M 1029: The webMafia Olympics game 1 SPY VS SPY

[SpiritoftheRadio]

Yoyo, would you say that your D1s are as cringe as what you exhibited yesterday?

6 posts, 2 to start that were yuk yuks...not really.

A quick vote on Col7by with no explanation.

A lurker post and a math post...pulling no information.

Then finally your final post that doesn't scream town but screams mercenary as in, you'll fight for any side you're on, but damn it, why don't you fight for town exclusively. Wincon be damned!

I made 6 posts, but you didn’t bother to read that I gave a reason for my vote on Col7by?

Let’s talk about wincons:

Yoyo, can you give me some reads? Or thoughts on recruitment or how your opinion on OG spies has developed over nightfall? I liked a couple things you said yesterday, but I want to hear more

[Yoyoyozo]

This game is interesting because town as a whole does have a wincon, but every player in it has a wincon strategy that is counter to town’s wincon.

Right now, if town hits a spy, the other spy team gains a night kill ability. This is bad for town in the short run because the chance of town being NKd is higher than the opposing spy team being NKd. It’s good in the long run because it’s literally the only way for town to proceed. Spies will just keep recruiting town otherwise until there’s 0-1 town left.

The game is then the majority spy team’s to lose. They can either keep recruiting or risk the lead with shot. And this decision is made every subsequent night. They can choose the stealth way and just recruit but the larger the spy team, the more likely it is for town to even the teams out. The aggressive way is they shoot, but if they miss, the other mafia team can even out the game with a recruit.

Town’s job is to essentially equalize the game and wait to be recruited, or aggressively hunt for spies, the latter of which may backfire because without 2 spy teams with a setup this small, it become MYLO/LYLO very quickly, with little information garnered by town. That’s why town should probably play it safe. It’s bad for town institutionally, but the people in it each have something to play for that doesn’t become extremely difficult all of a sudden.

[ghug]

The Case vs Hamilton the Brian


First off this is a discovery, and a series of alarming realizations. I ran through a huge data project that took up some of my time last night, where we needed to have every mini games day 1 posting habits in order to even consider accurate comparative stuff.

What I found was the last part of this so ill get this.

Here is Part 1.

I am personally good with the tie.

Should it look like no-kill will not win out and we start to coalesce, I'm not inclined to vote ghug, but Dip would be my choice. Or else Bona.

Leaning town: ghug, col7by, bozo, yoyo, brain
Unclear: haze
Lean darkly: bona, dip, spirit

Hamilton was among the no kill voters and was still in that bucket when he made this list. He had argued here that if no kill failed he would be interested in a bona or a dip kill. The first odd part is, he is scumreading spirit but doesnt list him as someone he would be inclined to vote. So im just gonna ask, how does that distinction happen?

I'll reread that in a moment brain.

We're also going to need the 4 vanity votes to shift one this all picks up steam.

After seeing a case on dip, someone he wants to vote, and thinks is scum; he states that the main goal before reading the case is to convince vanity voters to change their votes. So in a span of 4 minutes, he went from being good with a tie, to wanting to shore up votes. Somehow he implies that he will read my case after putting in some sort of "work" to make that happen.

At 1:47 left in the day Hamilton starts openly asking for advice on to who to recruit tonight.

As we're moving close to end of day, is this the time to do one of those pools for information. Say, if I were a spy I would recruit...

What would that information tell us? I don't know. I don't know we get far enough to use it, but...

Shortly after, he says

Is Mafia 1 team motivated to getting Spy 2 leader DK'd?

the specific way this is implied, is that there is no vice versa. Maybe im misreading this but this sounds like he is only asking this question one way. In my mind this is because Hamilton is one of the mafia, and is only really curious about his opponent mafia team.

It is just us; I don't want a mad scramble at the end so I will revert back to no-kill if I see it going badly for ghug.

##Vote ghug

Previously against this option he now joins the wagon on ghug anyway.
He then once again continues to try to fish for free advice on who to recruit.

So Spirit, say you're Spy. Who are your top three recruits?

At the final moment of the day, 1 minute to go, Hamilton breaks the tie to kill dip.

He then proceeds to make a string of self depricating posts shaming himself for his mistake.

You can thank me but I really screwed town. Again. Mr. Fucking Impetuous.

It's not like one miskill is any better than any other one right now.

And we have two camps: no-kill is bad/no-kill is optimal. I feel like a heel sitting on the latter all day just to then fuck right in and make a fool of myself. Again.

He then begins again on wanting more info on who is going to be recruited, and continues to press this idea.

I think towards EoN, before spies get a chance to revert their recruitment orders, we ...

Well, shit, we can just do it early on D2.

Make a list of most likely to be recruited, then create a pool of daykills based on that.

I think Hamilton is pretty clearly one of the mafia here, trying to solicit free recruitment advice.


Now for the data tell part of this:
In order to find this data I pulled every posting data item from every one of the 28 mini games into an excel and then began to omit gms from each list since gms posting data shouldnt be included.
game by game I go through and sort first by scumgames.
I then take each scumgame for each player and create their averages of posts per game, words per game, and words per post.

I then repeat the process for every town game, and at the end of my data, only 3 players from this game had a sample size of greater than 1 to use as comparative data.

So I compared ghugs town mini games to his scum
bozos town mini games to his scum
and hamiltons town mini games to his scum

What I found was that I was able to create a tendencies chart for each player
bozo Has less Posts Has more words, and higher words per post as Mafia

ghug Posts more as scum, posts more words as scum, posts more words per post as scum

Hamilton Brian Posts less as scum, Posts less words as scum, Posts less words per post as scum

-----
Comparing these tendencies, averages and considering the setup, the nuances, I noted that ghug only failed moderately on 2 categories of words per day, and words per post at a difference of 192 more words than his usual average and 13.47 more words per post than his usual average.

bozo only slightly failed in all 3 categories with 6 less posts than usual, 107 more words than usual, 11.16 more words per post than usual. I dont consider bozo failing in these three areas to be all that odd given just how weird the setup is, and allowing for this to just happen anyway.

But when I got to Hamilton, he not only failed in every category, he failed with 6 less posts than a usual day 1 for himself, 403 less words than his usual town self, and 5 less words per post than his usual self.

So once I saw that. It occurred to me that his variances are all below his usual stats, and hes also been actively asking for recruitment advice in the game.

Simply put. I think Hamilton is guilty here

Are you looking at things like size of thread or distributions at all?

[ghug]

your random decisions at end of days are often to do something weirdly provacative like self voting, or voting no kill, or voting a vanity wagon in a situation where voting wrong could allow mafia to gain a gun. ive seen you make these outlandish plays plenty.

But what I havent seen is you use your vote to keep all wagons viable, especially not in a situation where you supposedly dont want to necessarily see anyone die at all

I read brain's case before bed last night and thought "his heart's not in this" but now it feels like it is, so I think I'm back to townreading?

[ghug]

Alright then, time for the purity test. I don't see why anyone would object to answering this question.

If I were to recruit a player, my top three picks would be:
Add your name and please make the list alphabetical.

Brian: brain, bona, bozo

People watching on the god thread are probably laughing, saying, "Brian, you're going about it all wrong."

I originally had ghug in there, but with them travelling in southeast asia, I think that does present a bit of a detriment to coordinating. That is why I swapped them with bona.

I'd probably recruit Yoyo.

[ghug]

This game is interesting because town as a whole does have a wincon, but every player in it has a wincon strategy that is counter to town’s wincon.

Right now, if town hits a spy, the other spy team gains a night kill ability. This is bad for town in the short run because the chance of town being NKd is higher than the opposing spy team being NKd. It’s good in the long run because it’s literally the only way for town to proceed. Spies will just keep recruiting town otherwise until there’s 0-1 town left.

The game is then the majority spy team’s to lose. They can either keep recruiting or risk the lead with shot. And this decision is made every subsequent night. They can choose the stealth way and just recruit but the larger the spy team, the more likely it is for town to even the teams out. The aggressive way is they shoot, but if they miss, the other mafia team can even out the game with a recruit.

Town’s job is to essentially equalize the game and wait to be recruited, or aggressively hunt for spies, the latter of which may backfire because without 2 spy teams with a setup this small, it become MYLO/LYLO very quickly, with little information garnered by town. That’s why town should probably play it safe. It’s bad for town institutionally, but the people in it each have something to play for that doesn’t become extremely difficult all of a sudden.

What are you suggesting?

[ghug]

##VOTE Spirit

I'm coming around to brain's thinking on Hambone too.

[SpiritoftheRadio]

##VOTE Spirit

I'm coming around to brain's thinking on Hambone too.

in what universe am I Hambone?

[ghug]

##VOTE Spirit

I'm coming around to brain's thinking on Hambone too.

in what universe am I Hambone?

They're separate comments. You're Spibone, pronounced "spy bone".

[SpiritoftheRadio]

This game is interesting because town as a whole does have a wincon, but every player in it has a wincon strategy that is counter to town’s wincon.

Right now, if town hits a spy, the other spy team gains a night kill ability. This is bad for town in the short run because the chance of town being NKd is higher than the opposing spy team being NKd. It’s good in the long run because it’s literally the only way for town to proceed. Spies will just keep recruiting town otherwise until there’s 0-1 town left.

The game is then the majority spy team’s to lose. They can either keep recruiting or risk the lead with shot. And this decision is made every subsequent night. They can choose the stealth way and just recruit but the larger the spy team, the more likely it is for town to even the teams out. The aggressive way is they shoot, but if they miss, the other mafia team can even out the game with a recruit.

Town’s job is to essentially equalize the game and wait to be recruited, or aggressively hunt for spies, the latter of which may backfire because without 2 spy teams with a setup this small, it become MYLO/LYLO very quickly, with little information garnered by town. That’s why town should probably play it safe. It’s bad for town institutionally, but the people in it each have something to play for that doesn’t become extremely difficult all of a sudden.

I'm with ghug is not really knowing what you mean. The whole, just wait around to become mafia strat isn't fun nor appealing to me. Playing it safe is what? No killing?

[Col7by]

##vote bozo
I think bozo had a very nothing D1 and I noted before other reasoning. I will continue to say D1 no-kill was best because we gather no info a percentages were lower but guess that’s best into the ground now. Spirit feels like they’re posting with little substance but more misguided town with possibility of recruitment. “Nina” played similarly to this in my first game with them as town so feels town so far.

[Yoyoyozo]

I want to post some deeper analysis but I fear I risk ruining the game. What do you guys think?

[Hamilton Brian]

##VOTE Spirit

I'm coming around to brain's thinking on Hambone too.

You better have a more compelling reason that Cambodian grass to align yourself with Brain's read of me, which is, again, an incredible Chris Sharma reach.

Not an Olympic sport, I don't think, but give me some points to move on to the next round with the attempt!!!!!

[Hamilton Brian]

Like really...

I am coming around

Is the laziest "let someone else do the work" post. Christ, I know you're on vacation but don't fall into that shit!!!!

[SpiritoftheRadio]

I want to post some deeper analysis but I fear I risk ruining the game. What do you guys think?

Considering I'm currently the top wagon for 1) playing the game more than HB likes (though by his own admission about the same amount as him) and 2) literally not even being acknowledged by ghug all day before he votes for me. I think the bar for analysis is at an all time low. I'd love for you to spill.

[ghug]

##VOTE Spirit

I'm coming around to brain's thinking on Hambone too.

You better have a more compelling reason that Cambodian grass to align yourself with Brain's read of me, which is, again, an incredible Chris Sharma reach.

Not an Olympic sport, I don't think, but give me some points to move on to the next round with the attempt!!!!!

You never really explained your 180 on me. You acknowledged you contradicted yourself and then couldn't give an explanation. That suggests to me that you didn't care very much about the outcome.

[ghug]

I want to post some deeper analysis but I fear I risk ruining the game. What do you guys think?

Considering I'm currently the top wagon for 1) playing the game more than HB likes (though by his own admission about the same amount as him) and 2) literally not even being acknowledged by ghug all day before he votes for me. I think the bar for analysis is at an all time low. I'd love for you to spill.

I mean the day is young. The vote is my acknowledgement. I think you went after me opportunistically yesterday and would like to see some pressure.

[brainbomb]

If we all vote haze I wonder if they will show up and suddenly start playing.

##Vote Haze

[ghug]

If we all vote haze I wonder if they will show up and suddenly start playing.

##Vote Haze

I recall haze doing this as town too but I approve of the experiment regardless. ##VOTE Haze

[brainbomb]

Just for a moment, pretend that we did a no kill yesterday, because today was going to be full of ideas, content, people pushing people ect.

What would you be doing right now, totally differently if we had done a no kill?