M 1029: The webMafia Olympics game 1 SPY VS SPY

[brainbomb]

What are you thinking, Yoyo? You must have some thoughts.

Is one of the spies Spirit? Or Brain? Or you?

still looking for only 1 spy

[Bonatogether]

also full disclosure i was in phil-a-delf-yah yesterday/day before so was busy

[brainbomb]

also full disclosure i was in phil-a-delf-yah yesterday/day before so was busy

did you eat a cheesesteak with chawqer

[Bonatogether]

The Case vs Hamilton the Brian


First off this is a discovery, and a series of alarming realizations. I ran through a huge data project that took up some of my time last night, where we needed to have every mini games day 1 posting habits in order to even consider accurate comparative stuff.

What I found was the last part of this so ill get this.

Here is Part 1.

I am personally good with the tie.

Should it look like no-kill will not win out and we start to coalesce, I'm not inclined to vote ghug, but Dip would be my choice. Or else Bona.

Leaning town: ghug, col7by, bozo, yoyo, brain
Unclear: haze
Lean darkly: bona, dip, spirit

Hamilton was among the no kill voters and was still in that bucket when he made this list. He had argued here that if no kill failed he would be interested in a bona or a dip kill. The first odd part is, he is scumreading spirit but doesnt list him as someone he would be inclined to vote. So im just gonna ask, how does that distinction happen?

I'll reread that in a moment brain.

We're also going to need the 4 vanity votes to shift one this all picks up steam.

After seeing a case on dip, someone he wants to vote, and thinks is scum; he states that the main goal before reading the case is to convince vanity voters to change their votes. So in a span of 4 minutes, he went from being good with a tie, to wanting to shore up votes. Somehow he implies that he will read my case after putting in some sort of "work" to make that happen.

At 1:47 left in the day Hamilton starts openly asking for advice on to who to recruit tonight.

As we're moving close to end of day, is this the time to do one of those pools for information. Say, if I were a spy I would recruit...

What would that information tell us? I don't know. I don't know we get far enough to use it, but...

Shortly after, he says

Is Mafia 1 team motivated to getting Spy 2 leader DK'd?

the specific way this is implied, is that there is no vice versa. Maybe im misreading this but this sounds like he is only asking this question one way. In my mind this is because Hamilton is one of the mafia, and is only really curious about his opponent mafia team.

It is just us; I don't want a mad scramble at the end so I will revert back to no-kill if I see it going badly for ghug.

##Vote ghug

Previously against this option he now joins the wagon on ghug anyway.
He then once again continues to try to fish for free advice on who to recruit.

So Spirit, say you're Spy. Who are your top three recruits?

At the final moment of the day, 1 minute to go, Hamilton breaks the tie to kill dip.

He then proceeds to make a string of self depricating posts shaming himself for his mistake.

You can thank me but I really screwed town. Again. Mr. Fucking Impetuous.

It's not like one miskill is any better than any other one right now.

And we have two camps: no-kill is bad/no-kill is optimal. I feel like a heel sitting on the latter all day just to then fuck right in and make a fool of myself. Again.

He then begins again on wanting more info on who is going to be recruited, and continues to press this idea.

I think towards EoN, before spies get a chance to revert their recruitment orders, we ...

Well, shit, we can just do it early on D2.

Make a list of most likely to be recruited, then create a pool of daykills based on that.

I think Hamilton is pretty clearly one of the mafia here, trying to solicit free recruitment advice.


Now for the data tell part of this:
In order to find this data I pulled every posting data item from every one of the 28 mini games into an excel and then began to omit gms from each list since gms posting data shouldnt be included.
game by game I go through and sort first by scumgames.
I then take each scumgame for each player and create their averages of posts per game, words per game, and words per post.

I then repeat the process for every town game, and at the end of my data, only 3 players from this game had a sample size of greater than 1 to use as comparative data.

So I compared ghugs town mini games to his scum
bozos town mini games to his scum
and hamiltons town mini games to his scum

What I found was that I was able to create a tendencies chart for each player
bozo Has less Posts Has more words, and higher words per post as Mafia

ghug Posts more as scum, posts more words as scum, posts more words per post as scum

Hamilton Brian Posts less as scum, Posts less words as scum, Posts less words per post as scum

-----
Comparing these tendencies, averages and considering the setup, the nuances, I noted that ghug only failed moderately on 2 categories of words per day, and words per post at a difference of 192 more words than his usual average and 13.47 more words per post than his usual average.

bozo only slightly failed in all 3 categories with 6 less posts than usual, 107 more words than usual, 11.16 more words per post than usual. I dont consider bozo failing in these three areas to be all that odd given just how weird the setup is, and allowing for this to just happen anyway.

But when I got to Hamilton, he not only failed in every category, he failed with 6 less posts than a usual day 1 for himself, 403 less words than his usual town self, and 5 less words per post than his usual self.

So once I saw that. It occurred to me that his variances are all below his usual stats, and hes also been actively asking for recruitment advice in the game.

Simply put. I think Hamilton is guilty here

why would a one-man scum team ask for advise in the thread

[Bonatogether]

also full disclosure i was in phil-a-delf-yah yesterday/day before so was busy

did you eat a cheesesteak with chawqer

i did, enjoyed it

i have become a big time philly lover

[Bonatogether]

Top of the player list is harder to parse

1) yoyoyozo why town? i think their posts about the maf team recruiting all and laughing is not a thing he wouldve said as mafia. He was not super active but his posts to ghug were good and had towny aspects to them.

2) bonatogether fuck I dont know. This is some
Bizarro shit from him here

4) bozotheclown - widely townread maybe for the wrong reasons. He backed off two pushes and was not very petulant. Maybe he is maf here playing a really decent con game.

I like playing with brain. He makes my head hurt because there's a randomness that happens that I just can't contend with.

I appreciate the checks of "this game vs previous games" but with his editorializing, and no one fact checking him, there's no guarantee of honesty there. It's like Jeff Gannon asking "Why are you the greatest president to date" then writing the headline "George W Bush is the greatest president to date."

However, I don't want to besmirch the efforts. I think anything that a town player does to create a pool of town vs mafia is valourous. I think I just suggest approaching it with caution.

That being said...we resonate on bona, but I have perpetually had a generational issue with bona. I don't get them at the best of times, I don't get them at the worst of times. I'm really going to hate it when post-Gen X people start playing.

I kind of groove on the bozo assessment as well. That statement thanking me for breaking the tie...oh, I could strangle them for it. What a hedgey hedgey position.

i am post gen X? gen X is my parents generation

[brainbomb]

theres some place where I guess on either side of the street are the two most popular philly places. And apparently there is mob ties or gang affiliations and people die all the time over which one is better. people run their mouths and the other philly restaurant people are like thugs, and go out murdering people.

[Bonatogether]

gen alpha is the cringe generation though

greatest - based
boomers - cringe
gen X - based?
millennials - cringe
zoomers - based
alpha - cringe

[Bonatogether]

theres some place where I guess on either side of the street are the two most popular philly places. And apparently there is mob ties or gang affiliations and people die all the time over which one is better. people run their mouths and the other philly restaurant people are like thugs, and go out murdering people.

i think i avoided that

[Bonatogether]

I’ve only played with brain when they were our beloved GM. What are they normally like during games, similar to this?

I think Brain plays like a chimpanzee when town. Throws a lot of shit all over the place; even picks up other chimp shit not of their doing, and flings that. They like the reaction. Unfortunately, mafia Brain does the same thing.

What a mean-spirited thing to say about someone.

chimps are cool though

[Bonatogether]

reading beanbone vs hamcomb, observe (plagiarize) that hamcomb survived d1 and is therefore not town

[Bonatogether]

I guess now we hunt and hope we get super lucky with our daykills because we still have no info to go on. Someone could make the case that the kill of Dip was mafia motivated which implicates me as the final vote.

My theory is that...well, I kind of have two because that's the duality I have to live with, seeing both sides.

a) mafia spy does NOT recruit a strong player and instead recruits someone able to slip in and out of the game unseen; someone not prone to talking too much.

Why? Longevity. Play the quiet discreet game.

b) mafia recruits the known strong players

Why? Can twist the daily thread, create stories and narratives, can PR hunt well (in this case the other spies).

So which strategy wins that spy team the game? And is that the wrong question? Is the question for us as town more, how do we hunt when we have no info?

we do have info? you were the vote that killed dippy, and you made grunk competitive.

[Bonatogether]

Alright then, time for the purity test. I don't see why anyone would object to answering this question.

If I were to recruit a player, my top three picks would be:
Add your name and please make the list alphabetical.

Brian: brain, bona, bozo

People watching on the god thread are probably laughing, saying, "Brian, you're going about it all wrong."

I originally had ghug in there, but with them travelling in southeast asia, I think that does present a bit of a detriment to coordinating. That is why I swapped them with bona.

lmao?? in what circumstances does this provide information?

[Bonatogether]

I think that's a bit of a hedge on your part though Spirit. What's the need to wait. I feel like things are super quiet and will remain so. If this was a recent game we'd be wanting to DK the lurkers and the quiets.

Well I want to see how things change starting day 2. I don't think establishing my thoughts on picks helps anyone before I can get a feel for if they are acting like they are mafia now. I can always say later, read it as a hedge if you want, I just want to not influence people into not making the mistakes I'm looking out for.

I will say that the main scum read that got worse over night as opposed to better (HB and ghug are still scummy to me, but they did feel better in the night), is Colby. I don't like how he was kind of pushing brain and not pushing him. I felt he was pretty scummy on day 1 and would have a decent chance of being OG spy. Dunno if he'd be picked by a spy, but I'd like to just start off with a ##vote col7by

He is being only kind of quiet, and just showing up to agree with people or ask about bb's playstyle. It just feels like he's nervous and trying to remain in the conversation but not knowing how to play it, feels unnatural. Feels like someone kind of new rolling scum. Although I don't really know how new he is, but he feels that way.

i feel like we've played before but i don't remember how you play. what is up with radio man

[Bonatogether]

Bona, you spend a good chunk of your D1 patronizing us as though we didn't understand what VCA is when you goddamned know that there would be NO information to gain from VCA D1 since there were 10 players with NO solid information. Even the two spies had no information.

And you disappeared.

i believe that there was d1 vca info, even if we can't see much yet. lots of interesting things to discuss - why does ghug flip onto dip when he could camp on no-kill and ride it out? why elevate the dip wagon?

to flip this around, why do you insist that we do nothing with that day?

clarified in another post, was out of town

[Bonatogether]

##vote bozo
I think bozo had a very nothing D1 and I noted before other reasoning. I will continue to say D1 no-kill was best because we gather no info a percentages were lower but guess that’s best into the ground now. Spirit feels like they’re posting with little substance but more misguided town with possibility of recruitment. “Nina” played similarly to this in my first game with them as town so feels town so far.

i forgot you were in this game. sad!

[Bonatogether]

##vote bozo
I think bozo had a very nothing D1 and I noted before other reasoning. I will continue to say D1 no-kill was best because we gather no info a percentages were lower but guess that’s best into the ground now. Spirit feels like they’re posting with little substance but more misguided town with possibility of recruitment. “Nina” played similarly to this in my first game with them as town so feels town so far.

i forgot you were in this game. sad!

also, i don't totally remember what game we were in together, but surely that's not true?? normally i make like 70 posts d1

[Bonatogether]

##VOTE Spirit

I'm coming around to brain's thinking on Hambone too.

You better have a more compelling reason that Cambodian grass to align yourself with Brain's read of me, which is, again, an incredible Chris Sharma reach.

Not an Olympic sport, I don't think, but give me some points to move on to the next round with the attempt!!!!!

You never really explained your 180 on me. You acknowledged you contradicted yourself and then couldn't give an explanation. That suggests to me that you didn't care very much about the outcome.

this is like ripped from a beanbomb post almost word for word. strange!

[Bonatogether]

Just for a moment, pretend that we did a no kill yesterday, because today was going to be full of ideas, content, people pushing people ect.

What would you be doing right now, totally differently if we had done a no kill?

i'd weep because it'd be boring as fuck

[Bonatogether]

Okay so town should consider whether or not they should even be aiming for spies at this point. Giving the spies a factional kill at this point is bad for town, for the reason I outlined previously, so maybe a no kill is in order this turn.

That way next turn, we have a higher chance of hitting a spy, and there’s a lower chance spies get a kill for N2.

*error sound*

killing scum is good, actually