WebMafia Olympics - Game #2 - Star Trek TNG: The Republic of Q [GAME THREAD]

[GlitterBomb]

First off it wasnt obvious, I misinterpretted when EoD would be so I accidentally fell asleep I woke up got onto the forum and started typing, I couldnt find anything about EoD so I was SUPER confused. I started typing and then Will says to stop typing because I was typing after I already died.

If you were in my position dont you think I had 90% chance of death? I didnt want to break the rules so yea.
I woke up hmm around 4 hours ago and then played BG3 with my friends(yes I got it after that mafia game xD) and now I am here

Bro you can LITERALLY READ THE THREAD TO FIND OUT WHO DIED.

You are so full of shit.

##VOTE FlaviusAetius

USUALLY I use the bot! I went through the thread and missed the EoD post, I THOUGHT EoD was soon so I immediately started posting , then Will said Im dead so I stopped

Pretty difficult to believe. The number of times I’ve re-read every page is honestly a bit embarrassing. But I wanted to take everything in and look at the different perspectives, especially at time progresses.

If you die, wouldn’t you want to know how exactly it went down? I spent over an hour today just looking for things to call out so I felt like I was proactively contributing. “I couldn’t find it” is a weird cop out to me.

I am of the belief that we would get at least one scum by voting will/damo/flav. But I’m also still just the slightest bit paranoid. Still wanting to analyze some things and take in all of the dialogue.

And also, RIP Worc - it was fun playing with you! And FWIW, I’m combing over all of your last posts in great detail.

[FlaviusAetius]

Ok, what was the reasoning for that Damo? Seems like you basically screwed us over and I’m not sure how you can explain that away. Seems awfully scummy.

And Chaqa, you wanted this game over quickly…. What would be a reason for that of town? Too much going on in life?

Flav dodge a bullet - still not convinced of his innocence.

I'll try to TL;DR this, but by getting only one kill and making the net result of next phase be 5-2, town only has one miskill available, which would make the game 4-2 and then N2 would make it 3-2 for D2.

HOWEVER, due to how this setup is however, scum can last-second sneak in a vote or 2 to get a second place wagon established if we're wrong on the kill tomorrow and make the end of D2 be 3-2, thus scum wins.

Make sense?

I dont know why you think we have to do one kill on D2, I think damo has set up a perfect opportunity for us to do a multikill day

[FlaviusAetius]

Im just not going to vote until the end of the day tbh. Im not having a triple kill

Well, you almost certainly shouldn’t want one lol.

I do think killing several here is better than just one, though. And mathematically a triple kill is just better than a double kill if it can be arranged. FYPOV it’s worse because you’re one of the three that would die (and you would probably not die in a double kill).

The way I see it we basically have to hit mafia here to win. It’s not strictly true if we only kill one, but our odds in an F5 of [damo/flav]/you/[three of me/chaqa/tfb/glitter] aren’t great either.

Killing damo, will and me is a bad idea, even if you think the three of us are mafia there is still an equal chance if not more that someone who hasnt even been considered yet should be killed

[FlaviusAetius]

Glitter looks pretty towny for not getting involved when she could've.

TFB placed his vote with 2 minutes left to get 2 flips correctly.

Damo played selfishly and ultimately performed an incredibly anti-town move.

The damo wagon didnt make sense from the beginning . Multiple people voted him because they didnt understand why he placed his votes, and like waiting 5 extra mintues for damo to explain it (or someone else like me!) would have allayed their concerns.

I never did and am not voting for Damo because I don’t understand his votes. Damo is probably my most well explained scum read.

I still have some stuff to catch up on but D1, that is how his wagon got started

[FlaviusAetius]

Bro you can LITERALLY READ THE THREAD TO FIND OUT WHO DIED.

You are so full of shit.

##VOTE FlaviusAetius

USUALLY I use the bot! I went through the thread and missed the EoD post, I THOUGHT EoD was soon so I immediately started posting , then Will said Im dead so I stopped

Pretty difficult to believe. The number of times I’ve re-read every page is honestly a bit embarrassing. But I wanted to take everything in and look at the different perspectives, especially at time progresses.

If you die, wouldn’t you want to know how exactly it went down? I spent over an hour today just looking for things to call out so I felt like I was proactively contributing. “I couldn’t find it” is a weird cop out to me.

I am of the belief that we would get at least one scum by voting will/damo/flav. But I’m also still just the slightest bit paranoid. Still wanting to analyze some things and take in all of the dialogue.

And also, RIP Worc - it was fun playing with you! And FWIW, I’m combing over all of your last posts in great detail.

What do you mean "how it went down? I knew how it went down I got a lot of votes and top two die. Its not a copout its the truth
I dont think Ive ever reread pages, after I read and respond to stuff I move on , if the bot was here maybe I'd try doing an ISO but even then thats not really "rereading" like you say you are

[FlaviusAetius]

Ok, what was the reasoning for that Damo? Seems like you basically screwed us over and I’m not sure how you can explain that away. Seems awfully scummy.

And Chaqa, you wanted this game over quickly…. What would be a reason for that of town? Too much going on in life?

Flav dodge a bullet - still not convinced of his innocence.

I don’t know that I wanted it over super quickly, but the game likely will end after two day phases anyway

Thats if we completely fail I say that is unlikely we have good opportunity to go for a multi kill here. @Eden going for a predestined, here are the most sus people lets kill them gameplay is not smart

[President Eden]

The problem I see with single killing today is yes, we can’t lose today if we do that. But if we miss, then we head into F5 where we CANNOT afford to kill anyone but one of the mafia. Even if we all agree to vote the same person and that person is scum, we have to figure out how to prevent the mafia from last-second voting elsewhere to break a tie for second and killing a townie, because then we go 3 town/2 mafia -> 2 town/1 mafia, mafia nightkills and wins.

On the flip side, once we hit a mafia, we can run the Designated Survivor strategy and effectively win the game once we’re down to 1 mafia. We pick the townie least likely to be mafia and we ice the game by tie vote killing everyone else. With just one mafia alive this strategy SHOULD be resilient enough against manipulation to work. (And it’s not as cheesy because we would actually be deciding based on merit and not glorified RNG.)

So for all practical purposes, we MUST hit mafia today. We do that, we almost certainly win; we fail, we almost certainly lose. And the best way to do that is to embrace the fact that we could just outright lose today and take as many shots as possible.

Shooting 1 and hitting probably wins the game
Shotting 1 and missing probably loses the game
Shooting 3 and hitting 2 mafia definitively wins the game
Shooting 3 and only hitting 1 mafia probably wins the game
Shooting 3 and missing altogether outright loses the game

[FlaviusAetius]

And with that, I’m just gonna stay with what I’ve done then. This is nerve wracking!

then this

suss

Ha! Not sus at all! I didn’t get an answer or information that cleared up why placing another vote for someone I wasn’t convinced on made sense for town. Sure we could’ve had two or more kills, but I didn’t want to be reckless and vote another town out just to have another kill. The super last minute votes - to change what seemed to be our consensus for a while now, that’s sus. Just to save Flav who you say is so clearly town?

MAYBE Im looking at damo's actions completely differently from everyone else, but even if he didnt save me, think about what he really did, he made D2 the same as D1, but with a very crucial NK of N1. We now have a great opportunity to act without just shooting randomly into the dark, as D1 multi kill would have been!

[Chaqa]

I’m gonna hold off on voting Will for now because we don’t need my vote for the triple kill until we clearly establish consensus from TFB/Chaqa/Glitter/me. Chaqa and Glitter in particular haven’t actually weighed in on the triple kill plan, and it needs consensus from us four to work.

I’m down.

Was at a Star Wars draft

[President Eden]

then this

suss

Ha! Not sus at all! I didn’t get an answer or information that cleared up why placing another vote for someone I wasn’t convinced on made sense for town. Sure we could’ve had two or more kills, but I didn’t want to be reckless and vote another town out just to have another kill. The super last minute votes - to change what seemed to be our consensus for a while now, that’s sus. Just to save Flav who you say is so clearly town?

MAYBE Im looking at damo’s actions completely differently from everyone else, but even if he didnt save me, think about what he really did, he made D2 the same as D1, but with a very crucial NK of N1. We now have a great opportunity to act without just shooting randomly into the dark, as D1 multi kill would have been!

Yes… he made D2 the same as D1, except that we lost pseudo confirmed town worcej. How does that accrue to our benefit again?

[FlaviusAetius]

The problem I see with single killing today is yes, we can’t lose today if we do that. But if we miss, then we head into F5 where we CANNOT afford to kill anyone but one of the mafia. Even if we all agree to vote the same person and that person is scum, we have to figure out how to prevent the mafia from last-second voting elsewhere to break a tie for second and killing a townie, because then we go 3 town/2 mafia -> 2 town/1 mafia, mafia nightkills and wins.

On the flip side, once we hit a mafia, we can run the Designated Survivor strategy and effectively win the game once we’re down to 1 mafia. We pick the townie least likely to be mafia and we ice the game by tie vote killing everyone else. With just one mafia alive this strategy SHOULD be resilient enough against manipulation to work. (And it’s not as cheesy because we would actually be deciding based on merit and not glorified RNG.)

So for all practical purposes, we MUST hit mafia today. We do that, we almost certainly win; we fail, we almost certainly lose. And the best way to do that is to embrace the fact that we could just outright lose today and take as many shots as possible.

Shooting 1 and hitting probably wins the game
Shotting 1 and missing probably loses the game
Shooting 3 and hitting 2 mafia definitively wins the game
Shooting 3 and only hitting 1 mafia probably wins the game
Shooting 3 and missing altogether outright loses the game

AGREED I just the three you want to kill is a mistake and we could take better shots

[TheFlyingBoat]

Im just not going to vote until the end of the day tbh. Im not having a triple kill

Well, you almost certainly shouldn’t want one lol.

I do think killing several here is better than just one, though. And mathematically a triple kill is just better than a double kill if it can be arranged. FYPOV it’s worse because you’re one of the three that would die (and you would probably not die in a double kill).

The way I see it we basically have to hit mafia here to win. It’s not strictly true if we only kill one, but our odds in an F5 of [damo/flav]/you/[three of me/chaqa/tfb/glitter] aren’t great either.

Killing damo, will and me is a bad idea, even if you think the three of us are mafia there is still an equal chance if not more that someone who hasnt even been considered yet should be killed

That's only true if you treat the behavior in this thread as independent of role assignment. The probabilities of mafia are by far highest with you three.

[President Eden]

But also, it’s not the same, because arranging a double kill twice is way, way easier than arranging a triple kill.

[TheFlyingBoat]

ok yeah I've done the math and I like it. ##vote flav and ##vote will

[TheFlyingBoat]

The problem I see with single killing today is yes, we can’t lose today if we do that. But if we miss, then we head into F5 where we CANNOT afford to kill anyone but one of the mafia. Even if we all agree to vote the same person and that person is scum, we have to figure out how to prevent the mafia from last-second voting elsewhere to break a tie for second and killing a townie, because then we go 3 town/2 mafia -> 2 town/1 mafia, mafia nightkills and wins.

On the flip side, once we hit a mafia, we can run the Designated Survivor strategy and effectively win the game once we’re down to 1 mafia. We pick the townie least likely to be mafia and we ice the game by tie vote killing everyone else. With just one mafia alive this strategy SHOULD be resilient enough against manipulation to work. (And it’s not as cheesy because we would actually be deciding based on merit and not glorified RNG.)

So for all practical purposes, we MUST hit mafia today. We do that, we almost certainly win; we fail, we almost certainly lose. And the best way to do that is to embrace the fact that we could just outright lose today and take as many shots as possible.

Shooting 1 and hitting probably wins the game
Shotting 1 and missing probably loses the game
Shooting 3 and hitting 2 mafia definitively wins the game
Shooting 3 and only hitting 1 mafia probably wins the game
Shooting 3 and missing altogether outright loses the game

AGREED I just the three you want to kill is a mistake and we could take better shots

where do you want the shots to go

[President Eden]

ok yeah I’ve done the math and I like it. ##vote flav and ##vote will

where do you want the shots to go

lol

[Chaqa]

I’ll be home in like 20-30 minutes

[President Eden]

The problem I see with single killing today is yes, we can’t lose today if we do that. But if we miss, then we head into F5 where we CANNOT afford to kill anyone but one of the mafia. Even if we all agree to vote the same person and that person is scum, we have to figure out how to prevent the mafia from last-second voting elsewhere to break a tie for second and killing a townie, because then we go 3 town/2 mafia -> 2 town/1 mafia, mafia nightkills and wins.

On the flip side, once we hit a mafia, we can run the Designated Survivor strategy and effectively win the game once we’re down to 1 mafia. We pick the townie least likely to be mafia and we ice the game by tie vote killing everyone else. With just one mafia alive this strategy SHOULD be resilient enough against manipulation to work. (And it’s not as cheesy because we would actually be deciding based on merit and not glorified RNG.)

So for all practical purposes, we MUST hit mafia today. We do that, we almost certainly win; we fail, we almost certainly lose. And the best way to do that is to embrace the fact that we could just outright lose today and take as many shots as possible.

Shooting 1 and hitting probably wins the game
Shotting 1 and missing probably loses the game
Shooting 3 and hitting 2 mafia definitively wins the game
Shooting 3 and only hitting 1 mafia probably wins the game
Shooting 3 and missing altogether outright loses the game

I posted this in the context of 1 v 3 kills, but the same logic applies to a regular ole double kill as well, of course. It’s strictly worse than a triple kill because a double kill still loses if we hit 0 mafia, but takes one fewer shot. But it’s still better, IMO, than a single kill. And if the triple kill faces too much of a coordination problem, we should double kill instead. A double kill is far easier to protect from shenanigans than a triple kill since it doesn’t depend on maintaining a tie.

[President Eden]

In short:

- You should advocate for a triple kill if you wisely recognize our only realistic chance of winning is to hit mafia today, and you believe we can overcome the coordination problem of needing to maintain a tie against hostile actors.

- You should advocate for a double kill if you also wisely recognize our only realistic chance of winning is to hit mafia today, but you are worried about the coordination problem.

- You should advocate for a single kill if your short-term risk-aversion prohibits you from seeing past your nose.

[TheFlyingBoat]

ok yeah I’ve done the math and I like it. ##vote flav and ##vote will

where do you want the shots to go

lol

I mean the dude is scummy as hell, I just want him to hoist himself by his own petard higher