Mafia Olympics - Gold Medal Game- Fantasy Football - Official Game Thread

[damo666]

1. Bozo TOWN
2. HamiltonBrian INSUFFICIENT DATA*
3. col7by INSUFFICIENT DATA
4. President Eden INSUFFICIENT DATA*
5. TheFlyingBoat INSUFFICIENT DATA
6. JustaguynamedWill TOWN
7. Glitterbomb UNSURE
8. Damo666 TOWN
9. Kakarroto INSUFFICIENT DATA*
10. Jamiet99uk TOWN
11. Fluminator TOWN
.12 BunnyGo TOWN
.13 bonatogether INSUFFICIENT DATA
.14 worcej TOWN
.15 ghug TOWN
.16 hazewithaz INSUFFICIENT DATA
.17 rdrivera2005 INSUFFICIENT DATA*

* UNWILLING TO PUT IN AS #10

The sharper eyed amongst you will see I have worcej as TOWN despite him being #10 in my roster. I will be changing that position to one of players 5 13 3 16 7 (that order).

Daft day 1 readlist.

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

I am not running the math here, but I feel the likelihood we give all our PRs to a scum player is higher with the superpower bullshit.

I agree but it seems as though the consense is the superpower

How about this guys, we give the D/ST and QB to one player, and then the FLEX to another and have the doc save the flex. That way the joat is a difference player from the doc/tracker

[BunnyGo]

I am not running the math here, but I feel the likelihood we give all our PRs to a scum player is higher with the superpower bullshit.

13 town- 4 scum

Seems like about 3-1 to me; so 75% we give it to a town. Well…100% if we just go SUPERBUNNY (TM)

[worcej]

This

I am scumming Bunny stronger now.

Why?

We cross posted.

But it’s better to me to empower my top town reads versus the top one read. And we all have to agree on the one player.

Bunny is more scum to me because his focus has been on getting power than actually trying to find a scum

[BunnyGo]

I am scumming Bunny stronger now.

Why?

We cross posted.

But it’s better to me to empower my top town reads versus the top one read. And we all have to agree on the one player.

Bunny is more scum to me because his focus has been on getting power than actually trying to find a scum

I’m trying to relieve the rest of town of the burden of thinking about all this. Helping 12 other players hunt better is good.

[bozotheclown]

I am not running the math here, but I feel the likelihood we give all our PRs to a scum player is higher with the superpower bullshit.

By random assignment, there would be a significantly higher chance of all 3 PRs being mafia, but a significantly lower chance of at least 1 of 3 PRs being mafia.

[BunnyGo]

I am not running the math here, but I feel the likelihood we give all our PRs to a scum player is higher with the superpower bullshit.

By random assignment, there would be a significantly higher chance of all 3 PRs being mafia, but a significantly lower chance of at least 1 of 3 PRs being mafia.

Also this

Also a higher chance of getting a mech cleared town that can continue to be the SUPERBUNNY (TM) that we all need.

[damo666]

I am not running the math here, but I feel the likelihood we give all our PRs to a scum player is higher with the superpower bullshit.

It's less.

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

Bunny whos town to you right now

I think ghug passed a reaction test; he’s slippery but townier

Bozo seems townier

Those are the solid ones

Amazingly rdr gave good vibes in his 3 posts, but is too hard to read to say “town”

Jamie, Col7by too seem towny, but I find them tricksy. Same with you.


Damo seems too scummy to be scum, but he’s damo.

I aint be banking on these reads
So call me hedgefund please

Wow my comedy career has peaked with that joke

[worcej]

I am not running the math here, but I feel the likelihood we give all our PRs to a scum player is higher with the superpower bullshit.

13 town- 4 scum

Seems like about 3-1 to me; so 75% we give it to a town. Well…100% if we just go SUPERBUNNY (TM)

So 25% odds we give all 3 to scum. The odds of doing that via spreading the votes to my top 3 town reads is almost certainly lower

[BunnyGo]

Well. Off to run 4 hours of errands!

[bozotheclown]

I am not running the math here, but I feel the likelihood we give all our PRs to a scum player is higher with the superpower bullshit.

13 town- 4 scum

Seems like about 3-1 to me; so 75% we give it to a town. Well…100% if we just go SUPERBUNNY (TM)

I think there is a 76% of having a town in all 3 roles vs. a 42% chance if we randomly picked a separate player for each role.

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

I am not running the math here, but I feel the likelihood we give all our PRs to a scum player is higher with the superpower bullshit.

It's less.

Its more

With only 1 person with superpowers its like 4/16

With 3 people as superpowered people its like

4/16 times 3/15 times 2/14 which is like 24/3360

Which simplified is 1/140

So the chance we give all our PRs to scum is either 1/4 with the mega superpowered plan vs 1/140 with the spreading them out plan

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

I am not running the math here, but I feel the likelihood we give all our PRs to a scum player is higher with the superpower bullshit.

It's less.

Its more

With only 1 person with superpowers its like 4/16

With 3 people as superpowered people its like

4/16 times 3/15 times 2/14 which is like 24/3360

Which simplified is 1/140

So the chance we give all our PRs to scum is either 1/4 with the mega superpowered plan vs 1/140 with the spreading them out plan

TLDR math says no mega superpowered person

Accouunting for doc being a PR and killing one of the PRs that are town the odds are more like 1/200 that its all scum controlled if we spread them out. Ill take the 1/200 odds over 1/4

[Jamiet99uk]

I am not running the math here, but I feel the likelihood we give all our PRs to a scum player is higher with the superpower bullshit.

I feel it is a risk; for this reason I don't like the superpower idea, even after all Brainbomb's clarifications.

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

I would propose the 2 PRs as a compromise

1 person as the Doc and Watcher, and 1 person as the JOAT. Doc must save the JOAT or otherwise we policy kill them

[ghug]

unofficial roster:
QB bozo
RB1 Kakarroto
RB2 PE
WR1 Col7by
WR2 rdrivera
TE Bonatogether
FLEX Fluminator
D/ST BunnyGo
K Haze
I/R TFB

This is based on knowing I am town, being willing to give Fluminator and BunnyGo a chance to be PRs since they volunteered, putting players who have not posted much yet in the slots with negative town utility, and TFB's one post, since I have not seen any reason to specifically suspect any of the players who have been more active so far.

I volunteered too…

Also TFB flip????

I believe they volunteer first, but we can have new PRs on D2.

It is not much to go on, but TFB's one post was enough for me to put him below the 2 non-posters, because he could have waited until he was able to participate before posting.

Have you ever been drunk before, bozo?

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

I would propose the 2 PRs as a compromise

1 person as the Doc and Watcher, and 1 person as the JOAT. Doc must save the JOAT or otherwise we policy kill them

Howeverhave 3 different PRs is statistically probably our best option and is the one we should do. 2 PRs is only a compromise

[ghug]

I am not running the math here, but I feel the likelihood we give all our PRs to a scum player is higher with the superpower bullshit.

I agree but it seems as though the consense is the superpower

How about this guys, we give the D/ST and QB to one player, and then the FLEX to another and have the doc save the flex. That way the joat is a difference player from the doc/tracker

I think this is a fine option day one to spread the risk a little.

[damo666]

I am not running the math here, but I feel the likelihood we give all our PRs to a scum player is higher with the superpower bullshit.

13 town- 4 scum

Seems like about 3-1 to me; so 75% we give it to a town. Well…100% if we just go SUPERBUNNY (TM)

So 25% odds we give all 3 to scum. The odds of doing that via spreading the votes to my top 3 town reads is almost certainly lower

From an outside pov if one person is 3 PRs there is a 4/17 (23.6%) chance of being scum.

If the 3 PRs are all different the chances of being all town are 13*12*11/17*16*15 = 42%. So the chance of at least one scum PR is 58%.

However on the other hand the chance they are all scum drops to less than 1%.