Mafia 91 - Battle for the Sunset Strip - GAME THREAD [Hidden]

[SpiritoftheRadio]

I think this game can be broken

I assume we probably shouldn’t communicate our picks for guns/roses?

It does seem like the optimal play is 50/50 split of town taking guns and roses, then we get a gunner to shoot a rose holder and we create a bunch of town clears.

[SpiritoftheRadio]

wait, two questions

1) can vig kills be used during the night?
2) If a vig kill targets a person with a rose, do we get an announcement that we heard the shot or not?

##call gm

I realize now that I did not realize roses dont work during the day, they work at night. Odd to me since we have to choose a day for the rose to work on, but ok. Maybe it isn't as easy to game as I thought

[SpiritoftheRadio]

Welcome to the jungle, everyone!

Ur gunna diiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiieeeeeeeeeeee

##Vote Bunny

[SpiritoftheRadio]

because someone had to. I assume bunny was hoping for that to happen

[SpiritoftheRadio]

wait, two questions

1) can vig kills be used during the night?
2) If a vig kill targets a person with a rose, do we get an announcement that we heard the shot or not?

##call gm

I realize now that I did not realize roses dont work during the day, they work at night. Odd to me since we have to choose a day for the rose to work on, but ok. Maybe it isn't as easy to game as I thought

After reading the set up a 3rd time, my comprehension is now at the level of a 5th grader. Question 1 is answered, they can ONLY kill at night. My question on 2 remains. My guess is we get nothing and don't know if the mafia kill or a vig shot happened to each player and we just have a body(ies) and their droppings to work with.

[SpiritoftheRadio]

for those who care, i chose a rose. Dunno how active I'll be and at what times, but I will at least ensure we dont face the ultimate shame loss

[ghug]

INITIATING BEHAVIOUR PATTERN ANALYSIS PROTOCOL

ANALYSING USERID "BRAINBOMB"

AVAILABLE DATAPOINTS: LIMITED

LANGUAGE PATTERN DETECTED: SOMETHING RESEMBLING US-ENGLISH

MOOD PATTERN DETECTED: WITHIN BOUNDS, NO ABNORMALITIES

END OF OUTPUT FOR USERID "BRAINBOMB"

ANALYSING USERID "BUNNYGO"

AVAILABLE DATAPOINTS: THREE - BRIEF

LANGUAGE PATTERN DETECTED: DEEP-SOUTH US-ENGLISH

MOOD PATTERN DETECTED: UNTOWARDLY ANTAGONISTIC TOWARDS USERID "BRAINBOMB". EXPECTEDLY HELPFUL TOWARDS USERID "GlitterBomb, newbie and learning!"

END OF OUTPUT FOR USERID "BUNNYGO"

Hmm ok ##Vote VecnA

[SpiritoftheRadio]

take me down to jamie james city where the ghugs are green and the brains be scummy. TAKE. ME. HOOOOOOOOOME.

I enjoy the flavor. Next time we do rock of love with bret micheals or, better yet, a flavor flav flavor of love theme. Because I am all about milking the dying charm of the 80's for all its worth

[ghug]

INITIATING EMPATHY PROTOCOL

MY COMISERATIONS FLESHBAG, THAT SOUNDS UNPLEASANT. WHAT OCCURED FOR YOU TO BE IN THIS SITUATION?

INITIATING MEDICAL ADVICE PROTOCOL

QUERYING DUTCH MEDICAL DATABASES

HAVE YOU CONSIDERED TAKING SOME PANADOL? NINE OUT OF TEN DOCTORS RECOMMEND TAKING 3 STANDARD UNITS OF PANADOL PER DAY TO ALLEVIATE ANY AILMENT.

Ah fuck how can I vote for HK-47?

[ghug]

Felt a pop while pulling on my shorts. Leg went dead (and painfully). Probably a slipped disc. Currently can use leg, but foot is near constantly tingling. They say that since I haven’t lost strength, they expect a dull recovery. But the waiting sucks.

Will be praying for a dull recovery.

[ghug]

Isn’t that dangerous though? If we all go gun without some dedicated roses then we lose right? Do we really just chance it?

No
Yes
Yes

I have been considering the benefits and drawbacks of a probability-based approach to collectively deciding between guns and roses.

As in, we decide on some probability p of choosing a gun, and then, with that probability, everyone flips a weighted coin and chooses a gun if it comes up heads and a rose if it comes up tails.

I am not sure what the "correct" probability p would be. Does anyone have any intuition here? Should there be more guns or more roses amongst the townspeople?

This will not work. Take a rose if you're worried. Let's just play the game.

[ghug]

I couldnt see the thread on the forum shortcut on the left for somereason it only shows up in the forum tab

That's what "[Hidden]" means.

We're men to each other so people don't want to see it.

[ghug]

the setup is not very complicated until you factor in people shooting each other. with guns there is always the chance that we successfully gain added value in killing extra mafia or killing mafia in the absence of successful daytime kills. however more typically we tend to fail
miserably by either handcuffing our gunned players and trying to micromanage their choices; or the gun holders try too hard and shoot into consensus town pools.

so with that said it is super important people have attempts at reading the hard to read players and if for nothing else; bucket them for themself into would kill and would not kill categories. you do not have to share such things other than just reads however. no sense in opening the door for ease of mafia manipulation.

early read is that sparta is probably town here; maybe bunny also. neither are anything profound, just instinct.

ghug and glitter dont seem scummy but also havent moved the dial for me with anything yet. vecna gimmick is sort of like his Julius Ceaser thing and it amused me but its also something hes done as scum before. that said I enjoyed his robot role play and would like to see if it has room to be both fun and useful as a tool

Ding ding

[ghug]

I'm trying to get a sense of what is the proper distribution between guns and roses the town should want to have between them. To do this, I decided to do a little modeling of a simplified version of the game. I assume the following:

* Everyone survives day 1, so we go into night 1 at 11 town and 3 mafia.
* All mafia choose a night-1 gun.
* All town choose either a night-1 gun (with probability p) or a night-1 rose (with probability 1-p). (So: after night 1, all mechanics are exhausted.)
* The mafia pick 4 town at random to kill on night 1 (1 factional kill and 3 from their guns).
* With probability q, each town with a gun shoots at a randomly-chosen mafia, and thus has probability 1-q of shooting at a randomly-chosen town.

q represents the probability of a townsperson correctly guessing that a different player is mafia. At the start of the game, this should be 3 / 13 = 23% (there is no information to pick between any other players). Of course, we would hope that q > 23% as the game goes on.

For all combinations of p in {0.1,0.2,...0.8,0.9} and q in {0.23,0.25,0.3,0.35,0.4}, I ran 1000 simulations in R and recorded the average number of town and mafia remaining after all of the carnage of night 1. Here is the resulting table:

i.imgur.com/a/QNlMUpv

Here is how to read this: if all town pick a gun with probability p = 0.4, and each town with a gun has probability q = 0.35 of correctly identifying mafia, then we expect there to be about 8.991 surviving town and 1.771 surviving mafia after night 1.

A few obvious critiques you can make of all of this:

(1) I do not advocate for a tied kill on Day 1; I am merely choosing this to simplify my analysis.

(2) Of course, it is possible for mafia to pick roses.

(3) And of course, there are more nights to choose between than just night 1.

But I just wanted to get my hands dirty with some data. I'm tired, so I'll come back to this tomorrow and try to make sense of what this data tells me in terms of how to approach this particular game.

(Also, off topic, but when I tried to upload this as an attachment to the discussion board, I received the error message "Sorry, the board attachment quota has been reached.". Has anyone else had this happen?)

I'm going to vote for you.

[ghug]

I think this game can be broken

I assume we probably shouldn’t communicate our picks for guns/roses?

It does seem like the optimal play is 50/50 split of town taking guns and roses, then we get a gunner to shoot a rose holder and we create a bunch of town clears.

Mafia just go along with this and do what town says and then nobody dies and we learn nothing.

Just play the game.

[Jamiet99uk]

GM NOTE

I am aware that the Bot has stopped working; manual Vote Count coming shortly.

[Jamiet99uk]

VOTE COUNT 1.0

BunnyGo (1) SpiritoftheRadio
Damo666 (1) Spartaculous
Brainbomb (1) BunnyGo
Vecna (1) Ghug

Currently NOBODY is set to be removed.

36 hours and 13 minutes remain in Day One.

[Jamiet99uk]

##call gm

I realize now that I did not realize roses dont work during the day, they work at night. Odd to me since we have to choose a day for the rose to work on, but ok. Maybe it isn't as easy to game as I thought

GM NOTE

Damn, forgive me, apparently I forgot my own setup. Silly JT.

There is an error in the Role PMs. The Role PM posted on Page 1 are the versions that were sent to everyone, but in my haste to launch the game, each contains the same error.

Both PMs should read as follows [clarification in red text]:

Guns and Roses activate during the NIGHT, and not the DAY.

You are a member of the TOWN. Each day, you must vote for a suspect.
During D1 you MUST PM the GM with a choice of (a) ROSE or GUN, and (b) a specific NIGHT. You win when all the Mafia are eliminated or nothing can stop this from happening.

You are a member of the MAFIA. Each day, you must vote for a suspect.
During D1 you MUST PM the GM with a choice of (a) ROSE or GUN, and (b) a specific NIGHT. At night, you may talk to your Team Mates [player] and [player] in a secret chatroom at [link]. You win when all the Town are eliminated or nothing can stop this from happening.

----------------------------------

Please forgive my unfortunate error and thank you to those of you who noticed it.

Those of you who have already sent an order:

If you mentioned a "Day" in your order, this will be registered as your Gun or Rose activating on the specified NIGHT.

Those of you who have not yet made an order:

Please choose GUN or ROSE and specify the NIGHT you wish to be active.

----------------------------------

Once again, apologies for this error; I am a human, and a flawed one at best.

[Jamiet99uk]

I have asked Dargorygel to reset the Bot; the timer is still running but it is not logging posts or votes. I will continue to provide manual Vote Counts.

[Jamiet99uk]

wait, two questions

1) can vig kills be used during the night?
2) If a vig kill targets a person with a rose, do we get an announcement that we heard the shot or not?

##call gm

1) They are specifically used at night, not day.

2) When someone is killed, their flip reveals their alignment, and if they had chosen a GUN or a ROSE.

You are not told:
(a) on what Night their Gun / Rose was active, or
(b) who killed them, or
(c) whether they were the victim of a gunshot, or the Mafia NK.