WebMafia Olympics: Bonus Qualification Round

[FlaviusAetius]

oh you right damo I did have 3 votes and KOTP had 3 votes, no votes were cancelled

[FlaviusAetius]

OK, SOMEONE got drugs and was clearly not on at EoD or they surely would have prevented the tie, no?

[Kakarroto]

I will be back SOON, I >dont< think damo is mafia that makes zero sense why would mafia then kill Diplomacy? He was gearing up to be the KILL today. Nah they did this because if its not damo and if its not diplomacy then its HB. OR maybe damo is getting too close to the truth IDK, maybe their getting desperate and are PR hunting?

Surely the champion & yoyo have found SOMETHING by now. Or maybe OMG it has to be yoyo as BB now no way he survives to D4??

##vote yoyo
you claimed D1 man

the shift onto d&w for most likely target to vote out crystallized only in the last minutes. Before we had only one angry Brian that cried to hammer d&w, but he cooled down and got away from it. So d&w was not in danger of being voted in the global mind.

Maybe people were silent sus, but nothing more. My whole "it's probably d&w not damo" manifest was released just moments before the phase shift, so mafia surly couldn't react to that.

So I wholeheartedly REJECT the notion that he was gearing up the kill today and that is why mafia was unlikely to nk him. On the contrary, before, d&w was not in danger and got townreads, so mafia was most likely thinking that he was not being able to being misvoted

ADDITIONALLY he had a whole thing with his mysterious code going on, and with his showing of the overall knowledge of the setting, mafia was probably guessing he was the champion.

[FlaviusAetius]

OK unless Im missing something there is NO MECH reason why someone over someone else should be mafia.

[Kakarroto]

For Chaqa-Flavius, both are on confirmed town on D1. They repeat that wagon on D2. How often will two mafia entertain the exact same wagon from one day to the next? Why would they? It seems...yeah, I am not sure. D3 is where they deviate. Flavius is on town (Brian) while Chaqa is on an unclear.

Right now I am thinking the Chaqa-Damo pair might be more likely than the Chaqa-Flavius pair.

For Chaqa-Dip, we have on D1 both on different confirmed town. For D2 Chaqa is on confirmed town while Dip is on the unclear slot. Day 3 is a complete unknown for either of them based on the tie.

For Chaqa - WillKak we have a repeat of the Chaqa-Dip positioning but somewhat differently. D1 both are on different confirmed town. On D2 Chaqa is on conftown as is WillKak. On D3 a little less clear since Chaqa is on an unclear while WillKak is on me.

Finally the Chaqa-King pairing. King votes Chaqa on D1 which could be a nice easy bus since there's no momentum on Chaqa. Chaqa is on conftown. D2 has chaqa on conftown while King's vote is on a nonclear. D3 King has a vote on no one. I see this pairing as the least likely; mafia do know that they want the miskills and I believe that they will probably let town lead the wagons since they will probably be miskills they don't have to take responsibility for. As mafia, King's vote could have been very important. I think pairing doesn't work. It does cause me to consider King more town than not.

As a hierarchy of most to least mafia pairings, I think I have:

Chaqa-Damo, Chaqa-WillKak, Chaqa-Dip, Chaqa-Flavius, Chaqa-King.

Looks like the common demoninator here is CHAQA.

Brian made a whole analysis of possible teams, but in several posts. This should be just the first of four or so. He focussed it in pairs of two, obviously, and ordered it with one name each. The other pair analysis should not contain any chaqa, but you will see other names that are 'common denominators' there (also, you miswrote that word, it has not to do with demon's, but nomen which is latin for name, as far as I know)

[Kakarroto]

@Kak
@Ham

You guys did HUGEEE posts at the EoN I just...I'm not sure what to think of it, I honestly say NAI. I think ANYONE could do big analyses like these and most of what you say seems to be true.

have you really read them? So you do conclude with me, that d&w is much more likely mafia than damo?

[Kakarroto]

EVERYONE WHO HAS NOT READ THE ENTIRE SETUP CAN SHUT UP ABOUT MECH, THANKS.
There are 3 ways for this extra vote to exist:
The Gambler correctly bet on the identity of the Champion (this is ruled out by the fact that the Champion has not died, and the mafia would flip the Champion if they knew who that was)
Either me or Damo received steroids (impossible unless damo is scum)
Or finally that the Champion is a Confident Champion and placed their second vote on FA.

Why is that guranteed that damo HAS to be scum here? That doesnt make sense to me; couldn't a drug dealer have given steroids to a VT?

I wasn't given steroids and I'm pretty certain Dip wasn't either.

I) he would have disclosed I think
Ii) what is the motivation for scum to give town an extra vote (unless they were fairly sure they had identified champ i guess).

Hence my conclusion that champ split vote. Champ must have previously holstered causing scum to think a save in play which would explain why yoyo still alive.

Well, I'm fairly certain that we don't have a confident, but a team player champion. Thus that option is just not possible that champ had that vote.

The only way that you are town, that I see, is that d&w made a huge blunder and got that mail, and either didn't see it or ignored it for whatever reason. I highly doubt this, but it is technically possible.

No, I think something else happened: Mafia thought d&w had chances of being the champion and nk'ed him, and if that's not the case, then the plan was, that damo who was on steroids posed as the champion, to sow doubt of what has happened, and force a counter claim of the real champion to help his teammate, after the plans to get Flav misvoted the previous day failed, and hoped to hide in a bigger crowd than just two.

However, mafia didn't account for Buff Boy yoyo to visit damo and thwarting his plan to claim champion, thus damo was forced to hard claim VT. But damo is a clever guy, so he also thought of the chance that confident champion exists, so he put that out as a pretense and hope that is enough to survive and parlay his survival.

So we all should vote out damo today. So far, no one has claimed to have gotten steroids, so mafia surly has buffed themselves up again, just to be able to win this day to make damo survive. So we must stay together and vote damo out, and don't risk a turnaround vote by a steroid abuse.

[FlaviusAetius]

@Kak
@Ham

You guys did HUGEEE posts at the EoN I just...I'm not sure what to think of it, I honestly say NAI. I think ANYONE could do big analyses like these and most of what you say seems to be true.

have you really read them? So you do conclude with me, that d&w is much more likely mafia than damo?

d&w is dead

[Kakarroto]

@Kak
@Ham

You guys did HUGEEE posts at the EoN I just...I'm not sure what to think of it, I honestly say NAI. I think ANYONE could do big analyses like these and most of what you say seems to be true.

have you really read them? So you do conclude with me, that d&w is much more likely mafia than damo?

d&w is dead

but my big analysis has about 50% d&w in it, with all that I point out he surly has to be mafia

but yes, he flipped town, so clearly my analysis was not "mostly true", or correct to find a better word. It was such a big part of it, that I just wondered if you have read it, or if you just gave it empty praise for whatever reason.

[FlaviusAetius]

Well I suppose I didnt READ READ it, .-. BRB let me go do that

[Kakarroto]

Well I suppose I didnt READ READ it, .-. BRB let me go do that

well, as we know now, I came to the wrong conclusions, but at least you can look at my thought process there. Although, we don't need to sort d&w anymore thanks to the flip, so it is not the most pressing issue. But feel free to read it closely.

[Kakarroto]

Anyway, back to the real matter.

We also see that damo did take a bit of time making his first post after EoN. Yoyo started posting 7 minutes after the full hour. There are some other posts happening with first reactions.

Damo's post comes live at 24 minutes after the full hour. And it doesn't look like he would need that long to process, if he would just share his first thoughts after the flip and the hardclaim.

Also, why hardclaim at this moment, really. A town player wouldn't have known that yoyo visited him. A town player would have played with the thought, that they could somewhat pose as the champion, to fool mafia. Doesn't even need to spill it out, just very slightly suggesting that the champion might've put a vote there (with a little 'wink wink' added maybe) and just let it be.

Damo? No, he just hardclaimed VT instantly as the second sentence. Reducing any cover for the champion that he might have given. This post just doesn't make sense from a town perspective.

A mafia player on the other hand would've known he could never pose as champion, as he would've been instantly informed that yoyo visited him. A mafia player would've been slightly concerned in this situation and tried to think, what he could do. So the logical part here is to instantly claim VT, to make absolutely sure that the buff boy doesn't get a wrong idea, and lets him off the hook.

But yoyo instantly noticed that something is up and called it out. So damo made a big mistake trying to hide there, posing as innocent town, instead of trying to think like a town in that position and keep the shield for the champion up as good as he could.

damo delenda est

[FlaviusAetius]

THIS TIME IM TAKING NOTES

I said previously that I AGREE with what you say about champion being a team player but just want to reitterate that. He DEF is, I mean just think of the saves he's probs been doing onto YOYO.

His post count could be DIFF because of gambler TBH...but besides that post count to me seems something that relaly fluctates based on IRL factors and NOT in game factors

A LOT of people were fierce bunny defenders but one of ht epeople who never even ENTERTAINED the arguments againt Bunny was DAMO

An OPENING JOKE about MICHAEL BAY MOVIE?
Is there anything that can happen during the day? Because if so this seems like a SIGNAL to mafia partner...

I think your whole N1 analysis of damo is faulty...where did Yoyo soft claim D1? I dont remember that AT ALL, I figure damo would have put mor e of an effort defending yoyo D2 instead of having him claim...

Saying mafia smiling to themselves at EoD is almost like tradition even you did that.

[FlaviusAetius]

Also, I lowkey expected to get a mute by mafia, due to my postings. Which I haven't.

So either they haven't gotten that ability, or they targeted someone else with it. Or maybe it just comes later? Well, I certainly don't plan to stop my involvement, so if you see me missing doing that, expect that I suffer from that.

Youve posted a TON they can only limit you by 15 posts and that is IF their correct, I think Gambler has got AT LEAST 2/3 post count guesses wrong at this point unless they've been betting on themselves

[FlaviusAetius]

OK that's a shock.

I hardclaim vt.

I did not get steroids otherwise I'd have disclosed. I assumed Dip got steroids from himself as Drug Dealer or his partner if Gambler. Hence I thought the possible scumpairs were DipChaqa DipKak Dipkotp (I dismissed Ham and Flav as too theatrical with Dip).

Now, however Dip has flipped VT.

There is only one solution: Champ put a second vote on Flav different to their public vote.

Therefore Flav is not champ.

Now given both Dip, champ and I voted Flav I think the obvious thing to do today is to continue to vote Flav. I suspect his partner is kotp.

##vote Flav

Know whats funny? When YOU did the pairing analysis most of your convincing pairings had KOTP...so why vote me

[FlaviusAetius]

WillKak I dont understand

[FlaviusAetius]

Anyway, back to the real matter.

We also see that damo did take a bit of time making his first post after EoN. Yoyo started posting 7 minutes after the full hour. There are some other posts happening with first reactions.

Damo's post comes live at 24 minutes after the full hour. And it doesn't look like he would need that long to process, if he would just share his first thoughts after the flip and the hardclaim.

Also, why hardclaim at this moment, really. A town player wouldn't have known that yoyo visited him. A town player would have played with the thought, that they could somewhat pose as the champion, to fool mafia. Doesn't even need to spill it out, just very slightly suggesting that the champion might've put a vote there (with a little 'wink wink' added maybe) and just let it be.

Damo? No, he just hardclaimed VT instantly as the second sentence. Reducing any cover for the champion that he might have given. This post just doesn't make sense from a town perspective.

A mafia player on the other hand would've known he could never pose as champion, as he would've been instantly informed that yoyo visited him. A mafia player would've been slightly concerned in this situation and tried to think, what he could do. So the logical part here is to instantly claim VT, to make absolutely sure that the buff boy doesn't get a wrong idea, and lets him off the hook.

But yoyo instantly noticed that something is up and called it out. So damo made a big mistake trying to hide there, posing as innocent town, instead of trying to think like a town in that position and keep the shield for the champion up as good as he could.

damo delenda est

Damo doesnt KNOW BB visited him unless he is Mafia
Why does he hardclaim VT right now hmmm thats a good point, maybe cause two of the townclears are voting him?

Why on earth would damo pose as Champion ?? Yoyo said he visited damo and then he VOTES for damo. There's no town or mafia reason to do that. Also isnt everyone just hardclaiming VT until they say otherwise? His big "hardclaim" really isn't telling us anything new

OK he visited damo...
That means damo is NOT champion, there are
1 BB
1 Champ
2 Maf
3 VT

2/5 chance that yoyo visited a mafia (damo)

Yea I just dont see how damo could under any logic pose as a Champion

[damo666]

For D3

Champion DID NOT have two votes D3(or else they would have used it D2 & D1, no?

Mafia can no longer bet on DK...

That means there MUST have been a bet on Post Count & Player's EoD Vote.
They were SUCCESSFUL...

THAT MEANS
kingofthepirates (3)
Yoyoyozo Hamilton Brian Chaqa


Yoyo, Ham OR Chaqa were bet on KOTP, thats the only way this makes sense IF damo did not get drugs.
Or OMG
The Gambler failed that vote and its one of those three.

@GM can confident champ holster their extra vote?

[damo666]

Anyway, back to the real matter.

We also see that damo did take a bit of time making his first post after EoN. Yoyo started posting 7 minutes after the full hour. There are some other posts happening with first reactions.

Damo's post comes live at 24 minutes after the full hour. And it doesn't look like he would need that long to process, if he would just share his first thoughts after the flip and the hardclaim.

Also, why hardclaim at this moment, really. A town player wouldn't have known that yoyo visited him. A town player would have played with the thought, that they could somewhat pose as the champion, to fool mafia. Doesn't even need to spill it out, just very slightly suggesting that the champion might've put a vote there (with a little 'wink wink' added maybe) and just let it be.

Damo? No, he just hardclaimed VT instantly as the second sentence. Reducing any cover for the champion that he might have given. This post just doesn't make sense from a town perspective.

A mafia player on the other hand would've known he could never pose as champion, as he would've been instantly informed that yoyo visited him. A mafia player would've been slightly concerned in this situation and tried to think, what he could do. So the logical part here is to instantly claim VT, to make absolutely sure that the buff boy doesn't get a wrong idea, and lets him off the hook.

But yoyo instantly noticed that something is up and called it out. So damo made a big mistake trying to hide there, posing as innocent town, instead of trying to think like a town in that position and keep the shield for the champion up as good as he could.

damo delenda est

I had to digest the result. When I saw the extra vote I jumped to the conclusion Dip had been given steroids and was therefore scum. I was shocked when he flipped vt.

I hardclaimed out of fear people would jump to the conclusion I was scum given steroids by myself or partner and be hammer killed.

Oh and btw you do realise you numptees are narrowing the champ possibilities for scum.

We are throwing this away with sloppy thinking.

[kingofthepirates]

EVERYONE must post over 80 posts today, if someone does not then we vote for them I say

If this could be done I’d get behind it, but I truly do not think it’s practical at all.