WebMafia Olympics: Bonus Qualification Round

[Hamilton Brian]

Damo and Flavius

We’ve already covered the Chaqa Damo connection. Now it is on to the rest of Damo’s possibilities.

First up is Damo and Flavius. D1 had not a lot of interactions but we see Damo going back and forth on the EOD vote between Flavius and Haze, settling on Haze. Could be a subtle save of a partner and if it didn’t happen it’d be an epic bus on D1.

Suggests they wanted to avoid a tie for the movement.

Over D2 some minor back and forths that don’t seem to cover too much weight. Suggested that scum!Flav couldn’t be paired with Bunny which we definitely know is true on Bunny’s account.

Vote’s Flav with under 9 hours to go then does the weird one word posts.

Over D3 we see damo really entertaining and voicing so many possible pairs. There are a lot of mentions of Flav but not much talking to Flav.

On Day 4 Damo conveys that there was no drug dealer vote bump so Champ put a vote on Flavius. Meaning Flavius can not be Champ.

Over this read of Damo and Flavius two things strike me. The two barely interact with one another. Damo also really expresses a desire to get Flav flipped over all four days. So very distant from Damo>Flav. Could be a pair. The potential bussing by Damo makes me think this is an unlikely pair but it isn’t unlikely. 4/10

[Hamilton Brian]

Damo and WillKak

Will is labeled scum with Jamie in Damo’s 3rd game post. Votes Will D2. Will shows up many times in Damo’s mafia group. Will and Flav, Will and Dip. Will is Damo’s scummiest read a quarter into D3.

Just like with Flavius, not a lot of talking to. A lot of talking about.

(Why would Damo avoid chatting with either of them; he doesn’t completely avoid them but they’re not asking him questions, and I don’t think I saw him asking questions of them).

Enter Kak. Bit of a new game. Kak enters D3. Looks forward to Kak’s state of the game, calls the catch up impressive. The scum!Will read becomes a hard town read of Kak with 6 hours to go.

More communicative with Kak. I feel less strongly about this pair than the Damo Flavius one. Say between 3/10.

[Hamilton Brian]

Flavius and KotP

Day 1 challenges a vote for King because King was “trying to increase engagement.” King suggest Flav is lurking to which Flav responds to the contrary. Shares their reads when King asks for them.


Declares that they feel like King has said some good stuff on D2. D2 declares them “super town.” When questioned by Kak suggests that King hasn’t said anything suspicious.

D3, King says “I really want to hear Flav’s thoughts…” This really jumps out to me. Later on in D3 Flav calls King out for coasting. That’s interesting since Flav has been adamant that King is their solid townread. It seems to be a significant contradiction.

What stands out to me in the interactions is how much they interact with one another AND how strongly Flav townreads King, and even chastises other players for putting votes on King.

I am revising my original read on this pair. Where I thought it was unlikely before I now think it is highly likely. When including my vote analysis with their interactions I think these two are one of the more likely pairs. I’ll say 7/10.

[Hamilton Brian]

Flavius and WillKak

D1: this might be the first game Flav doesn’t suspect WillKak for posting first. Spends time challenging Will on their reads. Then defends Will after the dustup with Jamie. Says the wagon on Will doesn’t make sense. At 13:31 calls Brian, Haze, and Will townreads, which seems contradictory to the information gleaned on the Flavius King pair where Flavius was adamant King was town.

D2: Winds up still saying unsure about a Will wagon but votes for them later on.

D3: suggests a revised view of Will; asks demo for their case on Will. Then says uncertain about them but not really seeing anything striking to vote for them.

Enter Kak. Tells Kak that they assumed Will from the start. Tells Kak that the case on damo doesn’t seem like a real one (a shade cast on Kak?). Engages with Kak quite a bit, but that probably speaks to the way Kak plays the game more than anything else.

This pairing ranks lower than the Flavius King pairing.

D1 both on different town wagons to end the day. D2 together on Bunny to end the day with WillKak being the counter.On D3 both on Brian.

Hmm, maybe slightly lower than Flavius King. 5/10.

[Hamilton Brian]

KotP and WillKak

D1: asks Will how to speed up the game.
N1: posits a scum pair of Will and Dip

This really seems the least likely of all combos. a 1/10 just to register.

[Hamilton Brian]

I did a quick check myself, how I look at the possible mafteams. Participants Chaqa, Brian, Flav, damo and kotp. Excluded yoyo (buff boy) and myself.

chaqa-Brian - chaqa D2 townreads Brian, concurs with damo there; doesn't change his view about Brian, looks pretty sold on that townread (joining the "Ham is town"-club like two dead townies) - could be a pair, but more unlikely
chaqa-flav - at the same time when townreading Brian, Chaqa strongly susses flav. Negotiates with others D2, voting Flav for long but switching to Bunny last second with "no ties". Votes Flav D3 again, nearly causes an early endvote (and long night!) and only changes last second to kotp due to Kak's pivot suggestion to kotp, which results in the tie. Chooses to vote Flav over damo D4. - Only possible with extremely high bussing. Which is in Chaqa's ballpark, but this looks very extreme.
chaqa-damo - a few reactions over the days, but nothing major. No friction, nothing special. - a maf pair would strive to look like that. Having no big connections, existing together, not bothering another. Should be looked after in more detail. Possible
chaqa-kotp NOPE

Brian-flav - Brian questions Flav early due to entry, but likes it at the end. Talk to each other, but pretty inconsequential stuff, D1 and D2. Brian says this about Flav "If this is Flavius' scum game then it's a really good show so far."; then agrees with Flav on some points, says he isn't sure if that's points for town Flav. Brian includes Flav in his maf pool in EoN2 reads. Votes then yoyo as uncc'ed PR over Flav. Joins in the endvote incident, first voting, then endvoting after another flav+endvote comes in. Goes away fast as soon as the wagon seems to die, then votes flav when his own wagon forms. EoD3, he changes to kotp "for shits" and ends there, has another vote for Flav after day ends. Brian has a lot of teampair analysis in thread, Flav seems missing (where is the yapper?). Brian doesn't include Flav in the brainbombstyle maf chat sketch. Votes damo, chaqa and yoyo D4, then stays on unvote. - This team has a lot more chance being paired than I originally thought/remembered. Pretty plausible maf-team
Brian-damo NOPE
Brian-kotp - not many interactions, but kotp would've chosen Brian over Flav to safe himself. Unlikely

Flav-damo - needs heavy bussing involved over multiple days. very unlikely
Flav-kotp - kotp votes Flav over stretches of the game, though unconsequentionally. Soft bussing? Would've not chosen Flav but Brian to save his life. Possible

============

NOPE level: chaqa-kotp, Brian-damo

very unlikely level: Flav-damo

unlikely: Brian-kotp, chaqa-Brian

possible: chaqa-damo, Flav-kotp

pretty plausible: Brian-flav

special case: only possible with extreme bussing: chaqa-flav



Looking at that, Flav appears very often in the high rated teams here. Maybe I'm just wrong with my townlean read on him. Have I wasted a whole day for town avoiding the hammer?

This is one of these posts that on the onset looks GREAT but actually needs a complete reread.

[Hamilton Brian]

My gut, along with my work, says we need to look at Flavius-King or Damo-Chaqa.

[Chaqa]

Our power is out and my phone is close to dead so I’ll probably be MIA for a bit. Supposed to have power back in the AM

[Chaqa]

Oh it came back on quicker than expected!

[damo666]

Right now Im trying to think of other ways D3 might have shook out besides someone having a double vote

I’m p sure it’s literally just confident champ and steroids.

I’m not sure if this has been mentioned since you’ve made this post, but the gambler could have also bet on a players EOD Vote and lost.

This would have shown as a vote lost rather than an extra vote wouldn't it?

I think this can be eliminated.

[dargorygel]

MOVE DEADLINE 12 H EARLIER

[damo666]

@sweet and or @darg you need to amend the bot to recognise D4 extended by 24h

[damo666]

MOVE DEADLINE 12 H EARLIER

Xpost but 24hours no?

[damo666]

MOVE DEADLINE 12 H EARLIER

Xpost but 24hours no?

Else it's EOD in 4 minutes lol

[dargorygel]

MOVE DEADLINE 12 H EARLIER

[damo666]

I'm reasonably confident it's Flav and kotp and as Flav cannot be champ I believe he is the better bet.

FlavKak and FlavHam are much less likely.

I believe Chaqa is town.

There is a small chance Flav is town with me in which case our route to victory is very narrow. I would rank the pairs Kak/kotp Ham/kotp Ham/Kak.

I will not be moving my vote (barring something dramatic).

[damo666]

@ darg if the bot won't allow you to go back because it's processed Day to Night why not go forward 48 hours leaving 11 hours odd of Day 5.

[dargorygel]

@ darg if the bot won't allow you to go back because it's processed Day to Night why not go forward 48 hours leaving 11 hours odd of Day 5.

We might. That's sweets call.

[damo666]

@ darg if the bot won't allow you to go back because it's processed Day to Night why not go forward 48 hours leaving 11 hours odd of Day 5.

We might. That's sweets call.

Cool

[sweetandcool]

@ darg if the bot won't allow you to go back because it's processed Day to Night why not go forward 48 hours leaving 11 hours odd of Day 5.

We might. That's sweets call.

That's what I intended, if there was no other way.