WebMafia Olympics: Bonus Qualification Round

[Hamilton Brian]

I suspect both scum were inactive at EOD smiling to themselves.

agreed; or Flav

I was just getting ready to say that this is shaping up to be a Flavius vs Bunny D2. However Bunny is voting ghug as of last bot read.

[Hamilton Brian]

Alright here is my thought-through read list, in order:

---town---
DipandWar
kotp
BunnyGo ~ Will
HB
---null line---
FA (note: has not contributed)
ghug = damo = yoyoyozo (note: low-quality contributions)
Chaqa (note: wants to sheep)
---"I would be happy to wagon without external pressure" line---
Jamiet
Haze with a Z
---scum---

Dip really leans hard into the belief that Haze is mafia.
I understand getting the worm in the brain, even when it's wrong.

He was wrong about Jamie too.

Suggesting Dip is soft town or conniving scum?

[Hamilton Brian]

When I ask Yoyoyozo a question, Dip&War answers it.

When I ask Dip&War a question, Yoyoyozo answers it.

Interesting.

This is interesting

But not because I think it pairs them (which is what I assume jamie--rip old chum--was implying)

Then what do you find interesting about it?

[Hamilton Brian]

I’d be keen on wagons of King, Flavius, ghug, chaqa, and will today.

This is going to seem like a small thing, but this post by itself is enough for me to town read Hamilton. I've been pretty disengaged from the game due to IRL stuff (having a newborn is way more time consuming than expected lol) and he's the first person to mention me in a bit. I think mafia would be okay letting me fester and be suspicious, whereas Hamilton views me as a good wagon.

Good point. ##VOTE Chaqa

Why is it a good point and reason to vote Chaqa?

I'd like to did deeper into that mafia psychology that would be ok with an invisible Chaqa linger around.

[Hamilton Brian]

My reads haven't evolved terribly. Ham is town. Dip/Flav feel like town. I 100% would have killed Flav last night to stop the bolding, so I'm town unless he's my teammate. My heart is telling me that damo is town, so I'd like to give him another day despite his questionable voting. Yoyo should probably be avoided for bet reasons. Anyone else is fair game.

Excluding those you listed above, minus Flavius, do you have a hierarchy of desired kill from most wanted to least wanted?

[Hamilton Brian]

I suspect both scum were inactive at EOD smiling to themselves.

There is always a potential for a flash wagon X to doubt a scum would risk it, there was def a scum D1 at EoD just INCASE anything went wrong. Whether they made their presence known or not is IDK

Is X your go to for an unnamed player?

[Hamilton Brian]

X to doubt mafia would be so bold to join in on same wagon D1, but my prediction is that there is a mafia on your wagon RN

When this post was made the voters on the Haze wagon were: Chaqa, JustWill, Dip, and Bunny. So of those 4 Flav, which do you think is the culprit?

DEFINETLY Bunny, maybe Chaqa, and for Will? I just dont see it. As for Dip...NAI I havent looked at him too closely yet that will now change as I do my catchup

Why exclude Will?

[Hamilton Brian]

People that didn't sniff EOD include Haze (RIP), ghug, Will, Dip, Chaqa, and King.

King, I can understand with the time differenced; are they in Australia?

Is there scum in one of ghug, will, dip, chaqa? Content to put a vote anywhere seeing as town will generally miskill on D1?

I could see a mafia being in ghug OR Chaqa I have determined probably not BOTH

It'd be kind of awesome if it were; parent of a newborn and someone stuck in Southeast Asia, barely able to coordinate their communication during nights. You'd think it'd be a solid win for town but we'd still manage to screw it up.

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

I dont think ill ever rescind my townread of dip

Feeling a lot like that vest/gun game we were in

You mean the one in which I shot a maf and then claimed the kill WITHOUT knowing someone else had already claimed it? Good times.

[Hamilton Brian]

Maybe it wasn't Bunny you might have been saving? Damo-yoyo? Prior to all the votes moving it was yoyo with 4 votes in the lead. Or Bunny protecting yoyo?

That's assuming yoyo is the catalyst and is mafia.

Damo-yoyo is probably the most likely yoyo pairing.
The Bunny wagon still seems a bit questionable and potentially maf-driven.

Damo and yoyo never voted for Bunny so thats just a big fat contradiction right there

I am replying to this because it's something I want to come back to but don't have the time presently.

[Hamilton Brian]

This is VERY rich coming out of you. Haze was NOT a lurker. YOU were the D1 lurker. Haze's wagon didnt make sense from the jump you are part of the reason it survived.

This is a pretty spicy post. Noting this interaction between Flavius and yoyo for later.

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

Good morning. RIP jamie. Kill impetus seems lacking. Was Jamie into someone or is scum trying to force a miskill? Either is possible, idt we rely on Jamie’s reads because of this.

Second order of business:
way too many people were posting scumreads of yoyo during the night. A maf bet on either votes on yoyo or on yoyo being maf is extremely likely and therefore voting yoyo is a bad idea
(I realize this is probably going to make it look like me and yoyo are paired especially after jamie implied that suspicion. I don't care.)

Third order of business:
Can someone please explain the Bunny wagon from yesterday to me?

Fourth order of business:
I recommend pairs of people "swap" their votes by voting for each other's votes at EoD, to make bets on people's votes fail.

Posting, first order done.
Second: why is voting yoyo a bad idea? You seem to make it smth abt mech rather than a proper townread. If yoyo is maf, a wagon is in order, whether votes count or not. We’re just forced into a ‘win by 3’ situation.
Third: not sure myself, seems smth abt inconsistency with voting reasons?? And a comment ghug made iirc. I don’t understand the latter thing.
Fourth: sure?

kotp acts with skepticism of my mech that can only be town. Hard townread on this.

[Hamilton Brian]

That's a bit silly coming out of someone who I KNOW knows mafia better than that. I dont doubt you were AFK at EoD for real, but I just wonder would you have changed the day's outcome?

If this is Flavius' scum game then it's a really good show so far.

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

First order of business:
My analysis of mech (which I have not yet shared) suggests postcount bets are likely, along with vote bets
its also likely that, if the Gambler succeeded, they chose to set a limit of 0 posts (except 1 vote post)
lets see if the gambler postcapped anyone
EVERYONE PLEASE POST AT LEAST ONCE
this seems like a good step to take and has no real disadvantage
IF YOU HAVE BEEN 0-POSTCAPPED DO NOT POST AND SAVE YOUR VOTE

Second order of business:
way too many people were posting scumreads of yoyo during the night. A maf bet on either votes on yoyo or on yoyo being maf is extremely likely and therefore voting yoyo is a bad idea
(I realize this is probably going to make it look like me and yoyo are paired especially after jamie implied that suspicion. I don't care.)

Third order of business:
Can someone please explain the Bunny wagon from yesterday to me?

Fourth order of business:
I recommend pairs of people "swap" their votes by voting for each other's votes at EoD, to make bets on people's votes fail.

wait...the bet is on whom someone is voting for?! Not whom the town eliminates?

1) Setting a 0 postcap is silly; it townclears someone.

2) We may all want to get votes out in case we are postcapped and can't vote (##CALL GM: if you're surprised postcapped and haven't voted what happens?)
##vote ghug

3) Bunny draws flak when he talks day 1 as town

If you get muted before making a valid vote, you must make one last post that only contains a valid vote.

(I was already aware of this; it was one of the clarification questions I asked sweet (via discord) about the setup before the game)
im also going to ##UNVOTE

[Hamilton Brian]

That Jamie was town, along with Haze.


I think there’s enough of a hangover with Dip and maybe yoyo that the scum team think they could initiate a miskill of either of them.

So maybe remove them from the pool for the time being.

OR Dip or Yoyo are MAFIA and they wanted us to think exactly this. I say Jamie was suspecting them and Bunny, surely there's at least one mafia in that bunch.

Well those are pretty decent odds; we could all create trios and suggest a mafioso in each of them. What is our ratio right now? Don't want to wreck my train of though by bot-looking at this moment.

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

I don’t understand people saying effectively “don’t vote yoyo bc bets will come true”. It invalidates that vote if guessed correctly, so what? At MAX it’s 2 votes gone, and it’ll all but confirm yoyo as mafia in my eyes at least (gambler protecting a friend or themselves). The thing I don’t get is that THIS ISNT A TOWNREAD (or if it is, it isn’t phrased as such); it’s because of a bet possibly coming true, one that isn’t even a scary one (invalidating a vote isn’t scary compared to some other bets)?? I’m not saying to vote yoyo, I’m unsure of that myself (I prefer rn to ##vote chaqa ), but I don’t get the reasoning for NOT voting yoyo. Please explain.

I'm mostly referring to a bet on yoyo flipping, actually.

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

I was not online at EoD. Due to RL circumstances, I was not able to post before Eod. I was not aware of this before EoD and I was planning to return.
If anyone saw me on WebDip between the time that I made my last d1 post and EoD, speak up.
I was not involved in some grand conspiracy to eliminate Haze. I openly scumread Haze and gave my reasons for doing so. Wagoning a scummy player is not a valid reason to scumread me. I consider this topic closed.

On the other hand, I find it very interesting that multiple people suddenly pivoted to Haze at EoD.

What would you have done at EoD ? Yoyo was a viable wagon then, would you have been arguing for Haze ? Me? or flipping to Yoyo?
WHY did you think Haze was so scummy? I think you said on PAGE 12, that Haze wasn't really contributing much.

That's a bit silly coming out of someone who I KNOW knows mafia better than that. I dont doubt you were AFK at EoD for real, but I just wonder would you have changed the day's outcome?

I would have contributed, asked questions, and developed my reads. Whether I would have stayed on Haze would have depended on what I saw at EoD.

[Hamilton Brian]

Just realized I've asked duplicate questions; hazard of working off the phone last night then laptop this morning without refreshing.

And we are 8:2 town:mafia.

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

That Jamie was town, along with Haze.


I think there’s enough of a hangover with Dip and maybe yoyo that the scum team think they could initiate a miskill of either of them.

So maybe remove them from the pool for the time being.

OR Dip or Yoyo are MAFIA and they wanted us to think exactly this. I say Jamie was suspecting them and Bunny, surely there's at least one mafia in that bunch.

This line of reasoning is questionable at best. There are 9 people who don't know why the maf killed Jamie and the only 2 who do will probably be lying about it.

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

That Jamie was town, along with Haze.


I think there’s enough of a hangover with Dip and maybe yoyo that the scum team think they could initiate a miskill of either of them.

So maybe remove them from the pool for the time being.

OR Dip or Yoyo are MAFIA and they wanted us to think exactly this. I say Jamie was suspecting them and Bunny, surely there's at least one mafia in that bunch.

Every once in a while people get really hung up on analyzing the N1 kill and it baffles me. We should know better than to try by now.

Why does nobody ever sleep me when I die?

+1
this is good
we need more ghugs in this town today