WebMafia Olympics - Game #3 - Raygun's Revenge [GAME THREAD]

[Jamiet99uk]

Just testing if this works for a whole[turquoise]range[/turquoise] of colours or just a few.

OH you have to use " color = ".

Yeah no thanks, that's *more* effort than a few clicks.

AND it only works if you spell "colour" wrong. Yuck.

[Jamiet99uk]

Didn't expect people would be stupid enough to hammer the day again. But I underestimated this capacity.

You were still absent for over 24 hours, regardless of what you predicted may or may not happen during that time. But now you are here, who do you think is the scum team?

My bet is Flum Ghug as I just wrote.

Let's go with it.

##Vote Ghug

[Fluminator]

At this point I will assume Kak is town. If he isn't we already lost so it's a safe assumption.
So it's two from Jamiet-Ghug- Flum. Would both scum Ghug and Flum push the endvote on Sweet? Flum progression from scum team being me and Fhug to hammering Sweet with Ghug look so opportunistic that I feel he thought he could win the game with that miskill.

On the other side Ghug move to vote me is exactly what I think scum would do today.

Maybe it's just them both.

The game is still going, so do you think I failed?

[Kakarroto]

So to keep it simple:
The goal was to squeeze a daykill without mafia shooting, or maybe manipulate scum into shooting early which would be suboptimal for scum. I wasn’t 100% at the time that Sweet was scum, but I was willing to gamble the game Bunny was town. I knew Bunny would understand the assignment if he saw the game with 2 End votes on sweet not including his.

In the scenario Sweet was town, there is no problem if ghug is scum. If ghug is also town, the worst case is 2 of rdr/Jamie/kak coordinate to quickshoot/quickhammer/quickshoot/quickvote which was a risk I was willing to take wouldn’t happen before I woke up.

To go over ghug’s motive. If he was scum pushing for the quickhammer, he was essentially locking himself into not knowing when day would end and thus would have to be relying on a partner to do the shot and be around before the hammer could potentially happen. I think that alone would be within ghug’s scum brain to do, but I don’t think he’d do it if rdr is his partner. Rdr seems to be genuinely lurking and not checking the thread and the gamble to end the game early wouldn’t be worth it for scum ghug in that case.
I also don’t think ghug would be trying to convince partner Kak to endvote with him either. I could maybe see ghug/Jamie scumteam voting Jamie and then moving off, but I still think ghug's more likely town. I see a convoluted town thought process in his actions, and he’s not doing it for town cred since I had to read between the lines to know what he’s doing.

Kak’s motives are so much more confusing to me. I really want to rule him as town for not shooting there, but he continually shows a lack of knowledge of the setup and optimal strategy. It's possible he's scum and not fully understanding of the setup. It's also possible he did understand, but didn't think it was worth the risk to shoot or thought Bunny was bluffing and wouldn't actually end the day.

Rdr and Jamie are probably scum by poe but I need a better grip on Kak’s brain before I commit.

but, why quickshooting before endvoting? The very best strategy for mafia is to hold both shots until it's 3-2, or if one mafia comes close to being voted out to use the shoot then to make it a trade. Mafia would just have needed to wait again that sweet gets voted out yesterday, waiting for today close to EoD, and shooting in a way that guarantees that another towny gets voted out, be it that town is wrong again, or protecting mafia being voted out.

The shot at that time just doesn't make sense to me with removing bunny at that time. It just helps town to have a calm vote without the fear of losing the majority. Given all town would have together and that's a feat in itself, but not only was the time totally wrong, there was only one vote out and no one in danger of getting axed.

Also, it was 5-2, if we had a misvote and a shot yesterday, yes, mafia could've shot today again to make it 2-2 ... but a TIE DOESN'T MAKE US LOSE AUTOMATICALLY, then it is important, who votes first. Sure, with mafia knowing who is town and who is mafia, they just need to be faster, and town need to be correct AND need to be faster, but still, it's not an automatic loss.

So we could've forced a shot with a no-kill, so the next day, we would KNOW that mafia needs to shoot. We could've coordinated better and get more information, who wants whom voted out. If we were wrong, we would be 3-2 again, sure, but we would have more information. If mafia shoots that day, we could still be faster with a fast vote and win with the tie rules, and mafia then has no nk's and if we get to 2-1, we had two chances to vote the remaining mafia out; with two votes or, if there is a misvote, if the last remaining town is faster than mafia, winning again with the tie-rules.

We would be in a huge load of trouble if mafia didn't make this big mistake with having shot early today. We can even think of proceeding with tie-ing and forcing the last shot out. If we feel lucky, we could try to vote out mafia today. But if we vote town out today, that's it; the remaining shot guarantees a mafia win tomorrow if we don't get it right today.

[Kakarroto]

So.

The hammering of Sweet. Sigh.

Bunny was town although I don't like his play here.

Kak was subject to considerable peer pressure. I'll go on to consider his reflections after the flip in due course.

Flum looks a bit sketchy.

Ghug looks extremely scummy.

And, for the fullness of the picture:

I assume Rdrivera was not online - he did not post during the hammering of Sweet.

I was not online and only saw that Sweet had been hammered and Bunny had been shot when I came online an hour or so ago.

If you believe me, I saw only me, MM and another person not playing online (I think from the word guessing game?). But every one of you four has invisibility on, I think, so there could've been some sneaky move.

At least that prevents me from metagaming and interpreting things into it

[Kakarroto]

ok, was that shot trying to colour my impression? Or the impression of others?

hmm, hmm. I saw no one online, except me and MM, and someone not in this game, so at least that keeps me from metagaming. Ok, ok.

Flum, what do you make of this?

Ghug, Jamie, both of you were in bunnys last best guess, thoughts?

RD, where are you?

So we are 3-2 now. Mafia has only one shot left and can't shoot this round. That's at least comforting. If we vote out the mafia with a shot left, we will look much better tomorrow. But we can't afford to vote out town.

We also have one small chance if we no-kill today, and they shoot tomorrow again, but the surviving town members need to be fast and correct. So, thoughts about that?

I mean, either you shot him or it's Jamie and Rd. Either way, I think they were trying to lock him in on being wrong on me, and maybe frame you because you were agitated and ostensibly the only one online.

you think maf-flum could not fake it?

[rdrivera2005]

At this point I will assume Kak is town. If he isn't we already lost so it's a safe assumption.
So it's two from Jamiet-Ghug- Flum. Would both scum Ghug and Flum push the endvote on Sweet? Flum progression from scum team being me and Fhug to hammering Sweet with Ghug look so opportunistic that I feel he thought he could win the game with that miskill.

On the other side Ghug move to vote me is exactly what I think scum would do today.

Maybe it's just them both.

The game is still going, so do you think I failed?

No. Even if scum have killed yesterday the game will still be going as 2 x 2 without a shot isn't a Mafia win (I think).
Só, I think you succeded in miskilling a town and entering KILO with an obvious miskill to push (me).

[Fluminator]

So to keep it simple:
The goal was to squeeze a daykill without mafia shooting, or maybe manipulate scum into shooting early which would be suboptimal for scum. I wasn’t 100% at the time that Sweet was scum, but I was willing to gamble the game Bunny was town. I knew Bunny would understand the assignment if he saw the game with 2 End votes on sweet not including his.

In the scenario Sweet was town, there is no problem if ghug is scum. If ghug is also town, the worst case is 2 of rdr/Jamie/kak coordinate to quickshoot/quickhammer/quickshoot/quickvote which was a risk I was willing to take wouldn’t happen before I woke up.

To go over ghug’s motive. If he was scum pushing for the quickhammer, he was essentially locking himself into not knowing when day would end and thus would have to be relying on a partner to do the shot and be around before the hammer could potentially happen. I think that alone would be within ghug’s scum brain to do, but I don’t think he’d do it if rdr is his partner. Rdr seems to be genuinely lurking and not checking the thread and the gamble to end the game early wouldn’t be worth it for scum ghug in that case.
I also don’t think ghug would be trying to convince partner Kak to endvote with him either. I could maybe see ghug/Jamie scumteam voting Jamie and then moving off, but I still think ghug's more likely town. I see a convoluted town thought process in his actions, and he’s not doing it for town cred since I had to read between the lines to know what he’s doing.

Kak’s motives are so much more confusing to me. I really want to rule him as town for not shooting there, but he continually shows a lack of knowledge of the setup and optimal strategy. It's possible he's scum and not fully understanding of the setup. It's also possible he did understand, but didn't think it was worth the risk to shoot or thought Bunny was bluffing and wouldn't actually end the day.

Rdr and Jamie are probably scum by poe but I need a better grip on Kak’s brain before I commit.

but, why quickshooting before endvoting? The very best strategy for mafia is to hold both shots until it's 3-2, or if one mafia comes close to being voted out to use the shoot then to make it a trade. Mafia would just have needed to wait again that sweet gets voted out yesterday, waiting for today close to EoD, and shooting in a way that guarantees that another towny gets voted out, be it that town is wrong again, or protecting mafia being voted out.

The shot at that time just doesn't make sense to me with removing bunny at that time. It just helps town to have a calm vote without the fear of losing the majority. Given all town would have together and that's a feat in itself, but not only was the time totally wrong, there was only one vote out and no one in danger of getting axed.

Also, it was 5-2, if we had a misvote and a shot yesterday, yes, mafia could've shot today again to make it 2-2 ... but a TIE DOESN'T MAKE US LOSE AUTOMATICALLY, then it is important, who votes first. Sure, with mafia knowing who is town and who is mafia, they just need to be faster, and town need to be correct AND need to be faster, but still, it's not an automatic loss.

So we could've forced a shot with a no-kill, so the next day, we would KNOW that mafia needs to shoot. We could've coordinated better and get more information, who wants whom voted out. If we were wrong, we would be 3-2 again, sure, but we would have more information. If mafia shoots that day, we could still be faster with a fast vote and win with the tie rules, and mafia then has no nk's and if we get to 2-1, we had two chances to vote the remaining mafia out; with two votes or, if there is a misvote, if the last remaining town is faster than mafia, winning again with the tie-rules.

We would be in a huge load of trouble if mafia didn't make this big mistake with having shot early today. We can even think of proceeding with tie-ing and forcing the last shot out. If we feel lucky, we could try to vote out mafia today. But if we vote town out today, that's it; the remaining shot guarantees a mafia win tomorrow if we don't get it right today.

My brain is not able to process everything in this post. I don't understand why you'd want to bring this to a tiebreaker where it's a race and town still has to be correct in their initial vote, instead of what we currently have in a pretty clean KILO situation.

We still have to be correct either way, one just requires a speed game on top of being correct.

[Kakarroto]

Can you clarify what this bit refers to, Kak?

You didn't sub into this game.

I subbed in into the previous bodybuilders & gamblers game. Sweet did praise my high energy into the game as a sub (compared it to Arnie pushing people to "get to the choppa")

ghug here also came in with high energy and stuff, but sweet didn't see it like my entrance last game. Maybe there are different things, but I think it was at least comparable?

Oh I see.

Off the top of my head, I don't recall how I reacted to your entrance that game.

Was that the one where I was killed N1 or am I mis-remembering....?

yeah, exactly.

The game where I was about 2 seconds away of eternal glory, with trying to compromise on kotp, at the last 10 seconds both brian and chaqa joined, but I didn't see that, and changed my vote away. That forced a tie (due to an invisible vote from our champion - town PR) ... so if I had stayed, we would've voted out kotp as the gambler, clearing chaqa, and seeing how evil damo was that game

but alas

[Kakarroto]

[blue]Just[/blue] [white]testing[/while] if [cyan]this[/cyan] [mauve]works[/mauve] for a [lavender]whole[/lavender] [turquoise]range[/turquoise] of [magnolia]colours[/magnolia] or just a few.

you need to use the [ color=blue ] insert text, but remove the spaces from the code [ /color ]

[Kakarroto]

Just testing if this works for a whole[turquoise]range[/turquoise] of colours or just a few.

OH you have to use " color = ".

Yeah no thanks, that's *more* effort than a few clicks.

AND it only works if you spell "colour" wrong. Yuck.

yeah, I had to train myself to write colour that way for it

[Jamiet99uk]

So.

The hammering of Sweet. Sigh.

Bunny was town although I don't like his play here.

Kak was subject to considerable peer pressure. I'll go on to consider his reflections after the flip in due course.

Flum looks a bit sketchy.

Ghug looks extremely scummy.

And, for the fullness of the picture:

I assume Rdrivera was not online - he did not post during the hammering of Sweet.

I was not online and only saw that Sweet had been hammered and Bunny had been shot when I came online an hour or so ago.

If you believe me, I saw only me, MM and another person not playing online (I think from the word guessing game?). But every one of you four has invisibility on, I think, so there could've been some sneaky move.

At least that prevents me from metagaming and interpreting things into it

I forgot totally that I had forum invisibility on. I think I reflexively set it before game start because BunnyGo was in the game and he has previously been a bit obsessive about tracking who is online, to the point of it being a bit of a distraction.

I've turned it off.

[Kakarroto]

ok, for flum, these were two posts I had prepared, but ghug told me to shut my mouth before:

Let's think this through:

5-2
no-kill
5-2
forced vote + forced shot
a) 3-2
aa) 2-2 through maf-shot => No-Kill/Tie Voting Modification comes into effect
aaa) both mafia don't vote together and maybe busses -> scruffy but winnable
aab) both mafia vote together and tie occurs -> oldest vote placed on a player decides (town just needs to be faster than mafia)

ab) 2-2 through vote => mafia wins due to having a shot left

b) 4-1 (as in, we actually get the vote right) -> surviving maf probably had shot unused, so lets think with that
ba) 3-1 maf holds shot
baa) 2-1 -> a very dangerous situation, if maf is first to vote, he can just shoot the other town and wins with the tiebreaker. If mafia is second to vote, he can just shoot the quicker one and has the tiebreaker (although doesn't need to shoot if the first one votes the second town). And if maf is the slowest, and both town don't vote him, he can just shoot one (the one that votes him) and vote the other town, and get the 'oldest vote' tie breaker back. So we win here ONLY if both surviving town players are faster and vote correctly the mafia.

bb) 3-1 but maf shoots
bba) 2-1 with the shot used -> if town finds each other, town victory. If maf successfully blends in, well played. If there is a tie, the fastest one decides the fate. In this case, we have a slight advantage, I think; sure, maf can just vote any of the two and don't think about it, but both town have a 50/50 if they are unsure, and we have double of the town players compared to mafia, so chances are that town is faster. Just hope that our surviving member gets it right there.

bc) after a successful vote to a 4-1, we tie again to force the last shot out
bca) 3-0 we got it right. Yay!
bcb) 2-1 -> see "bba)"

If we don't force mafia to shoot, they will either hold the shot even longer (if we are wrong) OR shot in the last minute if they are the vote target.

I think we HAVE to no-kill today, and after the forced vote&shot day, HAVE to force a no-kill vote again to make the mafia toothless and set the stage for our surviving town members as good as we can.


also, thinking about endvotes in case some people "lose interest because nothing is happening": I think we can't hammer the forced day to make mafia 'miss the shot' and get punished for not complying to the GM ruling, but lets ask worcej.

@@askGM In case we have a no-kill vote succeeding, forcing town and mafia to use their kill-ability/vote the next day, what happens if that day was hammered and mafia doesn't shoot? What if town hammers that day with "no-kill" and mafia doesn't shoot? What happens if town hammers with "no-kill" but mafia shoots? What if town hammers with a mafia as target and mafia doesn't shoot? What if town hammers with town as a target and mafia doesn't shoot?


My best guess here is that the no-kill modification rules come into play even with shots available, so probably not a good idea for town to do it (on top of openly and actively going against the GM ruling - just to clarify, I don't ask anyone to go against worcej's guiding, I just want to know what would happen, if it happens). But mafia can very easily draw the shot out very long, whereas town has to openly cooperate and mafia has plenty of time to lay back and choose.

So, maybe a time limit for the forced mafia shot after a no-kill+no-shot day would be in place? But I don't know for when to put that deadline, or if that even would be fair/rule and settings conform here. But that's a thing for worcej to figure out

=========

Trying to reset-thoughts

5-2 - mafia has 2 shots still
vote out town, no shot
4-2
vote out town, no shot
3-2
vote out town, no shot
2-2
vote out town or shoot one of the two bullets -> dominating maf win

5-2
vote out town, no shot
4-2
vote out town, shot
2-2
maf wins by just shooting one town

5-2
vote out town, no shot
4-2
vote out mafia, shot
3-1
vote out mafia, shot
2-0
town win

5-2
vote out town, no shot
4-2
vote out mafia, shot
3-1
vote out town, no shot
2-1
maf can shoot and win by No-Tie rules. Town has chances to win, but very low

5-2
vote out mafia, shot
4-1
vote out town, no shot
3-1
vote out town, no shot
2-1
see above

5-2
accidentally tie, shot (or shot forcing a tie)
4-2
likely overwhelming vote out mafia that shot last day (with bussing), no shot
4-1
vote out town that was fooled, no shot
3-1
town implodes heavily, votes another town, no shot
2-1
see above

5-2
accidentally tie, shot (or shot forcing a tie)
4-2
likely overwhelming vote out mafia that shot last day (with bussing), no shot
4-1
trying to reduce PoE, vote out town, no shot
3-1
do or die, two town voting maf, one town flails hard, maf tries to vote with flailing town, at the last second shoots one town voting for maf but vote ties
2-1
flailing town realizing what happened, votes out maf, town win

5-2
accidentally tie, shot (or shot forcing a tie)
4-2
likely overwhelming vote out mafia that shot last day (with bussing), no shot
4-1
trying to reduce PoE, vote out town, no shot
3-1
do or die, two town voting maf, one town flails hard, maf tries to tie with flailing town -> no kill due to tie
3-1
forced vote&forced shot, long tie again, maf waits until the last second, shoots a town voting the maf that's not the vote target, town loses votepower
1-1
now it just counts who votes faster, 50/50. Well, maybe in favour of mafia still, since they would know exactly what happened. So I guess 60/40, if I had to put it in numbers.

========

the earlier we would've gotten rid of the shots for mafia, the better. The kill power just increases by every day. If I had realized that we could trade a forced vote with a forced shot, as worcej said when I asked him, I would've pushed for a no-kill since D1. But I only asked about it and worcej answered it on ... D3 I think? Yeah, should've been D3.

[rdrivera2005]

At this point I will assume Kak is town. If he isn't we already lost so it's a safe assumption.
So it's two from Jamiet-Ghug- Flum. Would both scum Ghug and Flum push the endvote on Sweet? Flum progression from scum team being me and Fhug to hammering Sweet with Ghug look so opportunistic that I feel he thought he could win the game with that miskill.

On the other side Ghug move to vote me is exactly what I think scum would do today.

Maybe it's just them both.

The game is still going, so do you think I failed?

No. Even if scum have killed yesterday the game will still be going as 2 x 2 without a shot isn't a Mafia win (I think).
Só, I think you succeded in miskilling a town and entering KILO with an obvious miskill to push (me).

After Kak post I re-read the rules and I think Mafia just lost a sure win yesterday. Entering today with a 3-2 would be almost auto unless two town vote before scum can vote.

So, maybe I am wrong on you.

##vote Ghug

[rdrivera2005]

ok, for flum, these were two posts I had prepared, but ghug told me to shut my mouth before:

Let's think this through:

5-2
no-kill
5-2
forced vote + forced shot
a) 3-2
aa) 2-2 through maf-shot => No-Kill/Tie Voting Modification comes into effect
aaa) both mafia don't vote together and maybe busses -> scruffy but winnable
aab) both mafia vote together and tie occurs -> oldest vote placed on a player decides (town just needs to be faster than mafia)

ab) 2-2 through vote => mafia wins due to having a shot left

b) 4-1 (as in, we actually get the vote right) -> surviving maf probably had shot unused, so lets think with that
ba) 3-1 maf holds shot
baa) 2-1 -> a very dangerous situation, if maf is first to vote, he can just shoot the other town and wins with the tiebreaker. If mafia is second to vote, he can just shoot the quicker one and has the tiebreaker (although doesn't need to shoot if the first one votes the second town). And if maf is the slowest, and both town don't vote him, he can just shoot one (the one that votes him) and vote the other town, and get the 'oldest vote' tie breaker back. So we win here ONLY if both surviving town players are faster and vote correctly the mafia.

bb) 3-1 but maf shoots
bba) 2-1 with the shot used -> if town finds each other, town victory. If maf successfully blends in, well played. If there is a tie, the fastest one decides the fate. In this case, we have a slight advantage, I think; sure, maf can just vote any of the two and don't think about it, but both town have a 50/50 if they are unsure, and we have double of the town players compared to mafia, so chances are that town is faster. Just hope that our surviving member gets it right there.

bc) after a successful vote to a 4-1, we tie again to force the last shot out
bca) 3-0 we got it right. Yay!
bcb) 2-1 -> see "bba)"

If we don't force mafia to shoot, they will either hold the shot even longer (if we are wrong) OR shot in the last minute if they are the vote target.

I think we HAVE to no-kill today, and after the forced vote&shot day, HAVE to force a no-kill vote again to make the mafia toothless and set the stage for our surviving town members as good as we can.


also, thinking about endvotes in case some people "lose interest because nothing is happening": I think we can't hammer the forced day to make mafia 'miss the shot' and get punished for not complying to the GM ruling, but lets ask worcej.

@@askGM In case we have a no-kill vote succeeding, forcing town and mafia to use their kill-ability/vote the next day, what happens if that day was hammered and mafia doesn't shoot? What if town hammers that day with "no-kill" and mafia doesn't shoot? What happens if town hammers with "no-kill" but mafia shoots? What if town hammers with a mafia as target and mafia doesn't shoot? What if town hammers with town as a target and mafia doesn't shoot?


My best guess here is that the no-kill modification rules come into play even with shots available, so probably not a good idea for town to do it (on top of openly and actively going against the GM ruling - just to clarify, I don't ask anyone to go against worcej's guiding, I just want to know what would happen, if it happens). But mafia can very easily draw the shot out very long, whereas town has to openly cooperate and mafia has plenty of time to lay back and choose.

So, maybe a time limit for the forced mafia shot after a no-kill+no-shot day would be in place? But I don't know for when to put that deadline, or if that even would be fair/rule and settings conform here. But that's a thing for worcej to figure out

=========

Trying to reset-thoughts

5-2 - mafia has 2 shots still
vote out town, no shot
4-2
vote out town, no shot
3-2
vote out town, no shot
2-2
vote out town or shoot one of the two bullets -> dominating maf win

5-2
vote out town, no shot
4-2
vote out town, shot
2-2
maf wins by just shooting one town

5-2
vote out town, no shot
4-2
vote out mafia, shot
3-1
vote out mafia, shot
2-0
town win

5-2
vote out town, no shot
4-2
vote out mafia, shot
3-1
vote out town, no shot
2-1
maf can shoot and win by No-Tie rules. Town has chances to win, but very low

5-2
vote out mafia, shot
4-1
vote out town, no shot
3-1
vote out town, no shot
2-1
see above

5-2
accidentally tie, shot (or shot forcing a tie)
4-2
likely overwhelming vote out mafia that shot last day (with bussing), no shot
4-1
vote out town that was fooled, no shot
3-1
town implodes heavily, votes another town, no shot
2-1
see above

5-2
accidentally tie, shot (or shot forcing a tie)
4-2
likely overwhelming vote out mafia that shot last day (with bussing), no shot
4-1
trying to reduce PoE, vote out town, no shot
3-1
do or die, two town voting maf, one town flails hard, maf tries to vote with flailing town, at the last second shoots one town voting for maf but vote ties
2-1
flailing town realizing what happened, votes out maf, town win

5-2
accidentally tie, shot (or shot forcing a tie)
4-2
likely overwhelming vote out mafia that shot last day (with bussing), no shot
4-1
trying to reduce PoE, vote out town, no shot
3-1
do or die, two town voting maf, one town flails hard, maf tries to tie with flailing town -> no kill due to tie
3-1
forced vote&forced shot, long tie again, maf waits until the last second, shoots a town voting the maf that's not the vote target, town loses votepower
1-1
now it just counts who votes faster, 50/50. Well, maybe in favour of mafia still, since they would know exactly what happened. So I guess 60/40, if I had to put it in numbers.

========

the earlier we would've gotten rid of the shots for mafia, the better. The kill power just increases by every day. If I had realized that we could trade a forced vote with a forced shot, as worcej said when I asked him, I would've pushed for a no-kill since D1. But I only asked about it and worcej answered it on ... D3 I think? Yeah, should've been D3.

I don't get what you are saying. We need to kill scum today. Period. If we no kill scum just need to cast first or second (because they can kill first voter) vote at day start to win. It's suicide to enter tomorrow with 3-2 and scum with a shot.

[ghug]

Rdr has been absent for a long time.

Didn't expect people would be stupid enough to hammer the day again. But I underestimated this capacity.

What was stupid about it?

[ghug]

Maybe I'm not getting something and overlooking things, but from what I've seen in my look/analysis of it, the longer we wait, the worse it gets.

I'm I just that blind? I mean, you had access to the setting info sooner since you checked it due to kouncil, so I guess that's it? But man, you trying to stop me from talking about it gives me some maf-vibes there. But alright, fine, I'll stop for now and have a closer look.

If I get shot, @everyone keep that in mind though

Wow look at Kak doubling down on discussing Mafia strategy even when being counselled to cease.

I still think it would've been much better, especially with this result, that we should've tried to defang mafia, robbing them of their shots earlier. Now we got lucky that mafia shot so early today, for whatever reason. But you all seem to think we did the towny thing? I remain unconvinced

Why did you hammer if you still don't understanding why it was the optimal play?

[ghug]

At this point I will assume Kak is town. If he isn't we already lost so it's a safe assumption.
So it's two from Jamiet-Ghug- Flum. Would both scum Ghug and Flum push the endvote on Sweet? Flum progression from scum team being me and Fhug to hammering Sweet with Ghug look so opportunistic that I feel he thought he could win the game with that miskill.

On the other side Ghug move to vote me is exactly what I think scum would do today.

Maybe it's just them both.

I'm going to need you to explain all of these assertions.

[Kakarroto]

So, I'm fairly confident jamie is town. At least his posts and conclusion of what happened with the endvotes looked very correct, and it looks very much like a try to solve. Maybe I'm wrong, but I will not vote jamie today.

I'm still very sus of RD's activity. However, I've seen both MM and ImpWill being town despite their low contribution, and we have no more removals left for information etc. ... but I'm not convinced RD is town.

ghug was suspected by both sweet and bunny. ghug was the driving force for the misvote, he could've chosen anyone to vote out, but it happened to be a town. Given that sweet didn't looked the purest of town and I too had my suspicions, but a maf-ghug could be very happy just trying to act towny and have a low risk endvote

from my earlier observations, I judged flum's risk of being mafia low. I'm not sure now if that's correct, I'll have to re-evalue. So the mafia team is either ghug-RD, ghug-flum or flum-RD.

If RD is mafia, we will most likely find nothing that could even connect him to his maf-partner. Ghug as a sub would only have marginal contact chances with his partner. Maybe, if flum is mafia, we could see something with the heartthrob connection, but heart too was missing, so very questionable.

I fear we wont have any good chances to see a connection. Even ghug and flum voting together, if they are the two maf, might not even have a findable connection. There was this 'aha'-moment from flum ... maybe he saw a signal from ghug to follow? I don't know. I should look back if I find something.

that reminds me, ghug said something about any connections to my 'maf-partner', when he voted me D1, then went off of me.

@ghug did you check back for my potential maf-partner? Did you find anyone who might've bussed me?

[ghug]

ok, was that shot trying to colour my impression? Or the impression of others?

hmm, hmm. I saw no one online, except me and MM, and someone not in this game, so at least that keeps me from metagaming. Ok, ok.

Flum, what do you make of this?

Ghug, Jamie, both of you were in bunnys last best guess, thoughts?

RD, where are you?

So we are 3-2 now. Mafia has only one shot left and can't shoot this round. That's at least comforting. If we vote out the mafia with a shot left, we will look much better tomorrow. But we can't afford to vote out town.

We also have one small chance if we no-kill today, and they shoot tomorrow again, but the surviving town members need to be fast and correct. So, thoughts about that?

I mean, either you shot him or it's Jamie and Rd. Either way, I think they were trying to lock him in on being wrong on me, and maybe frame you because you were agitated and ostensibly the only one online.

you think maf-flum could not fake it?

If Flum were mafia, he would have shot yesterday once he realized that shooting yesterday lost us a miskill, and the game would be over now. This is the same reason I was townreading Bunny all day yesterday, as I believed that he understood the same.

My voting pool is the people who didn't realize this, since mafia didn't shoot yesterday.