M 1029: The webMafia Olympics game 1 SPY VS SPY

[Haze with a Z]

this game has higher than usual paranoia levels

trying to put things into terms i can think in, this game was essentially 'one random person dies, and there's two mafia teams that get to pick their second members'.

do we think scum changed who they were choosing based on d1? i think only if they thought someone was immaculately positioned (relative to themselves?) does d1 effect the picks. probably the recruit pool can be best discerned by who the original scum thinks would survive and (something that makes it difficult) not be recruited by the other team.

That sounds like a good explanation tbh so yes I do end up with the paranoia every can be spy now tbh

lmao? in any game anyone could be scum. what are you talking about?

Yes but not the townspeople. And I thought I was the only one under enough suspicion to be voted out tbh prob cause. I am reading too much brain

[Bonatogether]

That sounds like a good explanation tbh so yes I do end up with the paranoia every can be spy now tbh

lmao? in any game anyone could be scum. what are you talking about?

Yes but not the townspeople. And I thought I was the only one under enough suspicion to be voted out tbh prob cause. I am reading too much brain

???

[brainbomb]

Are you looking at things like size of thread or distributions at all?

So in answer to your question here are my steps for this process.

As said before step 1 is to take every mini game ever played and to paste it into an excel for day 1 stats.

Rule 1:
why day 1? This is a personal belief, and a hard and fast rule for me that Day 1 is the day in which the mafia are forced to play outside of their range more than other days. On days following day 1 the mafia start to settle better into a groove, gain more confidence and begin to speak more naturally. There are very few mafia players if any who can march through a day 1 without some statistical anomaly in one of their three major categories: words, posts, and words per post.

Rule 2:
A regular game has more posts on day 1, has more players on day 1, and presents totally different expectations than a mini game. So when trying to decipher if someone is behaving strangely in a mini game, it makes no sense to compare their mini game activity to a day 1 of a full sized game.

Mini games usually see 50% less of just about everything, posts, words, ect, but words per post may stay somewhat about in the same range.

Rule 3: In order to know what someone might look like as scum on day 1, you have to also know what they tend to do as town on day 1. but what happens when someone messes up the metadata with a crazy play. (And I hope this answers your question, as in what does brainbomb do if the data is messed up)

Take a look at kak town game data for a second:

kak.png (4.56 KiB) Viewed 414 times

If you notice there is a pretty major problem in trying to get his avg words per post. Namely, he has a game where day 1 he posted twice, driving up his words per post that day to 549. In another example he posts 8 times, at an even larger number of words per post at 684.

In order for the data to be accurate, these two instances have to be removed from the sample because they cause an unnatural outlier.

Rule 4: Creating player profiles and habits from this data set is subjective, because deciding what samples can and should be included is already going to be subjective. One might argue in the kak example that his two games where he posted massive words per post blocks, must be included in the sample to maintain data accuracy. And of course someone is entitled to make their own spreadsheet, make their own conclusions, and include ridiculous outliers as they see fit.

Rule 5: this is a tool to provoke considerations and should not be treated as a cheat sheet, factual, or more relevant than any other topic one might use to drive home a read on someone. People tend to ignore my posts, or say they lack evidence. And in a effort to inform myself and make better posts and have better reasons for what I think, I have turned to historical data and variances to help guide me in a direction.

Conclusion: the problem with all of this was that not enough of the players in this game have mini game data to actually present. I have only ever been scum in 1 game that was a mini and I subbed in late to that game, so even my own data doesnt exist. haze has never played a mini, colby has never been scum until possibly this game but I doubt even that, yoyo has only been scum once in a mini, bona has never been scum in a mini to my knowledge, but ill share the sheet for everyones perusal. and spirit has never been mafia in a mini.

So the only three I could even use this study on was bozo, ghug, and hamilton. It just so happened all three failed the test as far as meeting their usual town numbers, and I blame the setup not the players for this anamoly. I think Hamilton is scummy without even needing to use this, but this is the initial reason I reread him.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vzLz4S5STmip0FoGpl4PwK-B8wodlVx4aE7YpImM-BQ/edit?usp=sharing

[brainbomb]

So how does that factor into how I scumread someone?

A. are they scummy?

B. does their data indicate they are out of range with where they should be as town?

C. and if both A and B are true, then the case must be made.

D. Are they really good at staying within normal range of subject B?

E. If D is true, then there needs to be some other way to review them than just A.

F. If None of the above are true other than just simply A, then it is also okay to look at someone else instead. Data can also point you to people that are just town and diving into D can become your own personal hero complex. If the players dont support it, and the data doesnt support it, and your own meta dives dont support it, then you might be an asshole.

[brainbomb]

I guess now we hunt and hope we get super lucky with our daykills because we still have no info to go on. Someone could make the case that the kill of Dip was mafia motivated which implicates me as the final vote.

The use of self deprecation repeatedly as a tool, again you attempt to use your status as a victim of making the same ol mistakes into your shield. By talking about it more, you clearly think it is strategically sound to show remorse, or even to imply people should be making the case against you. You are mired in a guilt over something that no one is actually saying is a problem. The problem has always been the need to use remorse as a comparative tool than it has that you're even guilty of killing dip.

My theory is that...well, I kind of have two because that's the duality I have to live with, seeing both sides.

Writing this from the town mindset you would have just said what the theory was. The reason this even here is performative- is the pause in your own writing to imply you are having a eureka moment within your own thinking.

To provide context, this below is you playing town in your most natural, mannered way.

I'll say that I think Sweet is probably town but is employing this weird strategy and I am unclear what the end goal is. I concur that we'll have to flip him a lot sooner unless we get some lucky scum slips from others before then.

Guts suggest to me that town include: Jamie, damo, chaqa, bunny, brain, balki, and I teeter on flavius.

That's me working to find my town before trying to sus out mafia. And I'll probably sheep chaqa.

From M90

A mark of Hamilton Brian town game is firstly identifying who the town actually is. Which he hasn't done this game, or has ever made an effort to actually do. Sharply, articulated, not a performance, not a dance, not dreaming aloud, just purely stated.

That kind of comes across as desperate opportunism. Why's that?

From M90
This is quite a solid match for your probing others this game but its sharper, it doesn't meander, and in between posts like this you aren't traveling around lists of 5 or 6 bodies hoping to keep piling up pretend o reads and pushes. This is like you actually care about the answer, which you don't in this current game.

a) mafia spy does NOT recruit a strong player and instead recruits someone able to slip in and out of the game unseen; someone not prone to talking too much.

Why? Longevity. Play the quiet discreet game.

b) mafia recruits the known strong players

Why? Can twist the daily thread, create stories and narratives, can PR hunt well (in this case the other spies).

This is actually pretty great, and is one of the few posts I think could come from you being town because it might be genuine consideration about the motivations of two mafia teams as opposed to 1.

So which strategy wins that spy team the game? And is that the wrong question? Is the question for us as town more, how do we hunt when we have no info?

The first thing is that this question like many of your questions apologizes for asking the question because youre mafia, and you know that asking the question is already scummy. So you pad guilt into the post to seem like youre just bad town wanting to ruffle feathers.

Additionally, this unfortunately smudges your great previous commentary by once again trying to solicit advice for the mafia for best play strategy. Nothing in this question helps town, and offers no opinion of your own idea about strategy. Worse yet, this question is designed to bait someone into actually answering so that they look bad in the public eye for even having an opinion on the matter. This is a fishing expedition aimed at soliciting free advice for yourself, or a dossier on your scum opponents possible moves at best. I dont think town you really wonders this.

[brainbomb]

##vote hamilton

[Hamilton Brian]

I really do love the effort you put into this, no matter how incorrect of a conclusion you're led to. I get its earnestness, almost an evangelical zeal to it.

[Hamilton Brian]

Let's play a game of Probable Pairs.

I'll do it as OG-recruit.

For the deffo nots: ghug-yoyo, brain-ghug, haze-bona

Brain-Haze
Ghug-bozo
Ghug-Spirit
Spirit-Bona

But then throw all that out when considering that the probable play from OGs was to not communicate much at all. Col7by, bozo, and yoyo in the lower third today. Bona, bozo, yoyo from N1. Yoyo, Co7by, and bona from the D1.

Why? Because a lot of talking gets one to stick one's neck out. Yoyo and Col7by as the OGs?

[Yoyoyozo]

Let's play a game of Probable Pairs.

I'll do it as OG-recruit.

For the deffo nots: ghug-yoyo, brain-ghug, haze-bona

Brain-Haze
Ghug-bozo
Ghug-Spirit
Spirit-Bona

But then throw all that out when considering that the probable play from OGs was to not communicate much at all. Col7by, bozo, and yoyo in the lower third today. Bona, bozo, yoyo from N1. Yoyo, Co7by, and bona from the D1.

Why? Because a lot of talking gets one to stick one's neck out. Yoyo and Col7by as the OGs?

If I were the OG spy I would have immediately recruited ghug, and I’ve made that very clear. Why is me and ghug the first definitely not for you?

[Hamilton Brian]

So using that as a metric, Probable Pairs with yoyo and col7by.

Yoyo-ghug?
Yoyo-bona?
col7by-bozo?
col7by-spirit?

[Hamilton Brian]

Let's play a game of Probable Pairs.

I'll do it as OG-recruit.

For the deffo nots: ghug-yoyo, brain-ghug, haze-bona

Brain-Haze
Ghug-bozo
Ghug-Spirit
Spirit-Bona

But then throw all that out when considering that the probable play from OGs was to not communicate much at all. Col7by, bozo, and yoyo in the lower third today. Bona, bozo, yoyo from N1. Yoyo, Co7by, and bona from the D1.


Why? Because a lot of talking gets one to stick one's neck out. Yoyo and Col7by as the OGs?

If I were the OG spy I would have immediately recruited ghug, and I’ve made that very clear. Why is me and ghug the first definitely not for you?

There was something I read from either N1 or D2. I'll have to go back, but you'll see when I was amending my thinking, I did put you and ghug together.

[Hamilton Brian]

##vote no kill

##vote yoyo

when does the no-kill stop? scum will never voluntarily give us information. town has to act independently, and by the time some scum member outs to accuse another or to nk another, town will be like 2 people and it'll be gg. town needs to step boldly forward, even if unsteadily

You guys are making it too easy to figure out who was recruited.

What do you mean here? What are you implying?

[Hamilton Brian]

I'd probably recruit Yoyo.

Yoyo, this was the post that led me to assume that there wouldn't be a likely pairing of you.

[Col7by]

I feel like most arguments today have convinced me of possibilities for a recruit but with the goal being of getting an OG out today I’m still leaning bozo on this. I think yoyo could be a possibility but I just didn’t agree with their gameplay last round either and think they were town then therefore being town now

[Hamilton Brian]

Which conversations?

[Col7by]

Which conversations?

Is this to me? If so what part?

[brainbomb]

I feel like the only people who even acknowledge or read my posts are the people im scumreading.

[Yoyoyozo]

I'd probably recruit Yoyo.

Yoyo, this was the post that led me to assume that there wouldn't be a likely pairing of you.

Can you elaborate? Are you suggesting that ghug wouldn’t say this as a spy? But then you quote me says that everyone is being too obvious. There’s a few logic paths that you’re crossing over that may need to be clarified before I’m able to understand what you’re getting at. Are you saying that ghug wouldn’t recruit me as a spy because it’s too obvious? If I were the OG spy, ghug wouldn’t have a choice. Or are you saying that I’m above doing some kind of WIFOM tactic that involves me buddying ghug? I certainly wouldn’t put it past me.

[brainbomb]

Alright then, time for the purity test. I don't see why anyone would object to answering this question.

If I were to recruit a player, my top three picks would be:
Add your name and please make the list alphabetical.

Brian: brain, bona, bozo

People watching on the god thread are probably laughing, saying, "Brian, you're going about it all wrong."

I originally had ghug in there, but with them travelling in southeast asia, I think that does present a bit of a detriment to coordinating. That is why I swapped them with bona.

This seems like a very open dialogue about the thought process you worked through when deciding whom to recruit. and it didnt occur to me until this last point that this is just simply your honest truth of how you decided to recruit bona or bozo.

[brainbomb]

and as for the why, the more transparent you are, the less likely anyone would really think you actually did this stuff. so its all fair game, and politically advantageous to actually share your thought process