WebMafia Olympics - Game #3 - Raygun's Revenge [GAME THREAD]

[worcej]

D3 FINAL VOTE COUNT:
sweetandcool (4) ghug*, BunnyGo*, Fluminator*, Kakarroto*
ghug (2) Jamiet99uk, sweetandcool
Fluminator (1) rdrivera2005

D3 Flavor:
Even break dancers need to sleep, especially those who travel for competitions. Raygun used this to her advantage and took some sweet "revenge" on another breaker when they were the most vulnerable.

sweetandcool HAS DIED! HE WAS SWEET, THE BREAK DANCER!

You may now post.

[Kakarroto]

while all that sweet-endvote commotion (page 36-37) happened, I had written this but held back the posting when I saw sweet coming online, but I still wanted to share this with you:

I don't know. I had so many thoughts clashing of saying some things now and others that said I definitely shouldn't. I just don't know what to believe anymore.

Let's step a step back, and look at the situation: we are pretty divided in our thoughts of who might be mafia.

Mafia might have no night-chat, and ghug thought this is a major hindrance for mafia, at least in terms of information. But is it? Looking at the current players, I would say that everyone here has at least an above average ability to understand (maybe I'm overestimating myself) it. So chances are that mafia are full aware of the setup is quite high and don't even need to communicate in private to be full effective.

We as town have not good info right now, since no nk's. The bigger the group is, the lower the percentage that town randomly gets it right and votes a mafia. Also the percentage of the mafia shot increases every time it isn't used in a day.

Why would mafia ever want to shoot earlier than necessary? Ok, the once per day might be limiting, but town just don't have the ability to vote out two people per day. So even if mafia has to trade, they will keep their high effectiveness, so it's just great for us to force them to shoot earlier, no?

========

alright, between phases now. Hope we don't have maf-bunny here and I was awfully wrong town reading him. Don't know if we are correct, but flum is probably town, ghug feels good too, but I'm afraid of him fooling me (again).

Hope worcej wakes up soon, I really want to know what we are dealing with here. If sweet flips town, we only have an extremely small chance to not lose, right? So we need to vote out mafia as fast as we can. That's why I didn't want to end, but with my read of flum and bunny, it just tipped the scale. Really hope I'm not wrong here.

Chances are that all of us are just wrongfully ending on town, that would make jamie and RD a team ... could that be true? Maybe I should check this. But it could also be true that mafia just ended with us here ... so who is the likely mafia?

With flums reaction, endvoting as second, I think he has the least chances of mafia of the three if we just look at their reactions/reasons. Ghug could be a crafty mafia setting it all up. Would he stick his neck out this much just for a misvote? Maaaybe, but that's also on the lower end of probabilities, at least from what I think. I townread bunny the most of all the players before the endvote, but I have still doubts, and from what it looks like, bunny could've been just enthusiastic getting a misvote.

Chances are sweet was bussed, but that's also low in my opinion. If sweet flips mafia, I think bunny is locktown. ghug and flum less so, but it should be good enough. we will be at 5-1, so we could take an infoflip if people are not sure who is sweets partner.

We definitely don't need to hammer that day, if sweet flips mafia, and we could even try to no-kill to force mafia's last shot out, if we are really unsure before the endgame. That way mafia can't win easily when it's 2-1.

If sweet flips town, we definitely need to hammer. But who? RD? Jamie? Bunny? Ghug? I think not Flum in that case.

Ok, I'll try to get a read in with the think of 'sweet will flip town', maybe I see something more that helps get a good endvote target here.

===
quick update, it's 12:30 noon here, about two hours after the hammer, and bunny still hasn't upvoted my endvote on sweet. Feeling of sweet is just town rising. Sweets page 9 comment also enforces this feeling. I hope I didn't make a huge mistake. When does worcej wake up?
===
ok, sweets post on page 11 quoting flum makes me less afraid. And it's another small thing that flum isn't maf-partnered with sweet. Yeah, Flum is off the list of potential panic endvotes.
===
if sweet flips maf, he surly made an effort to single jamie out. How likely is this? How likely would he do this to a town? How likely to his maf-partner?
===
ghug's stance on page 18 looks quite good. I don't think he does that as mafia, especially when subbing in within the last two hours. yeah, remove ghug from the panic endvote list.
===
sweets reaction on page 19 to me makes me feel we got it wrong though. Panic endvote need increases in possibility
===
and jamie being mafia loses stock too with page 19, a nice, personal feeling yet pretty accurate description of me and what goes on in my head ... not 100% convinced yet, but at this point of the game, just before EoD, I don't think this was buddying
===
bunny's comment towards sweet on the same page just before EoD is somewhat creeping up ... "Why do you make it hard to townread you?" he said ... yeah, I might've heavily blinded by bunny
===
sweet just a second or two before EoD posting "Oh good I scared him." to Flum doesn't read as mafia in any way, or at least his desire to vote out ImpWill was truly genuine. Yeah, heavy alarmbells.
===
sweets urgent drive on ImpWill doesn't feel too good, but if sweet truly believed he was mafia, understandable. A bit strange logic with the 'not shooting the bullet', as jamie points out, but sweet could be town here. I'd argue it looks more like town trying to get one advantage, as mafia wouldn't have the need to rush here, right? And Jamie looks good too for pointing it out, I think. Hmm. Bunny's reactions look fine enough too. Hmm. A bit strange is that both jamie and sweet thought that ImpWill didn't have enough participation? ghug questioning sweet about how confident he is (or looks like) is also a nice touch. Jamie pointing out the (probably) shortest D2 in webdip history is ... a strange thought at this point? Ah well, should be NAI, I have lots of weird thoughts all the time
===
aftermath of D2, in early D3, ghug looks fine with his comments about the votes. Is a bit sus of me, but I guess that's fair. Sweet still talking about how ImpWill should've been modkilled? I just don't know how he could've gotten that, with the 1 post+vote minimum - but it would've only led to a substitution. Heart would've been if not subbed out, but it would just lead to a bit later entrance of ghug then. So what was he on about, as either town or mafia?
===
sweet saying ghug is hardcore pocketing, I'm on page 23 and worcej is online, so I'll stop reading here and engage in potential panic endvote mode

shoot, who to vote? err ... not flum, not ghug, not jamie ... I guess it's RD? bunny maybe too? argh ...

##vote bunny
##end

waiting for worcej to proceed - still got no upvote - is bunny actual mafia? - also sorry worcej for filling your discord PM box

[BunnyGo]

Well shit.

But kaka and I are mech cleared here.

[Kakarroto]

Well shit.

But kaka and I are mech cleared here.

wait, mech cleared? How? You mean the shot? Why would mafia shoot here if sweet is town?

[BunnyGo]

Stop it kaka.

You and I are cleared.

Either of us could have messaged worcej to shoot our non-partner among Jamie and rdr and the game would have been won.

[BunnyGo]

It would have then been 3-2 with our partner still having a shot

[BunnyGo]

As it is. We’re 4-2 with scum having 2 shots. So we’re in trouble

[Kakarroto]

uuugh ... not sure. Guess that's right. More panic!

##vote RD
##end

[BunnyGo]

Unfortunately I need to pack and catch a train in 2 hours. But will be around later.

[Kakarroto]

It would have then been 3-2 with our partner still having a shot

but making a tie doesn't lead to a auto-maf win

then the tie rules apply

[BunnyGo]

uuugh ... not sure. Guess that's right. More panic!

##vote RD
##end

Why rd?

[worcej]

GM Note:
I'll be at a customer today, so if you hammer things up early or issue orders, understand it may be awhile for me to get to them.

Also, this was asked multiple times, but a hammer ends a phase and all posting (regardless of GM availability) like all other games, so shot orders cannot be submitted after a hammer has been issued in the game, regardless of me not posting a hold.

The intention of the honoring a shot until the "please hold" was issued at end of day phases was to allow shots to happen right at end of phases if necessary, not as a tool to "game" phase hammers.

[Kakarroto]

uuugh ... not sure. Guess that's right. More panic!

##vote RD
##end

Why rd?

why not?

at least I don't know at this point. Ghug and flum and jamie looked fine enough. Who would you vote now? I still think your fast end looks really not good on you.

[BunnyGo]

uuugh ... not sure. Guess that's right. More panic!

##vote RD
##end

Why rd?

why not?

at least I don't know at this point. Ghug and flum and jamie looked fine enough. Who would you vote now? I still think your fast end looks really not good on you.

We need 4 hammers to end the day. So unlikely the 4 town accurately get it in before scum shoot.

[BunnyGo]

I don’t think we need to rush.

[BunnyGo]

uuugh ... not sure. Guess that's right. More panic!

##vote RD
##end

Why rd?

why not?

at least I don't know at this point. Ghug and flum and jamie looked fine enough. Who would you vote now? I still think your fast end looks really not good on you.

And yet I’m cleared. I would have certainly shot before hammering sweet.

[BunnyGo]

Why rd?

why not?

at least I don't know at this point. Ghug and flum and jamie looked fine enough. Who would you vote now? I still think your fast end looks really not good on you.

And yet I’m cleared. I would have certainly shot before hammering sweet.

Personally I think it’s 2 of ghug-Jamie-rdr.

[BunnyGo]

why not?

at least I don't know at this point. Ghug and flum and jamie looked fine enough. Who would you vote now? I still think your fast end looks really not good on you.

And yet I’m cleared. I would have certainly shot before hammering sweet.

Personally I think it’s 2 of ghug-Jamie-rdr.

But I think we have lots of time to investigate. And I don’t think hammering to try and catch scum from using a shot works today.

[Kakarroto]

Why rd?

why not?

at least I don't know at this point. Ghug and flum and jamie looked fine enough. Who would you vote now? I still think your fast end looks really not good on you.

And yet I’m cleared. I would have certainly shot before hammering sweet.

I don't think you are mech cleared, and neither am I. Sadly. Would help us, but yeah.

But I'm feeling a little better. Maybe there is no need to rush. I still stay here for now.

Before you go, who do you think is mafia then?

[BunnyGo]

why not?

at least I don't know at this point. Ghug and flum and jamie looked fine enough. Who would you vote now? I still think your fast end looks really not good on you.

And yet I’m cleared. I would have certainly shot before hammering sweet.

I don't think you are mech cleared, and neither am I. Sadly. Would help us, but yeah.

But I'm feeling a little better. Maybe there is no need to rush. I still stay here for now.

Before you go, who do you think is mafia then?

Scenario: Bunny (me!) is scum and had a gun.

After you ended, I message worcej “shoot rdr” (assuming rdr is town, if he’s scum I shoot jamie). Then ended on sweet.

Now it’s 3-2 with my partner having a shot to immediately make it 2-2.