M 1029: The webMafia Olympics game 1 SPY VS SPY

[bozotheclown]

Explain why with words.

Did you think I was town yesterday?

You could have told me why I was wrong, but instead you tried to discredit me by suggesting that I am mafia, which is obviously not the case to anyone trying to determine my alignment.

When your assertion is that you're town, telling you why you're wrong is the same as suggesting you're mafia.

I'm asking you to explain your assertions on towniness.

I meant tell me why I was wrong about the 4 players I thought might be mafia. That was the post you reacted to by scum reading me.

[Hamilton Brian]

Ham, if you think Yoyo and Colby are the OG spies, why are you voting for Spirit?

What's the rush to change it? There's lots of D2 left. And lots of time to change my line of thinking.

What's it to you?

[Hamilton Brian]

And what's with your weird spacing? One line and you then have all this extra space in your post?

[ghug]

You could have told me why I was wrong, but instead you tried to discredit me by suggesting that I am mafia, which is obviously not the case to anyone trying to determine my alignment.

When your assertion is that you're town, telling you why you're wrong is the same as suggesting you're mafia.

I'm asking you to explain your assertions on towniness.

I meant tell me why I was wrong about the 4 players I thought might be mafia. That was the post you reacted to by scum reading me.

I'm town. I townread brain and bona. I've explained both.

I'm asking you to explain your reads, which you are steadfastly refusing to do.

[ghug]

Ham, if you think Yoyo and Colby are the OG spies, why are you voting for Spirit?

What's the rush to change it? There's lots of D2 left. And lots of time to change my line of thinking.

What's it to you?

You apparently think two people, neither of whom is a leading wagon, are the best people to kill today but aren't making an actual effort to kill them.

[ghug]

And what's with your weird spacing? One line and you then have all this extra space in your post?

This happens when someone has an avatar.

[Hamilton Brian]

Ham, if you think Yoyo and Colby are the OG spies, why are you voting for Spirit?

What's the rush to change it? There's lots of D2 left. And lots of time to change my line of thinking.

What's it to you?

You apparently think two people, neither of whom is a leading wagon, are the best people to kill today but aren't making an actual effort to kill them.

There's time? Not sure what kind of test you're trying to get me to take.

[ghug]

What's the rush to change it? There's lots of D2 left. And lots of time to change my line of thinking.

What's it to you?

You apparently think two people, neither of whom is a leading wagon, are the best people to kill today but aren't making an actual effort to kill them.

There's time? Not sure what kind of test you're trying to get me to take.

I'm not trying to get you to take any sort of test. Your behavior confuses me.

[Yoyoyozo]

I’m going to need you both to walk on the white line for me. Then afterwards we can Netflix and chill. Wall-e anyone?

[brainbomb]

Hi yoyo, do you like this game?

[SpiritoftheRadio]

I have been thinking for a bit, why wasn't I chosen to be mafia? I was a pretty townread person day 1. I haven't played in a while and maybe people didn't see me as particularly important, fine. I do have a history of living pretty long though, and on day 1 I felt like I didn't have a lot of scrutiny outside of HB and maybe ghug but even when I was pushing hard on him he was kind of just lukewarm on me as I recall. I feel like the main reasons are 1) bozo was just more town read and less loud and was just a more likely pick that mostly fit my demographic for a spy who wanted what I can provide. 2) HB had a small murder boner for me on day 1 and that went full mast on day 2 and they maybe saw that coming through the night and thought I'd be an easier miskill or a liability to recruit. Or 3) they thought I'd keep on Ghug like I was all day 1 and he would be an easy miskill they could slide onto without much effort. I feel like Hb, ghug, and I were in mutual conflict and would have been useful to keep as town for easy miskills. Brainbomb drilling haze and to some extent colby would also fit into this category.

Anyway, I am feeling like the answer to yoyo's question is meh. I feel like a lot of town is becoming more checked out due to kind of feeling like town's chance of winning is low and folks are waiting around to be recruited. I think we should probably vote ##vote end and get on with it. Ultimately, i still feel like Bozo is the best bet. I am less keen on HB since I feel like both his murder boner for brain and I are town on town, and I feel like he'd be a useful person to leave town since he goes for people and it is easy to slide onto people after he lays a foundation. I think that was evident from day 1, but also fits with his larger meta. I feel quite confident he was not recruited, not entirely convinced he couldn't be an OG spy but personally my read is coming down the other way. I feel pretty similarly about bona not being recruited because I don't see a whole lot of goodness coming from him being mafia when he could both easily be and generate a miskill since he just hops onto someone and comes off shifty for that. Yoyo isn't the worst kill ever but he is hard flexing his disengaged towny vibe. Harder to tell with colby and haze since they seem to float around, haze has gone on intense posting sessions, but colby drops and leaves consistently. The only person I feel pretty confident is town right now is brain, mostly because he seems like the kind of towny that wouldnt disengage even if he felt it from others. He'd be memeing more if he was evil and starting shit for his own amusement. Unless fatherhood has cooled him, which i don't believe.

At this point, I'm mostly just down to kill bozo. Colby would also be acceptable. Ghug I think has some weird stuff going on this game, his 180 in behavior today could be a turn but could also be trying to seem that way. I feel like the heat I gave him on day 1 may have been enough to make people steer clear of recruiting him. I also think people would maybe steer clear of recruiting him for fear of double recruiting him. Feel the same way about BB. I feel good about bozo being a good chance of being an OG or a recruit, 2nd most likely to me for both is colby. That's why they're my tops. Upon reflection, my gut still says bozo came out scumming on me hard because he could have been trying to protect colby who I was voting for. I feel like his read of me came out of nowhere and was for particularly bad reasons. It is possible colby was pushing for a early day bus of bozo and now has been sticking with it because bozo has been a top wagon and he knows he'd look really sus for coming off it. Not supremely confident in that connection because I don't have a good read on if that's how colby would act, although his pointing out of him voting for bozo seemed like he wasn't aware bussing is a very normal strategy here. Only thing I do feel like I know something is off about bozo. Thats why we end on the boy.

[ghug]

I have been thinking for a bit, why wasn't I chosen to be mafia? I was a pretty townread person day 1. I haven't played in a while and maybe people didn't see me as particularly important, fine. I do have a history of living pretty long though, and on day 1 I felt like I didn't have a lot of scrutiny outside of HB and maybe ghug but even when I was pushing hard on him he was kind of just lukewarm on me as I recall. I feel like the main reasons are 1) bozo was just more town read and less loud and was just a more likely pick that mostly fit my demographic for a spy who wanted what I can provide. 2) HB had a small murder boner for me on day 1 and that went full mast on day 2 and they maybe saw that coming through the night and thought I'd be an easier miskill or a liability to recruit. Or 3) they thought I'd keep on Ghug like I was all day 1 and he would be an easy miskill they could slide onto without much effort. I feel like Hb, ghug, and I were in mutual conflict and would have been useful to keep as town for easy miskills. Brainbomb drilling haze and to some extent colby would also fit into this category.

Anyway, I am feeling like the answer to yoyo's question is meh. I feel like a lot of town is becoming more checked out due to kind of feeling like town's chance of winning is low and folks are waiting around to be recruited. I think we should probably vote ##vote end and get on with it. Ultimately, i still feel like Bozo is the best bet. I am less keen on HB since I feel like both his murder boner for brain and I are town on town, and I feel like he'd be a useful person to leave town since he goes for people and it is easy to slide onto people after he lays a foundation. I think that was evident from day 1, but also fits with his larger meta. I feel quite confident he was not recruited, not entirely convinced he couldn't be an OG spy but personally my read is coming down the other way. I feel pretty similarly about bona not being recruited because I don't see a whole lot of goodness coming from him being mafia when he could both easily be and generate a miskill since he just hops onto someone and comes off shifty for that. Yoyo isn't the worst kill ever but he is hard flexing his disengaged towny vibe. Harder to tell with colby and haze since they seem to float around, haze has gone on intense posting sessions, but colby drops and leaves consistently. The only person I feel pretty confident is town right now is brain, mostly because he seems like the kind of towny that wouldnt disengage even if he felt it from others. He'd be memeing more if he was evil and starting shit for his own amusement. Unless fatherhood has cooled him, which i don't believe.

At this point, I'm mostly just down to kill bozo. Colby would also be acceptable. Ghug I think has some weird stuff going on this game, his 180 in behavior today could be a turn but could also be trying to seem that way. I feel like the heat I gave him on day 1 may have been enough to make people steer clear of recruiting him. I also think people would maybe steer clear of recruiting him for fear of double recruiting him. Feel the same way about BB. I feel good about bozo being a good chance of being an OG or a recruit, 2nd most likely to me for both is colby. That's why they're my tops. Upon reflection, my gut still says bozo came out scumming on me hard because he could have been trying to protect colby who I was voting for. I feel like his read of me came out of nowhere and was for particularly bad reasons. It is possible colby was pushing for a early day bus of bozo and now has been sticking with it because bozo has been a top wagon and he knows he'd look really sus for coming off it. Not supremely confident in that connection because I don't have a good read on if that's how colby would act, although his pointing out of him voting for bozo seemed like he wasn't aware bussing is a very normal strategy here. Only thing I do feel like I know something is off about bozo. Thats why we end on the boy.

This has messy town vibes.

[Col7by]

At this point in the game it’s hard for me to make reads based on anyone’s past play experience since I’ve played with so few people.
Ghug day one felt normal based on lat game but day 2 off so that is why I think recruit
HB died D1 first game but was posting a lot then as town but I think that would be an overstep to assume means they’re town again
Yoyo is posting seldomly like the first game they were town with a few more jokes in there. The no-kill logic today after not wanting to yesterday is throwing me through a loop.
Bona went on sprees of posting lasting game and has done it less this game so I could see them as a scum whether og ir recruit not sure
I believe everyone else I have not played with before so I’m really just going on vibes.
I think that today I would be most comfortable with a yoyo vote based on people I’ve played with or bozo from people I haven’t played with

[ghug]

At this point in the game it’s hard for me to make reads based on anyone’s past play experience since I’ve played with so few people.
Ghug day one felt normal based on lat game but day 2 off so that is why I think recruit
HB died D1 first game but was posting a lot then as town but I think that would be an overstep to assume means they’re town again
Yoyo is posting seldomly like the first game they were town with a few more jokes in there. The no-kill logic today after not wanting to yesterday is throwing me through a loop.
Bona went on sprees of posting lasting game and has done it less this game so I could see them as a scum whether og ir recruit not sure
I believe everyone else I have not played with before so I’m really just going on vibes.
I think that today I would be most comfortable with a yoyo vote based on people I’ve played with or bozo from people I haven’t played with

Why do you think I'm different today?

[Hamilton Brian]

I am coming around to Brain having been recruited.

[Col7by]

At this point in the game it’s hard for me to make reads based on anyone’s past play experience since I’ve played with so few people.
Ghug day one felt normal based on lat game but day 2 off so that is why I think recruit
HB died D1 first game but was posting a lot then as town but I think that would be an overstep to assume means they’re town again
Yoyo is posting seldomly like the first game they were town with a few more jokes in there. The no-kill logic today after not wanting to yesterday is throwing me through a loop.
Bona went on sprees of posting lasting game and has done it less this game so I could see them as a scum whether og ir recruit not sure
I believe everyone else I have not played with before so I’m really just going on vibes.
I think that today I would be most comfortable with a yoyo vote based on people I’ve played with or bozo from people I haven’t played with

Why do you think I'm different today?

I think that you have been more MIA and have not double downed on opinion like you did for no-kill the day before

[Hamilton Brian]

Ok I was hoping y'all would just get this but we're not playing mafia.

Several people have already noted that town is doomed. That's true if we play it like mafia, and it's kind of a feature of the setup. The way town wins this game is by pitting the mafia against each other. Townies can also win this game by being recruited, but my reading of the rules has always been that playing to this outcome runs contrary to playing to one's own win condition (the spectrum of positions on this point kind of undermines the game's whole conceit, which is one of the reasons I'm personally not a fan of recruitment games).

If we kill a townie today, we have less ability to effect our will as the game progresses further. If we kill scum today, there's no counterweight to the other scum team. We go into tomorrow in what's basically a brand new 7v2 mafia game in which we have no PRs, scum has twice as much power as a normal mafia team to reduce the number disparity as long as their leader is alive, and every new recruit is going to lack connections to their teammates. Town is unlikely to win that game. We need the Mafia team to be threats to each other.

We normally kill D1 for two reasons, neither of which applies here:
1. To start getting voting information. Bozo has already pointed out that this doesn't work when the mafia don't have teammates. I'm a little bit shocked Bona didn't notice this.
2. Because our numbers advantage will only get worse over time. This isn't applicable here for the reasons I laid out above.

ghug, how much did your thinking evolve from this starting point?

If you strongly felt it, why leave your original stance to cast a kill vote?

Would this not cause you to consider bona mafia if they, presumably, didn't notice this?

Did you consider bona mafia then? If so, do you still consider them mafia? If not, what changed?

[Hamilton Brian]

At this point in the game it’s hard for me to make reads based on anyone’s past play experience since I’ve played with so few people.
Ghug day one felt normal based on lat game but day 2 off so that is why I think recruit
HB died D1 first game but was posting a lot then as town but I think that would be an overstep to assume means they’re town again
Yoyo is posting seldomly like the first game they were town with a few more jokes in there. The no-kill logic today after not wanting to yesterday is throwing me through a loop.
Bona went on sprees of posting lasting game and has done it less this game so I could see them as a scum whether og ir recruit not sure
I believe everyone else I have not played with before so I’m really just going on vibes.
I think that today I would be most comfortable with a yoyo vote based on people I’ve played with or bozo from people I haven’t played with

Why do you think I'm different today?

I think that you have been more MIA and have not double downed on opinion like you did for no-kill the day before

Not to defend ghug when he can easily do it himself, but he is on holiday. I know I would not have attempted to play mafia when I was in SE Asia; I only had wifi at certain points and didn't have a data plan.

[Hamilton Brian]

##Vote Brain

[Hamilton Brian]

I think the mafia will correctly see town as the least threatening team starting tomorrow, regardless of how many people are still alive, and prioritize killing each other. The 7-2 game, we'll be the only targets. A 6-2-2 game is better than a 5-2-2 game. There's no useful analysis to be done with the vote counts. I just don't see the upside of killing today.

If we're following your logic here, wouldn't it be better for town players to still remain in a "no kill" state?