WebMafia Olympics: Bonus Qualification Round

[ghug]

First order of business:
My analysis of mech (which I have not yet shared) suggests postcount bets are likely, along with vote bets
its also likely that, if the Gambler succeeded, they chose to set a limit of 0 posts (except 1 vote post)
lets see if the gambler postcapped anyone
EVERYONE PLEASE POST AT LEAST ONCE
this seems like a good step to take and has no real disadvantage
IF YOU HAVE BEEN 0-POSTCAPPED DO NOT POST AND SAVE YOUR VOTE

Second order of business:
way too many people were posting scumreads of yoyo during the night. A maf bet on either votes on yoyo or on yoyo being maf is extremely likely and therefore voting yoyo is a bad idea
(I realize this is probably going to make it look like me and yoyo are paired especially after jamie implied that suspicion. I don't care.)

Third order of business:
Can someone please explain the Bunny wagon from yesterday to me?

Fourth order of business:
I recommend pairs of people "swap" their votes by voting for each other's votes at EoD, to make bets on people's votes fail.

Good shit here.

[ghug]

I’d be keen on wagons of King, Flavius, ghug, chaqa, and will today.

This is going to seem like a small thing, but this post by itself is enough for me to town read Hamilton. I've been pretty disengaged from the game due to IRL stuff (having a newborn is way more time consuming than expected lol) and he's the first person to mention me in a bit. I think mafia would be okay letting me fester and be suspicious, whereas Hamilton views me as a good wagon.

Good point. ##VOTE Chaqa

[ghug]

First order of business:
My analysis of mech (which I have not yet shared) suggests postcount bets are likely, along with vote bets
its also likely that, if the Gambler succeeded, they chose to set a limit of 0 posts (except 1 vote post)
lets see if the gambler postcapped anyone
EVERYONE PLEASE POST AT LEAST ONCE
this seems like a good step to take and has no real disadvantage
IF YOU HAVE BEEN 0-POSTCAPPED DO NOT POST AND SAVE YOUR VOTE

Second order of business:
way too many people were posting scumreads of yoyo during the night. A maf bet on either votes on yoyo or on yoyo being maf is extremely likely and therefore voting yoyo is a bad idea
(I realize this is probably going to make it look like me and yoyo are paired especially after jamie implied that suspicion. I don't care.)

Third order of business:
Can someone please explain the Bunny wagon from yesterday to me?

Fourth order of business:
I recommend pairs of people "swap" their votes by voting for each other's votes at EoD, to make bets on people's votes fail.

Good shit here.

Except for the last one. That will never work even though it's a good idea on paper.

[ghug]

My reads haven't evolved terribly. Ham is town. Dip/Flav feel like town. I 100% would have killed Flav last night to stop the bolding, so I'm town unless he's my teammate. My heart is telling me that damo is town, so I'd like to give him another day despite his questionable voting. Yoyo should probably be avoided for bet reasons. Anyone else is fair game.

[kingofthepirates]

I don’t understand people saying effectively “don’t vote yoyo bc bets will come true”. It invalidates that vote if guessed correctly, so what? At MAX it’s 2 votes gone, and it’ll all but confirm yoyo as mafia in my eyes at least (gambler protecting a friend or themselves). The thing I don’t get is that THIS ISNT A TOWNREAD (or if it is, it isn’t phrased as such); it’s because of a bet possibly coming true, one that isn’t even a scary one (invalidating a vote isn’t scary compared to some other bets)?? I’m not saying to vote yoyo, I’m unsure of that myself (I prefer rn to ##vote chaqa ), but I don’t get the reasoning for NOT voting yoyo. Please explain.

[ghug]

I don’t understand people saying effectively “don’t vote yoyo bc bets will come true”. It invalidates that vote if guessed correctly, so what? At MAX it’s 2 votes gone, and it’ll all but confirm yoyo as mafia in my eyes at least (gambler protecting a friend or themselves). The thing I don’t get is that THIS ISNT A TOWNREAD (or if it is, it isn’t phrased as such); it’s because of a bet possibly coming true, one that isn’t even a scary one (invalidating a vote isn’t scary compared to some other bets)?? I’m not saying to vote yoyo, I’m unsure of that myself (I prefer rn to ##vote chaqa ), but I don’t get the reasoning for NOT voting yoyo. Please explain.

1. I don't see how it would confirm Yoyo as scum. Can you explain that logic?
2. No nightkill is really good for us. One of two scum being immune is not good for us.
3. I don't think he's the best wagon anyway and there's an added benefit in having a more dynamic day rather than running up yesterday's second place.

[FlaviusAetius]

OK I RETURN, and unless something drastic as changed when I FINISH catching up I will make my case against Bunny. TO BE CLEAR, I already have , I'll just summarize everything and add anything new

[FlaviusAetius]

I suspect both scum were inactive at EOD smiling to themselves.

There is always a potential for a flash wagon X to doubt a scum would risk it, there was def a scum D1 at EoD just INCASE anything went wrong. Whether they made their presence known or not is IDK

[kingofthepirates]

I don’t understand people saying effectively “don’t vote yoyo bc bets will come true”. It invalidates that vote if guessed correctly, so what? At MAX it’s 2 votes gone, and it’ll all but confirm yoyo as mafia in my eyes at least (gambler protecting a friend or themselves). The thing I don’t get is that THIS ISNT A TOWNREAD (or if it is, it isn’t phrased as such); it’s because of a bet possibly coming true, one that isn’t even a scary one (invalidating a vote isn’t scary compared to some other bets)?? I’m not saying to vote yoyo, I’m unsure of that myself (I prefer rn to ##vote chaqa ), but I don’t get the reasoning for NOT voting yoyo. Please explain.

1. I don't see how it would confirm Yoyo as scum. Can you explain that logic?
2. No nightkill is really good for us. One of two scum being immune is not good for us.
3. I don't think he's the best wagon anyway and there's an added benefit in having a more dynamic day rather than running up yesterday's second place.

1.by my logic, scum would probably only use vote predicts as a form of protection. Otherwise, they’d like votes on someone else (miskill potential). So if votes are tampered with (protection), it’s highly likely the protected is scum.
2.i misinterpreted and thought of the wrong bet (I was thinking the guess person’s vote bet, you (and I assume dip) were referring to the feuds DK bet. Alright, sure, I can get behind that (if yoyo does end up doing smth that cements them as scum though I think we can disregard the dk bet and just take out half the scum team).
3. Alright, yeah. This sounds good to me.

[FlaviusAetius]

Yeah and I’m thinking you are scum wanting to stick with what your partner dip started while you were gone while spreading out the blame so you don’t get caught when I flip town.

X to doubt mafia would be so bold to join in on same wagon D1, but my prediction is that there is a mafia on your wagon RN

When this post was made the voters on the Haze wagon were: Chaqa, JustWill, Dip, and Bunny. So of those 4 Flav, which do you think is the culprit?

DEFINETLY Bunny, maybe Chaqa, and for Will? I just dont see it. As for Dip...NAI I havent looked at him too closely yet that will now change as I do my catchup

[FlaviusAetius]

People that didn't sniff EOD include Haze (RIP), ghug, Will, Dip, Chaqa, and King.

King, I can understand with the time differenced; are they in Australia?

Is there scum in one of ghug, will, dip, chaqa? Content to put a vote anywhere seeing as town will generally miskill on D1?

I could see a mafia being in ghug OR Chaqa I have determined probably not BOTH

[FlaviusAetius]

Damo, I do appreciate the pointed response to my questions.

Am I incorrect when I say the whole thing looks like a Damo-Bunny pair with Damo saving Bunny, and Bunny securing the kill vote.

It's simplistic, but it's something.

No. Why would I move off Yoyo to Haze and put Bunny in danger?

You've had this read on Bunny for a while now can I get an explanation? Like a real one? You have yet to explain it

BTW before I forget ##vote Bunny

[FlaviusAetius]

I'm getting town vibes from damo but when he does shit like this he's often scum.

He engaged in voting shenanigans at EoD1 in the last mini game, and was town.

That was calculated and explicable.

Every game I've played with damo so far he's always done something CRAZY and turned up town. Maybe he'll turn up scum this time around but no way hosay am I voting damo for his ONE crazy thing.

[FlaviusAetius]

No. Why would I move off Yoyo to Haze and put Bunny in danger?

Maybe it wasn't Bunny you might have been saving? Damo-yoyo? Prior to all the votes moving it was yoyo with 4 votes in the lead. Or Bunny protecting yoyo?

That's assuming yoyo is the catalyst and is mafia.

I guess that's more possible but then why vote yoyo initially when I did? If I were bussing I'd have seen it through.

You were on at EoD, people are almost expected to change their votes if they arent fiercly advocating for them. You made it clear you werent fiercly advocating for ANYONE. Not a good excuse.

[FlaviusAetius]

Okay I couldn’t have been the only one who picked up on that.

Can I point out that Dip&War was alleging that I was trying hard to shift attention away from the wagon on HAZE.

HAZE who has flipped TOWN.

Dip&War was, when the above was posted, obsessed with the idea that he had solved the game because it was 100% certain that Haze and Jamie were Mafia team-mates.

We now KNOW that was FALSE.

Yes?
You and Haze were acting scummy. Haze had been writing bad posts and you seemed eager to pivot away from haze. I scumread you because you were scummy.

Also, don't think you're off the hook because Haze flipped town. I don't know what exactly happened between you and will, but it doesn't look good for either of you.

I wonder if Jamie ever got to respond to this

[FlaviusAetius]

No. Why would I move off Yoyo to Haze and put Bunny in danger?

Maybe it wasn't Bunny you might have been saving? Damo-yoyo? Prior to all the votes moving it was yoyo with 4 votes in the lead. Or Bunny protecting yoyo?

That's assuming yoyo is the catalyst and is mafia.

Damo-yoyo is probably the most likely yoyo pairing.
The Bunny wagon still seems a bit questionable and potentially maf-driven.

Damo and yoyo never voted for Bunny so thats just a big fat contradiction right there

[FlaviusAetius]

Can I point out that Dip&War was alleging that I was trying hard to shift attention away from the wagon on HAZE.

HAZE who has flipped TOWN.

Dip&War was, when the above was posted, obsessed with the idea that he had solved the game because it was 100% certain that Haze and Jamie were Mafia team-mates.

We now KNOW that was FALSE.

Yes?
You and Haze were acting scummy. Haze had been writing bad posts and you seemed eager to pivot away from haze. I scumread you because you were scummy.

Also, don't think you're off the hook because Haze flipped town. I don't know what exactly happened between you and will, but it doesn't look good for either of you.

My point isn’t that you switched off Haze. The fact that he flipped town means nothing unless you knew he was town, which would only be the case if your were mafia.

My point is that a few players have a tendency to go after players who can’t defend themselves. This creates bandwagons with other active players and makes it way more likely that miskills happens. Looking back, Haze wasn’t particularly scummy but I know I’m not scum so it was a decent call on my end. I’m going to sound hypocritical but I tend to think it’s a good idea to kill lurkers, this was just very circumstantial inactivity (not really lurking because I didn’t read the thread) on my end.

This is VERY rich coming out of you. Haze was NOT a lurker. YOU were the D1 lurker. Haze's wagon didnt make sense from the jump you are part of the reason it survived.

[FlaviusAetius]

I was not online at EoD. Due to RL circumstances, I was not able to post before Eod. I was not aware of this before EoD and I was planning to return.
If anyone saw me on WebDip between the time that I made my last d1 post and EoD, speak up.
I was not involved in some grand conspiracy to eliminate Haze. I openly scumread Haze and gave my reasons for doing so. Wagoning a scummy player is not a valid reason to scumread me. I consider this topic closed.

On the other hand, I find it very interesting that multiple people suddenly pivoted to Haze at EoD.

What would you have done at EoD ? Yoyo was a viable wagon then, would you have been arguing for Haze ? Me? or flipping to Yoyo?
WHY did you think Haze was so scummy? I think you said on PAGE 12, that Haze wasn't really contributing much.

That's a bit silly coming out of someone who I KNOW knows mafia better than that. I dont doubt you were AFK at EoD for real, but I just wonder would you have changed the day's outcome?

[FlaviusAetius]

The “I told you so” schtick doesn’t work D1. Haze did not post or do anything anything close to clearing himself as so the white-knighting makes it seem like you knew he was town, which would only be the case if you were mafia.

I think you're missing that Jamie's indignant because he was being linked to Haze, not because he was necessarily totally confident in Haze being town.

I think Jamiet was actually just pushing his reads at that point. Although, I do wish he show those in a more organized and less passive-aggressive manner

Jamie did a lot of pressure voting D1, I bet we will find something in his N1 though because he started advocating for different people then.

D&W he went HARD at. Yoyo he still had suspicions of and Bunny too.

[FlaviusAetius]

That Jamie was town, along with Haze.


I think there’s enough of a hangover with Dip and maybe yoyo that the scum team think they could initiate a miskill of either of them.

So maybe remove them from the pool for the time being.

OR Dip or Yoyo are MAFIA and they wanted us to think exactly this. I say Jamie was suspecting them and Bunny, surely there's at least one mafia in that bunch.