WebMafia Olympics - Game #3 - Raygun's Revenge [GAME THREAD]

[Kakarroto]

Wow look at Kak doubling down on discussing Mafia strategy even when being counselled to cease.

I still think it would've been much better, especially with this result, that we should've tried to defang mafia, robbing them of their shots earlier. Now we got lucky that mafia shot so early today, for whatever reason. But you all seem to think we did the towny thing? I remain unconvinced

Why did you hammer if you still don't understanding why it was the optimal play?

BECAUSE I FRIGGEN TRUSTED BUNNY. I was the most confident he was town, at least at the time, and I talked myself of distrusting him a bit during the long wait for sweets flip. I wasn't too sure about sweet, but if my biggest townread wanted him dead, and two people I thought are likely town at the time too, then we have a great chance to vote out mafia. And that would've been the best scenario, but sweet was town.

[ghug]

At this point I will assume Kak is town. If he isn't we already lost so it's a safe assumption.
So it's two from Jamiet-Ghug- Flum. Would both scum Ghug and Flum push the endvote on Sweet? Flum progression from scum team being me and Fhug to hammering Sweet with Ghug look so opportunistic that I feel he thought he could win the game with that miskill.

On the other side Ghug move to vote me is exactly what I think scum would do today.

Maybe it's just them both.

The game is still going, so do you think I failed?

No. Even if scum have killed yesterday the game will still be going as 2 x 2 without a shot isn't a Mafia win (I think).
Só, I think you succeded in miskilling a town and entering KILO with an obvious miskill to push (me).

3/2 with a shot left is a mafia win unless two townies both vote for mafia before either mafia can vote, and then the final townie correctly coalesces.

[Kakarroto]

I mean, either you shot him or it's Jamie and Rd. Either way, I think they were trying to lock him in on being wrong on me, and maybe frame you because you were agitated and ostensibly the only one online.

you think maf-flum could not fake it?

If Flum were mafia, he would have shot yesterday once he realized that shooting yesterday lost us a miskill, and the game would be over now. This is the same reason I was townreading Bunny all day yesterday, as I believed that he understood the same.

My voting pool is the people who didn't realize this, since mafia didn't shoot yesterday.

but if we got an early shot from mafia, it would've been better. Don't you realize how dangerous the late shots are, or are you just playing dumb at this point?

[ghug]

The game is still going, so do you think I failed?

No. Even if scum have killed yesterday the game will still be going as 2 x 2 without a shot isn't a Mafia win (I think).
Só, I think you succeded in miskilling a town and entering KILO with an obvious miskill to push (me).

After Kak post I re-read the rules and I think Mafia just lost a sure win yesterday. Entering today with a 3-2 would be almost auto unless two town vote before scum can vote.

So, maybe I am wrong on you.

##vote Ghug

Have you read yesterday?

[Kakarroto]

The game is still going, so do you think I failed?

No. Even if scum have killed yesterday the game will still be going as 2 x 2 without a shot isn't a Mafia win (I think).
Só, I think you succeded in miskilling a town and entering KILO with an obvious miskill to push (me).

3/2 with a shot left is a mafia win unless two townies both vote for mafia before either mafia can vote, and then the final townie correctly coalesces.

and a 3/2 with two shots left is an INSTANT mafia win

mafia would always be able to trade (the one who is being voted out shooting) so there is no negative point for mafia to just hold it until very necessary.

[Kakarroto]

the superior maf strategy would've been to just keep crusing, watching town vote out town after town, and only when it is 3-2 use their shots, if neither of them were in danger. It give out no information for town. It gives mafia always a favourable trade if the one being voted out shoots.

ONLY because mafia made that big mistake by shooting today, we are in a not too bad spot.

[ghug]

you think maf-flum could not fake it?

If Flum were mafia, he would have shot yesterday once he realized that shooting yesterday lost us a miskill, and the game would be over now. This is the same reason I was townreading Bunny all day yesterday, as I believed that he understood the same.

My voting pool is the people who didn't realize this, since mafia didn't shoot yesterday.

but if we got an early shot from mafia, it would've been better. Don't you realize how dangerous the late shots are, or are you just playing dumb at this point?

Flum has explained it to you succinctly. I think forcing mafia to shoot in the early game would have been wise in retrospect, but yesterday was too late for that.

What we did gave us two chances to kill mafia, with a chance at an extra on certain situations if we got one of those two right.

Your strategy gave us two chances to kill mafia as well, but one was in the tie scenario, where we would need both to get it right and to win the timing game.

Optimal play from mafia yesterday was to shoot someone, because then after a miskill they could win either by getting another miskill or by getting one of the two oldest votes and then shooting someone.

[ghug]

No. Even if scum have killed yesterday the game will still be going as 2 x 2 without a shot isn't a Mafia win (I think).
Só, I think you succeded in miskilling a town and entering KILO with an obvious miskill to push (me).

3/2 with a shot left is a mafia win unless two townies both vote for mafia before either mafia can vote, and then the final townie correctly coalesces.

and a 3/2 with two shots left is an INSTANT mafia win

mafia would always be able to trade (the one who is being voted out shooting) so there is no negative point for mafia to just hold it until very necessary.

3/2 with two shots left means we've miskilled twice, which is an instant mafia win in almost every scenario.

[Kakarroto]

3/2 with a shot left is a mafia win unless two townies both vote for mafia before either mafia can vote, and then the final townie correctly coalesces.

and a 3/2 with two shots left is an INSTANT mafia win

mafia would always be able to trade (the one who is being voted out shooting) so there is no negative point for mafia to just hold it until very necessary.

3/2 with two shots left means we've miskilled twice, which is an instant mafia win in almost every scenario.

it doesn't matter how many time we misvote, if we always misvote. Mafia not shooting gives out no information for who they (or at least one of them) think of as the greatest threat, giving us at least some idea what they are thinking.

Anyway, lets try to get back to solving the game. They removed bunny from the game. The time was very strange in my opinion. What are your thoughts about why mafia shot at that moment?

What is everyones thought about that timing of the shot?

[ghug]

and a 3/2 with two shots left is an INSTANT mafia win

mafia would always be able to trade (the one who is being voted out shooting) so there is no negative point for mafia to just hold it until very necessary.

3/2 with two shots left means we've miskilled twice, which is an instant mafia win in almost every scenario.

it doesn't matter how many time we misvote, if we always misvote. Mafia not shooting gives out no information for who they (or at least one of them) think of as the greatest threat, giving us at least some idea what they are thinking.

Anyway, lets try to get back to solving the game. They removed bunny from the game. The time was very strange in my opinion. What are your thoughts about why mafia shot at that moment?

What is everyones thought about that timing of the shot?

We can't just leave the mechanics behind because it's a chief reason I have for limiting my voting pool and if you are the third townie and don't see that, we're liable to lose.

I think Bunny makes sense as a shot. He was already widely townread and was making a convincing argument that he had been mechanically cleared. I know I was asleep and I doubt rd was online.

I do find it a little surprising that they shot so early, especially if Rd is their partner, since he's a plausible kill today.

[Kakarroto]

only a little? I was pretty surprised. And yeah, RD would've probably be the prime target for a vote today. But he was also under suspicion from now dead townies. As are you.

I mean, there is a world where I see you and RD being town with me and a jamie-flum team. But this seems so unlikely, with you choosing and pushing the target yesterday.

Why didn't you try to endvote RD? What was your thought that sweet has to be the definite endvote? I still remember that he heavily suspected you, so it would be quite nice for maf-ghug to remove that voice. Plus bunny who was also beginning to suspect you.

I mean, sweet also was 100% mafpartner with ImpWill, from his own words, but yeah.

I'm also taken aback that you try to point to some mech reason for your townyness (and flums townyness), when you are also someone that usually stays away from pure mechtalk. I mean maybe that's different here. But still those thoughts crawl up my brain.

Also, to unravel the whole mechanics things, if we really must, I'll have a look at it later. I'm tired with a small headache and that's not a good starting point to analyse things. I also think we can't ignore what people think about the whole situation, so I definitely want to hear from Flum, RD and Jamie too, what they think about the early shot.

[ghug]

only a little? I was pretty surprised. And yeah, RD would've probably be the prime target for a vote today. But he was also under suspicion from now dead townies. As are you.

I mean, there is a world where I see you and RD being town with me and a jamie-flum team. But this seems so unlikely, with you choosing and pushing the target yesterday.

Why didn't you try to endvote RD? What was your thought that sweet has to be the definite endvote? I still remember that he heavily suspected you, so it would be quite nice for maf-ghug to remove that voice. Plus bunny who was also beginning to suspect you.

I mean, sweet also was 100% mafpartner with ImpWill, from his own words, but yeah.

I'm also taken aback that you try to point to some mech reason for your townyness (and flums townyness), when you are also someone that usually stays away from pure mechtalk. I mean maybe that's different here. But still those thoughts crawl up my brain.

Also, to unravel the whole mechanics things, if we really must, I'll have a look at it later. I'm tired with a small headache and that's not a good starting point to analyse things. I also think we can't ignore what people think about the whole situation, so I definitely want to hear from Flum, RD and Jamie too, what they think about the early shot.

I'm confused by mafia's shooting decisions in general, and I do think Bunny was close enough to clear that he was probably going to be the kill regardless.

I didn't vote rd because he wasn't my top scumread. I probably would have hammered him if that's who people had wanted. I didn't try to hide that my scumread on him was in part based on his on me. I thought it was a shitty, bad faith argument.

I don't avoid pure mech talk. I don't like doing it early when it's unnecessary and easy for mafia to hide in, and I don't like mech-heavy setups, but I roll my sleeves up and get my hands dirty when the situation calls for it. I put myself out there D1 in the first Olympics game over a mechanical stance, for example, and I'm usually leading the charge in figuring things out mechanically if I'm alive in the late game.

[Kakarroto]

hmm, hm.

Read and acknowledged. I also want the others to talk about this, and give their thoughts. Also, if you have questions to me, don't hesitate to ask. I think it should also be clear that we don't want to hammer today?

But I'm going to be a bit on the break myself the bit, and have a look again tomorrow morning with a clear head. And a coffee. We have time, so we should use it, but I've sat long on this game today already so I think it's fair that others should do also their part. I think Jamie did a big part already, but it couldn't hurt if he does a little more if he feels like it. Thoughts definitely appreciated. Flum I want to hear more of, definitely, especially about his thoughts of the shot.

And RD needs to do more. RD, if you are town, you are doing not much. I'm not convinced you are town. I want you to do your best to give me your thoughts, analyse what happened and hit me hard with your logic.

[rdrivera2005]

The game is still going, so do you think I failed?

No. Even if scum have killed yesterday the game will still be going as 2 x 2 without a shot isn't a Mafia win (I think).
Só, I think you succeded in miskilling a town and entering KILO with an obvious miskill to push (me).

3/2 with a shot left is a mafia win unless two townies both vote for mafia before either mafia can vote, and then the final townie correctly coalesces.

Yes, I realized this after reading the OP again carefully.

[rdrivera2005]

hmm, hm.

Read and acknowledged. I also want the others to talk about this, and give their thoughts. Also, if you have questions to me, don't hesitate to ask. I think it should also be clear that we don't want to hammer today?

But I'm going to be a bit on the break myself the bit, and have a look again tomorrow morning with a clear head. And a coffee. We have time, so we should use it, but I've sat long on this game today already so I think it's fair that others should do also their part. I think Jamie did a big part already, but it couldn't hurt if he does a little more if he feels like it. Thoughts definitely appreciated. Flum I want to hear more of, definitely, especially about his thoughts of the shot.

And RD needs to do more. RD, if you are town, you are doing not much. I'm not convinced you are town. I want you to do your best to give me your thoughts, analyse what happened and hit me hard with your logic.

My time is limited this week and I can't do much about this. I am giving my thoughts as clearly as I can.

Answering Ghug about my assertions, I was clearing Kak because cast the last end vote. He could have killed Bunny and place a vote after EOD as people weren't online and it's auto win. But considering his messages today he could still be scum and just didn't understood the setup.

I also think the wagon on Sweet was opportunistic and probably at least one scum pushed it, that leaves Ghug and Flum. Now I am not sure anymore. But I am still surprised that people pushed a hammer, it makes no sense, unless you are really sure about it and it doesn't seems the case. The only voting we have is D1 were we vote a lurker.

[ghug]

hmm, hm.

Read and acknowledged. I also want the others to talk about this, and give their thoughts. Also, if you have questions to me, don't hesitate to ask. I think it should also be clear that we don't want to hammer today?

But I'm going to be a bit on the break myself the bit, and have a look again tomorrow morning with a clear head. And a coffee. We have time, so we should use it, but I've sat long on this game today already so I think it's fair that others should do also their part. I think Jamie did a big part already, but it couldn't hurt if he does a little more if he feels like it. Thoughts definitely appreciated. Flum I want to hear more of, definitely, especially about his thoughts of the shot.

And RD needs to do more. RD, if you are town, you are doing not much. I'm not convinced you are town. I want you to do your best to give me your thoughts, analyse what happened and hit me hard with your logic.

My time is limited this week and I can't do much about this. I am giving my thoughts as clearly as I can.

Answering Ghug about my assertions, I was clearing Kak because cast the last end vote. He could have killed Bunny and place a vote after EOD as people weren't online and it's auto win. But considering his messages today he could still be scum and just didn't understood the setup.

I also think the wagon on Sweet was opportunistic and probably at least one scum pushed it, that leaves Ghug and Flum. Now I am not sure anymore. But I am still surprised that people pushed a hammer, it makes no sense, unless you are really sure about it and it doesn't seems the case. The only voting we have is D1 were we vote a lurker.

Hammering someone was the correct mechanical play.

[rdrivera2005]

hmm, hm.

Read and acknowledged. I also want the others to talk about this, and give their thoughts. Also, if you have questions to me, don't hesitate to ask. I think it should also be clear that we don't want to hammer today?

But I'm going to be a bit on the break myself the bit, and have a look again tomorrow morning with a clear head. And a coffee. We have time, so we should use it, but I've sat long on this game today already so I think it's fair that others should do also their part. I think Jamie did a big part already, but it couldn't hurt if he does a little more if he feels like it. Thoughts definitely appreciated. Flum I want to hear more of, definitely, especially about his thoughts of the shot.

And RD needs to do more. RD, if you are town, you are doing not much. I'm not convinced you are town. I want you to do your best to give me your thoughts, analyse what happened and hit me hard with your logic.

My time is limited this week and I can't do much about this. I am giving my thoughts as clearly as I can.

Answering Ghug about my assertions, I was clearing Kak because cast the last end vote. He could have killed Bunny and place a vote after EOD as people weren't online and it's auto win. But considering his messages today he could still be scum and just didn't understood the setup.

I also think the wagon on Sweet was opportunistic and probably at least one scum pushed it, that leaves Ghug and Flum. Now I am not sure anymore. But I am still surprised that people pushed a hammer, it makes no sense, unless you are really sure about it and it doesn't seems the case. The only voting we have is D1 were we vote a lurker.

Hammering someone was the correct mechanical play.

Can you elaborate on this? I don't see why it's the best play, unless you are sure the target and his partner aren't online. What am I missing?

[rdrivera2005]

My time is limited this week and I can't do much about this. I am giving my thoughts as clearly as I can.

Answering Ghug about my assertions, I was clearing Kak because cast the last end vote. He could have killed Bunny and place a vote after EOD as people weren't online and it's auto win. But considering his messages today he could still be scum and just didn't understood the setup.

I also think the wagon on Sweet was opportunistic and probably at least one scum pushed it, that leaves Ghug and Flum. Now I am not sure anymore. But I am still surprised that people pushed a hammer, it makes no sense, unless you are really sure about it and it doesn't seems the case. The only voting we have is D1 were we vote a lurker.

Hammering someone was the correct mechanical play.

Can you elaborate on this? I don't see why it's the best play, unless you are sure the target and his partner aren't online. What am I missing?

And in this case the best play would probably be hammering me, not Sweet.

[ghug]

My time is limited this week and I can't do much about this. I am giving my thoughts as clearly as I can.

Answering Ghug about my assertions, I was clearing Kak because cast the last end vote. He could have killed Bunny and place a vote after EOD as people weren't online and it's auto win. But considering his messages today he could still be scum and just didn't understood the setup.

I also think the wagon on Sweet was opportunistic and probably at least one scum pushed it, that leaves Ghug and Flum. Now I am not sure anymore. But I am still surprised that people pushed a hammer, it makes no sense, unless you are really sure about it and it doesn't seems the case. The only voting we have is D1 were we vote a lurker.

Hammering someone was the correct mechanical play.

Can you elaborate on this? I don't see why it's the best play, unless you are sure the target and his partner aren't online. What am I missing?

If that happens, we kill a scum. There's always a chance scum on the block will shoot, and that chance is lowered by hammering. That's a good scenario all around.

The place where it really adds value is that it buys us an extra miskill by preventing scum from shooting period. If scum was planning to shoot shortly before EoD, or had a chance of figuring out it was optimal to shoot, or was going to shoot if on the block, we prevented that, and if scum had shot and we'd miskilled, the game would likely be over.

[Kakarroto]

I've come to the conclusion that it doesn't matter what the real best strategy is, so we shouldn't focus on that, we can leave that for after the game. And honestly I want to spare me the pain, as I've already thought a lot of it and couldn't really see the point. And we have limited time and brainpower for solving, so just after game.

What matters though is what people thought at the time (or at least said they think). That I can fully agree with and that can be helpful to solve the game.

Ghug and Flum are on the "end to gain a misvote" train, as was Bunny.

Kak was on the "mafia needs to save shots for lategame or when just about to being voted out" train.

I think RD was more like on the "save shots" I think? And Jamie was ... hm, I'm unsure what both thought, so better check that. But that has time for later.


Now, I want you to go back mentally to just after the hammer. Kak saw bunny hammer, had his thought of line, waited in the thread, refreshing, looking when worcej came online, not seeing anyone else than occasionally bunny online, or MM popping on (or someone not in this game anymore). Rereading and trying to find a connection. Then worcej finally responded on discord about some GM questions (basically my fear there was that the day didn't end if maf-sweet shot one on his wagon, and I had some questions in case of the no-kill, if mafia could squeeze a shot in while it was hammered - stuff that doesn't really matter now), was just shy of 2pm my time. I think he's pacific, or one timezone to the east, so ghug was probably in the late stage of sleep or maybe woke up too, Flum should've been away I think and RD was on the late morning and probably at work, while Jamie also was at work but just past noon.

Worcej takes a bit, then adjucates the day. Kak is very agitated by the flip with no shot and enters panic mode, nearly loses his correct townread of bunny. After a bit of talking, Bunny is shot about .... half an hour or so? Kak is very surprised, but calms down thinking the late shot-thread has been luckily avoided, even if it had cost us a towny.

Feel free to read it back, but that's how I experienced it. I truly feel it was a huge mistake for mafia to take this shot. If I was mafia, I would've never (ok, never say never - but the probability is so disappearing small) taken that shot if I was mafia there. So, if you think I'm mafia, I still have the bullet. If you are convinced of it you should just vote me. I'm not, but if I haven't convinced you of that right now, I've done a not so good job. But that also means it removes my potential status as the shooter, which decreases my mathematical chance of being mafia.

Why am I talking about this? Because I think the best way is to vote out the mafia who didn't shoot. I'm currently torn between my emotional/gut read (jamie and RD feeling town there) and my logical/brain read (ghug is acting consistently for example). And both clash, but have some overlap. I still could be wrong.

But I had a thought about possible maf-teams and look at today's voting situation, and those were my thoughts:

possible maf-teams:
ghug-flum
ghug-jamie
ghug-RD

flum-jamie
flum-RD

jamie-RD

RD (2) Kakarroto ghug
ghug (2) Jamie RD
not voted: Fluminator

if ghug-RD maf team, both are bussing each other.

if flum-jamie team, doesn't matter both votes are bad

if ghug-flum team, flum might try to save or bus ghug for cred -> has flum the bullet in that case?

if ghug-jamie team, jamie is bussing ghug -> has jamie the bullet in that case?

if flum-RD team, flum might try to save or bus RD for cred -> has flum the bullet in that case?

if jamie-RD team, both are trying to get ghug voted out -> best to stay and hope flum follows

=> only one situation is benefitial for town
=> [random chance] change to either vote flum (3 chances, 2 of which flum has most likely the last bullet), or jamie (2 chances, 1 in which he has the bullet)

=> if I remove jamie as the most unlikely mafia imo, there are 2 chances flum is mafia with the bullet, and 1 where both mafia bus each other

Hmmmm ....

====================

so I went to bed with this thoughts, and woke up realizing that Flum didn't post much today and kinda went to the background. He didn't post after I went to bed too, so I think he has a great chance of being mafia here with this behaviour, trying to find the correct approach to not attract attention, biding time, making sure he survives whatever the cost.

This also tells me that it is likely, that one of RD and ghug is his partner, and he just doesn't want to commit early. He still probes if it's possible to get a misvote of another towny, and lock it in at a later stage, but still ready to bus if it's necessary to safe his own skin.

All that and the increased chance that Flum has the last bullet if he is mafia is pointin towards Flum being the correct vote here if town wants to win. So retreated engagement, the current situation, also if you look at it, nobody is really blaming him for the misvote of sweet; he was second to vote and endvote, so he has the easy opt out of "I was just following orders". But this is also a good spot for mafia to join any wagon to misvote townies. He has neither the consequences for choosing the target, and not the consequences for ending the day; but technically, if he endvoted someone else, say RD, the mood could've easily shifted and we would've voted RD out.

Hm, does that make the team RD-Flum the most likey? Maybe. Am I totally sure about this a la sweet style? No, I could easily be wrong. But this theory explains Flums behaviour holding back, even when he was always there, at least for a bit, to give his thoughts. This silence now from him is letting my hair stand up.

Yeah, I think we need to vote Flum or we will lose

##vote Fluminator