M 1029: The webMafia Olympics game 1 SPY VS SPY

[Col7by]

Colby played games with bunnygo and I think he has some experience playing but thats about it.

Can confirm this

Howd you do as mafia in those?

I’ve played three games now. Was Maria in my second game where it was all our first time being mafia. I had been a little overly aggressive and got turned on in a speedwagon while on PTO

[Yoyoyozo]

I was really expecting to have been recruited. Here’s an interesting thing to think about town:
If a spy team failed to recruit someone last phase, what are the practical chances it was an enemy spy vs. competing recruit? Who are the likely safe recruits, in the eyes of spies?

[brainbomb]

Can confirm this

Howd you do as mafia in those?

I’ve played three games now. Was Maria in my second game where it was all our first time being mafia. I had been a little overly aggressive and got turned on in a speedwagon while on PTO

Can you provide any quotes of the types of messages you made as town and as mafia?

[brainbomb]

I was really expecting to have been recruited. Here’s an interesting thing to think about town:
If a spy team failed to recruit someone last phase, what are the practical chances it was an enemy spy vs. competing recruit? Who are the likely safe recruits, in the eyes of spies?

Speaking for myself I played to be too volatile to ever be a consideration. I wanted to win as town playing as town and no one recruited me. I imagine this has to do with me not picking sides yesterday. Mafia became aware suddenly that I wasnt a good option.

I havent concerned myself with who would be a solid recruit because simply finding people who have been scummy all along was always best bet.

Its still hamilton-haze and then maybe less you; maybe colby if you are mafia.

If its 3-3 then people I liked posts from are probably evil now like ghug, spirit or bozo

[Col7by]

Howd you do as mafia in those?

I’ve played three games now. Was Maria in my second game where it was all our first time being mafia. I had been a little overly aggressive and got turned on in a speedwagon while on PTO

Can you provide any quotes of the types of messages you made as town and as mafia?

I guess it’s hard because in my first game I was very passive and take everything in and then my next two games (including mafia) I came out more aggressive trying get people to slip. Translating to here is hard since I don’t know any of you and have little prior knowledge to play off of

[Yoyoyozo]

I was really expecting to have been recruited. Here’s an interesting thing to think about town:
If a spy team failed to recruit someone last phase, what are the practical chances it was an enemy spy vs. competing recruit? Who are the likely safe recruits, in the eyes of spies?

Speaking for myself I played to be too volatile to ever be a consideration. I wanted to win as town playing as town and no one recruited me. I imagine this has to do with me not picking sides yesterday. Mafia became aware suddenly that I wasnt a good option.

I havent concerned myself with who would be a solid recruit because simply finding people who have been scummy all along was always best bet.

Its still hamilton-haze and then maybe less you; maybe colby if you are mafia.

If its 3-3 then people I liked posts from are probably evil now like ghug, spirit or bozo

The reason I bring it up now is because it’s reasonable to assume that D2 was 2-2-5 but for math reasons, 3-3-3 is hard to pull off. If it’s 2-3-4, the majority spy team would know this, and know who a spy is. Thought I’d mention this possibility because it’s fairly likely, and may change how some town play.

[brainbomb]

I’ve played three games now. Was Maria in my second game where it was all our first time being mafia. I had been a little overly aggressive and got turned on in a speedwagon while on PTO

Can you provide any quotes of the types of messages you made as town and as mafia?

I guess it’s hard because in my first game I was very passive and take everything in and then my next two games (including mafia) I came out more aggressive trying get people to slip. Translating to here is hard since I don’t know any of you and have little prior knowledge to play off of

Summarizing or screenshotting key things you think were weak
Moments from you as scum maybe?

[brainbomb]

Ham being beligerent and radical as town is on brand but his scum game is more strategic and deliberate, cold and nuanced. Id say what hes doing here fits that description

[Col7by]

Can you provide any quotes of the types of messages you made as town and as mafia?

I guess it’s hard because in my first game I was very passive and take everything in and then my next two games (including mafia) I came out more aggressive trying get people to slip. Translating to here is hard since I don’t know any of you and have little prior knowledge to play off of

Summarizing or screenshotting key things you think were weak
Moments from you as scum maybe?

I honestly wasn’t fully aware because I was on PTO when people caught on to me. I think I came out really trying to paint a picture on one person but was willing to vote for whoever was in the lead to lock in the win for us on the next vote with said person. Instead people were like why is Colby going after this person let’s just get him out. Only guessing tho not positive

[Bonatogether]

hamilton can i get a tl:dr on your post

[Bonatogether]

guys i watched us vs serbia basketball and i have to say america needs new basketball players

[Bonatogether]

happily able to report that jokic didn't show up so we won anyways but seriously

[brainbomb]

happily able to report that jokic didn't show up so we won anyways but seriously

Yea its because these dudes are a woke joke

[Haze with a Z]

Hi I wasn’t recruited but also I’m mostly just checking in to say that I don’t feel Like talking tonight tbh and I think I need to sleep relatively soon because apparently I’ve been not getting enough sleep but also I don’t think I’m in the right headspace to talk about myself rn without calling myself a bad person.

This is an excuse I don’t care I’m not reading or posting til tmr good night everyone

[ghug]

##vote ghug for making me wait

Can't recruit you if I'm town

[ghug]

Yers, Brain, I am OG spy.

You've been pretty deliberate this game. Not flinging around too much; kind of just sticking with 2 or 3 people, but also utilizing a process that I know is flawed since you've used it to scum me.

Just for the purposes of this game...let that attachment to your process go...and just focus on me in THIS game.

What are the scratches on the wall that tell you I am mafia?

OR are you accusing as a way of confessing?

I think you're surfacing, and you've got a neat little tactic that to anyone not you looks like, "Ah, look at Brain...he's really trying to solve the game," but I think it is more a smoke and mirrors dog and pony show. Especially since your conclusion is bunk.

##Vote Brain

This is a weird post.

[ghug]

I am still town, and I think Col7by, Hamilton, Haze, and Yoyoyozo are probably still town.

That means the mafia would be Bonatogether, brainbomb, ghug, and SpiritoftheRadio if the mafia recruited successfully.

i feel like we've played before but i don't remember how you play. what is up with radio man

##VOTE brain so I can be the only one who hasn't been voted today.

These distancing posts showing up on D2 make me think SpiritoftheRadio recruited Bonatogether and brainbomb recruited ghug.

The reasons I thought, and still think, Col7by, Hamilton, Haze, and Yoyoyozo were likely town D2 are:

Col7by: He town slipped D1 in a way that I doubt anyone, much less a fairly new player, would try to fake, and I think he was suspected enough D1 that he was not likely to be recruited N1.

Hamilton: I don't think he would break the tie D1 EOD like he did as mafia, and doing so made it unlikely he was recruited.

Haze: I thought his comment about not realizing he could post at night seem unlikely to be faked and not likely to be the case if he was an original mafia, and I also think he was questioned enough D1 to not be a likely recruit target.

Yoyoyozo: I had no idea of his alignment D1, but I don't think he would draw attention to himself D2 pushing for a no-kill as mafia, especially considering how that went for ghug D2.

Even if I was 100% correct, though, any 2 of Col7by, Hamilton, Haze, and Yoyoyozo could now also be mafia, but it is much more likely one or both of the mafia failed to successfully recruit N2.

Remind me what Colby's townslip was?

[ghug]

This is going to be a lengthy post in which I work to deconstruct Brain's theory that I am mafia. Why oh why am I spending so much time on that? Probably a better use of time is to walk through all of Brain's posts and note the inconsistencies and tells but...

So in D1, or on reflection of D1, Brain decided I was leaning town and gave Dip some pressure as to why Dip thought I was scum.

Then we have this N1 post.

Hamilton Brian I like his presence. His willingness to make the daykill. He seemed to be scumreading dip so the move isnt out of character .and yet he also offered out recruitment advice posts. He was trying to illicit advice or something and unless hes actually openly asking for help he must think it would be a good idea. Id not put it past town hamilton to do things of that type either. Overall his day was pretty okay. His early posts were not scummy and his tone was alright.

Follows up by saying he leans town on me.

And then a mention of Spirit (is this some sort of coaching connection)?

Spirit, when you get a chance I think you might actually be right about Hamilton. I am moving him to scumread now for a few reasons ive discovered in my rereads.

So perhaps look at further connection between Spirit and Brain.

This is the big post; this is where Brain publishes his methodology on how he arrives at the conclusion I am scum. I'll quote it but then try to respond to the points within...bolded and underlined will be my replies.

The Case vs Hamilton the Brian

First off this is a discovery, and a series of alarming realizations. I ran through a huge data project that took up some of my time last night, where we needed to have every mini games day 1 posting habits in order to even consider accurate comparative stuff.

What I found was the last part of this so ill get this.

Here is Part 1.

I am personally good with the tie.

Should it look like no-kill will not win out and we start to coalesce, I'm not inclined to vote ghug, but Dip would be my choice. Or else Bona.

Leaning town: ghug, col7by, bozo, yoyo, brain
Unclear: haze
Lean darkly: bona, dip, spirit

Hamilton was among the no kill voters and was still in that bucket when he made this list. He had argued here that if no kill failed he would be interested in a bona or a dip kill. The first odd part is, he is scumreading spirit but doesnt list him as someone he would be inclined to vote. So im just gonna ask, how does that distinction happen? Pretty easily; could it have been the wagons at the time or simply where my mind was currently at. I think that's reaching for low-hanging fruit.

I'll reread that in a moment brain.

We're also going to need the 4 vanity votes to shift one this all picks up steam.

After seeing a case on dip, someone he wants to vote, and thinks is scum; he states that the main goal before reading the case is to convince vanity voters to change their votes. I wasn't convincing so much as stating, "Hey you all that are on those wagons, let's start making some moves."So in a span of 4 minutes, he went from being good with a tie, to wanting to shore up votes. Mischaracterization Somehow he implies that he will read my case after putting in some sort of "work" to make that happen.

At 1:47 left in the day Hamilton starts openly asking for advice on to who to recruit tonight. Profane mischaracterization which I'll address at the end of this post.

As we're moving close to end of day, is this the time to do one of those pools for information. Say, if I were a spy I would recruit...

What would that information tell us? I don't know. I don't know we get far enough to use it, but...

Shortly after, he says

Is Mafia 1 team motivated to getting Spy 2 leader DK'd?

the specific way this is implied, is that there is no vice versa. Maybe im misreading this but this sounds like he is only asking this question one way. No, I am theorizing out loud because as I wonder outloud I think I might come to some clarity or someone else might get an aha.In my mind this is because Hamilton is one of the mafia, and is only really curious about his opponent mafia team.

It is just us; I don't want a mad scramble at the end so I will revert back to no-kill if I see it going badly for ghug.

##Vote ghug

Previously against this option he now joins the wagon on ghug anyway. tying things up accomplishing the no kill strategy
He then once again continues to try to fish for free advice on who to recruit.Incorrect. My thought process is it would impact voting or something as we progressed through the game.

So Spirit, say you're Spy. Who are your top three recruits?

At the final moment of the day, 1 minute to go, Hamilton breaks the tie to kill dip.

He then proceeds to make a string of self depricating posts shaming himself for his mistake.

You can thank me but I really screwed town. Again. Mr. Fucking Impetuous.

It's not like one miskill is any better than any other one right now.

And we have two camps: no-kill is bad/no-kill is optimal. I feel like a heel sitting on the latter all day just to then fuck right in and make a fool of myself. Again.

He then begins again on wanting more info on who is going to be recruited, and continues to press this idea.

I think towards EoN, before spies get a chance to revert their recruitment orders, we ...

Well, shit, we can just do it early on D2.

Make a list of most likely to be recruited, then create a pool of daykills based on that.

I think Hamilton is pretty clearly one of the mafia here, trying to solicit free recruitment advice.


Now for the data tell part of this:
In order to find this data I pulled every posting data item from every one of the 28 mini games into an excel and then began to omit gms from each list since gms posting data shouldnt be included.
game by game I go through and sort first by scumgames.
I then take each scumgame for each player and create their averages of posts per game, words per game, and words per post.

I then repeat the process for every town game, and at the end of my data, only 3 players from this game had a sample size of greater than 1 to use as comparative data.

So I compared ghugs town mini games to his scum
bozos town mini games to his scum
and hamiltons town mini games to his scum

What I found was that I was able to create a tendencies chart for each player
bozo Has less Posts Has more words, and higher words per post as Mafia

ghug Posts more as scum, posts more words as scum, posts more words per post as scum

Hamilton Brian Posts less as scum, Posts less words as scum, Posts less words per post as scum Look at the stats for this game then if that's your metric

-----
Comparing these tendencies, averages and considering the setup, the nuances, I noted that ghug only failed moderately on 2 categories of words per day, and words per post at a difference of 192 more words than his usual average and 13.47 more words per post than his usual average.

bozo only slightly failed in all 3 categories with 6 less posts than usual, 107 more words than usual, 11.16 more words per post than usual. I dont consider bozo failing in these three areas to be all that odd given just how weird the setup is, and allowing for this to just happen anyway.

But when I got to Hamilton, he not only failed in every category, he failed with 6 less posts than a usual day 1 for himself, 403 less words than his usual town self, and 5 less words per post than his usual self.

So once I saw that. It occurred to me that his variances are all below his usual stats, and hes also been actively asking for recruitment advice in the game.

Simply put. I think Hamilton is guilty here

Yep, and as I said yesterday...what an imptuous, stupid, play. Compare it with my previous game where I was Desperado. What are the similarities?

I think the problem inherent is that you want there to be similarities.

Ir's not that I want there to be similarities; there are similarities.

No Hamilton, you are dodging the question.

the problem is not that you killed dip, the problem is that you need to use your kill of him last game as an excuse for the reaction to doing so. Again a leap of logic based on something you think I am implying.

you are comparing a game where you had a hunch, and secretly input a unannounced suicide bomb kill on him basically when he was a top wagon because you scumread him.

here you scumread him, and professed you were fine with a no kill, and felt no urgency to make the day have a kill; professed not being interested in a ghug kill but drove up his wagon instead. Explained previously in the above passaged; you need to factor that inyou tried to cajole vanity voters onto ghug, and when they didnt join you chose to just kill someone. In inaccurate observation

you could have just simply made dip the main wagon any of that final 2 hours, but despite your own statements to the contrary it seems you actually did want to kill ghug but wanted others to do it for you.

Sure, but I was pretty soundly in the no-vote camp until I got the itchy non-thinking finger again

Your town game is quiet, random, and theoretical. you seldom concern yourself with public perception, in fact you are routinely oblivious to it.
I posit, if that's your judgement of my play, that I am not so quiet since there's 9 of us but I am still random, trying to be theoretical, and putting a lot of my thinking into the thread.
id describe what im seeing here as performative, appeal to audience; perhaps vecna-like when he is on his scum high

I appreciate the checks of "this game vs previous games" but with his editorializing, and no one fact checking him, there's no guarantee of honesty there. It's like Jeff Gannon asking "Why are you the greatest president to date" then writing the headline "George W Bush is the greatest president to date."

And now I am realizing that it's just you and I posting. Which makes it look like it's OMGUS between you and I. So far you have shaded one town player, who you wouldn't have known the alignment of with some points of data that I don't think are clearly solid.

You've shaded another one with a set that I am not sure about because I have never played with Haze with a Zed.

And now you've shaded me with your data set, that now I know I can't trust, when I am definitely town.

Brain Brain Brain Brain Brain. Are you one of these spy leaders? Three cases but incorrect on two of them.

I think Brain plays like a chimpanzee when town. Throws a lot of shit all over the place; even picks up other chimp shit not of their doing, and flings that. They like the reaction. Unfortunately, mafia Brain does the same thing.

If I didn't have a fair and impartial GM in Darg, I would say that I am so pro-town, I would say, "Screw your mafia wincon!" and then blab in the thread about who recruited me.

I want town to win this despite the odds, goddamnit!

Who's with me?

Did we give up when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

Who's with me?

I see these posts as performances as opposed to rational dialogue. Okay, but certainly I can descend into that sometimes, yeah? I'm doing it as town so...You want people to have a good laugh, and pat you on the head and think "oh, good ol hamilton. hes a funny chap".

Which is fine. but it isnt your town calling cardAre you sure; are you just seeing what you want to see or ignoring what you have seen?

What I bolded is a complete fabrication. You're either misreading me or trying to create a case on me from pure fantasy. You're too good of a player for the former, so...

The progression of events was as follows
-stating you were fine with a no kill, but would consider a vote on dip, or bona. but not ghug.I went there to tie the wagon; I have and had no desire to kill ghug

-a case was presented in which I laid out the reasons why dip could be scum

-you responded that you wanted to wait to see what vanity voters would do before reading my case at all

-your next move was to vote ghug

-your next move was to ask for who spirit would recruit

-your final move was to kill dip

to me this looks like you wanted ghug to die by way of the vanity voters. and when it didnt happen, instead of opting into your original no kill plan you killed dip.

if not to kill ghug, what did you want the vanity voters to be doing before reading my case? Get off the vanity votes and start to create a pressure-filled EOD. Did I direct anyone to go to a specific wagon?

I am personally good with the tie.

Should it look like no-kill will not win out and we start to coalesce, I'm not inclined to vote ghug, but Dip would be my choice. Or else Bona.

Leaning town: ghug, col7by, bozo, yoyo, brain
Unclear: haze
Lean darkly: bona, dip, spirit

It is just us; I don't want a mad scramble at the end so I will revert back to no-kill if I see it going badly for ghug.

##Vote ghug

You made it 3-3 here, but claimed you would go to no kill if things went bad for ghug. This makes it more likely things will go bad for ghug. and then you would be leaving his wagon to have no part in his actual death if you were sincere in your stated reason

your random decisions at end of days are often to do something weirdly provacative like self voting, or voting no kill, or voting a vanity wagon in a situation where voting wrong could allow mafia to gain a gun. ive seen you make these outlandish plays plenty.Certainly; it's chaotic and well-intentioned.

But what I havent seen is you use your vote to keep all wagons viable, especially not in a situation where you supposedly dont want to necessarily see anyone die at all I am not really seeing this and I wonder if you're reaching at something you hope i there

I was very excited to see you kill dip. I wanted dip to die, yes.

I think you are playing up the guilt of doing it as a performance here as ive already said. Your defense of your actions is to rely on the emotional appeal of making another mistake in the clutch. and doing so in a more overstated way than you do as town If that's your metric for me being scum, because I am actually upset with the results of my actions...well, I don't know. Should I have said nothing? That'd be kind of shitty. I am not sure you can qualify my reactions; you're not in my head. Maybe it's something in your style?

if dip was still alive, and the day was a tie; I would probably be voting dip and would perhaps never have even thought hamilton was actually looking for recruitment strategies, I perhaps would not have even thought of his end of day of being scummy at all.

I would have a POE of dip and Haze, probably still making cases on dip.

my POE now knowing that dip died is hamilton - haze and maybe yoyo because yoyo's posts are getting worse as time goes along. I see him softly buddying me, I see him producing nothing new; and im aware of his ability as mafia to coast.

Makes a series of posts calling mine nuanced, shading, performative, etc.

So the only three I could even use this study on was bozo, ghug, and hamilton. It just so happened all three failed the test as far as meeting their usual town numbers, and I blame the setup not the players for this anamoly. I think Hamilton is scummy without even needing to use this, but this is the initial reason I reread him.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vzLz4S5STmip0FoGpl4PwK-B8wodlVx4aE7YpImM-BQ/edit?usp=sharing

I guess now we hunt and hope we get super lucky with our daykills because we still have no info to go on. Someone could make the case that the kill of Dip was mafia motivated which implicates me as the final vote.

The use of self deprecation repeatedly as a tool, again you attempt to use your status as a victim of making the same ol mistakes into your shield. By talking about it more, you clearly think it is strategically sound to show remorse, or even to imply people should be making the case against you. You are mired in a guilt over something that no one is actually saying is a problem. The problem has always been the need to use remorse as a comparative tool than it has that you're even guilty of killing dip.

My theory is that...well, I kind of have two because that's the duality I have to live with, seeing both sides.

Writing this from the town mindset you would have just said what the theory was. Don't tell me how I would do something. I often put out a competing set of ideas; me writing them gives me the chance to think them throughThe reason this even here is performative- is the pause in your own writing to imply you are having a eureka moment within your own thinking.

To provide context, this below is you playing town in your most natural, mannered way.

I'll say that I think Sweet is probably town but is employing this weird strategy and I am unclear what the end goal is. I concur that we'll have to flip him a lot sooner unless we get some lucky scum slips from others before then.

Guts suggest to me that town include: Jamie, damo, chaqa, bunny, brain, balki, and I teeter on flavius.

That's me working to find my town before trying to sus out mafia. And I'll probably sheep chaqa.

From M90

A mark of Hamilton Brian town game is firstly identifying who the town actually is. I don't think so; if anything that might be a recent development after we've had the conversations about finding town first rather than hunting scumWhich he hasn't done this game, or has ever made an effort to actually do. Sharply, articulated, not a performance, not a dance, not dreaming aloud, just purely stated.

That kind of comes across as desperate opportunism. Why's that?

From M90
This is quite a solid match for your probing others this game but its sharper, it doesn't meander, and in between posts like this you aren't traveling around lists of 5 or 6 bodies hoping to keep piling up pretend o reads and pushes. This is like you actually care about the answer, which you don't in this current game. Again, don't state what I care and don't care about; the answers are important but they are far and few between

a) mafia spy does NOT recruit a strong player and instead recruits someone able to slip in and out of the game unseen; someone not prone to talking too much.

Why? Longevity. Play the quiet discreet game.

b) mafia recruits the known strong players

Why? Can twist the daily thread, create stories and narratives, can PR hunt well (in this case the other spies).

This is actually pretty great, and is one of the few posts I think could come from you being town because it might be genuine consideration about the motivations of two mafia teams as opposed to 1.

So which strategy wins that spy team the game? And is that the wrong question? Is the question for us as town more, how do we hunt when we have no info?

The first thing is that this question like many of your questions apologizes for asking the question because youre mafia, No, actually I am thinking, DON'T GIVE MAFIA ANY IDEASand you know that asking the question is already scummy. So you pad guilt into the post to seem like youre just bad town wanting to ruffle feathers.

Additionally, this unfortunately smudges your great previous commentary by once again trying to solicit advice for the mafia for best play strategy. Nothing in this question helps town, Maybeand offers no opinion of your own idea about strategyBecause unfortunately I do not have any ideas about strategy; I am ham-strung . Worse yet, this question is designed to bait someone into actually answering so that they look bad in the public eye for even having an opinion on the matter. Oh, would that be the result?This is a fishing expedition aimed at soliciting free advice for yourself, or a dossier on your scum opponents possible moves at best. I dont think town you really wonders this.

Alright then, time for the purity test. I don't see why anyone would object to answering this question.

If I were to recruit a player, my top three picks would be:
Add your name and please make the list alphabetical.

Brian: brain, bona, bozo

People watching on the god thread are probably laughing, saying, "Brian, you're going about it all wrong."

I originally had ghug in there, but with them travelling in southeast asia, I think that does present a bit of a detriment to coordinating. That is why I swapped them with bona.

This seems like a very open dialogue about the thought process you worked through when deciding whom to recruit. and it didnt occur to me until this last point that this is just simply your honest truth of how you decided to recruit bona or bozo.

and as for the why, the more transparent you are, the less likely anyone would really think you actually did this stuff. so its all fair game, and politically advantageous to actually share your thought process

So people that have played with me know that I do a lot of random writing of ideas trying to sort myself out and clarify my thinking. In the past few recent games we've attempted lists as a way of sorting things out like who players would kill, night kill, etc. I thought my attempts here would generate some of that but it didn't take.

If y'all see that as me soliciting advice for recruiting, etc...then let the votes speak for themselves. I will just say Brain created a case on me that does not hold water and I'm done with it. I don't know if the amount of effort Brain put into these cases on myself, Haze, and Dip (town) is a scum ploy or not.

Please don't format like this. It's very difficult to follow.

[ghug]

my pet theory is brain made a mafia code post about the Olympics at the start of day today, and I pointed out it was a really obviously scummy post even before colby came in and tried to treat it like it was totally normal

Why is the colby reply included lol

because colby is the nexus of all scum, and his waltzing in just sealed it as completely strange and out of pocket for both of you, I saw it before then, everyone should see that as a little weird that he played off it like that.

I love a good conspiracy theory lol

People talk about the Olympics.

[ghug]

I was really expecting to have been recruited. Here’s an interesting thing to think about town:
If a spy team failed to recruit someone last phase, what are the practical chances it was an enemy spy vs. competing recruit? Who are the likely safe recruits, in the eyes of spies?

Trying to figure out if your team is behind now?