Mafia 1033 - The Next Generation [Hidden]

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

Aside from bozo's math... i still do not see the value of No Kill here, damo. What do we gain? We lose dats... discussion is stymied... what benefit is it?

The more town we have alive at night the greater the chance of a mafdeath

This is an interesting point, but nonetheless I have a few counterpoints to a no kill.

One has already been stated, that the tradeoff of statistical advantage for vote and reaction information is not worth it.

Similarly, trying to get statistical phaser advantage at night may be mathematically dubious, but more importantly a phaser kill is an eventuality loaded with so much WIFOM and so heavily dependent on the individuality of all game agents that it is not worth basing a strategy around. It is like a lottery ticket: a great windfall but not something to base our finances on.

Finally, I think that whenever there is a no kill, for example through a tie, it is injurious to town morale. Mafia is a game of people more than numbers and it is better to be wrong and miskill town and keep the blue team engaged and interested in the game than to chase some mild abstract advantage.

Ok i dont know why but

This feels like its trying to be like overhelpful

Which isnt necessarily scummy but it feel disingenuous

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

The more town we have alive at night the greater the chance of a mafdeath

This is an interesting point, but nonetheless I have a few counterpoints to a no kill.

One has already been stated, that the tradeoff of statistical advantage for vote and reaction information is not worth it.

Similarly, trying to get statistical phaser advantage at night may be mathematically dubious, but more importantly a phaser kill is an eventuality loaded with so much WIFOM and so heavily dependent on the individuality of all game agents that it is not worth basing a strategy around. It is like a lottery ticket: a great windfall but not something to base our finances on.

Finally, I think that whenever there is a no kill, for example through a tie, it is injurious to town morale. Mafia is a game of people more than numbers and it is better to be wrong and miskill town and keep the blue team engaged and interested in the game than to chase some mild abstract advantage.

I like this post, luke foodwalker.

Do you think that damo is scumo for wanting a no kill?

Darg is town but we knew that already

Also i dont think damo would advocate for it as scum when it can very easily be shot down so i think damo is also town for this

[Vecna]

will be copying all my takes/reads

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

will be copying all my takes/reads

Guys its proof im getting better at reads

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

I disagree with your bozo read though. Theres practically no mechs so bozo is att a loss for words

Im going to let him cook for a bit with reads then ill make an assessment

[foodcoats]

The more town we have alive at night the greater the chance of a mafdeath

This is an interesting point, but nonetheless I have a few counterpoints to a no kill.

One has already been stated, that the tradeoff of statistical advantage for vote and reaction information is not worth it.

Similarly, trying to get statistical phaser advantage at night may be mathematically dubious, but more importantly a phaser kill is an eventuality loaded with so much WIFOM and so heavily dependent on the individuality of all game agents that it is not worth basing a strategy around. It is like a lottery ticket: a great windfall but not something to base our finances on.

Finally, I think that whenever there is a no kill, for example through a tie, it is injurious to town morale. Mafia is a game of people more than numbers and it is better to be wrong and miskill town and keep the blue team engaged and interested in the game than to chase some mild abstract advantage.

I like this post, luke foodwalker.

Do you think that damo is scumo for wanting a no kill?

No, I think it is something damo could talk about from either alignment.

[foodcoats]

Hey everybody. Who is scum?

Yes I think he is.

Why do you think Diplomacy&Warfare is scum?

[foodcoats]

This is an interesting point, but nonetheless I have a few counterpoints to a no kill.

One has already been stated, that the tradeoff of statistical advantage for vote and reaction information is not worth it.

Similarly, trying to get statistical phaser advantage at night may be mathematically dubious, but more importantly a phaser kill is an eventuality loaded with so much WIFOM and so heavily dependent on the individuality of all game agents that it is not worth basing a strategy around. It is like a lottery ticket: a great windfall but not something to base our finances on.

Finally, I think that whenever there is a no kill, for example through a tie, it is injurious to town morale. Mafia is a game of people more than numbers and it is better to be wrong and miskill town and keep the blue team engaged and interested in the game than to chase some mild abstract advantage.

I like this post, luke foodwalker.

Do you think that damo is scumo for wanting a no kill?

Darg is town but we knew that already

Also i dont think damo would advocate for it as scum when it can very easily be shot down so i think damo is also town for this

Will, what was it before this that made you think darg was town?

[foodcoats]

thanks mate

Welcome buddy hoser.

[bozotheclown]

This is a cruel and unnecessary lie and I hope that you die on Saturday.

I spent some time reviewing my poor performance in the last game I played, and despite how much I helped the mafia on the last day, we still would have won if you and BunnyGo had RBed Fluminator and worcej when I said I would go along with it. Why did you lock in your RB vote on me an hour before EOD?

You really want to do this?

My opinion of your town play was already low, but I didn't believe you'd play that poorly as town, so Occam's razor said you were scum. I apologize for overestimating you. I won't do it again. I figured at that point that my words weren't moving anyone and that locking my vote could prove my sincerity. Even that didn't work on Glitter, so it wouldn't have gone any better if I'd been right, but nothing else was working, so I don't really fault myself for trying it.

If the question is why I doubted you, this was explained quite thoroughly at the time. Why are you trying to pick a flight?

I just wanted to understand what you were thinking at the time. I was coming around to the possibility that you and BunnyGo were both town because Fluminator and worcej were not very engaged, and I was waiting to see what would happen at EOD, but then you both locked in your vote. The bottom line is that my getting you mis-killed that day cost us the game, but you weren't right about me either.

[bozotheclown]

I believe it may be beneficial to vote no kill with this format.

##vote no kill

Ignoring the possibility of a mafia getting eliminated at night, at 10-3, we have 3 mis-kills available, but at 9-3 going into D2, we would only have 2 mis-kills (and one optional no-kill), so I don't think it is worth the risk of only having 2 mis-kills for the possibility of having one more night down the road.

Why ignore it? The possibility of a night mafia death is (I would say) at least 0.25.

It's probably marginal.

I'll keep at no kill for the time being but if it doesn't fly will drop it. It may be more valuable on later nights.

I was ignoring it only for the purpose of counting available mis-kills.

[bozotheclown]

In fact... that is for everyone. Would you have gone along with the plan?

One mafia being taken out at night would not have given us another mis-kill, so I think it would have been better to go for more than one.

[bozotheclown]

Why ignore it? The possibility of a night mafia death is (I would say) at least 0.25.

It's probably marginal.

I'll keep at no kill for the time being but if it doesn't fly will drop it. It may be more valuable on later nights.

Aside from bozo's math... i still do not see the value of No Kill here, damo. What do we gain? We lose dats... discussion is stymied... what benefit is it?

The more town we have alive at night the greater the chance of a mafdeath

I don't think that is accurate.

[bozotheclown]

in other words; the longer the game lasts, the more statistically unlikely it is town can time their phaser correctly

I don't think this is accurate either.

[ghug]

I believe it may be beneficial to vote no kill with this format.

##vote no kill

Ignoring the possibility of a mafia getting eliminated at night, at 10-3, we have 3 mis-kills available, but at 9-3 going into D2, we would only have 2 mis-kills (and one optional no-kill), so I don't think it is worth the risk of only having 2 mis-kills for the possibility of having one more night down the road.

Why ignore it? The possibility of a night mafia death is (I would say) at least 0.25.

It's probably marginal.

I'll keep at no kill for the time being but if it doesn't fly will drop it. It may be more valuable on later nights.

You assume worst case for this sort of thing.

[bozotheclown]

Hey everybody. Who is scum?

Yes I think he is.

Why do you think Diplomacy&Warfare is scum?

I think Jamie was saying that "Who" is scum.

[dargorygel]

Do some of you know Red?

Red, have you played here, and I forgot?

Ajso... popcorn watching our math folk do math.

[bozotheclown]

in other words; the longer the game lasts, the more statistically unlikely it is town can time their phaser correctly

What exactly do you mean by this?

I think what does decrease the possibility of the mafia hitting an activated phaser is a town getting eliminated without using their phaser, so the optimal use of the phasers might be to have them randomly activated over the first 3 or 4 nights, which could be approximated with everyone generating their own random number.

[bozotheclown]

Do some of you know Red?

Red, have you played here, and I forgot?

Ajso... popcorn watching our math folk do math.

He said in the sign up thread that he did not know how mafia worked here.

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

Fwiw, I am opposed to a mass reveal this early. We'd give up our phasers for one sure kill. I'd rather hope we can catch more than that.

Darg, what did you mean by this? What would a mass reveal be in this setup? How would it guarantee a kill of mafia and obviate the other phasers in play?

During the setup, there was a proposal to have a mass claim and all activate our phasers... at that time mafia had a required NK. So at the cost of ALL of our phasers, we would have killed one scum. I found the proposal odd in the setup.

I would not have gone along with it.

Would you have gone along with it?

@food its mainly vibes but I think this post solidified him as town to me