm town.

Hypothesis: Bona is scum.

So, who are his partners?

arg - unlikely due to D1 voting
bozo - unlikely, D2 voting
darg - unlikely, D1 voting (and if you are scum you know Bona's alignmeny anyway)
ghug - unlikely, both days voting
Will - possible I suppose but does scum Will blatantly switch from bussing his teammate last minute?
Red - unlikely, D2 voting
Vecna - possible
damo - possible from ypov but you just have to trust that I'm town

So, from mpov the ONLY possible triple is Vecna, Will, Bona which on balance I would say is low possibility. I would flip Will sooner than Bona anyway.

Ergo (extremely heavy bussing notwithstanding) Bona is low probabilty scum and if he ain't scum he's town!

Persuaded?

I understand you, at least... thanks, damo.

this guy flips back and forth so much
previously he was saying its me now he says its unlikely to me
additionally, he makes many claims but all of them are paper thin - he has nothing to back it up

ex. saying vecna will bona are a possible trio but then says low possibility without any actual argument

i feel like hes trying to overcompensate

[damo666]

why

What's this to?

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

Imhere

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

The bot is a bit funny today

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

Jamo T

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

is anyone actually townreading Bozo?

I feel my reads and grasp of this game are still shite even with jamiet getting killed.

I did at some point but really havent found like

Anything memorable from him

So hes null

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

is anyone actually townreading Bozo?

I feel my reads and grasp of this game are still shite even with jamiet getting killed.

Bozo is very under the radar.

I want to kill Bona today I think but we should get done other wagons going because we just haven't put most of the game under any pressure yet.

So do you townread him or no?

Or null