WebMafia Olympics: Bonus Qualification Round

[Yoyoyozo]

ok, this leads currently nowhere, so I want to throw a few questions into the room:

@Flav and
@kotp : who do you think is the most likely maf partner to damo?

@Brian : do you think your evaluation of damo's likely maf partners still is accurate?

@Chaqa : it looks like you think kotp is damo's most likely maf partner, right?

@yoyo : what are your thoughts on damo's most likely maf partner currently?

HB is either his mafia partner, or town MVP. The two other likely suspects in my mind are still Chaqa and KOTP.

[Hamilton Brian]

Can we go back to yoyo and this claim?

So, there has been no counterclaim so yoyo's claim stands.

However, just imagine that the real BB is just holding tight, ready to spring in to action. What would they have been waiting for?

Yoyo, I don't think it's a bad thing, and it might even help us, if you revealed your night visits. Is there a downside to it?

yoyo is locktown

Are they though? Why so cagey with what could be good info?

[Hamilton Brian]

@Brian : do you think your evaluation of damo's likely maf partners still is accurate?

I will say no, my evaluation is not still accurate. I need to redo what I did on N3 today on D4 to recognize any shifts.

[Chaqa]

ok, this leads currently nowhere, so I want to throw a few questions into the room:

@Flav and
@kotp : who do you think is the most likely maf partner to damo?

@Brian : do you think your evaluation of damo's likely maf partners still is accurate?

@Chaqa : it looks like you think kotp is damo's most likely maf partner, right?

@yoyo : what are your thoughts on damo's most likely maf partner currently?

I don’t really do partner analysis until I have a flipped mafia. I don’t like analyzing double hypotheticals

[damo666]

ok, this leads currently nowhere, so I want to throw a few questions into the room:

@Flav and
@kotp : who do you think is the most likely maf partner to damo?

@Brian : do you think your evaluation of damo's likely maf partners still is accurate?

@Chaqa : it looks like you think kotp is damo's most likely maf partner, right?

@yoyo : what are your thoughts on damo's most likely maf partner currently?

I don’t really do partner analysis until I have a flipped mafia. I don’t like analyzing double hypotheticals

Well join me on Flav then

[Hamilton Brian]

I know this is going to be somewhat heretical, maybe even antitown, but I don't know what problem lies in Yoyo revealing who he visited over the three nights. If you are who you say you are then you've somehow managed to avoid 2 possible nightkills.

If I am off base here, someone tell me that it's a bad idea and why it's a bad idea that yoyo reveals.

Until then ##Vote Yoyo

[damo666]

I know this is going to be somewhat heretical, maybe even antitown, but I don't know what problem lies in Yoyo revealing who he visited over the three nights. If you are who you say you are then you've somehow managed to avoid 2 possible nightkills.

If I am off base here, someone tell me that it's a bad idea and why it's a bad idea that yoyo reveals.

Until then ##Vote Yoyo

He's already said he visited Will N1 and me N3.

Now if he had visied champion N2 why would he bother risking a visit N3? He therefore cannot disclose who he visited N2 because that would be tantamount to declaring them non-Champion and narrowing the champ pool for scum.

Now I suggest you remove your vote from an uncc'd PR.

I further suggest you move it to Flav.

Please stop helping scum.

[damo666]

I know this is going to be somewhat heretical, maybe even antitown, but I don't know what problem lies in Yoyo revealing who he visited over the three nights. If you are who you say you are then you've somehow managed to avoid 2 possible nightkills.

If I am off base here, someone tell me that it's a bad idea and why it's a bad idea that yoyo reveals.

Until then ##Vote Yoyo

He's already said he visited Will N1 and me N3.

Now if he had visied champion N2 why would he bother risking a visit N3? He therefore cannot disclose who he visited N2 because that would be tantamount to declaring them non-Champion and narrowing the champ pool for scum.

Now I suggest you remove your vote from an uncc'd PR.

I further suggest you move it to Flav.

Please stop helping scum.

*visited

[Hamilton Brian]

Sorry; I totally missed where he said he visited you D3.

[Hamilton Brian]

##Unvote

[sweetandcool]

Official Vote Count 4.0

damo666 (2) Kakarroto, Yoyoyozo
FlaviusAetius (1) damo666
Hamilton Brian (1) FlaviusAetius
Unvote (1) Hamilton Brian

damo is currently set to be ousted.

22 hours left until end of phase.

Chaqa and Pirate have not met participation requirements.

[Hamilton Brian]

Jesus, we're really going to do it this way, will we.

Sometimes it takes a Brian to pull up its whatchamacallit and try to rally the troops!

How do I insert a gif?

https://media1.tenor.com/images/a8c5f4b93444d28c9ea86dd51afc5ef8/tenor.gif?itemid=15257083

[Hamilton Brian]

Call me paranoid, but I think damo using the “hard claim” term in conjunction with the “@yoyo” was an attempt to let his mafia partner know I visited him. I in fact did visit damo last night. I think Ham was trying to orchestrate that during N3.

Huh? I was trying to solve. It's rudimentary and ugly work, but it's more than what others are doing.

[Hamilton Brian]

So where is everyone? Kak should have solved all this by now!!!

I'll go back through my pairs but this time I want to look at interactions WITH vca to see if there's any dots to connect.

So my starting point is here again but minus the (scores) I offered. They're dumb and entirely subjective.

Chaqa-Damo
Chaqa-Flavius
Chaqa-WillKak
Chaqa-King

Damo-Flavius
Damo-WillKak
Damo-King

Flavius: King
Flavius: WillKak

WillKak-King

[Chaqa]

Some will say more pairs include me. How I will say more than half do not[/] and Monty Hall therefore dictated we don’t vote me

[Chaqa]

I’m kinda back to “flav might be scum” camp.

I don’t think we can risk not flipping him before final 3

##Vote Flav

[Hamilton Brian]

Official Vote Count 2.0

Chaqa (3) ghug, kingofthepirates, DiplomacyandWarfare
damo666 (2) JustAGuyNamedWill, Yoyoyozo
ghug (1) BunnyGo
BunnyGo (1) FlaviusAetius
Unvote (1) damo666
JustAGuyNamedWill (1) Hamilton Brian

Chaqa still needs to vote. Chaqa is also currently set to die.

26 hours left of phase.

We're all set to die, man.

So this is a weird post; I now ask, what's up with the added emphasis. Is Chaqa being existential here?

[Hamilton Brian]

I was gonna type up some long thing but basically at EOD I got spooked that the scum team was Dip and Bunny. I also was worried we were about to tie. As it turned out, I could have voted Will, but I was panicking a bit at the DIp/Bunny scumteam I imagined.

This is chaqa retreating from "I have a story about why Bunny died" to the "I got scared." Believable? Then discloses the imagined scumteam of Bunny and Dip which we now know is very not the case.

[Kakarroto]

no vote from chaqa and kotp until now. Flav feels kinda uninvolved, this day and last day, though at least he voted. Brian seems directionless, but he is dedicated and trying, so that is great. And while damo is totally wrong with the confident champion angle, he is following an inherit logic and is pretty consistent. He made a stance and holds it. Maybe it actually happened that mafia drugged d&w, and he absolutely failed to say it, or maybe he had some plan for a reaction test and reveal it this day, never expecting to die at night, and damo is actually town.

I really dislike how chaqa and kotp haven't voted yet. Not even unvoted like Brian. With the extra vote on Flav, and damo the only survivor who was on that wagon yesterday, if we look at it from a pure objective angle, those are the single two people in here who have a decreased chance of being town/champion. It is wild, that none other than yoyo, damo and me is voting in that range.

There are two objective options:

a) Confident Champion voted secretly with his second vote Flav. Damo states that he believes that is the case, hence why he is voting Flav; he could not be champion, and is not buff boy who is yoyo. This doesn't make Flav mafia, but decreases his mathematical chances of being town.

b) Steroids were used to increase the vote count, and either d&w or damo used (or were forced to use) it onto Flav. Since neither claimed during the day they received such a package, it is extremely likely the user is mafia, as town would've claimed receiving such a package.

I think option b has to be it, as the teamplayer champion, not the confident champion is in play, thus fully negating option a.

Furthermore, damo has hardclaimed VT, and yoyo scanned him, so he cannot be champion. Mafia would surely not claim being mafia, so either he's lying or just town in a very unlucky situation.

Therefore, the objective logical vote for every town today is one of the two, or at least trying to find out which of the scenarios really happened.

I can understand Flav's vote, in case he absolutely townreads damo and thinks he was just unlucky and instead thinks Brian has good chances of being mafia. I do NOT however understand his voting, if he thinks damo has a reasonable chance of being town. I need Flav to answer his explicit thoughts for damo here.

Both kotp and Chaqa need to look at this situation, and share their thoughts about it, then vote for either of them, or present a very reasonable alternative which they vote. AND AS FAST AS POSSIBLE, DON'T WAIT FOR THE FRICKING LAST MINUTE, OR UNVOTE/NO-KILL!!! If we get no save tonight, then today is our very last misvote left, if we don't get mafia. We need to make it count and vote in a way to cut away any options that have a high chance of being mafia.

Speaking of chances, as no confident champ is in play, damo has a mathematically 99.99% chance of being mafia here, as it is very unlikely, still, with the reasons I mentioned, that d&w would not inform us, at least in an EoN, but even more likelier right on the day it happened, that he got drugged.

If you believe that damo was on the same wagon as a confident champ secret vote, then he has about roughly a 50/50 chance being mafia.

If you not sure which of those options happened, he should roughly have about a 75% chance of being mafia.

Flav would have an increased chance of being town, if damo was steroided mafia. Normal chance of being mafia or town if d&w failed to inform us and damo is town, and about a 50/50 chance of being mafia if confident champ voted secretly.

So in every comparison, Flav has the same or higher chance mathematically chance of being town, compared to damo. Due to that, I will let my vote stay on damo, even when I have slight doubts he might just be unlucky town.

But for you, look at that, use your brain and then decide for yourself. We need your input about that, especially kotp and Chaqa. Flav and Brian, you two think about that two and inform us of your thoughts. But if we don't find a better approach, and I doubt that we will, you will have to decide between those two to vote out today. They both have the lowest mathematically chance of being town in the group of alive players, since neither can be champion.

[Hamilton Brian]

I was gonna type up some long thing but basically at EOD I got spooked that the scum team was Dip and Bunny. I also was worried we were about to tie. As it turned out, I could have voted Will, but I was panicking a bit at the DIp/Bunny scumteam I imagined.

? I dont understand this , why are you randomly bringing up a Dip & Bunny wagon, you and Dip and damo all voted basically at the same time so surely not that

There were some posts, mostly by Dip near EOD, that made me think he was coordinating to save Bunny. I got super paranoid and panicked. After last game I was kind of in a "oh crap I'm bad at mafia right now, my reads are probably all wrong" mindset.

Here chaqa shades Dip and then confesses a lack of confidence in how they play the game. Is this chaqa trying to get us on their side with a bit of the pity-ploy? "If I can't buddy, then by god you're going to be pulled in by my pain."