M 1029: The webMafia Olympics game 1 SPY VS SPY

[Haze with a Z]

Um...no nightkills. So teams are even. I guess that's good.

We really don't know if teams are even after the night since recruits could have gone screwy.

3:3:3 assumed.

##Vote Col7by

I kinda think that recruits are messed up but also at the same time I feel like I’m the only person who isn’t recruited at this point tbh which is kinda a weird position. Makes me feel like a kingmaker and the only way I can see town winning at this point is if both scum teams implode on each other so it’s starting to feel more grim.

[Haze with a Z]

I think it would actually be better for us if someone had died instead because it would show that we have a chance but alas it didn’t work that way.

[Haze with a Z]

Also I don’t understand why people post more during the first like 12 hours of the day than they do any other time tbh

[Haze with a Z]

I really don't think Yoyo lets the tie happen yesterday if he's an OG mafia.

can you explain to me the difference if he's a recruit

If he was recruited N2, his behavior before is irrelevant.
If he was recruited N1, the argument holds but it's a little weaker because he could have a higher priority teammate he wanted to protect or a strong motivation to no kill to help his team.

I still don’t see How it’s like risky for them to tie and it’s probably better for both scum teams at this point if they don’t miskill and instead kill someone on the other team tbh and it’s kinda shifted away from mafia members needing to save themselves so much I think. It’s kinda hard to tell without being one myself tbh.

[Haze with a Z]

Also brain I don’t understand your perspective on me wrt to Hamilton/spirit.

You say you don’t think I’m necessarily mafia if they are. But you also say that you still think me and Hamilton are the ogs. And then you vote spirit and basically don’t mention me again tbh.

[Hamilton Brian]

Considering the potential yoyo:bona pair.

From bona, three directed posts to yoyo, including the vote post that justifies the vote with the wondering of when the decision for no-kill stops.

From yoyo, first mention or quote of bona comes with this gem: "You guys are making it too easy to figure out who was recruited. Can I want to be on a team with ghug so please get him first."

That's the extent of their interactions over D2. It's super light. I also didn't read anything that suggested bona was enticing others to get on the yoyo wagon. It's very passive.

[Bonatogether]

I really don't think Yoyo lets the tie happen yesterday if he's an OG mafia.

can you explain to me the difference if he's a recruit

If he was recruited N2, his behavior before is irrelevant.
If he was recruited N1, the argument holds but it's a little weaker because he could have a higher priority teammate he wanted to protect or a strong motivation to no kill to help his team.

curious in extreme

[Bonatogether]

Considering the potential yoyo:bona pair.

From bona, three directed posts to yoyo, including the vote post that justifies the vote with the wondering of when the decision for no-kill stops.

From yoyo, first mention or quote of bona comes with this gem: "You guys are making it too easy to figure out who was recruited. Can I want to be on a team with ghug so please get him first."

That's the extent of their interactions over D2. It's super light. I also didn't read anything that suggested bona was enticing others to get on the yoyo wagon. It's very passive.

you've been coming for me the whole day and not yet placed a vote, and not yet explicitly scumread me lol

where is the meat? or are you chicken?

[Bonatogether]

ham bone believes in scumreading without voting, and shading without substance

he makes posts in passing but never backs it up with anything

[Hamilton Brian]

Considering the potential yoyo:bona pair.

From bona, three directed posts to yoyo, including the vote post that justifies the vote with the wondering of when the decision for no-kill stops.

From yoyo, first mention or quote of bona comes with this gem: "You guys are making it too easy to figure out who was recruited. Can I want to be on a team with ghug so please get him first."

That's the extent of their interactions over D2. It's super light. I also didn't read anything that suggested bona was enticing others to get on the yoyo wagon. It's very passive.

you've been coming for me the whole day and not yet placed a vote, and not yet explicitly scumread me lol

where is the meat? or are you chicken?

Right now I am putting out my theories/considerations. Why is it so important for you that I vote right now when I am looking at a variety of pairs? What do you gain by rushing my thinking?

Right now I am attempting some dot-connecting. What are you doing?

[Hamilton Brian]

WRT yoyo:haze

yoyo barely acknowledges haze; some what I think are insignificant replies about nieces and purple haze. It's not until brain entreats them that they put the vote on haze.

And that was with 13 minutes to go in the day.

haze to yoyo:
Talks about their vote on yoyo in a reply to brain; they share that they think yoyo is a recruit. Kind of chastises yoyo for "misinterpreting" my posts. Calls yoyo's pronouncement of getting recruited to ghug's team as a "confession."

I see haze voting for yoyo but it just seems thin and progressionless. It's a diffident approach.

[brainbomb]

Colby (day 3)
I think that spirit D1 was a very misguided town on a heat seeking missile towards nowhere. Felt like someone with no information and has now stuck to the same story to not look like they’re changing up their act as scum. I don’t trust their reads but I trust my read on their gameplay

you trust your read on their gameplay means what exactly?

(spirit day 1)
I buy Dip's thinking on this as kind of genuine, HB's a bit too but less so, but I don't really buy Ghug's take on this at all. If it was baiting people to go along with a bad no kill to see who he could catch, I kind of get it, but he definitely wasn't being real there. Everyone being invested in killing day 1 is kind of a main stay of the genre, if that isn't the case the set up is pretty messy, since we just end up sitting around with thumbs in our bums for a while. Game set up makes sense to kill today for town, maybe slightly less so for scum because while they are likely to live, they have a 1/8 chance of losing immediately, I could see safe boy scum wanting a no kill more than a town would. My feeling is ##vote ghug, since he is the only one I feel is being disingenuous so far.

(Colby N1)
I think brain put their neck on the line big time to have been a scum player there but I question ghug switching off the no-kill. I know it was dying but why stay on it and just dip for a random person (I’ll read your posts again to see if there is reasoning for dip). It’s nice getting back from missing a few hours and not have 10 pages to go through so maybe I can analyze a bit more now.

If Spirit was on a heat seeking missle to nowhere Day 1, you appeared to be in agreement that he was on a heat seeking missle to apparently somewhere here.

Day 2

Ghug day one felt normal based on lat game but day 2 off so that is why I think recruit

This seems to be a direct contradiction to the read you had the previous night on ghug.

When ghug asks you about this you reply:

I think that you have been more MIA and have not double downed on opinion like you did for no-kill the day before

(Spirit D2)
##vote bozo

My pressure vote on colby wasn't doing crap anyway because everyone is voting for someone different. I dont like the yoyo no kill, I dont like the way ghug is being a dirtbag. Bona and HB are being themselves but they dont spark joy. Haze is real defensive and I kind of feel he hasn't learned to just let heat wash over him yet. Colby still seems off to me, not really seeming genuine at all, and I think he would pick bozo. I could also see haze doing it.

I am pretty fine killing bozo, ghug, colby, haze or maybe Hb. In that order of how scummy I feel they are. Bozo and ghug seem the most notably different today and are the most likely to be turned since they clearly don't give a fuck. I am going to sleep on it. I like killing either of them but I am of the opinion it is more likely they are turned and not OG spies atm.

(Colby D2)
##vote bozo
I think bozo had a very nothing D1 and I noted before other reasoning. I will continue to say D1 no-kill was best because we gather no info a percentages were lower but guess that’s best into the ground now. Spirit feels like they’re posting with little substance but more misguided town with possibility of recruitment.

It seems you and spirit agree on quite a lot of things. Namely you both think ghug was recruited, you both think bozo is scum. And youve changed your tune to mostly building up spirit even as he keeps coming at you seemingly pretty hard.

[Bonatogether]

Considering the potential yoyo:bona pair.

From bona, three directed posts to yoyo, including the vote post that justifies the vote with the wondering of when the decision for no-kill stops.

From yoyo, first mention or quote of bona comes with this gem: "You guys are making it too easy to figure out who was recruited. Can I want to be on a team with ghug so please get him first."

That's the extent of their interactions over D2. It's super light. I also didn't read anything that suggested bona was enticing others to get on the yoyo wagon. It's very passive.

you've been coming for me the whole day and not yet placed a vote, and not yet explicitly scumread me lol

where is the meat? or are you chicken?

Right now I am putting out my theories/considerations. Why is it so important for you that I vote right now when I am looking at a variety of pairs? What do you gain by rushing my thinking?

Right now I am attempting some dot-connecting. What are you doing?

this is patently not true lmao. you've spent a long time shading me and you don't have the spine to vote it. your posts have been self-evidently facile and useless, so it's clear that you're just waiting for a good opportunity to hop onto a wagon once it's already built.

[Col7by]

Colby (day 3)
I think that spirit D1 was a very misguided town on a heat seeking missile towards nowhere. Felt like someone with no information and has now stuck to the same story to not look like they’re changing up their act as scum. I don’t trust their reads but I trust my read on their gameplay

you trust your read on their gameplay means what exactly?

(spirit day 1)
I buy Dip's thinking on this as kind of genuine, HB's a bit too but less so, but I don't really buy Ghug's take on this at all. If it was baiting people to go along with a bad no kill to see who he could catch, I kind of get it, but he definitely wasn't being real there. Everyone being invested in killing day 1 is kind of a main stay of the genre, if that isn't the case the set up is pretty messy, since we just end up sitting around with thumbs in our bums for a while. Game set up makes sense to kill today for town, maybe slightly less so for scum because while they are likely to live, they have a 1/8 chance of losing immediately, I could see safe boy scum wanting a no kill more than a town would. My feeling is ##vote ghug, since he is the only one I feel is being disingenuous so far.

(Colby N1)
I think brain put their neck on the line big time to have been a scum player there but I question ghug switching off the no-kill. I know it was dying but why stay on it and just dip for a random person (I’ll read your posts again to see if there is reasoning for dip). It’s nice getting back from missing a few hours and not have 10 pages to go through so maybe I can analyze a bit more now.

If Spirit was on a heat seeking missle to nowhere Day 1, you appeared to be in agreement that he was on a heat seeking missle to apparently somewhere here.

Day 2

Ghug day one felt normal based on lat game but day 2 off so that is why I think recruit

This seems to be a direct contradiction to the read you had the previous night on ghug.

When ghug asks you about this you reply:

I think that you have been more MIA and have not double downed on opinion like you did for no-kill the day before

(Spirit D2)
##vote bozo

My pressure vote on colby wasn't doing crap anyway because everyone is voting for someone different. I dont like the yoyo no kill, I dont like the way ghug is being a dirtbag. Bona and HB are being themselves but they dont spark joy. Haze is real defensive and I kind of feel he hasn't learned to just let heat wash over him yet. Colby still seems off to me, not really seeming genuine at all, and I think he would pick bozo. I could also see haze doing it.

I am pretty fine killing bozo, ghug, colby, haze or maybe Hb. In that order of how scummy I feel they are. Bozo and ghug seem the most notably different today and are the most likely to be turned since they clearly don't give a fuck. I am going to sleep on it. I like killing either of them but I am of the opinion it is more likely they are turned and not OG spies atm.

(Colby D2)
##vote bozo
I think bozo had a very nothing D1 and I noted before other reasoning. I will continue to say D1 no-kill was best because we gather no info a percentages were lower but guess that’s best into the ground now. Spirit feels like they’re posting with little substance but more misguided town with possibility of recruitment.

It seems you and spirit agree on quite a lot of things. Namely you both think ghug was recruited, you both think bozo is scum. And youve changed your tune to mostly building up spirit even as he keeps coming at you seemingly pretty hard.

I said ghug seemed different throughout day 2 which was later than spirit came to this and for different reasonings. I also was on bozo D1 and don’t think it’s gotten much traction on since then so have died down on it a bit

[bozotheclown]

Remind me what Colby's townslip was?

At 6-2-2 is ever too risky to try to recruit someone at that point and better to do a NK? Like imagine you have a 25% of getting outed as mafia and also a chance of recruiting the same person. Even if it becomes 4-3-3 mafia def at that point want to influence votes to target each other so town can stay afloat

Eh, that's a lame townslip. He'd clearly read the setup. He could have misinterpreted as either alignment.

If he was a D1 mafia I doubt he would have not been aware of the details of the role.

[bozotheclown]

Between Spirit and bozo on D2:

bozo refers to a recruited pool of bona, brain, ghug, and spirit if the mafia recruited successfully (meaning they think col7by, hamilton, yoyo, haze, and themselves town)

Suggests "distancing" posts between spirit and bona mean that spirit recruited bona.

Looking at spirit, they make a large post, found here since I don't want to copy it all, http://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?p=420565#p420565
directed at bozo which also has the vote for bozo. Spirit also really makes a distancing statement about why they wouldn't recruit bona, but that is for another writing.

Spirit then suggests perhaps yoyo has taken the bozo "bait" implying (what I am not sure about yet, but perhaps linking them together...) something.

"bozo also seemed scummier on D1..." Suggests col7by recruited bozo and ends off with bozo is a good kill.

Finally spirit's post at 12:10 is big, and massive. It mentions bozo 9 times and I need to take some time to read it carefully.

means that he thinks the og scum are in the pool colbert, hambone, yogurt, haze, and himself.

That is not accurate, my theory was (as still is) that the D2 mafia were in the group of Bonatogether, brainbomb, ghug, and SpiritoftheRadio, including the original 2 mafia, based on POE.

[bozotheclown]

Um...no nightkills. So teams are even. I guess that's good.

We really don't know if teams are even after the night since recruits could have gone screwy.

3:3:3 assumed.

##Vote Col7by

I kinda think that recruits are messed up but also at the same time I feel like I’m the only person who isn’t recruited at this point tbh which is kinda a weird position. Makes me feel like a kingmaker and the only way I can see town winning at this point is if both scum teams implode on each other so it’s starting to feel more grim.

At least 3 players must still town, and there is reasonable chance that there are 4 or 5 town (and a very small chance of 6 or 7).

[bozotheclown]

WRT yoyo:haze

yoyo barely acknowledges haze; some what I think are insignificant replies about nieces and purple haze. It's not until brain entreats them that they put the vote on haze.

And that was with 13 minutes to go in the day.

haze to yoyo:
Talks about their vote on yoyo in a reply to brain; they share that they think yoyo is a recruit. Kind of chastises yoyo for "misinterpreting" my posts. Calls yoyo's pronouncement of getting recruited to ghug's team as a "confession."

I see haze voting for yoyo but it just seems thin and progressionless. It's a diffident approach.

Are you looking at all possible combinations of 2? My top D2 scum suspects (original or N1 recruits) are Bonatogether, brainbomb, ghug, and SpiritoftheRadio, have you looked at any of the 6 combinations of these players yet?

[brainbomb]

##VOTE bozo

I'm really not feeling good about this game.

Maybe it's the food poisoning.

All joking aside, I hope you remain healthy. We were in Siam Reap and I ate something funky on Saturday or Sunday. We had found this amazingly cheap place near the big market and pub town with filling rice meals and essentially 50 cent beers. In the rainy season, those beers are so refreshing.

Had spent the Sunday at Angkor Wat so walked a tonne. Woke up Monday with achy joints, like when I originally caught Covid, but otherwise felt fine. Went to go out to see the Pink Temple but got caught in massive downpours. Ate and swam back at the hotel, but then at bedtime I came down with the chills and couldn't stop shaking. Were were to be flying to Malaysia the next day and Adele shouts at me, "You better not have fucking Covid and you better not wreck our flight tomorrow!" 4 hours later I evacuated; loudly.

It shook me from Tuesday (I flew fine if uncomfortably) to about Thursday. Either underdone eggs or something at the cheap rice and beer place.

This does feel like buddying. Where did ghug say he was sick? I couldnt find a post where ghug talks about not feeling well. In the above he was referring to not feeling good about the gamestate.

[Hamilton Brian]

@bozo, no I haven't considered those pairs. Right now I am working under the hypothesis that there was bussing happening on the D2 votes.