WebMafia Olympics: Bonus Qualification Round

[FlaviusAetius]

You have any clues Damo?

Not really. Looks like a PR stab kill to me.

sus
why would maf possibly think jamie was a pr
simply put this is tmi
##vote damo

TRUE

[ghug]

I don’t understand people saying effectively “don’t vote yoyo bc bets will come true”. It invalidates that vote if guessed correctly, so what? At MAX it’s 2 votes gone, and it’ll all but confirm yoyo as mafia in my eyes at least (gambler protecting a friend or themselves). The thing I don’t get is that THIS ISNT A TOWNREAD (or if it is, it isn’t phrased as such); it’s because of a bet possibly coming true, one that isn’t even a scary one (invalidating a vote isn’t scary compared to some other bets)?? I’m not saying to vote yoyo, I’m unsure of that myself (I prefer rn to ##vote chaqa ), but I don’t get the reasoning for NOT voting yoyo. Please explain.

1. I don't see how it would confirm Yoyo as scum. Can you explain that logic?
2. No nightkill is really good for us. One of two scum being immune is not good for us.
3. I don't think he's the best wagon anyway and there's an added benefit in having a more dynamic day rather than running up yesterday's second place.

1.by my logic, scum would probably only use vote predicts as a form of protection. Otherwise, they’d like votes on someone else (miskill potential). So if votes are tampered with (protection), it’s highly likely the protected is scum.
2.i misinterpreted and thought of the wrong bet (I was thinking the guess person’s vote bet, you (and I assume dip) were referring to the feuds DK bet. Alright, sure, I can get behind that (if yoyo does end up doing smth that cements them as scum though I think we can disregard the dk bet and just take out half the scum team).
3. Alright, yeah. This sounds good to me.

Is your answer to 1 rendered moot by your answer to 2 or am I missing something?

[ghug]

People that didn't sniff EOD include Haze (RIP), ghug, Will, Dip, Chaqa, and King.

King, I can understand with the time differenced; are they in Australia?

Is there scum in one of ghug, will, dip, chaqa? Content to put a vote anywhere seeing as town will generally miskill on D1?

I could see a mafia being in ghug OR Chaqa I have determined probably not BOTH

Definitely both because you have 100% confidence Bunny is scum?

[ghug]

He engaged in voting shenanigans at EoD1 in the last mini game, and was town.

That was calculated and explicable.

Every game I've played with damo so far he's always done something CRAZY and turned up town. Maybe he'll turn up scum this time around but no way hosay am I voting damo for his ONE crazy thing.

To be clear, is not that he did something crazy and confusing, it's that usually I buyv that he believes his justifications for the craziness. His mind works strangely but he usually gives me enough to follow his thought processes.

When he's scum, he'll often make very bold scum-motivated moves in the moment and then try to invent justification for them later.

The switch off Yoyo feels like the latter, but I'm also feeling the former in everything else he's saying.

[ghug]

That Jamie was town, along with Haze.


I think there’s enough of a hangover with Dip and maybe yoyo that the scum team think they could initiate a miskill of either of them.

So maybe remove them from the pool for the time being.

OR Dip or Yoyo are MAFIA and they wanted us to think exactly this. I say Jamie was suspecting them and Bunny, surely there's at least one mafia in that bunch.

Every once in a while people get really hung up on analyzing the N1 kill and it baffles me. We should know better than to try by now.

Why does nobody ever sleep me when I die?

[ghug]

Not really. Looks like a PR stab kill to me.

sus
why would maf possibly think jamie was a pr
simply put this is tmi
##vote damo

TRUE

picardfacepalm.jpg

[kingofthepirates]

Is your answer to 1 rendered moot by your answer to 2 or am I missing something?

In this case yes. However answer 1 still stands as my general philosophy/view on vote betting.

[ghug]

Is your answer to 1 rendered moot by your answer to 2 or am I missing something?

In this case yes. However answer 1 still stands as my general philosophy/view on vote betting.

I'd like to argue with you but I think it's probably better not to.

[damo666]

First order of business:
My analysis of mech (which I have not yet shared) suggests postcount bets are likely, along with vote bets
its also likely that, if the Gambler succeeded, they chose to set a limit of 0 posts (except 1 vote post)
lets see if the gambler postcapped anyone
EVERYONE PLEASE POST AT LEAST ONCE
this seems like a good step to take and has no real disadvantage
IF YOU HAVE BEEN 0-POSTCAPPED DO NOT POST AND SAVE YOUR VOTE

Second order of business:
way too many people were posting scumreads of yoyo during the night. A maf bet on either votes on yoyo or on yoyo being maf is extremely likely and therefore voting yoyo is a bad idea
(I realize this is probably going to make it look like me and yoyo are paired especially after jamie implied that suspicion. I don't care.)

Third order of business:
Can someone please explain the Bunny wagon from yesterday to me?

Fourth order of business:
I recommend pairs of people "swap" their votes by voting for each other's votes at EoD, to make bets on people's votes fail.

Dip is very likely town for #1. They won't do a zero count bet, it immediately creates a town clear. Nuch more likely to pick mid-high range, unlikely to create a townclear and failure not that impactful.

#2 A bet on yoyo kill is reasonably likely. So only vote yoyo if very convinced he is scum I guess. As a general principle I suggest we avoid night talk or be very careful.

#3 ? I townread Bunny

#4 I don't see how that works with EOD scrambles

[damo666]

I dont think ill ever rescind my townread of dip

Feeling a lot like that vest/gun game we were in

##unvote

[damo666]

You have any clues Damo?

Not really. Looks like a PR stab kill to me.

So you think its basically an arbitrary kill. gotcha. Disagree, I think there was definitely motivation beyond PR stabbing. Jmaie had reads and frustrations about several players and was pushing them pretty hard I think. I don't see a world where those didn't come into play when mafia decides a NK.

It's all WIFOM though innit?

[damo666]

I suspect both scum were inactive at EOD smiling to themselves.

agreed; or Flav

Yep

[damo666]

I don’t understand people saying effectively “don’t vote yoyo bc bets will come true”. It invalidates that vote if guessed correctly, so what? At MAX it’s 2 votes gone, and it’ll all but confirm yoyo as mafia in my eyes at least (gambler protecting a friend or themselves). The thing I don’t get is that THIS ISNT A TOWNREAD (or if it is, it isn’t phrased as such); it’s because of a bet possibly coming true, one that isn’t even a scary one (invalidating a vote isn’t scary compared to some other bets)?? I’m not saying to vote yoyo, I’m unsure of that myself (I prefer rn to ##vote chaqa ), but I don’t get the reasoning for NOT voting yoyo. Please explain.

1. I don't see how it would confirm Yoyo as scum. Can you explain that logic?
2. No nightkill is really good for us. One of two scum being immune is not good for us.
3. I don't think he's the best wagon anyway and there's an added benefit in having a more dynamic day rather than running up yesterday's second place.

Agree with this. I think yoyo should be off the agenda for today.

[damo666]

Damo, I do appreciate the pointed response to my questions.

Am I incorrect when I say the whole thing looks like a Damo-Bunny pair with Damo saving Bunny, and Bunny securing the kill vote.

It's simplistic, but it's something.

No. Why would I move off Yoyo to Haze and put Bunny in danger?

You've had this read on Bunny for a while now can I get an explanation? Like a real one? You have yet to explain it

BTW before I forget ##vote Bunny

My response to Brian was from the premise Bunny and I were scumpair.

[damo666]

Maybe it wasn't Bunny you might have been saving? Damo-yoyo? Prior to all the votes moving it was yoyo with 4 votes in the lead. Or Bunny protecting yoyo?

That's assuming yoyo is the catalyst and is mafia.

I guess that's more possible but then why vote yoyo initially when I did? If I were bussing I'd have seen it through.

You were on at EoD, people are almost expected to change their votes if they arent fiercly advocating for them. You made it clear you werent fiercly advocating for ANYONE. Not a good excuse.

And here I was responding given the premise I am scumpair with yoyo.

[damo666]

Maybe it wasn't Bunny you might have been saving? Damo-yoyo? Prior to all the votes moving it was yoyo with 4 votes in the lead. Or Bunny protecting yoyo?

That's assuming yoyo is the catalyst and is mafia.

Damo-yoyo is probably the most likely yoyo pairing.
The Bunny wagon still seems a bit questionable and potentially maf-driven.

Damo and yoyo never voted for Bunny so thats just a big fat contradiction right there

Good spot. @Dip can you explain this sloppy thinking?

[kingofthepirates]

Not really. Looks like a PR stab kill to me.

So you think its basically an arbitrary kill. gotcha. Disagree, I think there was definitely motivation beyond PR stabbing. Jmaie had reads and frustrations about several players and was pushing them pretty hard I think. I don't see a world where those didn't come into play when mafia decides a NK.

It's all WIFOM though innit?

yeah, that's kinda the issue. out the window ig *shrug*.

[Hamilton Brian]

Probably meant as a kill to finger Damo and bunny too.

Well if you exclude me, Bunny, Dip and yoyo looking at Haze voters that leaves Will.

Could Will be scum?

##vote Just

I find it strange I’d kill Jamie here

Why would it be strange Will?

[Hamilton Brian]

IF Bunny turns up mafia I suspect another mafia went onto Yoyo to try to save Bunny

This whole sequence suggests to me that Flav is unlikely to be scum with Bunny or yoyo, at the very least.

Reading it again here it suggests he knows Yoyo is town though...I can see the follow up if/when Yoyo flips that he tries to use that to push my wagon.

A few moving parts here. Flavius is proposing that IF Bunny=scum 1 then scum 2>yoyo to save.

Next step is scum!Bunny =/= scum!Flavius OR scum!yoyo =/= scum!Flavius

Yeah, so much of this rests on Flavius' assumption yoyo is town.

[Hamilton Brian]

I’d speed flav

Because you agreed with damo's assessment or because you scumread him for something else?

He reminds me of his last scum game.

The vibe I was getting was "look how helpful I'm being...oh no...you screwed it up...well, did you notice how I was helping? I told you they were town..." while knowing all the wagons were town.

Which elements are synonymous with Flavius' previous scum game? Was I in that one? I'll check in a moment but I really want this from you.