M 1029: The webMafia Olympics game 1 SPY VS SPY

[ghug]

##VOTE bozo

I'm really not feeling good about this game.

[Bonatogether]

##vote hambone

i love one vote wagons!!!

[Yoyoyozo]

I was really expecting to have been recruited. Here’s an interesting thing to think about town:
If a spy team failed to recruit someone last phase, what are the practical chances it was an enemy spy vs. competing recruit? Who are the likely safe recruits, in the eyes of spies?

Trying to figure out if your team is behind now?

That’s a strange way to put it, but yes.

[brainbomb]

The surfing in this is crazy. I cant believe how cool Tahiti looks. Like sign me up; id suck at surfing but it looks cool

[brainbomb]

Yoyo why did your colby scumread change day 2?

[ghug]

The surfing in this is crazy. I cant believe how cool Tahiti looks. Like sign me up; id suck at surfing but it looks cool

What does this code mean?

[brainbomb]

The surfing in this is crazy. I cant believe how cool Tahiti looks. Like sign me up; id suck at surfing but it looks cool

What does this code mean?

That I am massively out of shape

[Hamilton Brian]

hamilton can i get a tl:dr on your post

Brain's wrong about me.

[Hamilton Brian]

Hi I wasn’t recruited but also I’m mostly just checking in to say that I don’t feel Like talking tonight tbh and I think I need to sleep relatively soon because apparently I’ve been not getting enough sleep but also I don’t think I’m in the right headspace to talk about myself rn without calling myself a bad person.

This is an excuse I don’t care I’m not reading or posting til tmr good night everyone

I am not sure what part of the brain system this is supposed to hit but I really don't like it.

A lot of what I am reading from Haze is reasons why they're not "playing" the game.

[Hamilton Brian]

##VOTE bozo

I'm really not feeling good about this game.

Maybe it's the food poisoning.

All joking aside, I hope you remain healthy. We were in Siam Reap and I ate something funky on Saturday or Sunday. We had found this amazingly cheap place near the big market and pub town with filling rice meals and essentially 50 cent beers. In the rainy season, those beers are so refreshing.

Had spent the Sunday at Angkor Wat so walked a tonne. Woke up Monday with achy joints, like when I originally caught Covid, but otherwise felt fine. Went to go out to see the Pink Temple but got caught in massive downpours. Ate and swam back at the hotel, but then at bedtime I came down with the chills and couldn't stop shaking. Were were to be flying to Malaysia the next day and Adele shouts at me, "You better not have fucking Covid and you better not wreck our flight tomorrow!" 4 hours later I evacuated; loudly.

It shook me from Tuesday (I flew fine if uncomfortably) to about Thursday. Either underdone eggs or something at the cheap rice and beer place.

[Hamilton Brian]

Day 2 is where the votes might now have some information.

Working under the assumption that bussing is happening. If so, then:

If bozo is mafia, then one of Col7by, Spirit, or ghug is their partner.
If yoyo is mafia, then one of bona, haze, or hamilton is their partner.
If Haze is mafia, then one of brain or yoyo is their partner.
If Spirit is mafia, then bozo is their partner.

The opposite is true if bussing isn't happening. That's a bit more complicated for me to create since it'd be adding the 5 or 6 players not associated.

bozo:Col7by
bozo:Spirit
bozo:ghug

yoyo: bona
yoyo:haze
yoyo:hamilton

haze:brain
haze:yoyo

spirit:bozo

[Hamilton Brian]

None of those match up too much, if at all, with D3 voting as of right now, but that's ok.

One would expect to run iso's and look for evidence of distancing, over-the-top disagreements (?), maybe even just ignoring.

[brainbomb]

Ghug reread

So Hamilton was throwing his weight around alot day 2, a change in behavior from day 1, and in rereading Hamilton I stumbled on some odd decisions instead by ghug.

##VOTE Spirit

I'm coming around to brain's thinking on Hambone too.

You better have a more compelling reason that Cambodian grass to align yourself with Brain's read of me, which is, again, an incredible Chris Sharma reach.

Not an Olympic sport, I don't think, but give me some points to move on to the next round with the attempt!!!!!

You never really explained your 180 on me. You acknowledged you contradicted yourself and then couldn't give an explanation. That suggests to me that you didn't care very much about the outcome.

I'm back to ##VOTE Hambone. I like both leading wagons.

My great theory of everything at this point:

Don't kill:
bona - He's been annoyingly dumb but I stand by my townread from yesterday so I don't think he's an OG mafia at least.
brain - Good town vibes most of the game. Again plausibly recruited but I see nothing that actually points to that and he'd be a bad target.

Maybe kill:
Col7by - Just ain't much here.
Haze - brain moved me a little bit. My gut still wants to townread and I like the indignation in response to brain, but he's preferable to the top group.
Yoyo - Very meh.

Actively like killing:
bozotheclown - He's been weird. I don't necessarily understand scum motivation for that but it's also not at all like his town game.
Hambone - Inconsistencies he can't explain feel like plausibly a scumtell.
SpiritoftheRadio - The wagon on me smelled really bad yesterday and I have a hard time believing there was actually no opportunistic scum on it. Nothing really to townread in my mind.

Also, a general reminder that hunting isn't a good indicator of towniness in games with two scumteams.

At this point ghug locked in that he liked the top two wagons for the day:

Bozotheclown (3) Col7by, SpiritoftheRadio, brainbomb
SpiritoftheRadio (2) Hamilton Brian, bozotheclown (endvote)
No-Kill (1) Yoyoyozo
Yoyoyozo (1) Bonatogether
Bonatogether (1) Haze with a Z
Hamilton Biran (1) ghug
-------------------------------------------------------

ghug lists spirit in his actively like to kill section. here is what happens next

Ham, if you think Yoyo and Colby are the OG spies, why are you voting for Spirit?

What's the rush to change it? There's lots of D2 left. And lots of time to change my line of thinking.

What's it to you?

You apparently think two people, neither of whom is a leading wagon, are the best people to kill today but aren't making an actual effort to kill them.

There's time? Not sure what kind of test you're trying to get me to take.

I'm not trying to get you to take any sort of test. Your behavior confuses me.

Ghug has been talking to Hamilton, pushing Hamilton and mostly focused there for a good portion of the day.

With no other discussion in between and nothing to suggest why this happens, then suddenly ghug is townreading spirit.

The post that triggers ghug into now townreading spirit is absurdly long, it takes a while to read, and ghug ends the post saying

I'm not trying to get you to take any sort of test. Your behavior confuses me.

Ghug has been talking to Hamilton, pushing Hamilton and mostly focused there for a good portion of the day.

With no other discussion in between and nothing to suggest why this happens, then suddenly ghug is townreading spirit.

This has messy town vibes.

To see the full quote, it appears on page 33.

Simply put ghug found the most massive post to conceal a transition read on spirit; someone he identified as a likely OG mafia, into instead pushing the only two voters who were actively hunting spirit.

I think bozo's case on spirit is therefore correct that Spirit is a mafia OG, and ghug is teamed with spirit here. since ghug is doing more leg work it makes sense that spirit is the OG and ghug is just the nervous lieutenant.

This doesnt make Hamilton free of sin either but Hamilton actually comes out looking alot better in this situation than ghug does.

[Hamilton Brian]

For bozo:Col7by D2 interactions:

"Would be a pretty bold strategy of me to have recruited bozo if that is who my vote is currently for but sure." (distancing)

Pretty light associations from Col7by toward bozo.

Bozo mentions Col7by once on D2, suggesting that he thinks they're still town.

[brainbomb]

##Vote spirit

[Hamilton Brian]

Between Spirit and bozo on D2:

bozo refers to a recruited pool of bona, brain, ghug, and spirit if the mafia recruited successfully (meaning they think col7by, hamilton, yoyo, haze, and themselves town)

Suggests "distancing" posts between spirit and bona mean that spirit recruited bona.

Looking at spirit, they make a large post, found here since I don't want to copy it all, http://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?p=420565#p420565
directed at bozo which also has the vote for bozo. Spirit also really makes a distancing statement about why they wouldn't recruit bona, but that is for another writing.

Spirit then suggests perhaps yoyo has taken the bozo "bait" implying (what I am not sure about yet, but perhaps linking them together...) something.

"bozo also seemed scummier on D1..." Suggests col7by recruited bozo and ends off with bozo is a good kill.

Finally spirit's post at 12:10 is big, and massive. It mentions bozo 9 times and I need to take some time to read it carefully.

[ghug]

Ghug reread

So Hamilton was throwing his weight around alot day 2, a change in behavior from day 1, and in rereading Hamilton I stumbled on some odd decisions instead by ghug.

##VOTE Spirit

I'm coming around to brain's thinking on Hambone too.

You better have a more compelling reason that Cambodian grass to align yourself with Brain's read of me, which is, again, an incredible Chris Sharma reach.

Not an Olympic sport, I don't think, but give me some points to move on to the next round with the attempt!!!!!

You never really explained your 180 on me. You acknowledged you contradicted yourself and then couldn't give an explanation. That suggests to me that you didn't care very much about the outcome.

I'm back to ##VOTE Hambone. I like both leading wagons.

My great theory of everything at this point:

Don't kill:
bona - He's been annoyingly dumb but I stand by my townread from yesterday so I don't think he's an OG mafia at least.
brain - Good town vibes most of the game. Again plausibly recruited but I see nothing that actually points to that and he'd be a bad target.

Maybe kill:
Col7by - Just ain't much here.
Haze - brain moved me a little bit. My gut still wants to townread and I like the indignation in response to brain, but he's preferable to the top group.
Yoyo - Very meh.

Actively like killing:
bozotheclown - He's been weird. I don't necessarily understand scum motivation for that but it's also not at all like his town game.
Hambone - Inconsistencies he can't explain feel like plausibly a scumtell.
SpiritoftheRadio - The wagon on me smelled really bad yesterday and I have a hard time believing there was actually no opportunistic scum on it. Nothing really to townread in my mind.

Also, a general reminder that hunting isn't a good indicator of towniness in games with two scumteams.

At this point ghug locked in that he liked the top two wagons for the day:

Bozotheclown (3) Col7by, SpiritoftheRadio, brainbomb
SpiritoftheRadio (2) Hamilton Brian, bozotheclown (endvote)
No-Kill (1) Yoyoyozo
Yoyoyozo (1) Bonatogether
Bonatogether (1) Haze with a Z
Hamilton Biran (1) ghug
-------------------------------------------------------

ghug lists spirit in his actively like to kill section. here is what happens next

Ham, if you think Yoyo and Colby are the OG spies, why are you voting for Spirit?

What's the rush to change it? There's lots of D2 left. And lots of time to change my line of thinking.

What's it to you?

You apparently think two people, neither of whom is a leading wagon, are the best people to kill today but aren't making an actual effort to kill them.

There's time? Not sure what kind of test you're trying to get me to take.

I'm not trying to get you to take any sort of test. Your behavior confuses me.

Ghug has been talking to Hamilton, pushing Hamilton and mostly focused there for a good portion of the day.

With no other discussion in between and nothing to suggest why this happens, then suddenly ghug is townreading spirit.

The post that triggers ghug into now townreading spirit is absurdly long, it takes a while to read, and ghug ends the post saying

I'm not trying to get you to take any sort of test. Your behavior confuses me.

Ghug has been talking to Hamilton, pushing Hamilton and mostly focused there for a good portion of the day.

With no other discussion in between and nothing to suggest why this happens, then suddenly ghug is townreading spirit.

This has messy town vibes.

To see the full quote, it appears on page 33.

Simply put ghug found the most massive post to conceal a transition read on spirit; someone he identified as a likely OG mafia, into instead pushing the only two voters who were actively hunting spirit.

I think bozo's case on spirit is therefore correct that Spirit is a mafia OG, and ghug is teamed with spirit here. since ghug is doing more leg work it makes sense that spirit is the OG and ghug is just the nervous lieutenant.

This doesnt make Hamilton free of sin either but Hamilton actually comes out looking alot better in this situation than ghug does.

I was questioning Hamilton's vote of Spirit because I thought it was odd that he wasn't voting for his scumreads, not because I townread Spirit. His words were incongruous with his actions. I only came to townread Spirit later.

[Hamilton Brian]

Missed spirit's EOD when they pronounce, "kill bozo nerds."

That seems to me like a pretty risky sentiment to announce if things are simply tied; does one risk losing a teammate? I think if spirit is OG spy, it wouldn't matter. OG spy can still recruit, hope they evade a probable NK from the other side.

[brainbomb]

In case of nk, here are dirty reads and states
-----Town-----
BB
----Slight town---
Bona
HB
----Null----
yoyo
----Scum----
Ghug
Haze
Bozo
Colby

Within categories, I have ordered them from least likely to be an OG spy to most likely to be an OG spy. Stuff can obviously change based on recruits, but this is where we are at Night 2

This could point to spirit being scum with yoyo and ghug; but yoyo voting ghug currently would mean internal strategic bussing by two recruits.

Or as hamilton posits: bona. null is a particularly unique spot to place yoyo given that yoyo was the counter wagon to spirits top scumread.

Why does spirit now scumread Haze also, he always had Haze as null from my recollection

[Hamilton Brian]

And then bozo:ghug

From bozo:
casts an early vote on ghug; asks ghug what the best option for D2 is; questions why ghug thinks there are mafia teams.

Lists their town reads leading to the logical mafia potentials in which ghug was mentioned. Suggests brain recruited ghug.

Changes the vote to spirit but also replies to me that they would have recruited ghug.

Ghug announces the vote to Hamilton, and bozo replies that Hamilton and themselves are the most town in the game.

Bozo tells ghug that they could have explained why bozo was wrong but instead discredited by calling them mafia. And that was it from bozo with 18 hours remaining.

From ghug:

Three responses to bozo's questions but no animoisity in any of them.
Creates a list where bozo is mentioned as a good kill because bozo's been weird and doesn't understand the scum motivation.

In reading ghug's day I feel like they interact with bozo well enough but then seems to drop a rather ambivalent vote on bozo.