WebMafia Olympics: Bonus Qualification Round

[Kakarroto]

What do you guys think the most logical bets yesterday and today are? I think the flav DK bet is very logical (so gambler may very well be immune today), do you think they double up on that? if they do, then its an option to go for the no-kill, deny the NK, waste the gambler immunity, then proceed again tomorrow. buys us a day, and yoyo can do something with ham b. but this only works if we think mafia bets like this... its risky for sure. also theres a question i have:

##call gm do gambler bets resolve if they are the DK?
ex. can they limit someone's posts while dead? If they bet on their own demise, does the DK immunity just fizzle? If they get the DK bet wrong, does mafia still lose the NK?

Would it be a good idea to see what everyone would bet as gambler or do you guys think that would be too complicated and inevitably WOFIM to figure out whos lying and whats the optimal path forward (I'm just throwing out random ideas)?

oh right, I overlooked this:

Bet on Identity of DK Target:

Success: Immunity from DK for the following phase. After two successes cannot make this bet anymore.

Failure: Mafia loses the NK for a phase.

NOTE: This bet resolves End of Day. The Immunity from DK is activated for the following phase.

right, I forgot they lose the nk if they're wrong. This didn't happen the first time when we had a tie, so they didn't bet on flav that time.

If mafia don't count in that we force a tie, and bet it all on a vote target with the drug, then we could not only render their drug useless, make their immunity go away, but also rob them of tonight's nk. If all town with the con champ second vote go vote for no-kill, we could actually do this in that case.

Of course, mafia could've predicted we come up with that idea, so they could just bet something else.

Hmm. Glad I'm not the one deciding today.

That’s too risky. If we lose the champion, that’s game over if mafia has steroids.

maybe it's too risky, but what I've learned in my mafia games here, more often than not, the more risky play is usual the correct one.

But that's just autobiographical. As I said, I'll follow whatever you decide.

[Yoyoyozo]

oh right, I overlooked this:



right, I forgot they lose the nk if they're wrong. This didn't happen the first time when we had a tie, so they didn't bet on flav that time.

If mafia don't count in that we force a tie, and bet it all on a vote target with the drug, then we could not only render their drug useless, make their immunity go away, but also rob them of tonight's nk. If all town with the con champ second vote go vote for no-kill, we could actually do this in that case.

Of course, mafia could've predicted we come up with that idea, so they could just bet something else.

Hmm. Glad I'm not the one deciding today.

That’s too risky. If we lose the champion, that’s game over if mafia has steroids.

maybe it's too risky, but what I've learned in my mafia games here, more often than not, the more risky play is usual the correct one.

But that's just autobiographical. As I said, I'll follow whatever you decide.

It’s worth considering, I don’t think it’s worthwhile to assume they’ve made any particular bet (unless for variable scenario reasons) especially at a pivotal point like this.

If they did bet on a DK target, I doubt it was Ham, and that played a little bit of a role when deciding who between Ham and Damo to vote for.

[Yoyoyozo]

##CallGM can the gambler bet on there being no kill, or a tie?

[Kakarroto]

possible bets:

bet on champion identity - 0% all nights

bet on identity of DK target - not possible on N2 - nk happened on N3
- probable on N3, as extra extra vote was on flav (-> 1 successful use left)

bet on player's post count for the day
- if kotp says the truth, happened successfully on N3 (within 15 posts) so kotp had been muted afterwards

bet on player's EoD vote
- no visible sign that ever happened, both correctly or incorrectly, so 0% all nights

=> so, on every night, 2 bets HAVE to be made. Until now, there MUST always have been the bets on 'identy on DK target' (just wrong) or 'players post count for the day', which also was mostly wrong.

There is a chance they deviated for TODAY though, so they might have had a bet on someone voting for a certain person

##askGM is the gambler allowed to place a bet on "no-kill" or "unvote"? Would both count for the same result?

[Yoyoyozo]

oh right, I overlooked this:



right, I forgot they lose the nk if they're wrong. This didn't happen the first time when we had a tie, so they didn't bet on flav that time.

If mafia don't count in that we force a tie, and bet it all on a vote target with the drug, then we could not only render their drug useless, make their immunity go away, but also rob them of tonight's nk. If all town with the con champ second vote go vote for no-kill, we could actually do this in that case.

Of course, mafia could've predicted we come up with that idea, so they could just bet something else.

Hmm. Glad I'm not the one deciding today.

That’s too risky. If we lose the champion, that’s game over if mafia has steroids.

maybe it's too risky, but what I've learned in my mafia games here, more often than not, the more risky play is usual the correct one.

But that's just autobiographical. As I said, I'll follow whatever you decide.

To elaborate, I think there’s a slight but important difference between the following scenarios:
It’s between ham and damo and if gambler made a bet about Ham or damo, they likely bet damo so let’s go for ham to be safe.
And
Gambler has probably made a bet about ham and damo and it’s between ham and damo so let’s go with no kill in order to bet around their possible bet.

One hedges the decision, while the other leans more into Wifom.

[Yoyoyozo]

One takes into the account the passibility of the bet, while the other bets on top of the bet is what I mean

[sweetandcool]

If mafia hasn't bet on the dealer, we should pile on him. If gambler is not immune, it's the perfect chance to get him. We just have to decide for a path, and walk it boldly, together.

What do you guys think the most logical bets yesterday and today are? I think the flav DK bet is very logical (so gambler may very well be immune today), do you think they double up on that? if they do, then its an option to go for the no-kill, deny the NK, waste the gambler immunity, then proceed again tomorrow. buys us a day, and yoyo can do something with ham b. but this only works if we think mafia bets like this... its risky for sure. also theres a question i have:

##call gm do gambler bets resolve if they are the DK?
ex. can they limit someone's posts while dead? If they bet on their own demise, does the DK immunity just fizzle? If they get the DK bet wrong, does mafia still lose the NK?

Would it be a good idea to see what everyone would bet as gambler or do you guys think that would be too complicated and inevitably WOFIM to figure out whos lying and whats the optimal path forward (I'm just throwing out random ideas)?

Gambler dieing would immediately remove all bet effects.

[sweetandcool]

##CallGM can the gambler bet on there being no kill, or a tie?

Yes (tie=no-kill effectively)

[sweetandcool]

possible bets:

bet on champion identity - 0% all nights

bet on identity of DK target - not possible on N2 - nk happened on N3
- probable on N3, as extra extra vote was on flav (-> 1 successful use left)

bet on player's post count for the day
- if kotp says the truth, happened successfully on N3 (within 15 posts) so kotp had been muted afterwards

bet on player's EoD vote
- no visible sign that ever happened, both correctly or incorrectly, so 0% all nights

=> so, on every night, 2 bets HAVE to be made. Until now, there MUST always have been the bets on 'identy on DK target' (just wrong) or 'players post count for the day', which also was mostly wrong.

There is a chance they deviated for TODAY though, so they might have had a bet on someone voting for a certain person

##askGM is the gambler allowed to place a bet on "no-kill" or "unvote"? Would both count for the same result?

Yes and yes.

[Hamilton Brian]

At a winery so short and sweet.

Kak if mafia putting on a great show which is why I believe him town. Yoyo town. I am PR unconfirmed.

Leaves Damo and King. Just need to know where we three as town put the vote.

[Hamilton Brian]

What day did King make the no vote and was there something wonky on that vote result?

[Kakarroto]

ok, one thing I forgot, they might lose their nk, but they still have the guess for champion.

So that way, I guess we can't let them do that with both alive.

So I guess we really need to decide for one target.


Anyway, I think I'm getting close to my post limit, if I was chosen and guessed correctly. If you are sure of what we are going to do, tell me to either change my vote or let it stay on Brian.

I want to try, if I was actually targeted and guessed correctly. If so, we have more information about their bets. Until you are sure and have fully decided, I'm trying not to hit that potential limit and stay more silent. After you think we are locked in, I'm trying to post more and when I suddenly stop, you will know.

My post count yesterday (with the blackout accounted) is 60 posts, so if I hit 45 and don't post more, I'm capped. (Could be that I overshoot it because GM isn't watching or some crossposts/PM's, but that's about the ballpark.)

[Hamilton Brian]

You vote me it’s auto win for mafia.

[Kakarroto]

something to consider:

if the gamblers bet includes the "bet on player's EoD vote", then the steroids is most likely on the dealer, since the gambler risks to lose his vote if he's wrong. I think sweet clarified, that this counts as doubling the vote, hence it would be 0*2 which would still result in zero, so it's better for mafia that the dealer has the steroids then.

of course this is only if they chose to risk that, but from the vote behaviour, who could fit this? Damo is fixed on Brian it looks like. Brian is in self-save mode, but on kotp currently. Kotp sheeps yoyo.

I think kotp would stop sheeping yoyo if he changes to vote kotp. But that's logical for both town and mafia. If Brian is mafia, damo wouldn't mind losing the vote. If Brian is town he would probably not want to lose his vote.

There is no logical sense to target himself with the target vote, because in both cases he would lose his vote. The same for his partner, probably. Well, theoretically, he could use that to fake a "oh no my vote was deducted", but at this point ...

Also there is always the option for damo to switch his vote target. Ugh, no matter how I look at it, there is nothing really conclusive and some guesswork is needed.

To be fair, I'm leaning personally more towards Brian is town and kotp is mafia at the moment. But I just have no good deductive sign that this is the case. And it's only a small feeling, I could very well also see Brian being mafia here.

I wish kotp would do much more today, be much more involved. That would help reading him, and he isn't in danger of being muted today. And the more posts he has today, the less danger is that he gets muted tomorrow (if he lives as town, and if we even come that far)

So I can only trust yoyo's decision at this point.

[kingofthepirates]

What day did King make the no vote and was there something wonky on that vote result?

day 3, on that day flavius recieved an extra vote (which you claim).

[kingofthepirates]

I think kotp would stop sheeping yoyo if he changes to vote kotp.

gojo meme: nah I'd sheep (no really I'd sheep that, it'd be a town loss for sure but I'd sheep it)

There's very little to be done from my POV, kak. we're at lylo and it's unknown where the gambler is, its unknown who and what they bet on, and it's unknown if they have protection. We just have to pick a route and stand by it, together. The fact we haven't ended means there must still be at least 1 out, so we just have to pray we hit the correct path...

[Kakarroto]

people's post count:

damo: D1 37 - D2 58 - D3 44 - D4 28+7+0= 35 - D6 (so far) 8

Brian: D1 75 - D2 63 - D3 45 - D4 39+16+8= 63 - D6 (so far) 45

kotp: D1 13 - D2 33 - D3 23 - D4 8+1+0= 9 - D6 (so far) 17

Bet on Player’s Post Count for the Day:

Success: If exactly correct, can set a post limit of their choice that the targeted player must follow for the following phase. That player will not be aware of the post limit set upon themself (unless that limit is zero in which case the player will be informed EoN that they are muted for the phase). If their guess is within 15 posts, they can limit the player's post count the following day to 15 less than the current day's post count.

NOTE: Once a player hits their post limit, the GM will notify them via PM that they are muted for the rest of the phase. The GM will be as diligent as possible in notifying the player in a timely manner, but it may be possible that they inadvertently exceed their post limit. There will be no penalty for this. If a player gets muted before making a valid vote, they must make a valid vote before end of day. They may not include any text other than the vote.

Failure: Every two failures will reduce the Gambler's post count limit by 10. First, a limit of 80 posts will be established. Then after two more failures the limit will be 70, then after two more it will be 60, and so on.

kotp claims on N5 that he was muted the day before, after 8 posts. His 9th post was a blank vote for flavius
-> if he says the truth, mafia would correctly guessed on N3 the post count. We didn't have a claim of anyone else being muted

=> very likely mafia guessed N1 and N2 incorrectly, setting the maximum post level to 80.

Everyone falls under the "below 80 posts" at every day, currently. Only Brian goes over 60 posts on D4, but that alone is still in reach for the gambler, as it wouldn't hit the limit.

IF ANYONE CAN POST OVER 80 POSTS, THEY CAN EASILY PROVE THEMSELVES NOT BEING THE GAMBLER!

I dare everyone in question to do this.

Please keep in mind the possibility that someone was muted. Still, we can easily remove anyone as gambler, who posts enough today.

[Kakarroto]

NOTE: Once a player hits their post limit, the GM will notify them via PM that they are muted for the rest of the phase. The GM will be as diligent as possible in notifying the player in a timely manner, but it may be possible that they inadvertently exceed their post limit. There will be no penalty for this. If a player gets muted before making a valid vote, they must make a valid vote before end of day. They may not include any text other than the vote.

Failure: Every two failures will reduce the Gambler's post count limit by 10. First, a limit of 80 posts will be established. Then after two more failures the limit will be 70, then after two more it will be 60, and so on.

NOTE: This bet resolves end of day and its effect activates the next day phase.


EVERYONE must post over 80 posts today, if someone does not then we vote for them I say

a confirmed town agrees with me on the 80 posts, you OWE Flav this, if you are town.

Especially you kotp, you can't be muted a second time in a row. You NEED to prove today that you can get over 80 posts.

I don't suggest spam, but it might get hard. Try talking with yoyo if you aren't good at monologing, since he is over his mute number, currently.

If I'm not getting muted, I'll be talking to you too, so post. A lot. A metric ton.

@Brian
@damo

this counts for you two too. Failure to oblige will be a maf tell

[Hamilton Brian]

@kak, I am on holiday. My wife will shut bricks me being on my phone when I should be paying attention to her.


I am torn on which to vote for because either Damo and King could do something wonky with the gambler that screws us over.

[kingofthepirates]

ok sure. I'll go for as close to 80 as I can get with what time I have available.