Mafia XL - A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Forum

[yavuzovic]

@ Yav - I still don't understand what has changed your mind about Demon... you claim to have always been scumreading Damo because - Damo gave trash reads D1 and nit picked your use of "we" ... but you still voted Demon D1 and I haven't seen what has changed.

You're wrong. Yes I voted Demon for that reason but I didn't really vote for damo only for those. Since damo wagon was saved twice, I suspect.
Durga got off damo wagon first and she didn't give a good reasoning. I have been townreading her for a long time but this is very suspicious move. I'm reconsidering my reads about her. Peter just OMGUSsed and I don't think we can read him anymore. Bo was the second voter on peterlund wagon and he didn't give anything so he is now in my scumpool. Ghug's post is terrible too. Once I look again nobody gave a reasoning to pass to Peter wagon. What a bad wagon, smells like scums were on it.

[yavuzovic]

I firmly believe we need to lynch flash or damo tomorrow. Case coming eon.

^ agree

[yavuzovic]

I haven't had much time to look at Durga, but her attitude seems generally townie. Also, Bad reads list < no reads list < good reads list. The game I was scum I felt pressured to put up a reads list and it was terrible and got me lynched.

Do not let you get tricked by her cosy chit-chat, appraising someone's comment denouncing someone's else's comment but still refusing to make ANY STATEMENT of her own. She is "fake" in this game. I have played her before, and she normally makes more sense than she does here.

Is it possible Peter is right here? As I saw until the page which I found thid post in, I thought Durga was very towny but I need to ISO her posts and read carefully. I'm starting to get bad vibes from her.

[yavuzovic]

Gonna read up and see where I stand on this damo thing but before I do the other people I would consider voting today are peterlund, Ike, Balki, and worcej in no particular order.

Very suspicious post, this was before he voted for peterlund and I still don't know why he voted for peterlund. It's like he was trying to create a way to vote for peterlund. You'll say he is free to vote for his scumreads but scumreads require reasons, ha?

[yavuzovic]

I really feel like Squigs protected Jamie's spot (Flash)
##vote Squigs

If you look carefully at the posts you quoted me for, you will see that I was criticizing people for voting for a modkill spot, since it was like a no-lynch. After establishing that fact, I said I townread Jamie, but if others scumread him, then a vote on him would be logically valid. That is my stance on anyone I townread.

So yes, I was protecting Jamie's spot the same way I would protect Vecna's spot if a vote started on him, because I townread Vecna as well. If you want to vote me for townreading people, go for it. It just seems strange that you would vote me over Jamie (Flash), since it seems that your scumread on me is based entirely off the fact that Jamie is scum.

@ Yav - It seems like you are really forcing a vote against Squigs here... especially since at the time you felt like Squigs was making a good point and dropped your Jamie push for Demon and the time...

The whole "this is what scum would do in this situation" thing is very common on Webdip. Lots of people use this thinking, and almost everyone that uses it gets called out for it, but it really isn't correlated with being scum. Demon is grasping at reasons to vote anyone.

Also about Demon's comment on thd pushing a Xorxes obvtown:
Xorxes has not been obvtown this game. thd gives reasoning behind his votes, and freely admits that they are based more off of his feelings of Xorxes' interactions with others.

Both of Demon's votes look forced to me, and he has posted very little else in content.

##Vote DemonRHK

I agree, I will follow this because that's exactly what RHK has done so far. ##vote DemonRhK
Because after reading Squigs' post about why we shouldn't vote for Jamie I want to vote someone else and it's probably RHK. It will be awesome if we catch a scum D1!

I saw the same thing Squigs saw there and if I am misunderstanding or misremembering how this went down someone please tell me cause its the second biggest factor in why i am voting Yav (first being I dont understand his moving on from Demon)

I was voting for Squigs when I was focused on the little part of the game where I create cases and I follow them. But when I opened my eyes and saw the bigger picture, I started to scumread Demon for the reasons in the second quote in your post. Also I got off from Squigs wagon for the reasons in the underlined quote.

[Balki Bartokomous]

We can't ignore two day's of vote patterns. That's real data and we have two very real mislynches where a set of players just so happen to be involved in both. If you don't want people to look at vote patterns and data how do you intend to solve this? Just ignore it.

...

All I have to look at is the voting patterns and data Balki. That's hard fact. ...A vote is a data point and when you have two days of voting data coupled with circumstantial statements you can start to create a picture of the game. I expect total utilization of everything going into D3 not just circumstantial cases alone. That's cheap.

No, I'm not suggesting that people ignore vote patterns. I agree that voting patterns are important information to consider.

Let me put my critique this way: Do you think that voting to lynch a townie on both Day 1 and Day 2 makes a person more likely to be scum or less likely to be scum?

In your recent statements, you seem to be assuming that it makes someone more likely to be scum. I'd ask that you consider that question carefully before you assume it.

I think it is a hard question to answer given what we know. Right now, we don't know if there was a player on the scum team who was a leading wagon. We don't know the alignment of most of the people on any of the wagons. We don't have a very full picture of potential scum motivations for making certain votes.

Scum have reason to join wagons to lynch Townies. But Scum also have reason to avoid those wagons, especially the wagons that actually flip.

So no, your paraphrase of my suggestion is not correct. I am not saying that we should ignore vote analysis. But I don't think it is a good idea to focus primarily on a small list of people who ended up on the town lynch on Days 1 and 2. Given what we know right now, I think it would be a mild surprise if any scum member allowed him or herself to wind up on both of those lynches in the end.

[Ezio]

Hey balki. Do you think it's suspicious for people to defend other people without good reasons for townreading that person?

[Balki Bartokomous]

Maybe "mild surprise" is too strong because there are so many people who ended up on both wagons. But I would be mildly surprised if membership in the "voted for both winning wagons both days" group has a higher incidence of scum membership than the town at large.

One bit of new information that could change that is if we learn that Damo or DemonRHK are scum, as that would give scum much higher motivation to end on one of the winning wagons.

[Balki Bartokomous]

Hey balki. Do you think it's suspicious for people to defend other people without good reasons for townreading that person?

Well I don't know. Maybe. What do you mean exactly? Like defend from an attacking goblin? I think that would be fine.

[yavuzovic]

Well now I am going to do what Durga do not have the balls for. I am going to give a list of my top scum suspects.

My top 4 scum suspect D2:
Durga - scum for refusing to name any possible scum team, only saying (not voting) that Balki looks suspicious. She wrote: "@peter can you address my post to Balki please"!!!
Balki Bartokomous - Coasting. Claim to have posted something in "the post right above yours" but there I only found a lot of rambling about how good Durga is to "sense" scum and NOT any statement by Balki himself. He is voting Durga but retracts that vote immediately when some real heat is applied to Durga. (A scum buddy bussing the other)
damo666 - "I DO NOT HAVE ANY SCUMREADS AT ALL"
ghug - "I was iffy on Durga, but she's been good the last few pages"

So you read the last 2.5 pages, crafted reads based almost exclusively on those pages, and only focusing on how people feel about Durga? That's some solid town play right there /s

Durga is scum => so is bo_
Damo is scum => so is bo_
Bo is behind every door, my assumed scumteam is: Bo, Durga, Damo.... two more? Any volunteer?

[Durga]

Hey balki. Do you think it's suspicious for people to defend other people without good reasons for townreading that person?

Well I don't know. Maybe. What do you mean exactly? Like defend from an attacking goblin? I think that would be fine.

I love you. Seriously.

[yavuzovic]

damo is a horrible wagon
peter is a bad wagon
Yavu is a good choice but both people voting him could be scum
RHK I don't know but I trust damo
##VOTE Ike without a lot of conviction

Here you are! My volunteer! You must be the fourth!
The point I didn't get about this post is why he pointed peter as a bad wagon if he is mafia. Clearing himself? Who knows. Also he changes his vote later because "lke wagon won't go", does it mean he believed both lynch candidates (damo & peter) were town?

[yavuzovic]

Someone vote for Peter

I didn't like this post in the chaos near to EoD

[yavuzovic]

So voters that voted for thd and also Peter: ghug, DrCJG, damo666, DemonRHK, Balki, Flash.

They aren't all scum, but I guarantee you there are multiple scum in that grouping. I am going to do something a bit more in-depth, but that range of players is important to keep in mind. They have been instrumental two days running in killing town.

Xorxes withdraw your +1 from this post, I believe it was an accident.

[yavuzovic]

Though ND deserves it very well. I agree with ND at all the points.

[yavuzovic]

I voted for peterlund. I've made it clear why I did so. I said at the time that taking his flimsy Durga read and then extending it to anyone who disagreed with him was beyond questionable. I was wrong, and you can make of that what you will, but that doesn't give you license to refuse to answer my questions.

##VOTE Peter

Let's at least make this interesting, guys.

^ of course of course, of course you have done so

[Vecna]

The scumteam has some people that push it in the direction of looking for play patterns. Tom Bombadil was less outspoken than normally, while not making excuses for it. Almost like not trying to attract attention. Scum thought he was the type of player that would buckle under the weight of an important PR role and hide from view, to not be a serious threat to the scumteam with accurate reads.

This is well put. Who are people you think would make and then push that call on their teammates, Vecna? My brain is screaming Balki.

I doubt Balki even knows this sort of thing, because I doubt he has played with Tom B often. Id expect it to come from people like Squigs, Durga, DCG, Ghug, ND (not stating im scumreading them in this post).

[Vecna]

It can definitely also come from town, since a bunch of his reasons for townreading Damo were ok - but it still has a whiff of scum trying to save the driver - the push is really strong, and the quotes that he pulls from damo couldve just as well applied to a ton of the other wagons. Besides that, he did not really pull the 2 most towny quotes from Damo, which is weird. The two that swayed my mind in an instant.

@Vecna, you should really post these two Damo quotes that "swayed your mind in an instant." He is the leading wagon by a good margin. Why wouldn't you post those quotes and "sway everyone else's mind in an instant."

Also, you really think it's "weird" that I thought a player was town based on different reasons than you thinking they were town? Why is that weird? You think that you and I should form the same conclusions for the exact same reasons?

I'm quite confused by what you;re trying to say here. Please explain.

I was scumreading him, right untill the moment he did one post. Where he literally went "Guys, youre making a mistake by voting me". For some reason my emotive feeling felt it was PR desperation. I dont even remember what the second post was, and I cba digging it up atm.

So basically you were townreading him for stuff I felt was scum-indicative, or at least not in line with how im used to seeing Damo play.

[Vecna]

My experience playing with Durga several games ago (she was always town) was that she had an uncanny ability to detect scum.

In this game, where is she? What are her opinions?

I've only really been able to gather that she thinks I am scum. Which is not correct, but you all don't know that yet. And she also thinks ND is town and Damo is scum. She hasn't really presented much in the way of rationale for her Damo votes (yesterday and today). She said something to the effect of "he was being defensive," but that is not alignment indicative, and I don't think Durga thinks it is either.

And regarding ND, she seems to be oversimplifying his alignment to such an alarming degree. Basically, if ND says anything coherent, he is town. It cannot be that easy. I have played with ND as both alignments, and that's not my experience. I'm having a hard time believing that the arguments Durga is presenting are from town Durga.

Nobody else seems to have much suspicion of Durga, so I may be off course here. Would somebody please explain where I have gone wrong and steer me back to the road of truth?

You have a point, although it is also true what Durga stated earlier. These on point reads usually take a bit to devellop. But ill agree with you that she deserves some suspicion.

[Vecna]

How many more times do have have to say this.

I DO NOT HAVE ANY SCUMREADS AT ALL.

What is so strange about that?

I have some solid townreads and the scumteam could be any 5 of the remainder (barring some pairs I find unlikely).

The scumteam I named were just the least towny imo. It could have been any 5 of 9 really.

I am resigned to getting lynched. It will be a second mislynch but it could be worse for town.

It will be a shame because I am better when there is more to analyse but I won't be there to help. Up to you.

You not having any scumreads at all tells me that you are not scumhunting at all. Probably scum up to your ears! ##vote damo

At least im understanding why the Peterwagon became a thing