M 1029: The webMafia Olympics game 1 SPY VS SPY

[ghug]

I think spirit is less likely to be an OG and Toto is a better flip here

Nebraska is basically Kansas.

lol anyways yoyo. Stupid autocorrect like bona aka Nina all over again

I really don't think Yoyo lets the tie happen yesterday if he's an OG mafia.

[brainbomb]

I’ll leave it up to brain to tie break. I wouldn’t mind a no-kill tbh so Im cool here

This certainly would seem to be yoyo wanting me to kill bozo. I doubt he says this because he wants me to kill him. He also said he doesnt think bozo is a spy there.

So sir ghug, if you think this sentiment comes from a town place, who on the yoyo wagon is the mafia?

[brainbomb]

im aware you didnt say yoyo is town, but you softened on him to being not an OG mafia, so hes lower on your list if thats the case then right?

[Col7by]

colby, why do you trust someone who is actively trying to kill you? that distinction of that he probably isnt an OG mafia would need more explanation. what about spirits day 1 makes him unlikely as an OG mafia?

(im asking because you were in the no kill squad, and spirit was attacking into that core quite a lot.) it seems you felt people who werent in your no kill bracket were more likely to be town; so, what makes spirit town from the opposite side of that equation?

I think that spirit D1 was a very misguided town on a heat seeking missile towards nowhere. Felt like someone with no information and has now stuck to the same story to not look like they’re changing up their act as scum. I don’t trust their reads but I trust my read on their gameplay

[Col7by]

I was sort of hoping you had some examples from your bunnygo games of types of posts you made as both alignments. screenshots or summarizing, or something. I just didnt see any of those items so far.

I can’t exactly screenshot them since I play this on my phone. I tried my best to summarize but my game has evolved so I think it is hard to characterize

[ghug]

I’ll leave it up to brain to tie break. I wouldn’t mind a no-kill tbh so Im cool here

This certainly would seem to be yoyo wanting me to kill bozo. I doubt he says this because he wants me to kill him. He also said he doesnt think bozo is a spy there.

So sir ghug, if you think this sentiment comes from a town place, who on the yoyo wagon is the mafia?

My position has been Ham, but I'm starting to question that.

Yoyo being town doesn't necessarily mean that the people voting for him were scum, though.

[Col7by]

Hamilton has locked himself into a position of distrust regarding any evidence I come across, and assumes every talking point I make is to concoct fraudulent points.

colby is postured that someone voting him is never an og mafia

yoyo is just not presenting any opinions at all same with Haze

bozo case is pretty compelling, and if bozo is mafia, it makes sense to want to see spirit v bozo as two days in a row of scum vs scum logic. so I dont really care which side of that coin we go, but bozo almost died yesterday and spirits pressure was lifted by hamilton moving to yoyo, and ghug playing some role in cajoling that move.

Seems like spirit had more help to avoid being a late wagon than bozo or yoyo in that scenario

Yoyo voted me day 1 and I think they could be OG so I don’t think this characterization is completely accurate

[brainbomb]

Spirit Day 1

TL;DR: reads spectrum
-----Lean Town-----
Bozo
Dip
Bona
Yoyo
------Null-​-----
Haze
BB
-----Lean Scummy-----
HB
Colby
Ghug

Spirit N2

In case of nk, here are dirty reads and states
-----Town-----
BB
----Slight town---
Bona
HB
----Null----
yoyo
----Sc​um----
Ghug
Haze
Bozo
Colby

Largest moves here are bozo goes from top town to nearly bottom of his reads scum

Colby and ghug stay at the bottom, but HB moves up to same level as bona.

Bona basically is always in that same spot for him in townreads.

seems like ghug never has moved out of the scum zone for him.

yoyo went from town to null, and in spite of slowly but casually seeing yoyo fall in his reads, he is so determined on bozo yesterday that he would not even ever vote anyone but bozo.

definetely alot of moves happening here from day 1 to now. its alot to take in and digest.

[Bonatogether]

hamilton can i get a tl:dr on your post

Brain's wrong about me.

is that so

[dargorygel]

Vote Count 3.01

SpiritoftheRadio (2) bozotheclown (end vote), brainbomb (endvote)
ghug (1) Yoyoyozo
Col7by (1) SpiritoftheRadio
brainbomb (1) Hamilton Brian
Yoyoyozo (1) Col7by
bozotheclown (1) ghug
Hamilton Brian (1) Bonatogether

Not Voted: Haze

[brainbomb]

Bozo seems cool, trying to solve, not being dumb, seems like town, maybe most town towny. Most importantly since there are no connections to draw between players rn is that he feels right on brand.

Bozo has explicitly stated he's not trying to solve. The fuck are you talking about?

You are correct there, my bad for the language i used, Bozo was one of the only folks i didn't reread so i didn't realize he said that. I had good vibes to me and that was all I needed. He was diving deeper into the math and outcomes of the mechanics and the probabilities more than anyone else, that stuck me as the town bozo i remember. That is a different kind of "solving" than it probably came off as in my reads post. I reread bozo now, and while I agree with my previous read for the day, he does seem kind of lukewarm when it comes to actually killing since he left it to HB to switch and he didn't even though he could have easily. Despite not favoring a no kill. Oh well, I was willing to let it be a tie for the interest of seeing who would let it happen anyway. Plus I wanted you dead more than dip.

HB comes out of this seeming more towny to me, although folks having some consistency in their beliefs would be nice, especially since HB is calling for us to focus on the no kill v. pro kill debate while his play could be retold coming down on either side at this point.

I feel like everyone is kind of playing like they're mafia because they might become mafia later. Just makes it hard to actually get a feel for anyone. Hopefully tomorrow we can actually get some info and start playing the game.

I have opinions on who I think the likely picks are, but I am gunna let the folks talk first.

I will say that the main scum read that got worse over night as opposed to better (HB and ghug are still scummy to me, but they did feel better in the night), is Colby. I don't like how he was kind of pushing brain and not pushing him. I felt he was pretty scummy on day 1 and would have a decent chance of being OG spy. Dunno if he'd be picked by a spy, but I'd like to just start off with a ##vote col7by

Yoyo, can you give me some reads? Or thoughts on recruitment or how your opinion on OG spies has developed over nightfall? I liked a couple things you said yesterday, but I want to hear more

Considering I'm currently the top wagon for 1) playing the game more than HB likes (though by his own admission about the same amount as him) and 2) literally not even being acknowledged by ghug all day before he votes for me. I think the bar for analysis is at an all time low. I'd love for you to spill.

I am pretty fine killing bozo, ghug, colby, haze or maybe Hb. In that order of how scummy I feel they are. Bozo and ghug seem the most notably different today and are the most likely to be turned since they clearly don't give a fuck. I am going to sleep on it. I like killing either of them but I am of the opinion it is more likely they are turned and not OG spies atm.

Seems to suggest HB is town, and that HBs pushes on him are from a town place. Does not seem to give that same luxury to bozo, seems to keep putting a target on colby consistently but then backing off of that. now is starting to see haze as vulnerable, and probably doesnt transition haze to scum if they are scum with haze. postures that ghug and bozo are likely convert scum but dedicates the rest of his efforts to trying to get rid of bozo anyway.

either townreads HB to buddy and appease, or just is trying to make HB seem really good to everyone for his earnestness

[Bonatogether]

Between Spirit and bozo on D2:

bozo refers to a recruited pool of bona, brain, ghug, and spirit if the mafia recruited successfully (meaning they think col7by, hamilton, yoyo, haze, and themselves town)

Suggests "distancing" posts between spirit and bona mean that spirit recruited bona.

Looking at spirit, they make a large post, found here since I don't want to copy it all, http://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?p=420565#p420565
directed at bozo which also has the vote for bozo. Spirit also really makes a distancing statement about why they wouldn't recruit bona, but that is for another writing.

Spirit then suggests perhaps yoyo has taken the bozo "bait" implying (what I am not sure about yet, but perhaps linking them together...) something.

"bozo also seemed scummier on D1..." Suggests col7by recruited bozo and ends off with bozo is a good kill.

Finally spirit's post at 12:10 is big, and massive. It mentions bozo 9 times and I need to take some time to read it carefully.

means that he thinks the og scum are in the pool colbert, hambone, yogurt, haze, and himself.

[bozotheclown]

I am still town, and I think Col7by, Hamilton, Haze, and Yoyoyozo are probably still town.

That means the mafia would be Bonatogether, brainbomb, ghug, and SpiritoftheRadio if the mafia recruited successfully.





These distancing posts showing up on D2 make me think SpiritoftheRadio recruited Bonatogether and brainbomb recruited ghug.

The reasons I thought, and still think, Col7by, Hamilton, Haze, and Yoyoyozo were likely town D2 are:

Col7by: He town slipped D1 in a way that I doubt anyone, much less a fairly new player, would try to fake, and I think he was suspected enough D1 that he was not likely to be recruited N1.

Hamilton: I don't think he would break the tie D1 EOD like he did as mafia, and doing so made it unlikely he was recruited.

Haze: I thought his comment about not realizing he could post at night seem unlikely to be faked and not likely to be the case if he was an original mafia, and I also think he was questioned enough D1 to not be a likely recruit target.

Yoyoyozo: I had no idea of his alignment D1, but I don't think he would draw attention to himself D2 pushing for a no-kill as mafia, especially considering how that went for ghug D2.

Even if I was 100% correct, though, any 2 of Col7by, Hamilton, Haze, and Yoyoyozo could now also be mafia, but it is much more likely one or both of the mafia failed to successfully recruit N2.

Remind me what Colby's townslip was?

Ok I was hoping y'all would just get this but we're not playing mafia.

Several people have already noted that town is doomed. That's true if we play it like mafia, and it's kind of a feature of the setup. The way town wins this game is by pitting the mafia against each other. Townies can also win this game by being recruited, but my reading of the rules has always been that playing to this outcome runs contrary to playing to one's own win condition (the spectrum of positions on this point kind of undermines the game's whole conceit, which is one of the reasons I'm personally not a fan of recruitment games).

If we kill a townie today, we have less ability to effect our will as the game progresses further. If we kill scum today, there's no counterweight to the other scum team. We go into tomorrow in what's basically a brand new 7v2 mafia game in which we have no PRs, scum has twice as much power as a normal mafia team to reduce the number disparity as long as their leader is alive, and every new recruit is going to lack connections to their teammates. Town is unlikely to win that game. We need the Mafia team to be threats to each other.

We normally kill D1 for two reasons, neither of which applies here:
1. To start getting voting information. Bozo has already pointed out that this doesn't work when the mafia don't have teammates. I'm a little bit shocked Bona didn't notice this.
2. Because our numbers advantage will only get worse over time. This isn't applicable here for the reasons I laid out above.

Counterargument:
There are currently 3 teams
after some time, the recruits will turn the game from 7 1 1 to something like 4 3 2 or 3 3 3
At that point, only a small fraction of the players who are currently town have a chance of winning.
If we eliminate a maf today, we eliminate an entire team. That is the main goal in voting today.
This works for the exact reason that there are only one maf on each team.
Starting d2 and onward, maf will likely control around half combined of the players, which will lead to maf having greater control over who is eliminated. Again, the best option for people who are currently town is to kill one maf leader and try to be recruited into the other's faction.

At 6-2-2 is ever too risky to try to recruit someone at that point and better to do a NK? Like imagine you have a 25% of getting outed as mafia and also a chance of recruiting the same person. Even if it becomes 4-3-3 mafia def at that point want to influence votes to target each other so town can stay afloat

[bozotheclown]

##VOTE bozo

I'm really not feeling good about this game.

I would be surprised if you have not al least been recruited by now, but even as mafia I would think that you are looking for the other mafia team by now, and I think it should be obvious to you that I am town based on how I have been playing this game.

[Bonatogether]

Nebraska is basically Kansas.

lol anyways yoyo. Stupid autocorrect like bona aka Nina all over again

I really don't think Yoyo lets the tie happen yesterday if he's an OG mafia.

can you explain to me the difference if he's a recruit

[bozotheclown]

What do you make of Hamilton's agenda? He's putting in a lot of work and I'm not sure what to think.

I think it is a good indication that he is still town because he seems to be looking for 2 scum teams.

[Haze with a Z]

By the way, trying to prove that you’re town also isn’t again your win conditions if everyone is scum reading you.

I don’t think you are trying to prove yourself town, I just think you are trying to be recruit bait for the other team and doing it poorly by saying you’d potentially throw the game if ghug isn’t with you

Understandable assessment. I think a happy medium is me playing in a way that’s kind of scummy (my normal play tbh) so that if I’m not recruited by the team I want, the level of effort I put in after I’m recruited to avoid being DKd would probably reflect that. There are several factors that go into a player’s morale, I’m just being very upfront and honest about mine. That isn’t playing against my wincon, it’s knowing myself and being transparent.

Yeah and this sounds different from what you’ve said so far tbh

[ghug]

The reasons I thought, and still think, Col7by, Hamilton, Haze, and Yoyoyozo were likely town D2 are:

Col7by: He town slipped D1 in a way that I doubt anyone, much less a fairly new player, would try to fake, and I think he was suspected enough D1 that he was not likely to be recruited N1.

Hamilton: I don't think he would break the tie D1 EOD like he did as mafia, and doing so made it unlikely he was recruited.

Haze: I thought his comment about not realizing he could post at night seem unlikely to be faked and not likely to be the case if he was an original mafia, and I also think he was questioned enough D1 to not be a likely recruit target.

Yoyoyozo: I had no idea of his alignment D1, but I don't think he would draw attention to himself D2 pushing for a no-kill as mafia, especially considering how that went for ghug D2.

Even if I was 100% correct, though, any 2 of Col7by, Hamilton, Haze, and Yoyoyozo could now also be mafia, but it is much more likely one or both of the mafia failed to successfully recruit N2.

Remind me what Colby's townslip was?

Counterargument:
There are currently 3 teams
after some time, the recruits will turn the game from 7 1 1 to something like 4 3 2 or 3 3 3
At that point, only a small fraction of the players who are currently town have a chance of winning.
If we eliminate a maf today, we eliminate an entire team. That is the main goal in voting today.
This works for the exact reason that there are only one maf on each team.
Starting d2 and onward, maf will likely control around half combined of the players, which will lead to maf having greater control over who is eliminated. Again, the best option for people who are currently town is to kill one maf leader and try to be recruited into the other's faction.

At 6-2-2 is ever too risky to try to recruit someone at that point and better to do a NK? Like imagine you have a 25% of getting outed as mafia and also a chance of recruiting the same person. Even if it becomes 4-3-3 mafia def at that point want to influence votes to target each other so town can stay afloat

Eh, that's a lame townslip. He'd clearly read the setup. He could have misinterpreted as either alignment.

[ghug]

lol anyways yoyo. Stupid autocorrect like bona aka Nina all over again

I really don't think Yoyo lets the tie happen yesterday if he's an OG mafia.

can you explain to me the difference if he's a recruit

If he was recruited N2, his behavior before is irrelevant.
If he was recruited N1, the argument holds but it's a little weaker because he could have a higher priority teammate he wanted to protect or a strong motivation to no kill to help his team.

[Haze with a Z]

Maybe I’ve been reading too surface. See, I think antagonistic pairs make for good partners. I think.

I think that could be true for recruits but not so much with the leader tbh because imo that would have a higher chance of accidentally voting out or outing the leader