M 1029: The webMafia Olympics game 1 SPY VS SPY

[dargorygel]

##NT FRM GM

Vt Cnt 2.04

bozotheclown (2) Col7by, SpiritoftheRadio (end)
Hamilton Brian (2) ghug, brainbomb (end)
No-Kill (1) Yoyoyozo
SpiritoftheRadio (1) Bonatogether
Brainbomb (1) Hamilton Brain

Unvote: Haze with a Z

All have met minimum posting, all but Haze have adequately voted.

Just under 6.5 hours left in the day.

Not one is set to die.

Codes for spying seem to have been of two sorts, during the Cold War. Either simple things (like omitting vowels, see above) or complex things that can be solved only by the likes of Benedict Cumberbatch or a computer.

Writing that only appears at midnight, decoder rings, and templates were rarely used.

[ghug]

At this point in the game it’s hard for me to make reads based on anyone’s past play experience since I’ve played with so few people.
Ghug day one felt normal based on lat game but day 2 off so that is why I think recruit
HB died D1 first game but was posting a lot then as town but I think that would be an overstep to assume means they’re town again
Yoyo is posting seldomly like the first game they were town with a few more jokes in there. The no-kill logic today after not wanting to yesterday is throwing me through a loop.
Bona went on sprees of posting lasting game and has done it less this game so I could see them as a scum whether og ir recruit not sure
I believe everyone else I have not played with before so I’m really just going on vibes.
I think that today I would be most comfortable with a yoyo vote based on people I’ve played with or bozo from people I haven’t played with

Why do you think I'm different today?

I think that you have been more MIA and have not double downed on opinion like you did for no-kill the day before

Yeah I'm not super active. That's my life circumstances though. Anyone will tell you I talk a lot as scum.

The no kill was an easy opinion to hold strongly because it's based in known facts. Scumhunting in a game where nobody had teammates for the only vote is harder. I think I'm doing it anyway, but you're welcome to disagree.

I was worried you were just parroting other people, so I'm glad you actually had an answer.

[ghug]

Ok I was hoping y'all would just get this but we're not playing mafia.

Several people have already noted that town is doomed. That's true if we play it like mafia, and it's kind of a feature of the setup. The way town wins this game is by pitting the mafia against each other. Townies can also win this game by being recruited, but my reading of the rules has always been that playing to this outcome runs contrary to playing to one's own win condition (the spectrum of positions on this point kind of undermines the game's whole conceit, which is one of the reasons I'm personally not a fan of recruitment games).

If we kill a townie today, we have less ability to effect our will as the game progresses further. If we kill scum today, there's no counterweight to the other scum team. We go into tomorrow in what's basically a brand new 7v2 mafia game in which we have no PRs, scum has twice as much power as a normal mafia team to reduce the number disparity as long as their leader is alive, and every new recruit is going to lack connections to their teammates. Town is unlikely to win that game. We need the Mafia team to be threats to each other.

We normally kill D1 for two reasons, neither of which applies here:
1. To start getting voting information. Bozo has already pointed out that this doesn't work when the mafia don't have teammates. I'm a little bit shocked Bona didn't notice this.
2. Because our numbers advantage will only get worse over time. This isn't applicable here for the reasons I laid out above.

ghug, how much did your thinking evolve from this starting point?

If you strongly felt it, why leave your original stance to cast a kill vote?

Would this not cause you to consider bona mafia if they, presumably, didn't notice this?

Did you consider bona mafia then? If so, do you still consider them mafia? If not, what changed?

I didn't want to die and EoD was at 4 in the morning. I wrongly figured that there'd be normal EoD movement without me and that it would be towards killing a person because only three of us wanted to no kill, so I figured I'd make my vote count.

I thought Bona was being bad yesterday but that he was a little too proud of it, which led me to believe he was now likely town playing poorly than scum. Most people didn't want to do what I believe was optimal, and scumreading based on mechanical opinions is usually a bad idea period.

[Hamilton Brian]

If it is 5-2-2, and we hit one of the original mafia D2, the winning paths for town, without the mafia interfering with each other at night, are:

D2: DK m1-1
N2: m2 NK town
D3: DK m2-1
N3: no NK
D4: DK m1-2
N4: m2 NK town
D5: DK m2-2

D2: DK m1-1
N2: m2 recruits town
D3: DK m2-1
N3: m2 NK town
D4: DK m2-2
N4: no NK
D5: DK m2-3
N5: m1 NK town
D6: DK m1-2

Either way there is no margin for error.

Extend this to another miskill

D2 miskill; presume 7:1:1 became 5:2:2, now becomes 4:2:2

We enter D3 with 2:3:3. Definitely a bigger pool of mafia for town to successfully hit.

[ghug]

Why do you think I'm different today?

I think that you have been more MIA and have not double downed on opinion like you did for no-kill the day before

Not to defend ghug when he can easily do it himself, but he is on holiday. I know I would not have attempted to play mafia when I was in SE Asia; I only had wifi at certain points and didn't have a data plan.

I do have data but I'm mostly playing at dining and drinking establishments or the hotel room. I probably wouldn't have played a full game, but I've been known to make poor decisions and I missed the last one.

I'm in Cambodia now. Got shit to see.

[ghug]

I think the mafia will correctly see town as the least threatening team starting tomorrow, regardless of how many people are still alive, and prioritize killing each other. The 7-2 game, we'll be the only targets. A 6-2-2 game is better than a 5-2-2 game. There's no useful analysis to be done with the vote counts. I just don't see the upside of killing today.

If we're following your logic here, wouldn't it be better for town players to still remain in a "no kill" state?

Gotta give them opportunities to find and kill each other.

[ghug]

If it is 5-2-2, and we hit one of the original mafia D2, the winning paths for town, without the mafia interfering with each other at night, are:

D2: DK m1-1
N2: m2 NK town
D3: DK m2-1
N3: no NK
D4: DK m1-2
N4: m2 NK town
D5: DK m2-2

D2: DK m1-1
N2: m2 recruits town
D3: DK m2-1
N3: m2 NK town
D4: DK m2-2
N4: no NK
D5: DK m2-3
N5: m1 NK town
D6: DK m1-2

Either way there is no margin for error.

Extend this to another miskill

D2 miskill; presume 7:1:1 became 5:2:2, now becomes 4:2:2

We enter D3 with 2:3:3. Definitely a bigger pool of mafia for town to successfully hit.

I think it's better if there's imbalance and we can hunt the big team, but yeah.

[Hamilton Brian]

Gotta give them opportunities to find and kill each other.

What, through night kills?

Yeah, no kill doesn't benefit town.

Odds improve of them trying to recruit one another giving us a chance; slim but still chance.

[Hamilton Brian]

Bozo and Spirit votes read OMGUS.

[Hamilton Brian]

Spirit's vote on bozo uses absolutes in defence.

[Hamilton Brian]

I am still town, and I think Col7by, Hamilton, Haze, and Yoyoyozo are probably still town.

That means the mafia would be Bonatogether, brainbomb, ghug, and SpiritoftheRadio if the mafia recruited successfully.

Well I want to see how things change starting day 2. I don't think establishing my thoughts on picks helps anyone before I can get a feel for if they are acting like they are mafia now. I can always say later, read it as a hedge if you want, I just want to not influence people into not making the mistakes I'm looking out for.

I will say that the main scum read that got worse over night as opposed to better (HB and ghug are still scummy to me, but they did feel better in the night), is Colby. I don't like how he was kind of pushing brain and not pushing him. I felt he was pretty scummy on day 1 and would have a decent chance of being OG spy. Dunno if he'd be picked by a spy, but I'd like to just start off with a ##vote col7by

He is being only kind of quiet, and just showing up to agree with people or ask about bb's playstyle. It just feels like he's nervous and trying to remain in the conversation but not knowing how to play it, feels unnatural. Feels like someone kind of new rolling scum. Although I don't really know how new he is, but he feels that way.

i feel like we've played before but i don't remember how you play. what is up with radio man

##VOTE brain so I can be the only one who hasn't been voted today.

These distancing posts showing up on D2 make me think SpiritoftheRadio recruited Bonatogether and brainbomb recruited ghug.

Bozo's vote for spirit lacked context but the above is a window into the thinking.

[ghug]

Gotta give them opportunities to find and kill each other.

What, through night kills?

Yeah, no kill doesn't benefit town.

Odds improve of them trying to recruit one another giving us a chance; slim but still chance.

Through voting. Multi mafia is a mess for town, but right now one scumteam can hunt the other one like it's a normal game.

[ghug]

Spirit's vote on bozo uses absolutes in defence.

What does this mean?

[Hamilton Brian]

Bozo, your main reason for targeting me is bona made a mile per minute comment about me, then you theorized I picked bona as a recruit. I gotta say honestly, he would have been the absolute last on my list. He both lacks the capacity to stay alive reliably (I should know, i got him killed day 1 last time I was scum), strategize effectively, and I try to be cordial with folks but I'd rather skewer my left nut with a martini umbrella than invite someone with a posting style like bona's into a private mafia chat. Literally everyone would have had more perks to me than him.

You were the person I thought would be most likely picked since you were the most widely town read day 1 and also aren't an idiot. I said that when HB asked who I'd pick, and I pointed out how you wouldn't die until a nk happened, thinking I could bait someone who likes to play safe into picking you. I was wondering what you'd do when you finally showed up, and i gotta say I do think you're mafia. Your case against me is thin as they come, and you ended on me after stressing the importance of not making any errors going forward. No sense is being made there. You also paired brain and ghug together. BB is one of the more towny people around imo and you're kind of just taking ghug and bona chaos posting to smear someone you think is easy to hit. You know HB is peculiar in his ways and likely isn't coming off me, and so you're pushing me since you think it can happen and you really don't care who we kill so long as it isn't your teammate or you. Thats the vibe I'm getting off you, and it is strong. I don't know if you're the OG spy, but you're definitely not on the up and up.

Bolded and underlined the absolute parts.

It reads as "you're right to vote me so I need to state myself to dissuade others from believing you."

[Hamilton Brian]

Another worry for me is the end votes on what, for now, is a tie and would result in No Kill.

[dargorygel]

Some fixin's and adjustin's


bozotheclown (2) Col7by, SpiritoftheRadio (end)
Hamilton Brian (2) ghug, brainbomb (end)
No-Kill (1) Yoyoyozo
Yoyoyozo (1) Bonatogether
SpiritoftheRadio (1) bozotheclown (end)
Brainbomb (1) Hamilton Brain

Unvote: Haze with a Z

[Hamilton Brian]

why would a one-man scum team ask for advise in the thread

This was associated with Brain making their case on me.

I don't see a mafia bona address a point like this; not countering lets the idea fester in other player's heads.

I think bona is town when they said this.

[Hamilton Brian]

If I had to make a choice between killing bona or haze, I think haze takes it.

They seem so open but evading the game.

[Hamilton Brian]

##Vote Yoyo

[Col7by]

why would a one-man scum team ask for advise in the thread

This was associated with Brain making their case on me.

I don't see a mafia bona address a point like this; not countering lets the idea fester in other player's heads.

I think bona is town when they said this.

I will def break a tie this round if there is one close