WebMafia Olympics: Bonus Qualification Round

[Chaqa]

@yoyo I don’t know how the roles work but if there’s any information you might have I think the time to share is approaching

[kingofthepirates]

Gm. Out for a while today, maybe be back in the evening. But tmr is going to be more active for me. So dip died VT, I therefore think he wasn’t bsing when he said he didn’t get steroids. I think there may be some validity to dips idea of confident champ, iff (if and only if) champ can holster. Was that ever answered?

[kingofthepirates]

Kaks meta analysis is interesting (skimmed briefly) but I don’t think it’s conclusive. There can and will always be outliers.

[Yoyoyozo]

I will be back SOON, I >dont< think damo is mafia that makes zero sense why would mafia then kill Diplomacy? He was gearing up to be the KILL today. Nah they did this because if its not damo and if its not diplomacy then its HB. OR maybe damo is getting too close to the truth IDK, maybe their getting desperate and are PR hunting?

Surely the champion & yoyo have found SOMETHING by now. Or maybe OMG it has to be yoyo as BB now no way he survives to D4??

##vote yoyo
you claimed D1 man

I actually claimed D2. I’m surprised I’m still alive. You sound like you’re complaining that there’s an uncc’d PR.

[FlaviusAetius]

EVERYONE WHO HAS NOT READ THE ENTIRE SETUP CAN SHUT UP ABOUT MECH, THANKS.
There are 3 ways for this extra vote to exist:
The Gambler correctly bet on the identity of the Champion (this is ruled out by the fact that the Champion has not died, and the mafia would flip the Champion if they knew who that was)
Either me or Damo received steroids (impossible unless damo is scum)
Or finally that the Champion is a Confident Champion and placed their second vote on FA.

Why is that guranteed that damo HAS to be scum here? That doesnt make sense to me; couldn't a drug dealer have given steroids to a VT?

[FlaviusAetius]

I will be back SOON, I >dont< think damo is mafia that makes zero sense why would mafia then kill Diplomacy? He was gearing up to be the KILL today. Nah they did this because if its not damo and if its not diplomacy then its HB. OR maybe damo is getting too close to the truth IDK, maybe their getting desperate and are PR hunting?

Surely the champion & yoyo have found SOMETHING by now. Or maybe OMG it has to be yoyo as BB now no way he survives to D4??

##vote yoyo
you claimed D1 man

I actually claimed D2. I’m surprised I’m still alive. You sound like you’re complaining that there’s an uncc’d PR.

I just find it so weird that you havent died yet, the fact that they went for DIPLOMACY makes no sense to me something is up. I'll back off for now... ##vote ham

[FlaviusAetius]

Also, I am going to AGAIN remind you guys that I tried to tie d2 to avoid BUNNYGO dying, which was a shitty wagon led by FLAVIUSAETIUS.

I RESPONDED to your concerns about it...

[FlaviusAetius]

Day 1 End Votes:
Haze: Dip, Will, Yoyo, Damo, Bunny
Bunny: ghug, chaqa, flavius
yoyo: jamie, Brian
Chaqa: king
Dip: haze

Day 2 End Votes:
Bunny,:Flavius, ghug, yoyo, will, chaqa
Will/Kak: Brian, king, Bunny, Dip
Flavius: Damo

Day 3 Final Votes

King: yoyo, Brian, chaqa...vote removed?
Flavius: Dip, damo ...vote added?
Brian: Flavius, WillKak
No Vote: King

I think you make a mistake about D2 remember? These were not the votes people wanted, they were the votes people did to avoid a tie

[damo666]

Having a sudden crisis with the kids involving poop in the shower.

So I guess that's your flavour.

Sorry!

DiplomacyandWarfare has died! He was a VANILLA TOWN BODYBUILDER.

YOU MAY NOW POST

Huh. I was pretty sure he was anything but VT

So was I

[FlaviusAetius]

For Chaqa-Flavius, both are on confirmed town on D1. They repeat that wagon on D2. How often will two mafia entertain the exact same wagon from one day to the next? Why would they? It seems...yeah, I am not sure. D3 is where they deviate. Flavius is on town (Brian) while Chaqa is on an unclear.

Right now I am thinking the Chaqa-Damo pair might be more likely than the Chaqa-Flavius pair.

For Chaqa-Dip, we have on D1 both on different confirmed town. For D2 Chaqa is on confirmed town while Dip is on the unclear slot. Day 3 is a complete unknown for either of them based on the tie.

For Chaqa - WillKak we have a repeat of the Chaqa-Dip positioning but somewhat differently. D1 both are on different confirmed town. On D2 Chaqa is on conftown as is WillKak. On D3 a little less clear since Chaqa is on an unclear while WillKak is on me.

Finally the Chaqa-King pairing. King votes Chaqa on D1 which could be a nice easy bus since there's no momentum on Chaqa. Chaqa is on conftown. D2 has chaqa on conftown while King's vote is on a nonclear. D3 King has a vote on no one. I see this pairing as the least likely; mafia do know that they want the miskills and I believe that they will probably let town lead the wagons since they will probably be miskills they don't have to take responsibility for. As mafia, King's vote could have been very important. I think pairing doesn't work. It does cause me to consider King more town than not.

As a hierarchy of most to least mafia pairings, I think I have:

Chaqa-Damo, Chaqa-WillKak, Chaqa-Dip, Chaqa-Flavius, Chaqa-King.

Looks like the common demoninator here is CHAQA.

[damo666]

So the mafia team is just KOTP and Damo, right?

Wrong. Not me anyway.

[damo666]

@yoyo I don’t know how the roles work but if there’s any information you might have I think the time to share is approaching

This smacks of PR hunting.

[FlaviusAetius]

@Kak
@Ham

You guys did HUGEEE posts at the EoN I just...I'm not sure what to think of it, I honestly say NAI. I think ANYONE could do big analyses like these and most of what you say seems to be true.

[damo666]

EVERYONE WHO HAS NOT READ THE ENTIRE SETUP CAN SHUT UP ABOUT MECH, THANKS.
There are 3 ways for this extra vote to exist:
The Gambler correctly bet on the identity of the Champion (this is ruled out by the fact that the Champion has not died, and the mafia would flip the Champion if they knew who that was)
Either me or Damo received steroids (impossible unless damo is scum)
Or finally that the Champion is a Confident Champion and placed their second vote on FA.

Why is that guranteed that damo HAS to be scum here? That doesnt make sense to me; couldn't a drug dealer have given steroids to a VT?

I wasn't given steroids and I'm pretty certain Dip wasn't either.

I) he would have disclosed I think
Ii) what is the motivation for scum to give town an extra vote (unless they were fairly sure they had identified champ i guess).

Hence my conclusion that champ split vote. Champ must have previously holstered causing scum to think a save in play which would explain why yoyo still alive.

[FlaviusAetius]

ok, I was off of my analysis. Great. But my initial d&w feelings was correct, which is nice!

He didn't ever say to have received a message, so that means, damo is our confirmed mafia now, right?

##vote damo

I just realized something...
Bet on Player’s EoD Vote:

Success: Target Player’s vote does not count.

Failure: Gambler’s vote does not count.

NOTE: This bet resolves and its effect activates end of day.

Is it possible that D3 was 2v2 instead of 3v3 because someone in the KOTP wagon got their vote CANCELLED?

[FlaviusAetius]

EVERYONE WHO HAS NOT READ THE ENTIRE SETUP CAN SHUT UP ABOUT MECH, THANKS.
There are 3 ways for this extra vote to exist:
The Gambler correctly bet on the identity of the Champion (this is ruled out by the fact that the Champion has not died, and the mafia would flip the Champion if they knew who that was)
Either me or Damo received steroids (impossible unless damo is scum)
Or finally that the Champion is a Confident Champion and placed their second vote on FA.

Why is that guranteed that damo HAS to be scum here? That doesnt make sense to me; couldn't a drug dealer have given steroids to a VT?

I wasn't given steroids and I'm pretty certain Dip wasn't either.

I) he would have disclosed I think
Ii) what is the motivation for scum to give town an extra vote (unless they were fairly sure they had identified champ i guess).

Hence my conclusion that champ split vote. Champ must have previously holstered causing scum to think a save in play which would explain why yoyo still alive.

Right now Im trying to think of other ways D3 might have shook out besides someone having a double vote

[FlaviusAetius]

NOTE: Once a player hits their post limit, the GM will notify them via PM that they are muted for the rest of the phase. The GM will be as diligent as possible in notifying the player in a timely manner, but it may be possible that they inadvertently exceed their post limit. There will be no penalty for this. If a player gets muted before making a valid vote, they must make a valid vote before end of day. They may not include any text other than the vote.

Failure: Every two failures will reduce the Gambler's post count limit by 10. First, a limit of 80 posts will be established. Then after two more failures the limit will be 70, then after two more it will be 60, and so on.

NOTE: This bet resolves end of day and its effect activates the next day phase.


EVERYONE must post over 80 posts today, if someone does not then we vote for them I say

[damo666]

ok, I was off of my analysis. Great. But my initial d&w feelings was correct, which is nice!

He didn't ever say to have received a message, so that means, damo is our confirmed mafia now, right?

##vote damo

I just realized something...
Bet on Player’s EoD Vote:

Success: Target Player’s vote does not count.

Failure: Gambler’s vote does not count.

NOTE: This bet resolves and its effect activates end of day.

Is it possible that D3 was 2v2 instead of 3v3 because someone in the KOTP wagon got their vote CANCELLED?

No because then the vote total would appear less than votes cast.

[damo666]

Why is that guranteed that damo HAS to be scum here? That doesnt make sense to me; couldn't a drug dealer have given steroids to a VT?

I wasn't given steroids and I'm pretty certain Dip wasn't either.

I) he would have disclosed I think
Ii) what is the motivation for scum to give town an extra vote (unless they were fairly sure they had identified champ i guess).

Hence my conclusion that champ split vote. Champ must have previously holstered causing scum to think a save in play which would explain why yoyo still alive.

Right now Im trying to think of other ways D3 might have shook out besides someone having a double vote

Additional, not double. That's significant.

[FlaviusAetius]

For D3

Champion DID NOT have two votes D3(or else they would have used it D2 & D1, no?

Mafia can no longer bet on DK...

That means there MUST have been a bet on Post Count & Player's EoD Vote.
They were SUCCESSFUL...

THAT MEANS
kingofthepirates (3)
Yoyoyozo Hamilton Brian Chaqa


Yoyo, Ham OR Chaqa were bet on KOTP, thats the only way this makes sense IF damo did not get drugs.
Or OMG
The Gambler failed that vote and its one of those three.