WebMafia Olympics: Bonus Qualification Round

[Kakarroto]

FACTS. a longterm HB is mafia hands down for me

explain game one then

idk I wasnt in game 1 or even read it. IDK what happened there only that the D1 was a big mess.

Brian was town until the end, even quite good, so that he got enough votes to proceed, even when he was on the losing team

there is also the item game, where I was mafia, I think it was Will's first game here (?), where he was town and made it to the final four. Where I barely won as mafia, because Will looked a little bit more sus than me.

So if Brian is alive a long time, it doesn't mean he is necessarily mafia

[Kakarroto]

ok, caught up. 2 am here, so probably not too long around? Maybe I soldier on if people respond.

Btw, not much has happened since I started. Isn't it like afternoon in the US? There should be more going on, no?

Anyway, yoyo should be hands off, d&w is a townlean for me, currently. Flav I'm flip flopping, but I think he is more town here.

I don't have a good read about kotp, though not necessarily mafia. I could see him being there, coasting, though, so valid vote target. Chaqa I don't have a good feel for too, need more interaction with him to determine more. Voting there is not wrong.

I'm currently more sus on damo and Brian. First damo had a team of jamie and will, than that totally vanished, and after jamie was targeted N1, it didn't influence anything about will, and suddenly he paired will more with flav. Compare that with ghug being targeted N2 after he uttered him sussing damo. Not likeing it. Very much not liking it.

And I've seen some moves that connect Brian with damo, possibly. I think that there is not an unreasonable chance that both are mafia together.

Sure, could be coincidence and I might read Flav wrongly, but I ain't mafia and maybe I should vote kotp with yoyo but I just read 78 pages of this game and I at least want to express my sus on damo.

so ##vote damo666

NGL I was suspecting something more like a deep analysis on the development of the game or something. I think you put a decent case against damo but it doesnt even feel like a real one rather you are hedging on damo and masking it over with a vote that will probs go no where anyways

WHY do you need interaction with Chaqa he's said plenty

I came home pretty late, read stuff up I missed on discord, then noticed that sweet had put out a question for a sub, which I responded to; then I began reading the game as fast as I can.

took me 4 hours and 42 minutes, if I'm counting the time on here correctly, to read up the 78 pages. With that information input and the time pressure, I think it's rather silly to expect an indepth analysis

as for hedging, what can I say, I always do that when I'm not sure, and I'm seldom really are. At least for gut feelings and fast conclusions/theories. See, while I want to get to the truth, I also don't want to look bad or stupid, so I don't put in too much confidence when I have doubts (which I have, oh boy, there are doubts everywhere).

That's just something you have to deal with when trying to read me. I try to have an open mind, not getting tunnely, trying to think 'what if'. The more we think of possibilities, the more we see what is logical, what is plausible, and what is rubbish, from our thoughts.

So yeah, I am not convinced that damo is mafia. Possible? Oh, yes. But it's neither a proven fact nor gospel.

As for chaqa, I need more data to determine if he's town, mafia, or mafia acting as if he's town. I also need information how he reacts to me, to get a better feeling.

[Kakarroto]

If I could vote for Dip & Chaqa here I WOULD. Doing my case on Chaqa SOON

you have a vote, right? Use it. You aren't banned from voting any of those two

[Kakarroto]

the endvote was mostly to emphasize that I was serious. I don't actually want to hammer this.
##unend

It got dangerously close I honestly expected it would be joeover for me when I got back home

yes, it did get very close

so, if Flav is town, I don't think mafia would've let this chance pass. So we have a high probability, that both mafia were already on Flav in that case. Kotp, yoyo and I all had the chance to endvote and didn't.

I think we have to look at those endvotes, and the development of it. That would tell us a lot if Flav is town.

If Flav is maf ... well, then town missed a quick removal of a mafia. It might very well that the other mafia would endvote here, especially with the possibility of a long night, but it wouldn't be necessarily so. So I don't think we can not infer too much from it. Though I concede, that I would look more like I was trying to save Flav here.

[Hamilton Brian]

Nothing changed besides paranoia and panic. I would have voted Will but I assumed the votes were shifting that it would be a tie if I did.

Which ISNT a bad thing BTW, if there is a tie no DK no NK

Why wouldn’t there be a NK?

It's an interesting question. It's assuming that the Gambler bet was on the daykill. If Bunny was the bet, and bunny didn't die, then there would be no night kill.

Is Flav speaking from a place of knowledge here? They KNEW bunny was the bet?

[Kakarroto]

Suddenly a different game now with Kak involved.

Doesn't change the complexion of the Will votes, but we really don't have the time and space to offer Kak to establish themselves as town or not.

We need to see where this day leads us and I am willing to ##UNEND to use it to get further information.

The case on Will was horrible from the jump and Kak here proved how much that argument was silly on its face. VERY sus tho of all the people (cough including yourself) that were SURE of Will's mafianess and now all of a sudden arent

PERHAPS people realize crossing against Kak is a mistake if we dont kill mafia today Kak dies N3, Yoyo dies D4, we lose

you think I would be nk'ed before yoyo? Explain your thoughts please

[Kakarroto]

Hamilton is my strongest townread.

Damo I frankly have had a nullish read on but he's said one or two things lately that have me thinking he should be a wagon after we resolve Flavius.

Re: Flav... I don't think he HAS to be mafia. I think he is likely to be mafia and I think he needs to be flipped before LYLO anyway so we may as well find out now.

I see, thanks. So I'm pretty sure the HB-damo mafteam is rubbish in your mind?

regarding flipping flav before the end: I guess too many people have him as sus, so I guess that's right. I think today might not be the best if we care about the gambler, though if he is mafia it would be still a victory. I want to hear what he has to say, and if he is town, I think it might be better to wait for another day to flip him.

Why must I be flipped at all ? There are other sus people that poeple think besides just me...what have I done besides fail on one read like cmon people

well, many people maf read you, so if you are allowed to proceed to the very end, people would probably be blocked by a "but what if Flav is mafia" and just vote you out. If you're mafia, that good of course (though we should've voted you out sooner), and if you're town, that's very bad.

Also, your alignment might be crucial to get us thinking straight, like, if you flip town, we could very easily retract kotp, yoyo and me from the maf pool and focus on the other four. If you are mafia, we get a lot of time, and the likelyhood of some of those endvoting you goes way, way down. Though in that case, I think it doesn't really clear anyone.

So yeah, maybe 'must flip' is not fully true, but knowing your alignment, really knowing it, could go far for us.

[Kakarroto]

well, it's 6:20 am here, and I'm really tired. Pretty sure I saw flav in the list for a time, but not for a time anymore. Maybe he's making a megapost, or just don't post at all.

Wanted to wait to see his response, that he said would come, but will see later after I got some sleep if something comes. But maybe I was just wrong in my town lean read there :/

anyway, good night, and keep talking, kotp and damo should be have a good time frame, so I suggest you to to get to it, too.

I leave this tab open 24/7 unless Im playing some kind of game because my computer is really bad and needs everything shut off basically

ugh, I shall not fall into the pit of trying to metagame. Happened often enough that this was the case

[Kakarroto]

Impressive catch up f on Kak but if Will had bequeathed him a scum role it was right up Kai's alley to provide such a performance.

I think his vote on me is an excuse not to vote Flav.

When Flav flips scum Kak should go next.

In the unlikely event Flav flips town we should probably look at Chaqa.

If the scumpair are in {Dip, Ham, kotp} we have almost certainly lost anyway.

what is this doomer mentality? Stop this, we aren't near to lose. It is 6:2 right now, right? 5:2 if we get it wrong, 4:2 if there is no save. Tomorrow, if we misvote again, then it is 3:2, sure, but the possibility of a save lives on.

Furthermore, it is only day 3, and you are way too locked in to your reads. How can you be that sure? This reminds me much more of your mafgame, where you try to put thoughts into the mind of town, that are just wrong. The game is still wide open, and all of dip, ham and kotp has the chance of being mafia.

Also I doubt I could do this in that way as mafia. Honestly, I fear the next time I'm mafia, because I will probably voted out so quickly since I can't be myself, really, or at least my town self. I was so happy when I read the role info from sweet, although I got the info a little bit late, as sweet was busy at the time, and it all had a feel of haste and rush. But I got all info in the end, so all great.

Anyway, we are not on a fixed path, and we need to use our brains to think, so if you are town, stop shutting down.

[Kakarroto]

Usually a good time for one of these since I haven't seen it yet.

Day 1 End Votes:
Haze: Dip, Will, Yoyo, Damo, Bunny
Bunny: ghug, chaqa, flavius
yoyo: jamie, Brian
Chaqa: king
Dip: haze

Day 2 End Votes:
Bunny, Flavius, ghug, yoyo, will, chaqa
Will/Kak: Brian, king, Bunny, Dip
Flavius: Damo

Day 2 had the scrambling movement to prevent the tie so we need to look at the early votes leading up to the end.

Regarding Damo, was on the D1 kill wagon. What's a more likely alignment to sit on a vanity while all of that movement is happening? How invested as mafia to sit there? If Will as a scum partner is in danger, wouldn't they move to save or just decide to let it play out?

So if WillKak is mafia then damo =/= mafia or damo is mafia so WillKak =/= mafia?

Not very reliable thinking though.

what makes you think, I wouldn't hellbus my mafteammate?

just look at M72: I subbed in for Donny, who was mafia, at a time where it was a toss up between my mafia partner and a town. Damo was mafia at the time btw, and I think the other town on the block was Bob

I just voted damo and got him out of the game, and got to the end. Damo probably didn't deserve this and I should be ashamed doing that, but I saw a path of victory, and if I sided with damo voting out bob, I thought we will lose.

But yeah, me voting damo here doesn't make us not maf partners. I mean I'm town, but you can't defer anything from that vote. Well other that I think that we should remove damo.

[Yoyoyozo]

I JUST looked up D2 and controll F'ed Diplomacy did not say "tie" or "tying" EVER

IIRC Chaqa mentioned the word for his last vote. When I’m done catching up, I’ll quote him.

[Yoyoyozo]

Oh you’re referring to the player, not the site. lol okay I’m going to drink my coffee and get a little work done then catch up.

[Chaqa]

Which ISNT a bad thing BTW, if there is a tie no DK no NK

Why wouldn’t there be a NK?

It's an interesting question. It's assuming that the Gambler bet was on the daykill. If Bunny was the bet, and bunny didn't die, then there would be no night kill.

Is Flav speaking from a place of knowledge here? They KNEW bunny was the bet?

Wait, can the mafia lose their NK based on the gambler?

I should probably read what the roles do at some point...

[Kakarroto]

As I see it, the three main perpetrators of the BunnyGo wagon were FA, ghug, and yoyo. It's very unlikely this shitwagon was entirely lead by town.
Yoyo is apparently a pr but isn't dead???
ghug is dead
FA made a set of very bad excuses for the Bunny wagon that was at best a tunnel and at worst a mafia push. Extremely suspicious.

Also, I see a whole bunch of accusations pointed at me.
Yesterday, I did indeed try to tie, as the other option was allowing Bunny to be killed.
Tying > killing someone who is 99% town and who the maf probably bet on the death of
if you don't want me to tie, find a decent wagon instead.

Yes, I did ask yoyo if they were going to unclaim. My goal there was to avoid unecessary cc nonsense - if yoyo was going to unclaim it was better that they did it before someone cc'ed.
Yes, I asked yoyo a relevant question after suggesting we didn't talk during the night. However, it was also after everyone else was trying to talk during the night.

I also seem to be the only one who took a serious look at Bunny's wagon and said "This wagon is shitty."

I would say "fa must die today" but that would probably look like Gambler.
##vote FlaviusAetius
##end

vote made at 1:41 pm

So we have to hold Yoyo alive unless there’s a cc, in which case we choose one to kill.

It’s either Flav and Chaqa

Or Will.


Barring the meta of killing a sub, assume good faith that Kak/Will really is town, then Flavius is my choice today.

##Vote Flavius

vote made at 9:04 pm

Ok ##vote Flav

##End

vote made at 9:16 pm

##end

vote made at 9:58 pm

Eh why not

##Vote Flavius
##End

vote made at 11:26 pm

----------------------

that's how we got to 4 endvotes on flav. Now, how did it go away?

----------------------

the endvote was mostly to emphasize that I was serious. I don't actually want to hammer this.
##unend

vote made at 1:40 am

Suddenly a different game now with Kak involved.

Doesn't change the complexion of the Will votes, but we really don't have the time and space to offer Kak to establish themselves as town or not.

We need to see where this day leads us and I am willing to ##UNEND to use it to get further information.

vote made at 2:30 am

##Unend I suppose

vote made at 4:30 am (just after he said he was going to bed)

D3 is a day of action how are we STILL on pressure votes? You need to actually make a case against someone you are coasting.

Because I didn’t scum read willkak at all? He had unfulfilled obligations (an unexplained theory, low posting despite claiming to want to be town lead), and I wanted to push him to fill those.

As for a case: I’m on mobile on a car ride rn, and will probably be out for a couple hours. My plan for this evening is an ISO (if I’m using that term right?) of either: damo, dip, or chaqa. Flavius’s defense is… decent enough for me. Also my incredibly arbitrary and biased decision maker likes his PVZ references. Never thought flav was one to use emoticons though.

What's decent about Flav's defence? All he's done is call us zombies and tunnel on Dip.

##unend. Sigh.

vote made at 10:23 am

=======================

time shown to me is UTC, so it's 2 hours earlier than my CEST, phase shift is at 24 CEST (or 12 ... a.m. I think? I'm bad at converting midnight to a 12 hour scale), or 22 UTC/10 pm

votes were made

d&w - flav + end well before phase shift at 1:41 pm UTC

Brian - flav at 9:04 pm UTC (56 minutes before phase shift)

damo - flav + end at 9:16 pm UTC (44 minutes before phase shift)

Brian - end at 9:58 pm UTC (2 minutes before phase shift)

chaqa - flav + end at 11:26 pm UTC (or 1 hour 26 minutes after phase shift)

_____

d&w stating endvote was for emphasis afterwards is plausible. Not quite the "I would say "fa must die today" but that would probably look like Gambler.", this doesn't fit too well, but it isn't saying too much, I think

damo endvoting flav here could still be a mafploy, especially since he went to sleep afterward, but I guess it looks fine enough. It could be a subtle push, or signal, to get flav during the night with the timing. Still, I think town damo could make such a vote, even when it's kinda bad going to sleep endvoting with phase shift so near. At this time, Flav wasn't in too much danger of getting endvoted. Inconclusive.

chaqa blatantly voting like this is right up his alley. Either as town or as mafia. At this point, he could think of trying to get a bus in (if flav is partnered with him), or get a long night as mafia. As town, he could also just think 'eff it' and try to get more info, happened in other games too. A toss up, I guess. Although, maf chaqa would probably look more careful how he looks in this. On the first view, this is just screaming mafia, right? So if chaqa isn't going for a "too maff to be maff" look, that slightly tends more to town.

Brian is the only one who doesn't instantly endvote. Very interesting, and alarm bell ringing. Especially his endvote, right just two minutes before phase shift, is looking so sus. Not on the first view, of course. But it brings it up to a kinda dangerous level, without being outwardly screaming mafia. Yeah, I really don't like how Brian progressed on this one here. Most likely maf out of the four purely on how the votes went.

========

looking at the unvotes:

d&w is the first one to do so, at 1:40 am UTC. Declaring he wanted to flip flav, but not hammer him. As I said, plausible. Looks pretty ok to me

Brian coming in 50 minutes later with the unend, declaring that he now is willing to unend to see where the day leads. Oh boy, looking at it again, I really don't like this progression. It screams like "Ok, ok, lets not do Flav, it was just a prank", trying to disassociate from it.

Chaqa is the third, after some posts not unending, then voting unend while going to bed. Honestly, that feels townish, so probably Chaqa is just not likeing the gamestate and tried to get to a point of new information for endvoting flav. Not locktown, but that gives him townpoints.

at last, well in the morning, damo unends too, seemingly after he woke up and read the whole thing. That sigh there felt genuine. Hmm. Maybe I'm wrong about damo.

So, with that, I'll change to ##vote HamiltonBrian

I implore you to have a look at that and consider voting him too.

[Kakarroto]

Why wouldn’t there be a NK?

It's an interesting question. It's assuming that the Gambler bet was on the daykill. If Bunny was the bet, and bunny didn't die, then there would be no night kill.

Is Flav speaking from a place of knowledge here? They KNEW bunny was the bet?

Wait, can the mafia lose their NK based on the gambler?

I should probably read what the roles do at some point...

our trusted and highly appreciated kouncil member, everyone

[Chaqa]

It's an interesting question. It's assuming that the Gambler bet was on the daykill. If Bunny was the bet, and bunny didn't die, then there would be no night kill.

Is Flav speaking from a place of knowledge here? They KNEW bunny was the bet?

Wait, can the mafia lose their NK based on the gambler?

I should probably read what the roles do at some point...

our trusted and highly appreciated kouncil member, everyone

[damo666]

Why wouldn’t there be a NK?

It's an interesting question. It's assuming that the Gambler bet was on the daykill. If Bunny was the bet, and bunny didn't die, then there would be no night kill.

Is Flav speaking from a place of knowledge here? They KNEW bunny was the bet?

Wait, can the mafia lose their NK based on the gambler?

I should probably read what the roles do at some point...

riiiiight

[Kakarroto]

I should have a look at D2 again, although I think it is a bit influenced with the claim, so don't know how much we will really get out of it.

I am however hungry and haven't had the chance to get groceries, so I'll be out a bit. If anyone wants to do some stuff, feel free to have a look at D2, or look at the endvote incident and add your thoughts to it. Have I overlooked something? Did I make a mistake in my conclusions? Am I just totally insane? Your thoughts matter, so please share them.

[damo666]

It's an interesting question. It's assuming that the Gambler bet was on the daykill. If Bunny was the bet, and bunny didn't die, then there would be no night kill.

Is Flav speaking from a place of knowledge here? They KNEW bunny was the bet?

Wait, can the mafia lose their NK based on the gambler?

I should probably read what the roles do at some point...

our trusted and highly appreciated kouncil member, everyone

lol

[Chaqa]

The Kouncil's paternity leave is very generous. I haven't fully onboarded back into setup review yet.