Mafia 91 - Battle for the Sunset Strip - GAME THREAD [Hidden]

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

itd be funny if Brain and Glitter were scum together

Also Brain i know you’d feel naturally inclined to defend Glitter but I think Glitter needs to explain how they operate this game on their own in order for us to fairly assess them

This isn’t to say that what you said above was a ‘defense’, just like a personal PSA XD

[brainbomb]

I completely agree. Most of the people hard pushing her early last game were all town. Most of the people pushing her late last game were scum. They needed a miskill and kept hovering between killing her or reassuring themselves she was lhf.
In the end scum had very little chance of miskilling her because she did a good enough job on her own at sharing notes and showing a process. She set the bar higher for herself in that

[brainbomb]

1. Brainbomb

2. Ghug - has posted a bit and voted, not overly invested yet. null

3. BunnyGo - has posted a good amount and seems extremely skeptical of me. Null but activity is more in par with his town meta.

4. Glitterbomb - busy at work I assume. Null

5. Chaqa - has posted and pledged he will Shoot someone; worcej found that towny. Null

6. damo - no posts
7. Flavius no posts

8. JustAGuyNamedWill- has posted and seemed to imply he couldnt find the game thread. Has chirped up a bit more expressing skepticism of sparta and glitter. Moving him back to null.

9. Yoyoyozo - no posts

10. SpiritoftheRadio - a flurry of activity overnight, formed some quick scumreads. Seems to find bunny suspicious. Spirit is probably not as awkward as he was in spy vs spy game. Slight townlean

11. Spartaculous - asking theoretical questions about the setup and gimmicks. Voted damo early same as prior game. could be a decent thing to ask about since he seems to wonder if gimmicks work; wondering if he considers voting damo a gimmick? Null

12. worcej - had alot to say. Had some reads. Finds me scummy and said I seem
Nervous; and that he thinks my posts are too wordy. Probably town.

13. Balki no posts

14. Vecna TALKS LIKE THIS: processing : result is Vecna is funny. Chaqa finds it annoying and ghug seems to find it scummy due to the julius ceasar meta. Town as none of his takes felt manipulative

[Balki Bartokomous]

Hello.

[brainbomb]

Balki arrives

[Balki Bartokomous]

Does anyone have any thoughts as to how we should approach the gun/rose decision?

Just going to work my way through the thread. This post pings me right off the bat. It feels cowardly.

[Balki Bartokomous]

Does anyone have any thoughts as to how we should approach the gun/rose decision?

Individually

I literally just read the setup, so haven't thought deeply about this yet, but this seems right to me. There is just too much value in keeping this information secret, which I think will more often than not outweigh the value of coordination.

[Balki Bartokomous]

Brains scum. This isn’t a gimmick or bit by me. He’s struggling scum already.

Trying to figure out how you’re getting there. To me, hes digging in and making observations. He explained why he was willing to go rose…. I think it’d be silly for us to trust that alone and we should for sure have others who are willing to do the same. I’ve never played with him - so what are you seeing?

I’m also not used to a more quiet/reserved Bunny, so that’s throwing me.

He’s playing himself. But too early.

His first post was an awkward version of himself.

His second long post was too serious too early with weird punctuation and scanning. Read like he was trying to shake early sillier votes by me and ghug for the first post.

He said it’d be hard for him to read you, but I think your presence threw him off.

This is pinging me too. This just feels rushed and insincere for page 2 or whatever.

[BunnyGo]

She would protect me as either alignment being my wife and all

INITIATING USER QUERY MODE

WOULD THIS NOT BE ALL THE MORE REASON TO BE SUSPICIOUS OF POTENTIAL DEVIOUS BEHAVIOUR? TO TRY AND REVEAL YOUR POTENTIAL SCURVY NATURE? TO CATCH YOU IN THE ACT?

I DO NOT TAKE NOTE OF COMPETATIVE BEHAVIOUR IN THE DISCUSSED STATEMENTS.

IN LAYMAN FLESHBAG TERMINOLOGY: WOULD YOUR WIFE NOT BE VERY DRIVEN TO WANT TO CATCH YOU IN THE OFFCHANCE THAT YOU ARE SCUM IF SHE WERE TOWN?

She would be sympathetic to keeping me alive as most people here arent very friendly and shes only playing because of me. She would be inclined to say she outsmarted me and stayed off my radar. Now if her whole
Team was pushing for me to die and I was gunning them all down she would probably just stop talking and let me die.

Its too early to know yet if thats all a possibility. She would defend me early to win my trust and to have someone around she actually likes if shes mafia

Fuck you!! We’re plenty friendly!

[BunnyGo]

I think this game can be broken

I assume we probably shouldn’t communicate our picks for guns/roses?

Really? How?

Saying it out loud wouldn’t really help it out so probably wont explain it

So then…it *can’t* be broken…

Cool story

[Balki Bartokomous]

I'm trying to get a sense of what is the proper distribution between guns and roses the town should want to have between them. To do this, I decided to do a little modeling of a simplified version of the game. I assume the following:

* Everyone survives day 1, so we go into night 1 at 11 town and 3 mafia.
* All mafia choose a night-1 gun.
* All town choose either a night-1 gun (with probability p) or a night-1 rose (with probability 1-p). (So: after night 1, all mechanics are exhausted.)
* The mafia pick 4 town at random to kill on night 1 (1 factional kill and 3 from their guns).
* With probability q, each town with a gun shoots at a randomly-chosen mafia, and thus has probability 1-q of shooting at a randomly-chosen town.

q represents the probability of a townsperson correctly guessing that a different player is mafia. At the start of the game, this should be 3 / 13 = 23% (there is no information to pick between any other players). Of course, we would hope that q > 23% as the game goes on.

For all combinations of p in {0.1,0.2,...0.8,0.9} and q in {0.23,0.25,0.3,0.35,0.4}, I ran 1000 simulations in R and recorded the average number of town and mafia remaining after all of the carnage of night 1. Here is the resulting table:

i.imgur.com/a/QNlMUpv

Here is how to read this: if all town pick a gun with probability p = 0.4, and each town with a gun has probability q = 0.35 of correctly identifying mafia, then we expect there to be about 8.991 surviving town and 1.771 surviving mafia after night 1.

A few obvious critiques you can make of all of this:

(1) I do not advocate for a tied kill on Day 1; I am merely choosing this to simplify my analysis.

(2) Of course, it is possible for mafia to pick roses.

(3) And of course, there are more nights to choose between than just night 1.

But I just wanted to get my hands dirty with some data. I'm tired, so I'll come back to this tomorrow and try to make sense of what this data tells me in terms of how to approach this particular game.

(Also, off topic, but when I tried to upload this as an attachment to the discussion board, I received the error message "Sorry, the board attachment quota has been reached.". Has anyone else had this happen?)

I am patting myself on the back for reading this fully.

This is a lot of numbers and words to write without having any actual conclusion.

@Spartaculous, I am curious -- do you think that players are going to do what you ask them to do? I find the exercise you purport to do here interesting, but I feel like you and I both know it will accomplish nothing, because people are not going to give you agency over their choice. So, what is the point of all this work you purport to be doing?

[Balki Bartokomous]

I think this game can be broken

I assume we probably shouldn’t communicate our picks for guns/roses?

I like this post.

I have these same two feelings, even though I recognize they may be in conflict.

[BunnyGo]

If you force glitter to think about the game they usually identify some mafia in their process. They also tend to drift back to the paranoid choices of who they think is trying to sew confusion and chaos; and they struggle to graduate from them.
Glitter mistakes talking a lot and being petulant for being high powered mafia that is pulling the wool over peoples eyes. But glitter isnt that town this game because they havent gotten annoyed enough yet to start trying.

But theyre also at work all day so im giving a pass for now.

I’d also expect her to have learned from last game

[BunnyGo]

Hello.

Hey handsome!

[Balki Bartokomous]

I think this game can be broken

I assume we probably shouldn’t communicate our picks for guns/roses?

It does seem like the optimal play is 50/50 split of town taking guns and roses, then we get a gunner to shoot a rose holder and we create a bunch of town clears.

I don't follow your math or your assumptions. Please explain further.

[BunnyGo]

Does anyone have any thoughts as to how we should approach the gun/rose decision?

Just going to work my way through the thread. This post pings me right off the bat. It feels cowardly.

Yes.

[Balki Bartokomous]

wait, two questions

1) can vig kills be used during the night?
2) If a vig kill targets a person with a rose, do we get an announcement that we heard the shot or not?

##call gm

I realize now that I did not realize roses dont work during the day, they work at night. Odd to me since we have to choose a day for the rose to work on, but ok. Maybe it isn't as easy to game as I thought

Okay...never mind, you retracted immediately. Townish vibes for me.

[brainbomb]

If you force glitter to think about the game they usually identify some mafia in their process. They also tend to drift back to the paranoid choices of who they think is trying to sew confusion and chaos; and they struggle to graduate from them.
Glitter mistakes talking a lot and being petulant for being high powered mafia that is pulling the wool over peoples eyes. But glitter isnt that town this game because they havent gotten annoyed enough yet to start trying.

But theyre also at work all day so im giving a pass for now.

I’d also expect her to have learned from last game

I think her accusation that you are not the same as last game is accurate. You havent been in peoples faces asking questions. Instead youve mostly clung to a preliminary gut read. I dont think her scumreading you is motivated out of a need to protect me however, as its about familiarity and perception.

There is nothing to learn from. She has no reason to assume that after last game you are auto town just because you showed up to play.

[BunnyGo]

If you force glitter to think about the game they usually identify some mafia in their process. They also tend to drift back to the paranoid choices of who they think is trying to sew confusion and chaos; and they struggle to graduate from them.
Glitter mistakes talking a lot and being petulant for being high powered mafia that is pulling the wool over peoples eyes. But glitter isnt that town this game because they havent gotten annoyed enough yet to start trying.

But theyre also at work all day so im giving a pass for now.

I’d also expect her to have learned from last game

I think her accusation that you are not the same as last game is accurate. You havent been in peoples faces asking questions. Instead youve mostly clung to a preliminary gut read. I dont think her scumreading you is motivated out of a need to protect me however, as its about familiarity and perception.

There is nothing to learn from. She has no reason to assume that after last game you are auto town just because you showed up to play.

Why’re you making this about me?

I said I’d expect HER to play differently.

Strange post brain. Not good.

[BunnyGo]

And it’s not even 24 hours into day 1…brains uptight