Mafia XL - A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Forum

[Balki Bartokomous]

Given Yavuz's lack of interest here in giving us a final surge of effort, I don't really see what is going to change. And because the outcome of the lynch vote seems so clear, I don't think vote analysis from today is going to be useful.

Is anyone going to defend Yavuz?

Xorxes is smarter than me and I'm impatient.

##END

[DrCJG]

DrCJG, did you consider the NK protection provided by the box when you delivered it N2?

Yes I did. I also considered NK strategies for the mafia, the use of the driver in diverting the box, the doctor trying to save someone, the watcher seeing my visit.

I am still a little confused by your scum!DrCJG being more likely that scum!Worcej line of reasoning... after a couple rereads, I understand you to be saying that scum!Worcej could pass the box among scum (and use up the list function) such that no one ever knew he got the box, but scum!DrCJG would always be somewhat identified as having received the box by town!Worcej... that seems accurate, but I am not sure it accounts for much difference in reads... scum!DrCJG could have passed it to scum but in the final seconds of the next night said it was sent to a person that got NK'd or said he sent it to someone but it got drivered... or since, as town, I couldn't be sure the alignment of the person I was passing to, scum!DrCJG could have passed it to scum and just said he didn't know the alignment of the person he was passing to.

I agree there are reasons that you might have passed the box to another scum if you are scum, but since we know that did not happen, I did not go into that. My point was there are reasons you might pass the box to town as scum, and therefore your passing the box to town is NAI.

I agree with you that it is NAI... so perhaps where we really disagree is on Worcej's pass to me being clearly town.

[Balki Bartokomous]

I agree with you that it is NAI... so perhaps where we really disagree is on Worcej's pass to me being clearly town.

I'm feeling fairly NAI on the Worcej box reveal. I've been trying to think about what my strategy might be as mafia if my team had the box on Night 1. I am fairly sure that I would not have suggested that we keep the box circulating among the mafia team. There is just a lot that can go wrong. For example, oracle reveals, observer observations, someone later ordering "LIST." There are also some benefits from passing to town, especially if you plan to reveal to whom you passed the box (town cred if the person you pass to flipped and scum cred to the person you passed if you flip).

Also, while there are items in the box that worcej could have pulled that would have given him an opportunity to increase his town credibility, claiming to pull a scan/swap is not one of them. If I were mafia known to have the box, a scan swap would be a pretty convenient item to claim. Obviously town could have pulled that item, which makes this only slightly scum-indicative.

[DrCJG]

@ Balki - Again we are seeing the same thing...

If you had the box tonight... do you think you should take another item (possibly the 4th/last) or perform the list action... put another way... at what point should the box be used as a weapon?

[Balki Bartokomous]

@ Balki - Again we are seeing the same thing...

If you had the box tonight... do you think you should take another item (possibly the 4th/last) or perform the list action... put another way... at what point should the box be used as a weapon?

Please give me the box tonight!

The Box has 4-6 items. I assume that there is a 1/3 chance of each.

So, here are my considerations:

If I am a PR, or a town clear, or widely townread, then my death is more significant, and I would be more likely to order "LIST." If I am a PR, I almost certainly order LIST.

If town is winning, I would be more likely to order "LIST," as I would go for the lower variance strategy. Basically, if Yavuz flips scum here, and we still have our Watcher and Doctor hidden, then I would be less likely to take risks.

But generally, if I get the Box on Night 5, I know that only 4 or fewer items have been taken, so there is at least a 2/3 chance I can grab another item. It's going to be hard for me to resist, depending on the factors above.

That said, if I take a 5th item, I would not be passing the box to someone who is a town clear or someone I am sure is town. I would pass to someone on the borderline.

[Balki Bartokomous]

If the current box holder is town, they probably do not need to pass to someone on the borderline. They should pass to a town read. If you pass to the Doc or the Observer, they can just order List and pass it along. If you pass to a VT, then the VT will probably take an item, and it's worth the risk.

[Squigs44]

Also, @Squigs - why did you not pass the box back to me? Out of curiosity, granted I am not a clear, but that puzzled me because you had the chance to do so.

I didn't pass it to you for a few reasons.
1) I dont townread you as strongly as others townread you.
2) I wanted to give the box to someone that I heavily townread
3) I wanted to give the box to someone that I thought had a good chance of being NKd.

[DemonRHK]

Balki, you do realize that 'list' doesn't stop the box from kabooming right? You're advocating a 1 in 3 that Holder #4 risks a top townread on that?

[Squigs44]

Also, if I understand correctly, the box explodes the night after the last item is taken. So taking an item will never kill the taker, it would kill the recipient.

[Balki Bartokomous]

Balki, you do realize that 'list' doesn't stop the box from kabooming right? You're advocating a 1 in 3 that Holder #4 risks a top townread on that?

That's a good point, you're right. I did not realize that.

[Balki Bartokomous]

@RagingIke, what's going on, my man?

[Balki Bartokomous]

@RagingIke, the bot says that you have not posted since page 68. What's happening over there?

[flash2015]

@ Balki - Again we are seeing the same thing...

If you had the box tonight... do you think you should take another item (possibly the 4th/last) or perform the list action... put another way... at what point should the box be used as a weapon?

Please give me the box tonight!

The Box has 4-6 items. I assume that there is a 1/3 chance of each.

So, here are my considerations:

If I am a PR, or a town clear, or widely townread, then my death is more significant, and I would be more likely to order "LIST." If I am a PR, I almost certainly order LIST.

If town is winning, I would be more likely to order "LIST," as I would go for the lower variance strategy. Basically, if Yavuz flips scum here, and we still have our Watcher and Doctor hidden, then I would be less likely to take risks.

But generally, if I get the Box on Night 5, I know that only 4 or fewer items have been taken, so there is at least a 2/3 chance I can grab another item. It's going to be hard for me to resist, depending on the factors above.

That said, if I take a 5th item, I would not be passing the box to someone who is a town clear or someone I am sure is town. I would pass to someone on the borderline.

Woohoo! Perhaps I still have a chance of getting the box!

[flash2015]

I will vote end as well, let's speed this game up:

##END

[yavuzovic]

If town is winning, I would be more likely to order "LIST," as I would go for the lower variance strategy. Basically, if Yavuz flips scum here, and we still have our Watcher and Doctor hidden, then I would be less likely to take risks.

Ya ##end
I will die regardless my alignment, right. You should stop assuming I will flip scum then because this will never happen. Also Balki genuinely assumed I will flip town so i can say Balki is town. Yes he was genuine here.

[yavuzovic]

I still say damo is so obvious scum.
@ND, after I flip town, can you turn back to your old way and continue scum reading damo666?

[yavuzovic]

I was genuine at all of my posts,
I was town while writing "we"
I was town while making two mistakes in one post
I was town while overreacting Xorxes's lynch list.

I hope you will not be following that dumb list after I flip miller.

[Balki Bartokomous]

@Yavuz, I don't know man. You could flip town. I think of you as a bit of a wildcard. In the last game I played here, I believe you fake claimed cop as a VT, with a guilty claim on a VT? Something like that. Anyway, I do think you're the best lynch here because I see you as most likely to flip scum. But I find this game hard, and I'm wrong all the time, so who knows?

If you are town, then you are the only one in the game who knows that, which gives you a unique point of view. We have time. Why don't you spend some time reading ISOs and coming up with your best possible reads before you go?

[damo666]

I was genuine at all of my posts,
I was town while writing "we"
I was town while making two mistakes in one post
I was town while overreacting Xorxes's lynch list.

I hope you will not be following that dumb list after I flip miller.

a) you cannot flip miller
b) you were not scanned (I'm assuming Xorxes scanned Ezio) so what's with all this miller shit?

[damo666]

Balki if you want yav to have time unend