Mafia 1033 - The Next Generation [Hidden]

[Red Neurax]

once again following the wagon how surprising

[Red Neurax]

##vote damo666

[damo666]

once again following the wagon how surprising

I was first vote. Hardly following.

I revise my last opinion you are clearly scum looking for a mk carelessly not properly reading the thread.

[dargorygel]

Here is a play by play of the actions starting on page 43. Please comment on why you took the actions you did, if you took any.

There is a lot of raw data here, which I know can ge gotten on the bot. But I wanted it on one place... VCA and all...

Darg votes bona 3 dip, 2 bona, 2 damo, 1 just
Bozo votes Red 3 dip, 2 bona, 2 damo, 1 red, 1 just
Ghug votes vecna 3 dip, 1 bona, 2 damo, 1 red, 1 vecna, 1 just
Vecna votes argent 3 dip, 1 bona, 2 damo, 1 red, 1 vecna, 1 just, 1 argent
Diplomacy votes bona 3 dip, 2 bona, 1 damo, 1 red, 1 vecna, 1 just, 1 argent
Argent votes vecna 3 dip, 2 bona, 1 damo, 1 red, 2 vecna, 1 argent
Red votes bona 3 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 2 vecna, 1 argent
Jamiet votes Just 2 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 2 vecna, 1 argent, 1 just
Bona votes Dip 2 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 2 vecna, 1 argent, 1 just
Just votes Bona 2 dip, 4 bona, 1 red 2 vecna, 1 argent, 1 just
Ghug votes damo 2 dip, 4 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 1 argent, 1 just, 1 damo
Darg votes just 2 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 1 argent, 2 just, 1 damo
Jamiet votes Dip 3 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 1 argent, 1 just, 1 damo
Damo votes arg 2 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 2 argent, 1 just, 1 damo
Jamiet votes arg 1 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 3 argent, 1 just, 1 damo
Dargo votes arg 1 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 4 argent, 1 damo
amie votes dip 2 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 3 argent, 1 damo

AND THEN THE FUN STUFF STARTS

Damo votes dip 3 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 2 argent, 1 damo
*** Damo tied dip and bona, taking bona out of the lead. Why, damo?

Ghug votes arg 3 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 3 argent
***Makes a three way… why, ghug?

Jamie votes dip 3 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 3 argent
Darg votes dip 4 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 2 argent
*** I put dip in the lead

Ghug votes bona 4 dip, 4 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 1 argent
*** returns it to a tie… why, ghug?

Damo votes dip 4 dip, 4 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 1 argent
*** damo does one of those ‘momentum building’ things… to help bona?

Bozo votes bona 4 dip, 5 bona, 1 vecna, 1 argent
*** ends the tie

Vecna votes dip 5 dip, 5 bona, 1 vecna
*** ties the vote again. Why, vecna?

Just votes bon 5 dip, 5 bona, 1 vecna
*** just was already voting bona.

Just votes dip 6 dip, 4 bona, 1 vecna
*** just switches to dip. Was he confused about a bussing vote… and switched to the townie to end?
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
TL:DR

I think this makes bozo look gooder… but ghug, vecna, just, and damo look badder. Unfortunately that is too many scum.

[damo666]

Done some vca and derived the following probabilities of being scum (by my own undisclosed method)

darg 50%
ghug 50%
Will 46%
arg 38%
Jamie 32%
Vecna 29%
bozo 26%
red 26%
Bona 3%

I'll take a stab at {darg, ghug, Will}

With Jamie gone revised guesses are:

ghug, darg 53%
Will 50%
arg, bozo, Red. Vec 36%

I wonder could Will have been drawn with the two newbies and not be able to resist his I'll protect the newbies post.

{Will, Red, arg} ??

I still maintain arg is the best vote today.

Red is best alternative.

[dargorygel]

I have a pretty clear idea which 3 are scum.

But I will wait to hear explanations of votes from all four.

Ok?

[damo666]

@darg my motivation was to save Bona (as you correctly point out) who I'm pretty confident is town.

[damo666]

If as I think D2 was TvT (and hence D1 was TvTvT) there is little to be gleaned from VCA.

Make WebDipMafia Great Again - Kill the lurkers

[damo666]

I have a pretty clear idea which 3 are scum.

But I will wait to hear explanations of votes from all four.

Ok?

Bold. You're saying scum is 3 of {ghug, Vecna, Will, me}, right?

Well I'm out so that makes it {ghug, Vecna, Will}. I have that as an allowable triple at about 4%.

[damo666]

If as I think D2 was TvT (and hence D1 was TvTvT) there is little to be gleaned from VCA.

Make WebDipMafia Great Again - Kill the lurkers

D1 postcount Bunny 8 arg 8
D2 postcount so far Bunny 9 argent 4

It's a no brainer.

[dargorygel]

I have a pretty clear idea which 3 are scum.

But I will wait to hear explanations of votes from all four.

Ok?

Bold. You're saying scum is 3 of {ghug, Vecna, Will, me}, right?

Well I'm out so that makes it {ghug, Vecna, Will}. I have that as an allowable triple at about 4%.

No, not exactly.
I'm waiting to hear more explainin' , Lucy!

[dargorygel]

If as I think D2 was TvT (and hence D1 was TvTvT) there is little to be gleaned from VCA.

Make WebDipMafia Great Again - Kill the lurkers

D1 postcount Bunny 8 arg 8
D2 postcount so far Bunny 9 argent 4

It's a no brainer.

Poor bunny... GM gets a bad end.

[dargorygel]

However, while I wait... I DO so declare:
##VOTE BONA

[dargorygel]

If as I think D2 was TvT (and hence D1 was TvTvT) there is little to be gleaned from VCA.

I disagree. While it is not mathemeatical data, we can connect dots, yes? SOME motivation was required for those votes.

[dargorygel]

@darg my motivation was to save Bona (as you correctly point out) who I'm pretty confident is town.

Can you persuade me that bona is town?

[dargorygel]

**is this the episode where everyone has slipped into another dimension, so the halls of the Enterprise are empty and quiet?**

[dargorygel]

I hope you're feeling better, will.

[ghug]

Here is a play by play of the actions starting on page 43. Please comment on why you took the actions you did, if you took any.

There is a lot of raw data here, which I know can ge gotten on the bot. But I wanted it on one place... VCA and all...

Darg votes bona 3 dip, 2 bona, 2 damo, 1 just
Bozo votes Red 3 dip, 2 bona, 2 damo, 1 red, 1 just
Ghug votes vecna 3 dip, 1 bona, 2 damo, 1 red, 1 vecna, 1 just
Vecna votes argent 3 dip, 1 bona, 2 damo, 1 red, 1 vecna, 1 just, 1 argent
Diplomacy votes bona 3 dip, 2 bona, 1 damo, 1 red, 1 vecna, 1 just, 1 argent
Argent votes vecna 3 dip, 2 bona, 1 damo, 1 red, 2 vecna, 1 argent
Red votes bona 3 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 2 vecna, 1 argent
Jamiet votes Just 2 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 2 vecna, 1 argent, 1 just
Bona votes Dip 2 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 2 vecna, 1 argent, 1 just
Just votes Bona 2 dip, 4 bona, 1 red 2 vecna, 1 argent, 1 just
Ghug votes damo 2 dip, 4 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 1 argent, 1 just, 1 damo
Darg votes just 2 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 1 argent, 2 just, 1 damo
Jamiet votes Dip 3 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 1 argent, 1 just, 1 damo
Damo votes arg 2 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 2 argent, 1 just, 1 damo
Jamiet votes arg 1 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 3 argent, 1 just, 1 damo
Dargo votes arg 1 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 4 argent, 1 damo
amie votes dip 2 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 3 argent, 1 damo

AND THEN THE FUN STUFF STARTS

Damo votes dip 3 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 2 argent, 1 damo
*** Damo tied dip and bona, taking bona out of the lead. Why, damo?

Ghug votes arg 3 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 3 argent
***Makes a three way… why, ghug?

Jamie votes dip 3 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 3 argent
Darg votes dip 4 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 2 argent
*** I put dip in the lead

Ghug votes bona 4 dip, 4 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 1 argent
*** returns it to a tie… why, ghug?

Damo votes dip 4 dip, 4 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 1 argent
*** damo does one of those ‘momentum building’ things… to help bona?

Bozo votes bona 4 dip, 5 bona, 1 vecna, 1 argent
*** ends the tie

Vecna votes dip 5 dip, 5 bona, 1 vecna
*** ties the vote again. Why, vecna?

Just votes bon 5 dip, 5 bona, 1 vecna
*** just was already voting bona.

Just votes dip 6 dip, 4 bona, 1 vecna
*** just switches to dip. Was he confused about a bussing vote… and switched to the townie to end?
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
TL:DR

I think this makes bozo look gooder… but ghug, vecna, just, and damo look badder. Unfortunately that is too many scum.

Why do I look bad, darg? I voted argent to tie it. I voted bona because I preferred Bona to Dip.

Why does Vecna look bad? You think he was protecting Bona that blatantly?

Why does Will look bad? Someone had to break the tie.

[damo666]

@darg my motivation was to save Bona (as you correctly point out) who I'm pretty confident is town.

Can you persuade me that bona is town?

I can try persuade you he is probably not scum but it relies on you believing me that I'm town.

Hypothesis: Bona is scum.

So, who are his partners?

arg - unlikely due to D1 voting
bozo - unlikely, D2 voting
darg - unlikely, D1 voting (and if you are scum you know Bona's alignmeny anyway)
ghug - unlikely, both days voting
Will - possible I suppose but does scum Will blatantly switch from bussing his teammate last minute?
Red - unlikely, D2 voting
Vecna - possible
damo - possible from ypov but you just have to trust that I'm town

So, from mpov the ONLY possible triple is Vecna, Will, Bona which on balance I would say is low possibility. I would flip Will sooner than Bona anyway.

Ergo (extremely heavy bussing notwithstanding) Bona is low probabilty scum and if he ain't scum he's town!

Persuaded?

[damo666]

@darg my motivation was to save Bona (as you correctly point out) who I'm pretty confident is town.

Can you persuade me that bona is town?

I can try persuade you he is probably not scum but it relies on you believing me that I'm town.

Hypothesis: Bona is scum.

So, who are his partners?

arg - unlikely due to D1 voting
bozo - unlikely, D2 voting
darg - unlikely, D1 voting (and if you are scum you know Bona's alignmeny anyway)
ghug - unlikely, both days voting
Will - possible I suppose but does scum Will blatantly switch from bussing his teammate last minute?
Red - unlikely, D2 voting
Vecna - possible
damo - possible from ypov but you just have to trust that I'm town

So, from mpov the ONLY possible triple is Vecna, Will, Bona which on balance I would say is low possibility. I would flip Will sooner than Bona anyway.

Ergo (extremely heavy bussing notwithstanding) Bona is low probabilty scum and if he ain't scum he's town!

Persuaded?

And as ghug points out Vecna's late Dip vote would be a bit blatant. So if it's {Bona, Will, Vecna} (remember that's the only Bona possible team from mpov) then BOTH Vecna AND Will blatantly saved scumBona. No way.

Bona is town.

Can we move on now please.