Mafia Olympics - Gold Medal Game- Fantasy Football - Official Game Thread

[damo666]

I am not running the math here, but I feel the likelihood we give all our PRs to a scum player is higher with the superpower bullshit.

13 town- 4 scum

Seems like about 3-1 to me; so 75% we give it to a town. Well…100% if we just go SUPERBUNNY (TM)

I think there is a 76% of having a town in all 3 roles vs. a 42% chance if we randomly picked a separate player for each role.

Agreed. I just independently expressed this a little differently but it tallies.

[President Eden]

I am hopelessly behind (for now; will fix), but stacking powers up seems unwise to me because one shot powers here function as a sort of reaction test. There’s very little incentive to hide your decisionmaking or the results of it, so players who are tasked with a docsave or copscan or whatever basically have to out their reasoning.

Spreading out also mitigates worst-case scenarios. Greater likelihood a scum ends up with a power, of course, and we should obviously try not to give scum powers lol… (brilliant stuff I know) but the info upside is real. Making more people take committal stances is good.

In conclusion Eden 2024

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

I am not running the math here, but I feel the likelihood we give all our PRs to a scum player is higher with the superpower bullshit.

I agree but it seems as though the consense is the superpower

How about this guys, we give the D/ST and QB to one player, and then the FLEX to another and have the doc save the flex. That way the joat is a difference player from the doc/tracker

I think this is a fine option day one to spread the risk a little.

If we do this, heres my roster

QB: Flum
RB1: Bona
RB2: Glitter
WR1: Colby
WR2: Eden
TE: TFB
FLEX: Jamie
D/ST: Flum
K: Haze
I/R: damo (I would be okay with another today, damo is my strongest scumread yet it is weak)

[ghug]

##Superdoc Bunny
##JOAT ghug
##VOTE worcej

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

13 town- 4 scum

Seems like about 3-1 to me; so 75% we give it to a town. Well…100% if we just go SUPERBUNNY (TM)

So 25% odds we give all 3 to scum. The odds of doing that via spreading the votes to my top 3 town reads is almost certainly lower

From an outside pov if one person is 3 PRs there is a 4/17 (23.6%) chance of being scum.

If the 3 PRs are all different the chances of being all town are 13*12*11/17*16*15 = 42%. So the chance of at least one scum PR is 58%.

However on the other hand the chance they are all scum drops to less than 1%.

However, the chance two of the three are scum is very low, and even one piece of info per day is good. We can also force mafia PRs to go on a set path of their actions, and deviating will be very sus

[damo666]

I am not running the math here, but I feel the likelihood we give all our PRs to a scum player is higher with the superpower bullshit.

It's less.

Its more

With only 1 person with superpowers its like 4/16

With 3 people as superpowered people its like

4/16 times 3/15 times 2/14 which is like 24/3360

Which simplified is 1/140

So the chance we give all our PRs to scum is either 1/4 with the mega superpowered plan vs 1/140 with the spreading them out plan

Yes, one player being 3 PRs means it's much more likely that all PRs are scum than if we pick 3 different people but ten it's more likely there is at least one scum PR. So both have downside.

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

Gus Edwards becomes Ghus Edwards

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

It's less.

Its more

With only 1 person with superpowers its like 4/16

With 3 people as superpowered people its like

4/16 times 3/15 times 2/14 which is like 24/3360

Which simplified is 1/140

So the chance we give all our PRs to scum is either 1/4 with the mega superpowered plan vs 1/140 with the spreading them out plan

Yes, one player being 3 PRs means it's much more likely that all PRs are scum than if we pick 3 different people but ten it's more likely there is at least one scum PR. So both have downside.

Right but like you said, one PR as scum doesn’t hurt town that much, whereas 3 scum PRs (while more unlikely than 1/3 scum PRs) is way more risky and should be avoided

[damo666]

So 25% odds we give all 3 to scum. The odds of doing that via spreading the votes to my top 3 town reads is almost certainly lower

From an outside pov if one person is 3 PRs there is a 4/17 (23.6%) chance of being scum.

If the 3 PRs are all different the chances of being all town are 13*12*11/17*16*15 = 42%. So the chance of at least one scum PR is 58%.

However on the other hand the chance they are all scum drops to less than 1%.

However, the chance two of the three are scum is very low, and even one piece of info per day is good. We can also force mafia PRs to go on a set path of their actions, and deviating will be very sus

Valid. The compromise you proposed is good.

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

Dak Prescott becomes Dak Pres(eden)scott

I cant think of any more damn

[damo666]

##Superdoc Bunny
##JOAT ghug
##VOTE worcej

##QBdoc Bozo
##JOAT Eden
##VOTE Bona

I don't think you should vote yourself as PR

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

##Superdoc Bunny
##JOAT ghug
##VOTE worcej

##QBdoc Bozo
##JOAT Eden
##VOTE Bona

I don't think you should vote yourself as PR

Damo you have to be kidding

[President Eden]

I’m claiming Julian Edenman

[Jamiet99uk]

I’m claiming Julian Edenman

Did anyone recognise my avatar I wonder.

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

OH kak is Kak Cousins

[damo666]

##Superdoc Bunny
##JOAT ghug
##VOTE worcej

##QBdoc Bozo
##JOAT Eden
##VOTE Bona

I don't think you should vote yourself as PR

Damo you have to be kidding

why?

[BunnyGo]

##Superdoc Bunny
##JOAT ghug
##VOTE worcej

This. I can get on board with this. Or voting Flum…

[BunnyGo]

##Superdoc Bunny
##JOAT ghug
##VOTE worcej

##QBdoc Bozo
##JOAT Eden
##VOTE Bona

I don't think you should vote yourself as PR

Damo you have to be kidding

I think he must be at this point? Last game of his I remember like this he was having some medical issues and just in a bad mood but was town

[Hamilton Brian]

I feel like there was a tonne of stuff posted from the last time I looked.

Here's where I am at. Don't put me on the roster and keep me on the bench.

I don't know what sort of roster I will put together. There's some of you I really like.

[damo666]

I feel like there was a tonne of stuff posted from the last time I looked.

Here's where I am at. Don't put me on the roster and keep me on the bench.

I don't know what sort of roster I will put together. There's some of you I really like.

Done