Mafia XL - A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Forum

[ND]

The data is the most important thing to look at now. I would encourage everyone to look at the thd and peter voters. Neither wagon was really justified. There is overlap. That's where I am going to be focusing on for my next analysis post.

[Balki Bartokomous]

The data is the most important thing to look at now. I would encourage everyone to look at the thd and peter voters. Neither wagon was really justified. There is overlap. That's where I am going to be focusing on for my next analysis post.

This post screams scum to me. I cannot figure out why. But it screams scum.

[Balki Bartokomous]

It actually sent a chill down my spine.

"The data is the most important thing to look at now"

Why does that give me the heebiejeebies?

[ND]

I guess you don't like the fact that you are in the data Balki as you were someone who railroaded two town players.

[ND]

It actually sent a chill down my spine.

-snip-

Also, that is so dramatic lol. You are hamming it up.

[Balki Bartokomous]

That might be part of it, frankly. Perhaps being a "false positive" within the "data" that you suggest as "the most important thing to look at" makes me feel like your suggestion is scum-motivated. But, I concede, it could just as easily be misguided town.

Perhaps it makes me cringe because you have referred to this focus a couple of times now, without actually presenting any conclusions about the "data."

I don't know. But it strikes me as being a bit "showy."

Let me ask you this: do you think that early town mislynches are more often driven by town or scum? I guess your suggestion implies an answer to that question, but I think it's worth having you take a step back and consider that. I don't actually know the answer. But I'm curious to hear your answer.

[ND]

When does it go from being a 'early' mislynch to a pattern, a problem, a series of mistakes? Or a series of manipulated wagons? I mean, sure, D1 could be just a fluke. I am willing to concede that. Maybe I was wrong EON post #1. I don't think it was a fluke. I think it was inorganic, but sure I may be wrong. I think it's highly more likely that I am right than I am wrong though.

Surely, by the time we are at D2 we can't really label a mislynch as an 'early' mislynch can we? Like we are on the cusp of mid-game now. We can't ignore two day's of vote patterns. That's real data and we have two very real mislynches where a set of players just so happen to be involved in both. If you don't want people to look at vote patterns and data how do you intend to solve this? Just ignore it. Like, I don't get your point. Doesn't seem genuine to me.

All I have to look at is the voting patterns and data Balki. That's hard fact. Obviously, you can build a circumstantial case on a player's statements, but it's just that circumstantial. You are inferring intent and meaning based on what someone says or based on what someone does. I expect that mid-D1, but going into D3? There's two days of vote patterns there. A vote is a data point and when you have two days of voting data coupled with circumstantial statements you can start to create a picture of the game. I expect total utilization of everything going into D3 not just circumstantial cases alone. That's cheap.

The only reason I can think that you want to dismiss the vote pattern data is because you don't like what's there. It makes you look bad. If you are town you should be explaining your own fallacies in those votes not dumping on the facts.

[ND]

"Perhaps it makes me cringe because you have referred to this focus a couple of times now, without actually presenting any conclusions about the "data."
-Balki

Don't worry I am going to be posting something with my own conclusions, but my conclusions are just mine. I don't want to be the only one nor should I be. My viewpoint is simply one viewpoint. I encourage everyone to look at everything to make the most informed case they can. That is always better than just one person doing it. I would never try to shutter that. That's not helpful.

[worcej]

@worcej, I forgot to ask, did you hardclaim town this game? I seem to recall you pride yourself of never hardclaiming falsely, so a hard claim here can help us eliminate one more suspect.

I have yet to claim anything other than town.

[xorxes]

@worcej, I forgot to ask, did you hardclaim town this game? I seem to recall you pride yourself of never hardclaiming falsely, so a hard claim here can help us eliminate one more suspect.

I have yet to claim anything other than town.

Is "claim" equivalent to "hardclaim" here?

[worcej]

@worcej, I forgot to ask, did you hardclaim town this game? I seem to recall you pride yourself of never hardclaiming falsely, so a hard claim here can help us eliminate one more suspect.

I have yet to claim anything other than town.

Is "claim" equivalent to "hardclaim" here?

Sure, I hardclaim town. Happy?

[flash2015]

Why'd you vote for Peter and not damo?

I could ask you the same question. The vote was tied. A decision had to be made. I thought Peter was likely to be scum than Damo. In hindsight, I guess he was showing he just wasn't that into this game.

So why did you vote for Peter?

I should hope that voting for the person one scumreads more is a given. My question is why.

I've been pretty clear about my thinking. If you want to know my reasoning, you could try participating in the game.

Oh, please. Glass houses and stones and all that.

I went back and read your comments looking for this wonderful detailed post or posts detailing why you voted for Peter. Double-checked twice. Couldn't find it. If you are town, at least from what I can see, your Peter vote was about as much a guess as mine was.

[ghug]

Hold up, worcej is in Washington? Is that the cool Washington or the city?

Durga asked why I voted Peter:
It was to make it interesting. I didn't have any strong scumreads other than flash, who wasn't happening, and I wanted an informative EoD. My choices were Ike, who I townread, Peter, and RHK. Peter was the new cool wagon with momentum, and he was being dumb and tunnely over something flimsy, which I've seen him do as town, but still isn't a particularly good look.

I kinda want to lynch RHK now to see if there's anything useful to be gleaned from our first two days (damo seems inevitable at this point, which is annoying). Nobody caring about Flash coming in and doing absolutely nothing after being so ready to lynch Jamie is also annoying.

I'm starting to scumread bo as well.

Strong town vibes from damo, Balki, xorxes, Durga, ND, Vecna.
Leaning town on Ike, Squiggles. I feel like I had a reason to townread bozo at some point, but I don't remember what it was (or really anything he's done recently), so I guess throw him somewhere between there and null.

[ghug]

I could ask you the same question. The vote was tied. A decision had to be made. I thought Peter was likely to be scum than Damo. In hindsight, I guess he was showing he just wasn't that into this game.

So why did you vote for Peter?

I should hope that voting for the person one scumreads more is a given. My question is why.

I've been pretty clear about my thinking. If you want to know my reasoning, you could try participating in the game.

Oh, please. Glass houses and stones and all that.

I went back and read your comments looking for this wonderful detailed post or posts detailing why you voted for Peter. Double-checked twice. Couldn't find it. If you are town, at least from what I can see, your Peter vote was about as much a guess as mine was.

See, this is BS. I said I disliked his shitty reads post, and I said I wanted to make things interesting.

You just appeared to cast a vote after spending another day hiding.

[flash2015]

I should hope that voting for the person one scumreads more is a given. My question is why.

I've been pretty clear about my thinking. If you want to know my reasoning, you could try participating in the game.

Oh, please. Glass houses and stones and all that.

I went back and read your comments looking for this wonderful detailed post or posts detailing why you voted for Peter. Double-checked twice. Couldn't find it. If you are town, at least from what I can see, your Peter vote was about as much a guess as mine was.

See, this is BS. I said I disliked his shitty reads post, and I said I wanted to make things interesting.

You just appeared to cast a vote after spending another day hiding.

Why was it shitty? I didn't count that as a detailed analysis. Sounds like you didn't even believe your own vote...and you question me?

[ghug]

Oh, please. Glass houses and stones and all that.

I went back and read your comments looking for this wonderful detailed post or posts detailing why you voted for Peter. Double-checked twice. Couldn't find it. If you are town, at least from what I can see, your Peter vote was about as much a guess as mine was.

See, this is BS. I said I disliked his shitty reads post, and I said I wanted to make things interesting.

You just appeared to cast a vote after spending another day hiding.

Why was it shitty? I didn't count that as a detailed analysis. Sounds like you didn't even believe your own vote...and you question me?

Going overboard on rhetoric is even less compelling when you have literally zero to back it up.

I voted for peterlund. I've made it clear why I did so. I said at the time that taking his flimsy Durga read and then extending it to anyone who disagreed with him was beyond questionable. I was wrong, and you can make of that what you will, but that doesn't give you license to refuse to answer my questions.

You subbed in for a scummy player. You were noticed reading the thread before doing so. You came in and acted like it was page one, and then disappeared when asked for more. You provided nothing new at night. You showed up during the day and voted for the person calling you out, offering no opinion on anyone else, and then you disappeared again. You showed up at the end of the day and cast a decisive vote on a townie with no explanation. When asked for an explanation for that vote, you've refused to give one and instead deflected my questions back at me. Your vapid opinions of my play have no bearing on your ability to explain your own. Get the fuck on it.

[yavuzovic]

Good job!

[yavuzovic]

I will not participate this EoD, Don lynch me while this. You don't even have a reason to vote me.

##GM NOTE: If the Observer targets the Driver, they will receive a report that includes both targets of the Driver's role power (if it was used that night). The report will also include anyone else that the Driver visits, and anyone that visits the Driver.

So when observer targets a driver they can be sure their target was driver since no one else has 2 targets to visit.

From my understanding of this setup, this is very incorrect. The box delivery counts as a visit, as well as the use of some of the box items, so the doctor, cop, and observer could easily visit 2 targets. Also, any scum could visit 2 targets with the NK and box delivery or box item, and the hooker could make 2 visits with the RB and NK. It is theoretically possible for any player to make more than 2 visits if they were to accumulate a number of box items.

I see but it has a very high chance of being scum. I would lynch anyone visited 2 targets at once - unless the box receiver admits he got a box. Visiter can still be scum but I don't know, this also depends on the results of the other visit.

[yavuzovic]

Thanks, by the way. I have 200+ posts to read during my bus travel. It will not be boring and I will see who encouraged you to lynch peter over damo. I really don't understand. What's damo, is scum purposely protect town damo to make us believe he is scum? But definitely, there was intention in not lynching damo.

[ND]

I firmly believe we need to lynch flash or damo tomorrow. Case coming eon.