WebMafia Olympics: Bonus Qualification Round

[Kakarroto]

oh, ok, Chaqa invaded my brain and voted while I was typing. Thanks for voting.

Now @kotp look at the situation, think, give your thoughts and your vote.

[Hamilton Brian]

No? I'm following the game and I have opinions and reads. I just don't have the time to post as consistently throughout the day as I did. So for example I'm around now for like 1-3 hours (until the baby needs to eat again) but then I'll be gone for a bit

I see.

What are your thoughts on damo and Brian? Do you think Flav HAS to be mafia?

Hamilton is my strongest townread.

Damo I frankly have had a nullish read on but he's said one or two things lately that have me thinking he should be a wagon after we resolve Flavius.

Re: Flav... I don't think he HAS to be mafia. I think he is likely to be mafia and I think he needs to be flipped before LYLO anyway so we may as well find out now.

Here chaqa advocates a flip in the order of Flavius THEN damo.

[Hamilton Brian]

In reading the instances where Chaqa quotes or talks to damo...I don't feel like there's any relationship there.

The vote patterns still rank the relationship high but in-game talk lowers it. I'll rank it as a 5/10 as mid to least likely.

[Hamilton Brian]

Kak, how have you figured out those odds? That's some interesting work. I've read your post three times and I have to go walk the dogs to get the blood back in to my brain.

I will keep doing my work but I'll get back to yours.

[Kakarroto]

Kak, how have you figured out those odds? That's some interesting work. I've read your post three times and I have to go walk the dogs to get the blood back in to my brain.

I will keep doing my work but I'll get back to yours.

Well, they are "Pi mal Daumen"; in case of the 99.99%, since d&w mentioned he didn't get a PM and damo also said that, the chance that town lies about it is just so astronomically low. And thus it leaves only room for mafia, bare a freakishly low chance of connected coincidences (like d&w would have to not only lied about it, but then waited for a whole day and night, AND missed the EoD chance, AND not crumbed it before somewhere).

the roughly 50/50 is just due to role/member in this game. Neither could be buff boy or champion, so that leaves 3 town 2 mafia, 5 overall slots. I've rounded that up for myself to not do the actual math stuff, so feel free to exchange it to a 2/5ths chance being mafia, every time I say roughly 50/50 in there.

and the 75% is just taking the 50/50 and 99.99% and smashing them together and get the average.

Didn't want to calculate the higher chance for flav being town if damo is drugged mafia, because no thank you, but if mafia want you dead, you have reasonably high chances of being town, that should be understood simply enough

[Kakarroto]

oh, and the "Pi mal Daumen" is a phrase here, literally "pi multiplicated with the thumb"

maybe you could translate it with 'rule of thumb', but I think it's used more for stating that it's more estimated than hard math

[Hamilton Brian]

Alright...Chaqa and Flavius. The vaunted Flavius who has successfully avoided the executioner's swing.

Initial connections seem superficial; D2 chaqa suggests that this Flavius game is contrary to their town game and more like their scum game.

Bunny asks if ghug-flav makes sense and chaqa says maybe but would like to get flav first.

I am intrigued with chaqa's reasoning here of scum!Flav is dominating the thread (post count I assume) and that was the reason Jamie was axed.

Chaqa doesn't plant the vote on Flav though; opts for WillKak after informed of yoyo's claim.

But still tries to lead the charge on Flav. (editorial: if this is the pair, it's a great attempt at bussing from chaqa).

Once Kak joins the game Chaqa opens up some more; suggest that Flav-damo might be the pair.

On D3 I suggested I was reconsidering Chaqa and they replied with: "Posit this:
If I were mafia, why vote for Bunny and not Will, when assumedly I was only interested in getting a kill?

The only logical reason would be if Will were my partner.

So the question becomes - do you think JustAKakNamedWill is scum?"

Not sure the connection to the Chaqa-Flav read but I just revisited that quote and thought it interesting.

Begins to feel that maybe Flav is town in light of "damo and KotP being given a pass."

The vote on Flav might be chaqa's boldest statement this game. It's rolled in and out like the tide but it keeps coming back in. If this is scumtheatre, great job, but I don't think it is.

I originally rated the pair 8/13 due to voting. I'm lowering it to 3/10

[Kakarroto]

[...]
Begins to feel that maybe Flav is town in light of "damo and KotP being given a pass."
[...]

sorry for cutting the quote, but the post is right above, and I didn't want to fill the page with quote, and only had a thought on the red marked part:

With how Chaqa last minute practically voted out kotp (he couldn't know that Kak would switch back to Brian, and there was a hidden vote on Flav, but either way, it would've been still be enough for kotp to be voted out last second), I don't believe we have a Chaqa-kotp pairing. Just wanted to put it here, since that part made me remember that thought.

[Kakarroto]

He did however switch from Flav to kotp, so the possibility that Chaqa was bussing Flav here and saw an easy method to save him last second is not absolutely impossible.

[Hamilton Brian]

Oh Chaqa-WillKak. ISO of Just reveals nothing. Amend it to Will. First key interaction was a soft defence of Will from Jamie's armbar against Will for the "reaction test." Negative point for chaqa here. On D2 was "inclined" to follow me on a Will wagon.

I feel like the Will slot is the first slot with which Chaqa did not really interact with. Sure, referred to them in posts, but from my read there was NO communication between them. I think that's interesting but given my own performances, NAI. Note this though.

With Kak, reads Kak as town.

I had this pairing as stronger scum lean than the Flavius Chaqa team, but less than the Damo Chaqa team. Let's say 4/10.

[Hamilton Brian]

[...]
Begins to feel that maybe Flav is town in light of "damo and KotP being given a pass."
[...]

sorry for cutting the quote, but the post is right above, and I didn't want to fill the page with quote, and only had a thought on the red marked part:

With how Chaqa last minute practically voted out kotp (he couldn't know that Kak would switch back to Brian, and there was a hidden vote on Flav, but either way, it would've been still be enough for kotp to be voted out last second), I don't believe we have a Chaqa-kotp pairing. Just wanted to put it here, since that part made me remember that thought.

Nice find; thanks. Will tuck it into my solving pocket.

[Kakarroto]

Sure thing. I also think the likely hood of a Brian-damo team is practically non-existent. Maybe not news to you, but i also wanted to point it out.

[Hamilton Brian]

Yeah, so Chaqa King. Prior to D3, not a lot of connections between them. Then suggests they've been given a pass. Votes King at the last minute. Chaqa was willing to let King die, which would make for a good bus. I am calling this pair 2/10.

[Hamilton Brian]

Sure thing. I also think the likely hood of a Brian-damo team is practically non-existent. Maybe not news to you, but i also wanted to point it out.

well i know I am not mafia, so...

[Hamilton Brian]

The chaqa-damo pair still ranks the highest of the four possibilities.

[Kakarroto]

Also:##unvote

Chaqa is doing better today, I have to give him props for that. He’s not really sheeping anymore, and has his own reads (on flav which I think is lukewarm but it’s still something, and possibly yoyo). I hope this continues. I tentatively rescind my vote, and put him as NULL.

I’m going back to my night post, I think of the pool of 5 (damo, yoyo, bunny, will, dip) there’s definitely at least 1 scum, and a decent chance of both. I want to vote from this pool unless something major comes up and shakes everything up. Going to read through all the above persons D2, and update my own reads.

@kotp, what are your current thoughts about this post, and your pool of 5 (damo, yoyo, bunny, will/Kak, d&w) right now? With bunny and d&w flipping town, yoyo being buff boy, is the pair damo-Kak? Who of them looks more like mafia? Or did you change your mind?

[Chaqa]

Official Vote Count 2.0

Chaqa (3) ghug, kingofthepirates, DiplomacyandWarfare
damo666 (2) JustAGuyNamedWill, Yoyoyozo
ghug (1) BunnyGo
BunnyGo (1) FlaviusAetius
Unvote (1) damo666
JustAGuyNamedWill (1) Hamilton Brian

Chaqa still needs to vote. Chaqa is also currently set to die.

26 hours left of phase.

We're all set to die, man.

So this is a weird post; I now ask, what's up with the added emphasis. Is Chaqa being existential here?

Yes

[Kakarroto]

Does Chaqa even exist?

[Chaqa]

Does Chaqa even exist?

Apparently not on any scumteams besides with Damo.

[Kakarroto]

I did a quick check myself, how I look at the possible mafteams. Participants Chaqa, Brian, Flav, damo and kotp. Excluded yoyo (buff boy) and myself.

chaqa-Brian - chaqa D2 townreads Brian, concurs with damo there; doesn't change his view about Brian, looks pretty sold on that townread (joining the "Ham is town"-club like two dead townies) - could be a pair, but more unlikely
chaqa-flav - at the same time when townreading Brian, Chaqa strongly susses flav. Negotiates with others D2, voting Flav for long but switching to Bunny last second with "no ties". Votes Flav D3 again, nearly causes an early endvote (and long night!) and only changes last second to kotp due to Kak's pivot suggestion to kotp, which results in the tie. Chooses to vote Flav over damo D4. - Only possible with extremely high bussing. Which is in Chaqa's ballpark, but this looks very extreme.
chaqa-damo - a few reactions over the days, but nothing major. No friction, nothing special. - a maf pair would strive to look like that. Having no big connections, existing together, not bothering another. Should be looked after in more detail. Possible
chaqa-kotp NOPE

Brian-flav - Brian questions Flav early due to entry, but likes it at the end. Talk to each other, but pretty inconsequential stuff, D1 and D2. Brian says this about Flav "If this is Flavius' scum game then it's a really good show so far."; then agrees with Flav on some points, says he isn't sure if that's points for town Flav. Brian includes Flav in his maf pool in EoN2 reads. Votes then yoyo as uncc'ed PR over Flav. Joins in the endvote incident, first voting, then endvoting after another flav+endvote comes in. Goes away fast as soon as the wagon seems to die, then votes flav when his own wagon forms. EoD3, he changes to kotp "for shits" and ends there, has another vote for Flav after day ends. Brian has a lot of teampair analysis in thread, Flav seems missing (where is the yapper?). Brian doesn't include Flav in the brainbombstyle maf chat sketch. Votes damo, chaqa and yoyo D4, then stays on unvote. - This team has a lot more chance being paired than I originally thought/remembered. Pretty plausible maf-team
Brian-damo NOPE
Brian-kotp - not many interactions, but kotp would've chosen Brian over Flav to safe himself. Unlikely

Flav-damo - needs heavy bussing involved over multiple days. very unlikely
Flav-kotp - kotp votes Flav over stretches of the game, though unconsequentionally. Soft bussing? Would've not chosen Flav but Brian to save his life. Possible

============

NOPE level: chaqa-kotp, Brian-damo

very unlikely level: Flav-damo

unlikely: Brian-kotp, chaqa-Brian

possible: chaqa-damo, Flav-kotp

pretty plausible: Brian-flav

special case: only possible with extreme bussing: chaqa-flav



Looking at that, Flav appears very often in the high rated teams here. Maybe I'm just wrong with my townlean read on him. Have I wasted a whole day for town avoiding the hammer?