M 1029: The webMafia Olympics game 1 SPY VS SPY

[Yoyoyozo]

You were the one that suggested that every day is essentially a new game. Why wouldn’t you re-elavuate what the optimum strategy is based on new information and circumstances?

Can you explain the point of sleeping?

After dealing with my niece and nephew the past week, I’m almost certain it’s to create a safe space from going completely insane.

I could be dead wrong though.

[Yoyoyozo]

It's rhetorical, but if you think there's an actual answer, you're welcome to give it.

Why are you advocating this today after being against it yesterday?

You were the one that suggested that every day is essentially a new game. Why wouldn’t you re-elavuate what the optimum strategy is based on new information and circumstances?

Today is a new game, but I already had almost all of the information I do now when I evaluated the strategy yesterday. Tomorrow won't be an entirely new game, because there are mafia teams now.

There’s very little chance you calculated the strategy to the endgame including all of the possibilities. So like a chess engine the best move changes depending on what happens during the game.

[Yoyoyozo]

Yikes yikes yikes. I’m not that unaware. I need some sleep

[brainbomb]

##vote hamilton

[brainbomb]

Haze is still mafia but im fairly certain I just didnt articulate why very well. Still between haze and ham as my two preferred votes

[ghug]

You were the one that suggested that every day is essentially a new game. Why wouldn’t you re-elavuate what the optimum strategy is based on new information and circumstances?

Today is a new game, but I already had almost all of the information I do now when I evaluated the strategy yesterday. Tomorrow won't be an entirely new game, because there are mafia teams now.

There’s very little chance you calculated the strategy to the endgame including all of the possibilities. So like a chess engine the best move changes depending on what happens during the game.

No, I did calculate the strategy to here though since the only information I've gotten all game is that Dip was town.

[bozotheclown]

Bozo, would you say you had a rather lacklustre day 1 by your standards?

You were kind of present. Ok posts. But then there was a 90 minute gap between your last and next to last posts on Day 1.

Some (me) would say you are not invested in the game.

Isn't that your mafia meta?

I would not say that, but I can understand why you might.

I try not to look disinterested as mafia.

[bozotheclown]

##VOTE brain so I can be the only one who hasn't been voted today.

##VOTE ghug

[bozotheclown]

Today is a new game, but I already had almost all of the information I do now when I evaluated the strategy yesterday. Tomorrow won't be an entirely new game, because there are mafia teams now.

There’s very little chance you calculated the strategy to the endgame including all of the possibilities. So like a chess engine the best move changes depending on what happens during the game.

No, I did calculate the strategy to here though since the only information I've gotten all game is that Dip was town.

So what is the best option today?

[bozotheclown]

It's rhetorical, but if you think there's an actual answer, you're welcome to give it.

Why are you advocating this today after being against it yesterday?

You were the one that suggested that every day is essentially a new game. Why wouldn’t you re-elavuate what the optimum strategy is based on new information and circumstances?

Today is a new game, but I already had almost all of the information I do now when I evaluated the strategy yesterday. Tomorrow won't be an entirely new game, because there are mafia teams now.

How do you know there are mafia teams now?

[ghug]

There’s very little chance you calculated the strategy to the endgame including all of the possibilities. So like a chess engine the best move changes depending on what happens during the game.

No, I did calculate the strategy to here though since the only information I've gotten all game is that Dip was town.

So what is the best option today?

I think we treat this like a normal day one and start trying to kill people to see what happens.

[ghug]

You were the one that suggested that every day is essentially a new game. Why wouldn’t you re-elavuate what the optimum strategy is based on new information and circumstances?

Today is a new game, but I already had almost all of the information I do now when I evaluated the strategy yesterday. Tomorrow won't be an entirely new game, because there are mafia teams now.

How do you know there are mafia teams now?

I'm assuming the worst, and there's almost certainly at least one, which is enough for my point to hold. Things are rosier if they targeted each other, obviously

[bozotheclown]

I am still town, and I think Col7by, Hamilton, Haze, and Yoyoyozo are probably still town.

That means the mafia would be Bonatogether, brainbomb, ghug, and SpiritoftheRadio if the mafia recruited successfully.

I think that's a bit of a hedge on your part though Spirit. What's the need to wait. I feel like things are super quiet and will remain so. If this was a recent game we'd be wanting to DK the lurkers and the quiets.

Well I want to see how things change starting day 2. I don't think establishing my thoughts on picks helps anyone before I can get a feel for if they are acting like they are mafia now. I can always say later, read it as a hedge if you want, I just want to not influence people into not making the mistakes I'm looking out for.

I will say that the main scum read that got worse over night as opposed to better (HB and ghug are still scummy to me, but they did feel better in the night), is Colby. I don't like how he was kind of pushing brain and not pushing him. I felt he was pretty scummy on day 1 and would have a decent chance of being OG spy. Dunno if he'd be picked by a spy, but I'd like to just start off with a ##vote col7by

He is being only kind of quiet, and just showing up to agree with people or ask about bb's playstyle. It just feels like he's nervous and trying to remain in the conversation but not knowing how to play it, feels unnatural. Feels like someone kind of new rolling scum. Although I don't really know how new he is, but he feels that way.

i feel like we've played before but i don't remember how you play. what is up with radio man

##VOTE brain so I can be the only one who hasn't been voted today.

These distancing posts showing up on D2 make me think SpiritoftheRadio recruited Bonatogether and brainbomb recruited ghug.

[bozotheclown]

No, I did calculate the strategy to here though since the only information I've gotten all game is that Dip was town.

So what is the best option today?

I think we treat this like a normal day one and start trying to kill people to see what happens.

I think the no-kill argument from D1 still applies to D2, which is one reason why I did not think that was the way to go, even if it might have statistically been the best chance for town.

[bozotheclown]

##VOTE SpiritoftheRadio

[bozotheclown]

Alright then, time for the purity test. I don't see why anyone would object to answering this question.

If I were to recruit a player, my top three picks would be:
Add your name and please make the list alphabetical.

Brian: brain, bona, bozo

People watching on the god thread are probably laughing, saying, "Brian, you're going about it all wrong."

I originally had ghug in there, but with them travelling in southeast asia, I think that does present a bit of a detriment to coordinating. That is why I swapped them with bona.

I would have recruited ghug.

[bozotheclown]

If it is 5-2-2, and we hit one of the original mafia D2, the winning paths for town, without the mafia interfering with each other at night, are:

D2: DK m1-1
N2: m2 NK town
D3: DK m2-1
N3: no NK
D4: DK m1-2
N4: m2 NK town
D5: DK m2-2

D2: DK m1-1
N2: m2 recruits town
D3: DK m2-1
N3: m2 NK town
D4: DK m2-2
N4: no NK
D5: DK m2-3
N5: m1 NK town
D6: DK m1-2

Either way there is no margin for error.

[bozotheclown]

##END

[SpiritoftheRadio]

Bozo, your main reason for targeting me is bona made a mile per minute comment about me, then you theorized I picked bona as a recruit. I gotta say honestly, he would have been the absolute last on my list. He both lacks the capacity to stay alive reliably (I should know, i got him killed day 1 last time I was scum), strategize effectively, and I try to be cordial with folks but I'd rather skewer my left nut with a martini umbrella than invite someone with a posting style like bona's into a private mafia chat. Literally everyone would have had more perks to me than him.

You were the person I thought would be most likely picked since you were the most widely town read day 1 and also aren't an idiot. I said that when HB asked who I'd pick, and I pointed out how you wouldn't die until a nk happened, thinking I could bait someone who likes to play safe into picking you. I was wondering what you'd do when you finally showed up, and i gotta say I do think you're mafia. Your case against me is thin as they come, and you ended on me after stressing the importance of not making any errors going forward. No sense is being made there. You also paired brain and ghug together. BB is one of the more towny people around imo and you're kind of just taking ghug and bona chaos posting to smear someone you think is easy to hit. You know HB is peculiar in his ways and likely isn't coming off me, and so you're pushing me since you think it can happen and you really don't care who we kill so long as it isn't your teammate or you. Thats the vibe I'm getting off you, and it is strong. I don't know if you're the OG spy, but you're definitely not on the up and up.

##vote bozo

My pressure vote on colby wasn't doing crap anyway because everyone is voting for someone different. I dont like the yoyo no kill, I dont like the way ghug is being a dirtbag. Bona and HB are being themselves but they dont spark joy. Haze is real defensive and I kind of feel he hasn't learned to just let heat wash over him yet. Colby still seems off to me, not really seeming genuine at all, and I think he would pick bozo. I could also see haze doing it.

I am pretty fine killing bozo, ghug, colby, haze or maybe Hb. In that order of how scummy I feel they are. Bozo and ghug seem the most notably different today and are the most likely to be turned since they clearly don't give a fuck. I am going to sleep on it. I like killing either of them but I am of the opinion it is more likely they are turned and not OG spies atm.

[ghug]

So what is the best option today?

I think we treat this like a normal day one and start trying to kill people to see what happens.

I think the no-kill argument from D1 still applies to D2, which is one reason why I did not think that was the way to go, even if it might have statistically been the best chance for town.

I disagree. Killing mafia now doesn't entirely eliminate a team, and VCA can be fruitful.

For a bunch of diplomacy players, this group is not great at considering the balance of power.