WebMafia Olympics: Bonus Qualification Round

[Chaqa]

If I die kill kgray

[Kakarroto]

I've wanted to have a closer look today at the two who had the extra vote. I'm convinced one, if not both, are mafia here. I don't believe we have a confident champion, but a teamplayer. So that means that vote change must've originated from mafia. If it was from an unvoluntarily town steroid use, then that town misplayed it bigly by not revealing they got infused. Though not impossible, but I think I will not convinced that happened. Both damo and d&w should be good enough to not make this mistake. Thus, I conclude either or both are mafia here, getting the steroids for themselves or their partner.

I plan to read the game anew from the beginning, but quite at the start I remembered brains post and analysis of player behaviours, post and word counts when they are town and mafia. I also remembered that damo had quite a nice section dedicated to him. So I'm trying to gain insight by using brains analysis.

(position) (posts) (chars) (w/post) (player)
D1: 9 - 37 - 507 - 2767 - 13.70 - damo666
N1: 6 - 14 - 108 - 547 - 7.71 - damo666
D2: 5 - 58 - 1013 - 5350 - 17.47 - damo666
N2: 0000000
D3: 4 - 44 - 1398 -7154 - 31.77 - damo666
N3: 9 - 1 - 40 - 169 - 40.00 - damo666


the information from brain post on 19th of July 2024 in the "past-games-archive" folder on discord (WebDip Mafia server)

damo's post average as mafia: 124
damo's post average as town: 214.7

damo's character average as mafia: 13113
damo's character average as town: 20654.2

damo's W/ post as mafia: 20.94
damo's W/ post as town: 18.842

damo's words average as mafia: 2596
damo's words average as town: 4027.2

then we have to keep in mind, that damo did a string of one word posts, to 'test' something he didn't explain; also a bunch of posting the same stuff and adding just a few words, repeatedly. This definitely should influence the normal behaviour and we should not forget that

damo's global game statistics:

(position) (posts) (words) (chars) (w/post)
5 154 3066 15987 19.91 damo666

on the first glance, he looks about in the middle of his W/post count. But we know he did his 'test' of one word posts, which influences the words per post down. So we should recalculate this.

(on page 59 to 60, reads on people but adding one at a post; on page 60, 6 one-word posts. I think I need to remove this from the dataset to get a clearer picture here.)

8 unnecessary posts with 177 words plus 6 posts with 6 words, result in 14 posts with 183 words that should be subtracted from the overall number. That changes it to 140 posts and 2883 words. Which brings us to a 20.59285 words per average

this new number is very close to his mafia average.

his post average is close to his mafia game, and when we consider the few one char posts, it seems this figure is artificially bloated. So this figure points to having maf-damo. We have to consider two things though: a) it should be lower right now due to the bloated postings, and b) the game isn't over. So overall, this might not be a good stat to look at.

his character average is also in the middle between his usual values, but a bit closer to his maf-values. However, this seems a bit inconclusive to me, especially since the game is ongoing and this number only grows.

his word average too is behaving similar, though maybe a little bit closer to his mafia value. Given both this and the former are showing the same, it could be inconclusive too, and the same as above is true.

all in all, since the game isn't over, we don't have a full picture of the statistics. It is however noteworthy, that his words per post average is so close to his mafia range, and that there was something unusual happening from him that changed it to look not as close to it as it actually should be.

[Kakarroto]

post 128 page 7 (d&w): puts up a list leading with him, then 2 dead townies and damo as town; puts dead towny and chaqa on the lowest, and everyone else in the 'null line'
-> damo's positioning here is suspicious, a maf partner would want put his partner right about there, not too commited, but giving him a good save town position. Not too high, for later "oh no I've been fooled" if flip
it's so early though it could just be a joke. He was a fierce bunny defender though, so hmm.

d&w also strongly concerned he'd been bet on, thus he things he needs to post more

despite being so audibly concerend to be in his 30-100 range, this are his D1 stats:
8 - 48 - 1096 - 5864 - 22.83 - DiplomacyandWarfare

right smack in, at 48 posts. Very strange. As mafia, I thought (if he was gambler) he would go through and just had a high bet on himself and hit the goal. As town, I would believe he would say the truth. This just feels unnecessarily chaotic.

on D2, he posts more, but stays (just by a small bit) inside his self proclaimed range
1 - 95 - 2394 - 12668 - 25.20 - DiplomacyandWarfare

95 posts. Very involved, topposter. He did also motivate others to post more.

anyway, back to D1, damo made some offhand funny quip, which bunny calls out that 'damo is reading everything', but there have no damo posts in the past discussions (see page 12).

d&w then connects haze and jamie as gambler and dealer, when jamie retorts that d&w's reads are childish and he takes no effort to read, d&w guns down on haze and throws stuff at him (terrible haze posts/useless haze post)

then d&w points out kotp's excellent posts, where he pressures lurkers, his reads on bunny will and chaqa mirror his own. He also admires his writing style, judges him to contribute in positive ways that seem organic and accurate
-> this is on page 14. Kotp's posts so far were: an opening joke about a Michael Bay movie, a question how to speed up the game, one sheep joke, asking damo the reason why will+jamie is mafia, a pink admiring comment, a gambler joke, a comment that a vote is invalid, and one post that gives some nice thoughts where he also calls out some people who insta-towns him for the posts he made so far calling it buddying
yeah, I definitely don't concur with d&w's point of view there. Sure, this single post on page 8 was ok, quite nice, but man, how he phrases that is like putting kotp on a pedestal, as if he is mafia champ ten years in a row. Which it wasn't. It was nice and offered good insight, but not how d&w describes it. Organic, sure, yes. But this feels much more like attempted buddying from d&w than anything else.

d&w's second read list: kotp shot to the top (if we ignore putting himself on there), bunny stays good, shares place with will, Brian bit below. Then there is the null line, ghug, damo and yoyo are now the same, saying they are low quality contributers. Below chaqa due to sheep, jamie and haze still his top mafia

on page 20, haze points out (quoting d&w), that d&w is doing the thing that he is accusing jamie of. Adds that neither he nor will believes a thing they're saying

page 21, flav points out d&w's little effort for his reads. Then ghug points out (quoting a d&w post) that bad takes = town vibes

page 24, damo clarifies that one of haze, will and flav has to be mafia, according to his former statement. We all know haze wasn't mafia, and I sure know I'm not and therefore will wasn't. So it could only be flav, or damo is/was wrong (or lied).

on the same page, post 480, the last post on the page - damo talking to flav about his bolding of texts. Please read it for yourself, but wow, this rings alarmbells here, the style and tone is different from the usual damo until now, it has the same vibe as foxcastle to bunny, politely, but chastising a style of play. This has strong maf to maf vibes, where damo asks his partner to let it be and stop it.

next page damo messes up two quotes, and ghug proves that bunny is mafia

and damo votes flav, declares later because he was annoyed because jamie called it out

then jamie calls out d&w's short memory about his different stances voting on flav

then d&w asks if Brian accused him of buddying kotp, or if it's the other way around (which he a little bit later confirms it's the former, [note from editor: which notion I support, Brian is seeing the same thing as I here] and d&w defends against it quite nicely. So it might just be that d&w wasn't aware of this.)

then d&w answers a question from Brian, of his townreads, who he would take to the final three (kotp and bunny) and who whe would dread (Brian)

ghug notices bunny gets voted and declares him town

damo (weak) reads on page 29, post 572 - don't like bunny wagen, does haze wagon. Declares flav is flav and policy voting him, and will move away from him later (note from editor: weird thing to say, right?). Doesn't know much of what to do with will, sees kotp as weaktown, chaqa could be anything but not get voted, nulls d&w and is surprised he gets no votes, has no idea about ghug but gets a D1pass, feels Brian is more chatty but also get D1pass, smells townJamie will not vote, feels bad vibes on yoyo and votes him. Declares he will change to haze if yoyo doesn't get traction

then comments on his own readlist that he "hadn't realized how non-commital it was." and guesses it's because of D1

damo wants to retire the will-reaction test bollocks (which feels odd if he's mafia)

next page, damo suggest kotp as a maf additon to ghug's vibe list (since he forgot to include him there) and ghug agrees

page 32, post 634, haze proclaims that d&w's answer to Brian's final 3 question feels like a wolf (or maf) slip. Explains that "if two TR's are in the final with you, that means you are mafia" - bit later, bunny finds it very interesting

haze reacts to kotp's will/d&w maf pair and agrees with it

then damo ask if bunny is scared (being only one vote behind the leading wagon)

then he points out how ominously quiet it is (~25 minutes of no posts), though is getting sniped by bunny declaring Shabbat dinner absence

damo critiques Flav's post, which says he is behind, on page 26, has not time for catchup but will be there for EoD, want to start at page 35. Damo points out it's only page 34, currently.

right afterwards flav quotes a GM question from Brian (start of page 33), which asks about N0 chat/actions. Weird flav reaction, in my opinion. Why answer a GM question not directed to you. Why page 33, if you are behind on page 26 and want to start contribution on page 35 (which didn't exist yet at that time). Really weird.

ok, then he clarified not page 35, but 33. Makes much more sense. Fine, moving on.

damo obliges an direct appeal of yoyo to switch off since he's not mafia. I think this is a very town-damo way of play here. Damo is normally concerned to not vote PR's when he's town, and I think with this appeal he thought that yoyo very slightly softed his PR status. Quietly moving away and not drawing attention to it, plus yoyo not being the nk on N1, is definitely some townpoints for damo here. It's sad that he went for haze which from my first reading, and now rereading considered towny, but it's still something what town damo would do, and maf damo not so much.

although he changes to flav in a quote, where bunny votes and quotes flav that it's "not the haze wagon again"

and changes back to haze quoting yoyo's post, where he votes haze (and bunny follows)

That concludes D1, and sadly, Haze's exit from the game.

during the night, d&w asks why sharing maf-reads, due to the gambler (when he himself failed his own goal of posting 120 posts to escape his selfdeclared 30-100 post range)

jamie declaring, that in the three people of damo yoyo bunny (who moved to haze in the last 10 minutes), at least one mafia has to be, and he will only vote in this pool of three. With bunny being gone and yoyo being PR, that would leave only damo.

yoyo quoting damo's (weak) readlist, pointing out hat he gave him bad vibes, but simply telling "I'm not mafia" was enough to change his mind. (Again, I think that can be explained with town-damo's mindset, where such a simple statement can be read as PR softing. And he did behave like that afterward, as if that could be the case)

ghug declares that flav is unlikely mafia with bunny or yoyo (well, both are town, so yeah)

damo explains himself to the changing vote question, then suspects that both mafia were inactive at EoD just smiling to themselves (Interesting take)

ghug points out town vibes from damo, but that he could be mafia if he does things like that

jamie thinks that yoyo is probably mafia (which we know is false)

then points out that damo late vote shenanigans on D1 happened in the last mini too, where he was town

d&w then answers a Brian question about EoD participation, where he said that something came up and couldn't make EoD. Was that also why d&w couldn't make his 120 posts?

jamie battles d&w's maf read of jamie, as d&w had jamie and haze as the mafteam since forever, but stayed on jamie is mafia even when haze flipped town

then ghug counters that stubborness is townie

flav points out after looking at the late switchers, that damo does sus stuff all the time. Hmm, not totally untrue.

then quotes Brian asking damo about the late switch, disagreeing with Brian, that damo has been acting like in his past few games

N1 ends with jamie being forced out of the gym, sadly. D&W never answered jamie's questions why he was so focussed on him, even after haze flipped town

AS IT IS CLOSE TO EoN, I'LL STOP HERE (FOR NOW). Starting off, I was thinking damo was much more sus than d&w. That both could be mafia together, but tended to think that if someone is mafia, damo looks much liklier. Now, after reading D1 and N1 again with the double focus, I'm not so sure about damo. He had some sus stuff, but he had also that town-damo screaming thing. On the other hand, d&w didn't look so good as on the first readout, missing his self proclaimed goal, suspecting jamie and haze, then still sussing jamie after haze flipped, and not answering jamie's push for answers mid night. Did he know that jamie would turn up to be the nk and couldn't be bothered? Was the 120 post thing just a ploy due to a bet on himself not getting as much, and having a good explanation later for "oh, but if I'm gambler, then I wouldn't post such a high goal and miss it by more than a half of it"? Hmm hmm.

[Kakarroto]

Looking at EoD3. Situation: flav was leading, Brian behind, then kotp with a single vote, and a no-kill unvote from kotp himself. Then damo changes to voting Brian, seemingly tieing the two wagons. We now know that was not the case, because either damo or d&w had a double vote.

Situation grows stale, not much movement, less discussion. Kak seems to get nervous, states that he fears that he is wrong and mafia is content with the situation, but there is not much reaction to Kak's communication. Then damo mentions, neither Brian nor Flav will move, and chaqa might not be here in time. He also doubts that d&w will move his endvote and thinks kotp is asleep (which he later confirms). He then asks Kak, if he would prefer a tie or a Flav-exit, if yoyo doesn't come back to change from kotp. Kak thinks, then has a crazy(?) thought, pivoting to kotp. The reasoning is that kotp, even as town, will miss any future EoD, and is either mafia or a liability in that regard, and Flav can reasonably only be on a maf team with kotp (as damo stated before). So even while Kak somewhat townreads kotp, he also townleans Flav, but thinks they could either get a mafia or clear maf with that. Then he thinks that a no-kill might be better, but after thinking it through, finds out that no, better get a flip that day. So even if it's wrong and a town flips, it is better. Kak then proceeds to answer damo that they could put kotp in lead if damo, brian and kak himself changes to him, since that would put him to four, instead of Brian or Flav. Damo agrees on the "better flip than no-kill" sentiment. Kak then votes kotp due to previous stated reasons, 7 minutes before EoD. Brian reports back (is in the drink, whatever that exactly is) and asks what Kak/damo wants him to do. Damo immediatly says 'stay' and votes Flav. States that he thinks that Kak is trying to save Flav. Kak writes his reasonings again to Brian (it's 2 minutes before EoD), one minute before EoD Brian votes kotp 'for shits', chaqa reports back with 'would vote kotp but don't want to tie', then votes kotp seeing brian. Kak, answering damo's post that it looks to him as if Kak is trying to save flav, states that yes, he feels more town than mafia, then vote Brian (ADDITION FROM KAK'S BRAIN: as his preferred target and in spite of damo's switch to Flav, as he didn't see Brian's and Chaqa's last minute votes). (Kak being surprised by the appearance of Chaqa and vote for kotp, thinking a bit why he didn't react to communication sooner.)

Then the GM Message to stop posting, and Brian trying to change the vote to Flavius too late. Kak thinking, that kotp is the vote as now three people are on him, and only two on the other two, Kak waits for the flip and predicts with a little hurt in his heart a town flip, still hoping for the small chance that they get mafia, then noticing the number behind Flav's name and messaging the GM to confirm if that is the offical vote and not a typo (missing the "And yes, Flavius does have 3 votes." note fromt he GM due to sudden Adrenaline). Now, a different picture comes to Kak's mind, that actual, all three of kotp, Flav and Brian were town, and by sheer luck and overlapping they not only avoided a misvote of a town, but also isolated mafia. Kak looks back at the game in the setup document and concludes, that vote manipulation happened through steroid abuse. He quotes the power he found in the document and shares his thoughts about it, and states that there was no claim to have received that information shortly before the Phase shift, so it has to come from mafia, so either one or both of damo and d&w has/have to be mafia.

However, he gets somehow sniped by a d&w double post, where he first claims to have been sabotaged by a software update and asking damo if he had received a message, then one minute later posting 3 (!!!) reasons for the extra vote. One the reason Kak quoted, and two more obscure ones that aren't instantly seen in the document.

Then chaqa comes in and laments the EoD result blaming kak (quote: "Kak... man"), Kak trying to get a picture of the full situation, d&w suspecting a chaqa Brian team after the EoD, and finally chaqa noticing that it wasn't Kak's fault and asks for explanations.

A bit later, damo posts that he narrowed it down to 3 pairings, and will not speculate or post again at night. If he gets nk'ed, he trusts that people will work it out.


THOUGHTS the quality and the speed of d&w's 3 reason post kinda suggest previous knowledge of what happened. Compare that to Kak's reaction, where he noticed the tie and scrambled enthusiastically in the rules document and found one to post it, or Chaqa who thought it was a players fault and then just realize something happened.

Previously, I thought the sudden appearence and vote for kotp from Chaqa, with Brian voting kotp before too, suspicious, a possible Flav-Chaqa connection. But looking at it again, seeing how d&w reacted, he looks much more suspicious. At first I was of the opinion, that damo was the one with the double vote, that he was too calm changing to Brian, away from Flav, and he wanted to trap me as he always intended to change back to Flav. But in retrospect, it could've been just a reaction test. D&W on the other hand looks as if he has TMI.

[sweetandcool]

NIGHT HAS ENDED

PLEASE HOLD

[Kakarroto]

quick notes and reads

both jamie and ghug suspected damo, and turned up to be the nk that night. Maybe coincidence, maybe just wanting to make damo look shady, but shouldn't be overlooked.

chaqa needs to do more. Has towny things, but I fear a deep threat

kotp quite towny

flav lean town but maybe I'm wrong

brian was often obv towned by now dead people

shoot time

[sweetandcool]

Having a sudden crisis with the kids involving poop in the shower.

So I guess that's your flavour.

Sorry!

DiplomacyandWarfare has died! He was a VANILLA TOWN BODYBUILDER.

YOU MAY NOW POST

[Yoyoyozo]

LOL what?

[Yoyoyozo]

##vote damo

[Kakarroto]

ok, I was off of my analysis. Great. But my initial d&w feelings was correct, which is nice!

He didn't ever say to have received a message, so that means, damo is our confirmed mafia now, right?

##vote damo

[Kakarroto]

also, that means he got those three reasonings just right after his computer incident.

Impressive.

[Hamilton Brian]

Jesus!!

Any end hammer involved? I think Damo is a good start.

Kak has written too much and I can’t read it and walk right now.

[Kakarroto]

What I didn't come to post in time:

why haven't you posted anything during EoD Flav? You were on the block and stuff. I get it not posting during night, but still, what is going on here? You were very close of getting voted out there

[Kakarroto]

Jesus!!

Any end hammer involved? I think Damo is a good start.

Kak has written too much and I can’t read it and walk right now.

mostly a damo and d&w analysis, only came to look at D1 and N1 by it, where I talked myself out of damo and into believing d&w is the mafia we are searching for

[Yoyoyozo]

Wait…

[Kakarroto]

Also, I lowkey expected to get a mute by mafia, due to my postings. Which I haven't.

So either they haven't gotten that ability, or they targeted someone else with it. Or maybe it just comes later? Well, I certainly don't plan to stop my involvement, so if you see me missing doing that, expect that I suffer from that.

[Yoyoyozo]

##vote Ham
I’ll be back with my reasoning later

[Kakarroto]

Wait…

m webmafia olympics bonus quali round - hammer time.png (29.79 KiB) Viewed 254 times

[Kakarroto]

##vote Ham
I’ll be back with my reasoning later

ok, not hammer time.

ok, will wait for that. You think Brians whole team pairing analyse was a scam?

[Yoyoyozo]

Wait…

m webmafia olympics bonus quali round - hammer time.png

Always