WebMafia Olympics: Bonus Qualification Round

[Hamilton Brian]

Sorry Chaqa, mate, but I have to keep you in the pool for the time being.

Yes, my reads have been flawed, and everything needs a new light, but there is something we have with the Flavius flip. Here is what I opined about Chaqa-Damo as a pairing based on votes N3.

At first blush, I have to say the D3 of Chaqa and Damo suggests a decent pairing possibility.

As a voting blok, they were both on confirmed D1, uncertain about D2 since Flavius is unclear. Now D3, with both yoyo and I town, does mafia!chaqa get on that King vote to ensure a miskill?

Here I took a look at both Chaqa-WillKak and Chaqa-King. The Flavius and Dip assessments were removed for obvious reasons.

For Chaqa - WillKak we have a repeat of the Chaqa-Dip positioning but somewhat differently. D1 both are on different confirmed town. On D2 Chaqa is on conftown as is WillKak. On D3 a little less clear since Chaqa is on an unclear while WillKak is on me.

Finally the Chaqa-King pairing. King votes Chaqa on D1 which could be a nice easy bus since there's no momentum on Chaqa. Chaqa is on conftown. D2 has chaqa on conftown while King's vote is on a nonclear. D3 King has a vote on no one. I see this pairing as the least likely; mafia do know that they want the miskills and I believe that they will probably let town lead the wagons since they will probably be miskills they don't have to take responsibility for. As mafia, King's vote could have been very important. I think pairing doesn't work. It does cause me to consider King more town than not.

As a hierarchy of most to least mafia pairings, I think I have:

Chaqa-Damo, Chaqa-WillKak, Chaqa-Dip, Chaqa-Flavius, Chaqa-King.

I think what worries me is how quickly I seem to dismiss the possibility of the King as mafia partner theme. Something about my bias clouding my objectivity?

[Hamilton Brian]

Here I looked at Damo's pairs in voting. I did remove Dip and Flavius, but what occured to me when deleting was I gave those pairings low scores. Could those scores be a reflection not of Damo as mafia but instead Flavius and Dip NOT being mafia? As we lose players I expect the scores to start increasing based on the shrinking pool.

Damo-WillKak: both are on conftown Haze D1. Here I think mafia are more interested in separating their votes than being on the same wagon. With two more flips from that wagon it'd start to come together. Mafia would hope to last longer than that, I think, and right now it seems like they might. Damo is on Flavius D2 while WillKak is on conftown Bunny. As the vote progresses from D1 to D3 there starts to be more of a separation. This might warrant a 1.

Damo-King: On D1 these two have different votes; Damo is on a conftown wagon while King drops an early vote on Chaqa. On D2 both are on unclears and not involved in the kill. That makes me think it's a weak pairing unless the momentum for Bunny was a late push. For D3 King has an unvote. I don't see this partnership working.

My hierarchy is:

Damo-WillKak, Damo-Dip, Damo-Flavius, and Damo-King.

[Hamilton Brian]

Finally the WillKak-King potential pairing. Again for D1, King is far away from a viable wagon. WillKak is on conftown Haze. King then finds a way to land on WillKak's wagon; was this a directed bus that they concocted in mafiachat. No Brian, that's stupid. There wasn't a mafiachat prior to D1. Will does show up on the conftown Bunny wagon. Wait, I was looking at D2 there when I wrote that. So the possibility of the bus conversation prior to D2 is there. Don't rule it out. So for D1 there's WillKak on conftown and King on Chaqa; if a team there's some good distance there. D3 King does not vote. WillKak is on town (Brian). That D3 vote from King rattles me a little bit; no, rather a lot. Could be some sort of tactic to get out from under suspicion. Note WillKak does NOT go on King's wagon so potential avoidance of bussing.

I think this pairing has more potential that I originally gave to it.

And then there's this pairing. Again, our pool shrinks, the scores have to increase. I feel like I've looked at King's play and thought, "Tough to be mafia especially with the time distance." I've looked at Kak coming in thinking, "Man, putting in some good work and not coasting," but there's some bias I didn't shake off from my original work.

I need to look at the pairings again, but do it differently in terms of the ISO to make sure I don't miss anything.

If we, indeed, get King to sheep yoyo, then we need yoyo to make the BEST ABSOLUTE DECISION and we need to help with that.

[Hamilton Brian]

Final Day 4 Vote Count

FlaviusAetius (5) damo666, KingofthePirates, Hamilton Brian
damo666 (4) Kakarroto, Yoyoyozo, FlaviusAetius, Chaqa

PLEASE CONTINUE HOLDING

Just so we don't lose this since the bot is a little wonky.

[Hamilton Brian]

Speaking of the bot, it's going to be somewhat tricky to determine the veracity of King's claim to have been muted.

[Hamilton Brian]

Chaqa and Damo

First reply C makes to D is when D suggests Brian is top townread. C agrees, then says concerned due to Brian being deep threat.

Incorrect; first interaction is C voting Flavius, D asking for more info, and C replying discussed earlier and forgot to cast vote.

Third interaction is a continuing conversation about Brian getting D1’d.

Day 3 Chaqa is asked by Damo why he voted the way he did that got Bunny killed. Chaqa claims to have a post coming about it. (did this post ever materialize?)

When Kak asks for thoughts on Damo and Brian, Chaqa replies, “Damo I frankly have had a nullish read on but he's said one or two things lately that have me thinking he should be a wagon after we resolve Flavius.”

Continued questions from Kak about a Brian-Damo team, Chaqa says, “I'm not completely ruling it out, but it is not a team I would consider likely at the moment. You could be right about Damo. I thought Flav's partner was Yoyo but that is apparently wrong, so maybe it could be Flav-Damo?”

Continuing Kak questions: “That's a good point and I'm not in fact sure Damo would do that as scum with Flav. So maybe they are not scum together?”

D4 Chaqa says that the mafia team is just King and Damo.

D4 Damo accuses C of PR hunting and C replies, “claimed PR you doofus.”

Continued accusation of PR hunting met with “how.”

Kak asks if Chaqa exists to which Chaqa replies, to wit, not on a scum team but with Damo.

Votes Flav but also suggests Damo would work.

Posits that the gambler didn’t vote on Damo.

Does vote Damo at the end.

Yoyo says we need to figure out if Chaqa bussed or Brian saved Damo, to which Chaqa replies, “Always bet on Chaq.”

Ends mentioning Damo on suggesting mafia is Damo and King.

6 interactions from Chaqa to Damo.

[Hamilton Brian]

I have an appointment; I'll try to get back to this when I return.

[damo666]

Final Day 4 Vote Count

FlaviusAetius (5) damo666, KingofthePirates, Hamilton Brian
damo666 (4) Kakarroto, Yoyoyozo, FlaviusAetius, Chaqa

PLEASE CONTINUE HOLDING

Just so we don't lose this since the bot is a little wonky.

O dear o dear o dear

[Chaqa]

Speaking of the bot, it's going to be somewhat tricky to determine the veracity of King's claim to have been muted.

Where did KOTP say that?

[dargorygel]

I THINK I have resolved the bot issues. Please let me know on discord or DM if the bot is still acting ill. Thanks.

[Yoyoyozo]

Okay I’ll try to come up with a plan and post it close to EON. Can other people also do this as well, something that takes into account the following things:
-we need to confirm that damo is mafia
-we need to account for possible immunity
-we need to account for gambler DK votes
-we need to account for the possibility that mafia has figured out who the Champion is.

[damo666]

Okay I’ll try to come up with a plan and post it close to EON. Can other people also do this as well, something that takes into account the following things:
-we need to confirm that damo is mafia
-we need to account for possible immunity
-we need to account for gambler DK votes
-we need to account for the possibility that mafia has figured out who the Champion is.

I am not.
Hard.
Hard.
Impossible I think.

[Hamilton Brian]

Damo and Chaqa

D1; first mention of Chaqa happens on page 12. “Chaqa is silly.”

Chaqa “could be anything…not a D1 vote though.” That’s a rough paraphrase.

Asks for more info on Chaqa’s Flavius vote.

Replies to Chaqa during the conversation about Brian being a deep threat, “Same could be said of you or ghug.”

I have scuttled the days but we’re in D2. Suggests that Chaqa/ghug surviving to D2 is suspect.

Chaqa not paired with Bunny

D3: Care to explain the Bunny vote that got him killed. Says, “There must have been scum on bunny.” of which included Flavius, WillKak, Chaqa.

Replies to Chaqa that Will is scum making Dip unlikely to be a partner so it has to be WillKak and Flav.

Not Chaqa related but please, someone read this from Damo and pole it a bit: “If there was scum on Haze D1 there must be scum in {Will, Dip} (assuming yoyo is BB).” That makes WillKak the obvious DK for our next day, if Damo is to be believed.

D3: Chaqa is second on the list in a group of possible scum: Will, Chaqa, Flav

On D3, giving Kak thoughts: “I think scum are two of {Will(you)/Flav/Chaqa} so if you are town (which I doubt) have a good look at Flav and Chaqa.” Editorial: We know Flav is town so in Damo’s logic it is now WillKak-Chaqa.

D3 again: “n the unlikely event Flav flips town we should probably look at Chaqa.”

In reply to me, “Yes, but it means Chaqa is bussing but that's well within his game. However, I think FlavKak more likely.”

Chides Chaqa a bit for “not” reading the roles.

Comes to reject the idea of Chaqa not being scum if the assumption is that Flav is mafia. Editorial: How does that thinking change now that we know Flav was town?

D3: “I think Kak is trying to save Flav.”

D4: convo with Chaqa about the Dip Flip. Both agree they thought Dip was “anything but VT.” Chaqa says team is just Damo and King. Damo says wrong. Damo accuses Chaqa of PR hunting. Explains how to Chaqa.

Encourages Chaqa to join them on Flav.

N4: “I believe Chaqa is town.”

@yoyo, tell me what you might notice with regard to Damo's evolution of thought around Chaqa. Anything jump out to you?

[damo666]

It's Kak and kotp.

I assume yoyo will be the NK so I need both Ham and Chaqa to vote with me 2m.

[Hamilton Brian]

Good morning. Shit, flav flipped town… should’ve voted later for more discussion to occur if possible. Might not have changed my mind though… regardless, we’re pretty stuck now. Defeatist attitude is slightly kicking in.

Final Day 4 Vote Count

FlaviusAetius (5) damo666, KingofthePirates, Hamilton Brian
damo666 (4) Kakarroto, Yoyoyozo, FlaviusAetius, Chaqa

PLEASE CONTINUE HOLDING

+2 on flav…? That confirms confident champ. And drugs. I was muted yesterday (after 8 posts, so I suspect mafia got within 15 of 23) and did not receive a drug PM.

I am not sure how I am feeling about it. We have posts from them at 16:25 and 16:19 then the vote for Flav at 2:36.

It smells a little like BS to me and something that mafia could employ as a tactic; "Makes me seem town, I got muted."

But then they say they are willing to sheep yoyo.

However, they come in and their first point isn't that they were muted. Their first point was the flip AND "should have voted later" to encourage more discussion.

I know I have a funny communication style but I think if I had been muted, that would have been the first thing I would have come out with.

Or something like, "Shit, we lost Flav! AND by the way, I was muted."

[Hamilton Brian]

I tried to reply directly to Chaqa's post but frigged it up. Again. Common theme in my communications to the GT.

[Hamilton Brian]

I fell short on what I wanted to do today. Painting doors, meeting city people so I could meet my obligations as community council president, etc.

I feel like I could get swayed by one good argument or another. So the work isn't done. Still need to process all the interactions of the four people in question.

Done is Chaqa-Damo and Damo-Chaqa.

Still need:
Chaqa-King
King-Chaqa
Chaqa-WillKak
WillKak-Chaqa
Damo-King
King-Damo
Damo-WillKak
WillKak-Damo

[damo666]

I fell short on what I wanted to do today. Painting doors, meeting city people so I could meet my obligations as community council president, etc.

I feel like I could get swayed by one good argument or another. So the work isn't done. Still need to process all the interactions of the four people in question.

Done is Chaqa-Damo and Damo-Chaqa.

Still need:
Chaqa-King
King-Chaqa
Chaqa-WillKak
WillKak-Chaqa
Damo-King
King-Damo
Damo-WillKak
WillKak-Damo

King-WillKak ?
WillKak-King ?

[Hamilton Brian]

Chaqa and King

Remember to ISO King and KotP

D2: First response from Chaqa to a King question; King wants some info, and Chaqa offer some middling response.

D2: King wants to see why Flavius is mafiaread ; Chaqa offers a response of ScumFlav being more organized in their thoughts.

Next reply is Chaqa explaining his play style.

D3: Chaqa responds that the vote at EOD was paranoia.

D4: reply to King that town reads are Kak, Ham, yoyo is PR, and Flav is TBD. At this point that leaves King and Damo as mafia if Chaqa is town. (editorial)

The KotP interactions

D3: Chaqa says he didn’t remember King was in the game

Feels like King and Damo have been given a pass

Response to Kak is that he feel’s KotP’s play this game is “strange.” Editorial…could be somewhat of a distance.

Votes KotP at the end of D3

D4: Chaqa says, so the mafia team is just KotP and Damo.

N5 (I guess that’s where we are now): Chaqa says he’s of the opinion that damo and King are mafia (less likely Brian).

So very few interactions between the two at all. How much coordination could happen? I guess a lot in mafia chat if King follows Chaqa's lead.

[Hamilton Brian]

I fell short on what I wanted to do today. Painting doors, meeting city people so I could meet my obligations as community council president, etc.

I feel like I could get swayed by one good argument or another. So the work isn't done. Still need to process all the interactions of the four people in question.

Done is Chaqa-Damo and Damo-Chaqa.

Still need:
Chaqa-King
King-Chaqa
Chaqa-WillKak
WillKak-Chaqa
Damo-King
King-Damo
Damo-WillKak
WillKak-Damo

King-WillKak ?
WillKak-King ?

Yep, them too. Jesus, it's really not intentional.