Mafia XL - A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Forum

[Vecna]

Currently I see no prospect of my survival so in accordance with my wincon

##Vote damo666

Balki please hurry and do a save post on me

Holy mother of fuck

[yavuzovic]

worcej and DrCJG both specifically said they were picking thdfrance over damo, and I believe flash was implying it.

The last two votes for thdfrance came from his counterwagons, DemonRHK and damo.

I think the EOD voting and reasons given for the votes clearly show that thdfrance was lynched to save damo, the question is why.

I do not think it is likely that a scum Balki would defend a scum damo that blatantly, so I think any of the other combination are more likely:
1. Balki is town and is wrong about damo
2. Balki is town and is right about damo
3. Balki is scum defending a town damo to look good if damo flipped

I find it interesting that all of the voters who made their choice in the last 30 minutes preferred to lynch thdfrance over damo (except thdfrance, who voted for damo during this time).

It seems to me that there is a good chance there was scum effort in saving damo, which contributes to the suspicion I already had of damo D1. In any case, I think a damo lynch would be informative.

With 5 scum players, wouldn't bussing be a better tactic in this game? They have men, why don't they just sacrifice the most suspicious one to make others clear? That's not LyLo, they didn't have to save scum!damo. This is confusing.

[Vecna]

##vote thdfrance

I just read his ISO. My impression is that he is flinging shade all over the thread in a way that scum often do. Look around for things to call people on. It is subtly different than most town process -- which involves more town reads and more puzzling. Hard to explain, that one.

But he flings shade at Ike. He flings shade at Damo. He flings shade at Jamiet. He flings shade at xorxes. He flings shade at me. Never much of a defense or a town read of anyone.

Looks a lot like scum to me.

And the kicker for me is that ghug started that wagon. If ghug is town, I respect his view. If ghug is scum, ghug is such a consistent busser! Being with ghug on Day 1 is a good place to be.

Still cannot really shake the feeling that Balki was actively trying to save Damo here in any way possible. Making the arguments to NOT vote Damo, but to actively VOTE ThdFrance as the alternative.

It can definitely also come from town, since a bunch of his reasons for townreading Damo were ok - but it still has a whiff of scum trying to save the driver - the push is really strong, and the quotes that he pulls from damo couldve just as well applied to a ton of the other wagons. Besides that, he did not really pull the 2 most towny quotes from Damo, which is weird. The two that swayed my mind in an instant.

[Vecna]

I strongly support the Damo lynch. There has been a lot of stuff pointed out by me and others about how he has played this game in a scum-indicative way.

The thd wagon has come out of no where and what's the case? I don't know, I don't see thd being scum or having played a more scum-indicative game then Damo.

@ND, that is a lot of words for almost no additional content. You could convey the exact same meaning with this:

"I think Damo is scum. I don't think thd is scum."

Did you read my post on why I think Damo is town, or my post on why I think thdfrance is scum? If you want to engage, engage with those arguments, or others.

At then this attack on ND (whose post felt a LOT more genuine that Balki's).

[Vecna]

There I go adding spaces after the hashtag again...

anyway ##VOTE Thd... rather him than Damo

Does a vanity vote on me. Gets called out by Bo_sox. Instant change

[Vecna]

Vecna and Durga both on style

This is very much gun to head pick 2.

I don't really like any of the wagons competing with me.

Can you unpack those more? What about each person's style?

Vecna less analytical than usual. Durga somewhat unengaged.

This is bullshit, since im very much the same level of analytical as always, and he ALWAYS scumreads me while I am being analytical.

[Vecna]

I think your wrong Balki and it does have new content. I don't like the thd wagon.

Can you elaborate on why you don't like the wagon? You don't like the people on it? You don't like the reasons voiced for votes on thdfrance? You suspect it has formed to protect someone? Something else?

I have pushed the thdfrance wagon. How do you feel about my alignment?

Once again that feeling that he is trying to overpower the opposition with words and is strongly agenda driven.

Maybe im just seeing things, but it appears odd to get these very big stances out of people after ND already stated at this point he felt the wagon came out of nowhere.

[Vecna]

I prefer Damo for a lot of reasons. I've already made my case on him known. Re-read or do a search on the bot to see what I said about him previously. You all know how to use the internet.

Its the last 7 minutes... if you want to convince us then give some bullets and be helpful.

Pretty towny post after the previous stuff. Shows consideration. Might not mean anything if Damo is town, but feels pretty good in general.

[Vecna]

@thdfrance -- can you leave us with your best thoughts here on who is scum?

How quaint, but also something that might point to me being wrong.

[Vecna]

##Vote thdfrance

Of course you do lol... Damo is definitely playing towny-survival mode now.

What type of garbage post is this

[Vecna]

@thdfrance -- can you leave us with your best thoughts here on who is scum?

this post implies you don't think he'll flip scum, aren't you voting him?

He also went to great lengths to defend damo.

If im wrong on Balki, this is also highly suspicious and might be setting up for the next mislynch.

[Vecna]

I don't actually think I've played with Balki for a very long time... Is he usually this uh, 'serious'

He's on the defensive and trying to taunt people. Almost like hes in fight mode because he knows he just pulled one off.

Also some other thoughts on damo soon

[Vecna]

That reminds me though. Vecna is playing.

Vecna, when you have a moment, please write a five-paragraph essay about your thoughts on my alignment.

Maybe on D3 or D4 if weve both managed to survive until then. Were you predicting your actions were going to prompt me to see stuff and come after you?

Dont worry, youre always the object of fascination. /pat-pat

[Vecna]

I'm pretty sure bo is town

Likely accurate, regardless of previous observations

[Vecna]

So I did a cursory re-read of EOD#1. Here are my findings:

1. Ghug basically starts the thdfrance wagon during Eod at the time DemonRHK and damo666 were the leading wagons. After Ghug starts the wagon and he says this when he starts it: “Can anyone look at thd and honestly claim he doesn't exude awkward scumminess?” all of Vecna, Tom and Ike immediately vote it in rapid succession bumping it up to a contending wagon with Damo and Demon. Should be noted here that Ghug doesn’t really have a case nor do the people who initially fuel the wagon. It’s just a, he’s scummy, and thus the wagon formation is suspect. As in, the wagon formation does not have town aligned motivation behind it. It’s a flash-grown-wagon designed to compete against the other two and confuse the voting pool.

2. Balki comes across as heavily suspect EOD1 for not only voting thdfrance, but also for doing everything he can to discredit the Damo wagon. It’s obvious that he did not want that to succeed and he was successful. Strangely, both Balki and DrCJG ask Thd for his thoughts before he dies. Why ask someone who you are voting for and believe to be scum for their scum reads? I can’t stress this enough and it reinforces point 1) there are non-town motivations at work here.

3. Should be pointed out that Balki isn’t the only one to defend Damo during the day. Tom also is a big defender of Damo. On what grounds? The case against him isn’t dismissable. It’s basically, ‘oh he’s town’.

4. ThdFrance says something which is something i’ve come back to several times, “I think Demon or Damo could be scum...but I don't think I've ever seen someone who was scum pull the self vote act. Last time I think I saw that was when Maniac did it in one of the early mafia games.” it’s a good point. Although, it’s definitely not impossible and Damo didn’t end on himself. He ended up voting for thd which is what I knew he would do. Some may say that is ‘town survival’, but it’s also scum survival. There is no way to glean alignment from that move. Could be either or. His other point is that he believes DemonRHK or Damo could be scum. I’m inclined to agree. DemonRHK is not looking good. What does he do EOD he goes back to voting yav for his ‘scum slip’. Yav didn’t scum slip. He is not a native english speaker and DemonRHK knows that. He was trying to find something to latch onto and tunnel and he did and while he was pushed and made a wagon it didn’t stick.

5. Flash enters the game during EOD and replaces Jamie. My spat with Jamie at the beginning of the game was not for fun. I was feeling him out. Scum Jamie is usually easy to spot. I think we were dealing with Scum Jamie, but I’m not 100% sold just yet. I thought we were and I thought the faux outrage was just that. When he came back it kind of confirmed my suspicions. Basically he picked a fight with the GMs, overly looked at mechanics, tunnelled me. These are all things I would expect Scum Jamie to do. He was doing things to make himself look active but not really engaging in the game in a significant way. He was playing over the top. It didn’t feel organic. When Flash comes in he just so happens to vote Thd which becomes the biggest wagon for.. Reasons. Just so happens to vote the inorganic wagon with no case to compete against DemonRHK and Damo. For reasons unexplained to us all. Righht.


In conclusion, I think we can narrow this down. The suspect pool is greatly reduced:
-Ghug and then rapid succession votes of Vecna, Ike, and Tom.
-DemonRHK and or Damo
-Flash/Jamie
-Balki and potentially DrCJG

I think that the Town vote was mostly split along Damo and DemonRHK. I think the scum pooled on Thdfrance and that it was heavily scum motivated wagon with a few town players that got lumped in. I think that Thd’s reads of Ghug and DemonRHK or Damo are good leads to follow. I intend to follow them. Now, that being said, I believe that we should concentrate on this suspect pool going into Day 2. That’s what I plan to do. All of them can’t be scum, but I would wager that the scum team is hiding in this pool of players with maybe a wildcard exception like Szpoti which can’t be ruled out.

I won’t be around for EON. Got stuff to do.

Why wouldnt you want to sorts Damo's alignment before pushing this course of action though? Before assigning motivation, make sure that youre actually looking at it from the right angle?

[Vecna]

@Durga, do you really consider my questions surprising? Do you not understand why I want you to elaborate?

Appearing directly after the night kill to say “Oh, how interesting” sounds a lot like bad play acting. It sounds a lot like someone trying to communicate “I did not know why was about to be Night Killed.” So I wanted you to elaborate on what you found so interesting.

Incidentally, I find your explanation unconvincing.

Tom is well respected, and he has probably discussed as a night 1 kill target during multiple mafia games in which he has appeared as town. I would think you would share the understanding that I have, which is mafia try to kill strong town players, all other things equal. Not that Mafia try to kill loud or outspoken players.

##vote Durga

I’d like to know — do you understand my thought process here? I don’t expect you to say you agree with it, but do you understand it? Do you consider my thoughts here to have some justification, or will you respond with more of a “can’t you read?” “Why are you so dumb?” kind of thing?

I mean, the kill choice was obviously a PR hunt right? Why not adress it from that angle.

The scumteam has some people that push it in the direction of looking for play patterns. Tom Bombadil was less outspoken than normally, while not making excuses for it. Almost like not trying to attract attention. Scum thought he was the type of player that would buckle under the weight of an important PR role and hide from view, to not be a serious threat to the scumteam with accurate reads.

Suckers

[Vecna]

Durga's logic on Balki is sound.

Balki's crap is distracting her too much. She has not obv-towned yet. Which is....worrying me.

[Vecna]

Just finished up a coding competition that was all day, so I don't really feel like digging through posts tonight.

Flash is being defensive.
I still think damo and DemonRHK are good votes.
ND continues to amaze me with his sage intellect (but for real, he feels town)
Xorxes looks a lot better than he did at the beginning. He mostly just seems more comfortable.

##vote damo

Squigs, what applies to Durga also applies to you.

Are you graduating from scum academy and just playing better this game? When are you going to be obv-town?

[Vecna]

Oh, and Balki seems town to me. He's sticking his neck out a lot.

Do you really expect him not to do that as scum? Are you at all familiar with his personality type? I mean, you might be right, but with this type of reasoning you will always lose every game he does roll scum.

[Vecna]

Oh, and Balki seems town to me. He's sticking his neck out a lot.

Also, why do you go against his wishes of saving Damo if he's so obviously town to you? That should give you pause. Or is he obv-town, but your reads are just much better?