Mafia 91 - Battle for the Sunset Strip - GAME THREAD [Hidden]

[ghug]

Convenient that you're voting with Balki, huh?

[BunnyGo]

This kind of wagon composition always catches scum:

brainbomb (2) SpiritoftheRadio worcej
FlaviusAetius (2) GlitterBomb Yoyoyozo
Spartaculous (2) Chaqa FlaviusAetius
JustAGuyNamedWill (2) BunnyGo Balki Bartokomous
Yoyoyozo (2) damo666 Spartaculous
SpiritoftheRadio (2) brainbomb ghug
ghug (1) Vecna

Even better.

Do you think he was joking that 0 wagons were scum? Seems like something he’d do

[BunnyGo]

Convenient that you're voting with Balki, huh?

Honestly?

I’m just trying to find scum.

I’ve stated at least 3 positions already. I think I’m correct on them.

[BunnyGo]

This kind of wagon composition always catches scum:

brainbomb (2) SpiritoftheRadio worcej
FlaviusAetius (2) GlitterBomb Yoyoyozo
Spartaculous (2) Chaqa FlaviusAetius
JustAGuyNamedWill (2) BunnyGo Balki Bartokomous
Yoyoyozo (2) damo666 Spartaculous
SpiritoftheRadio (2) brainbomb ghug
ghug (1) Vecna

Even better.

Do you think he was joking that 0 wagons were scum? Seems like something he’d do

Ok…

Pairs voting for known town (and spirit for now since he’s our only claimed rose)

(Glitter, yo-yo)
Hmm…two known town were voting Sparta and are shot.
(Bunny, Balki)
(Brain, ghug)


So positing that my previous reads are correct (damo, yo-yo town…but yo-yo is trying hard to shake me of that).

It leaves Sparta looking really badly.

Glitter doesn’t look good.

Vecna is vanity. Which is…a thing? I don’t get why he didn’t want to push, but I can conceive of it as either alignment.

Worcej voting with spirit…Aldo he and brain have been going at each other all game but never very hard. Just hard enough.

And (ghug, brain)…but I’m towning ghug too for other reasons, and I’ve already posited a read on brain.

So something in:

Sparta-Glitter-Vecna.

Possible worcej. Longshot brain.

[BunnyGo]

I'm trying to get a sense of what is the proper distribution between guns and roses the town should want to have between them. To do this, I decided to do a little modeling of a simplified version of the game. I assume the following:

* Everyone survives day 1, so we go into night 1 at 11 town and 3 mafia.
* All mafia choose a night-1 gun.
* All town choose either a night-1 gun (with probability p) or a night-1 rose (with probability 1-p). (So: after night 1, all mechanics are exhausted.)
* The mafia pick 4 town at random to kill on night 1 (1 factional kill and 3 from their guns).
* With probability q, each town with a gun shoots at a randomly-chosen mafia, and thus has probability 1-q of shooting at a randomly-chosen town.

q represents the probability of a townsperson correctly guessing that a different player is mafia. At the start of the game, this should be 3 / 13 = 23% (there is no information to pick between any other players). Of course, we would hope that q > 23% as the game goes on.

For all combinations of p in {0.1,0.2,...0.8,0.9} and q in {0.23,0.25,0.3,0.35,0.4}, I ran 1000 simulations in R and recorded the average number of town and mafia remaining after all of the carnage of night 1. Here is the resulting table:

i.imgur.com/a/QNlMUpv

Here is how to read this: if all town pick a gun with probability p = 0.4, and each town with a gun has probability q = 0.35 of correctly identifying mafia, then we expect there to be about 8.991 surviving town and 1.771 surviving mafia after night 1.

A few obvious critiques you can make of all of this:

(1) I do not advocate for a tied kill on Day 1; I am merely choosing this to simplify my analysis.

(2) Of course, it is possible for mafia to pick roses.

(3) And of course, there are more nights to choose between than just night 1.

But I just wanted to get my hands dirty with some data. I'm tired, so I'll come back to this tomorrow and try to make sense of what this data tells me in terms of how to approach this particular game.

(Also, off topic, but when I tried to upload this as an attachment to the discussion board, I received the error message "Sorry, the board attachment quota has been reached.". Has anyone else had this happen?)

I am patting myself on the back for reading this fully.

This is a lot of numbers and words to write without having any actual conclusion.

@Spartaculous, I am curious -- do you think that players are going to do what you ask them to do? I find the exercise you purport to do here interesting, but I feel like you and I both know it will accomplish nothing, because people are not going to give you agency over their choice. So, what is the point of all this work you purport to be doing?

Scumchat/coaching?

[BunnyGo]

Okay, caught up.

I feel good about Will and Glitter and maybe the whole Bomb family. I also like worcej here.

##vote spartaculous

Just really hard for me to believe that they thought the probability exercise would produce anything actionable, given the advantages of keeping selections secret and the probability that folks will not give up their agency. So it just looks like activity for the sake of looking active, which is more likely to come from someone who is pretending to engage.

Also, this post just reeks of Steve Buscemi:

Does anyone have any thoughts as to how we should approach the gun/rose decision?

Then this…followed by a progression to “let’s not kill Sparta today”

[BunnyGo]

Your sparta case was how you play as scum And you got called for it and then dropped it in a timely manner

I like your suspicion of me. I think that comes from a Town!Brain place.

Likely makes Vecna Town too.

Fascinating.

[BunnyGo]

Argh, I am getting pulled into a thing, and likely won't be able to post at EON either, so leaving a legacy post now.

Here is my best attempt to sort the roster. Most likely to be Town on top, and least likely to be Town on bottom. I’ve divided slots into tiers, but tried to sort within each tier as well:

Feeling Very Good About
Brainbomb
Vecna
GlitterBomb
BunnyGo

I Just Don’t Know
Worcej
Spartaculous
Chaqa

More Likely Scum Than Random
Damo
Flavius
Spirit
Ghug
Yoyo

I would not vote for anyone in the Top Tier and I would defend them. I feel very <snip>

Vecna-Sparta fits here quite well with his progression and slipping in a townread of Vecna for it

[BunnyGo]

Some random comments that probably don't lead anywhere:

FlaviusAetius:
I felt like Flav said very little of importance in D1. A decent amount of criticizing other's arguments with one-sentence insults. Took his wagon *extremely* personally.

Vecna: Seemed really unsure what to do. Tried to start a ghug wagon that was clearly going nowhere. It felt like the way I would play as a confused townie. Reappeared at the end to (at various times) push Will, Yoyo, and Chaqa. It felt like his confidence shifted a lot.

Yoyoyozo: Did basically nothing in D1. Highlights:
- Was one of the last to make a first post
- Didn't actually make a meaningful post for another 7 hours, immediately votes for Flav.
- Only meaningful contribution was a plea for a tied vote (with a threat of violence to enforce it).-
At the time, we had tied wagons between Flav and brainbomb. I don't think that town would generically want a tie. Would mafia want a tie? Yes, if one of their own was in on the tie.

So, if Yoyo is mafia, then probably at least one of Flav and brainbomb is mafia... but then you have to grapple with the fact that both Flav and bb voted for Yoyo. That's a lot of bussing to wrestle with.

damo: Didn't say all that much. However, what he did was mechanics-centric. I think he was asking good and important questions that others weren't. Town points for damo.

Balki: He has been kind to me, which I appreciate. However, other people seem suspicious of him. Need to make sure he is not pocketing me.

Chaqa: Not a fan of his me/Will wagon suggestion.

Glitterbomb: I generically want to townread her, but on reread, I think there are some concerning bits. I don't like her initial Chaqa vote - it seemed to be based on misreading a joke. She also was the key third vote on Will to break up the giant tie. Her late Will-Yoyo-Will switch was a bit weird.

Spirit: everyone is out to get Spirit. Pushed for Yoyoyozo over Will at the end.

I don't know what to make of the Bunny/brainbomb drama. ghug seems townish to me. worcej probably epsilon townish.

This is the only post where Sparta mentions Balki by name except for:

1) post mentioning his stats about when people post
2) responding to brain saying yes shooting Balki

[brainbomb]

Well its fairly simple that he is either shutting me down or propping worcej up. Or both. Whether he agrees with that my questions should be asked or not he attempted to shut it down by seconding the argument

What's a response to that question that makes worcej look bad in your mind?

Very complicated to actually answer without a perfect memory of who had posted at the time. If there was anything there that concerned either.

“Who among the non posters would normally be pretty chatty by this point?”
Would apply to Balki as he hadnt posted at the time
Yoyo isnt normally very chatty
We know that chaqa, damo and flavius probably dont apply here as damo isnt chatty and the others are dead town. We know worcej isnt super chatty usually. And bunny had already been talking. Glitter isnt super chatty.

So this question would not have been an issue to Balki.

Who among the people who have posted less than 3 times but have at least posted do you find out of character?

This would be irksome to worcej who hadnt posted and to balki at this stage so if both were scum this could be a gripe. This wouldnt apply to bunny but maybe to yoyo but yoyo wouldnt be that out of character for this nor would damo.

Who among the people with more than 5 posts do you think are scummy?
This post is open ended enough that if remaining scum teamate was ghug or bunny this would apply, maybe not to worcej but enough balki might want someone like bunny to be seen positively with a head of steam. This wouldnt really apply to vecna as he was not a high poster but was flamboyant.

[BunnyGo]

This wall is a major towntell.

Why? Because Glitterbomb is scared of being associated with me. Looking bad for defending me.

Genuine fear of my slot potentially being scum and potentially smearing their reputation.

Scum would not act this way, unless we were both scum

This read from Vecna seems to come from a town place. I dig it.

Literally the only other post (besides vote counts and those already mentioned) where Balki names Vecna.

[brainbomb]

Well im not gonna be able to find bunnys teammate until people start voting. But bunny is mafia and thats a great place to start

[Vecna]

I feel like you a pretending to be learning something and you dont actually care about it lol

doesnt this attitude ever get boring?

Vecna getting tired of me cracking the bat on his scum partner repeatedly

that was aimed at me, wtf you talking about here.

[BunnyGo]

doesnt this attitude ever get boring?

Vecna getting tired of me cracking the bat on his scum partner repeatedly

that was aimed at me, wtf you talking about here.

A wild Vecna appears!

[BunnyGo]

Well im not gonna be able to find bunnys teammate until people start voting. But bunny is mafia and thats a great place to start

Try again.

What do you make of ghug&damo voting our only claimed rose?

[damo666]

We're claiming who chose what, not which nights they have it.

People should explicitly claim which they took. Brain says a lot of things and I don't put a lot of stock in them until it's time to make a serious claim.

I'm not talking about the night the item is active I'm talking about when the claim was made.

You speculated that he had an N1 rose...

Yoyo was speculating he had an unspent rose, I was merely pointing out the possbilty since the claim was made before day 2.

[damo666]

@ghug and damo

Can you explain your votes on our only rose claimant?

No

I can't explain ghug's either.

[Vecna]

Darg tells me that a person with a rose doesnt learn if they got attacked and that people with roses survive multiple Attacks

Assuming both mafia still have a gun they have three kills tonight and only
Two people who could survive an attack.

No urgency to claim or start that whole deal. We should play and kill vecna instead

Your attack on me feels really rather forced.

If I was scum with Balki, why on earth would I walk back my read at a moment when there was zero pressure on him?

The dude just played to his scum meta the first half of day1 and then his play became a lot more fluid.

That and he tried to buddy me hard.

A more interesting line of thought atm is;

Was he softly protecting yoyo EOD1? ("id really like to see if im right on Will")

Was he white knighting Worcej when I talked about my suspicions there, or potentially protecting him.

[brainbomb]

Sometimes the greater clarity comes from the not knowing than from the knowing.

Havent tried it that way before but hey new ground broken

[brainbomb]

Well im not gonna be able to find bunnys teammate until people start voting. But bunny is mafia and thats a great place to start

Try again.

What do you make of ghug&damo voting our only claimed rose?

Seems like spirit is not playing well enough to rise above what should be a clearing claim.