M 1029: The webMafia Olympics game 1 SPY VS SPY

[Hamilton Brian]

Is there a way to use the bot to search a player and find the games they've been in?

[Yoyoyozo]

Is Yoyo pretending not to know the setup (mafia) or legit doesn't know (mafia/town)?

I’ll explain my logic in as much detail as I can D2

Not sure how much logic is needed when it states in the setup that only ...okay, just reread what you wrote. Might be best to keep it quiet at this point and near future. Let me spend a moment considering the implications.

Oh, okay I’ll be honest and say I didn’t read the entire setup. I don’t think that’s town or spy indicative anyway since if I were a spy or town, I would not have seen that, and I wouldn’t have any spy buddies to tell me otherwise.

[Hamilton Brian]

I’ll explain my logic in as much detail as I can D2

Not sure how much logic is needed when it states in the setup that only ...okay, just reread what you wrote. Might be best to keep it quiet at this point and near future. Let me spend a moment considering the implications.

Oh, okay I’ll be honest and say I didn’t read the entire setup. I don’t think that’s town or spy indicative anyway since if I were a spy or town, I would not have seen that, and I wouldn’t have any spy buddies to tell me otherwise.

I don't think it's indicative; one's pronouncement of it might be.

Don't you think Col7by? Brain?

[Col7by]

Not sure how much logic is needed when it states in the setup that only ...okay, just reread what you wrote. Might be best to keep it quiet at this point and near future. Let me spend a moment considering the implications.

Oh, okay I’ll be honest and say I didn’t read the entire setup. I don’t think that’s town or spy indicative anyway since if I were a spy or town, I would not have seen that, and I wouldn’t have any spy buddies to tell me otherwise.

I don't think it's indicative; one's pronouncement of it might be.

Don't you think Col7by? Brain?

I typically am not great at reading the full setup or understanding the nuances of it all. If yoyo and I are lumped into newish/lurker category this seems reasonable from them

[brainbomb]

My son is going in to the hospital for an EEG for his seizures so we will be doing an overnight stay with him. I will not be around much until probably tomorrow afternoon. Hoping for positive stuff.

[ghug]

Dang, sorry dip. I honestly would have preferred ghug, but I wasn’t on at eod. So we have a regular game here. I’ll have thoughts after EON, as there’s very little chance anyone gets NK’d this early on.

What the fuck

[ghug]

Is Yoyo pretending not to know the setup (mafia) or legit doesn't know (mafia/town)?

I’ll explain my logic in as much detail as I can D2

Not sure how much logic is needed when it states in the setup that only ...okay, just reread what you wrote. Might be best to keep it quiet at this point and near future. Let me spend a moment considering the implications.

Yoyo is both smart enough to fake this and dumb enough to do this.

[Hamilton Brian]

My son is going in to the hospital for an EEG for his seizures so we will be doing an overnight stay with him. I will not be around much until probably tomorrow afternoon. Hoping for positive stuff.

Good luck with that BB and BB jr.

[brainbomb]

Spirit, when you get a chance I think you might actually be right about Hamilton. I am moving him to scumread now for a few reasons ive discovered in my rereads.

[brainbomb]

The Case vs Hamilton the Brian


First off this is a discovery, and a series of alarming realizations. I ran through a huge data project that took up some of my time last night, where we needed to have every mini games day 1 posting habits in order to even consider accurate comparative stuff.

What I found was the last part of this so ill get this.

Here is Part 1.

I am personally good with the tie.

Should it look like no-kill will not win out and we start to coalesce, I'm not inclined to vote ghug, but Dip would be my choice. Or else Bona.

Leaning town: ghug, col7by, bozo, yoyo, brain
Unclear: haze
Lean darkly: bona, dip, spirit

Hamilton was among the no kill voters and was still in that bucket when he made this list. He had argued here that if no kill failed he would be interested in a bona or a dip kill. The first odd part is, he is scumreading spirit but doesnt list him as someone he would be inclined to vote. So im just gonna ask, how does that distinction happen?

I'll reread that in a moment brain.

We're also going to need the 4 vanity votes to shift one this all picks up steam.

After seeing a case on dip, someone he wants to vote, and thinks is scum; he states that the main goal before reading the case is to convince vanity voters to change their votes. So in a span of 4 minutes, he went from being good with a tie, to wanting to shore up votes. Somehow he implies that he will read my case after putting in some sort of "work" to make that happen.

At 1:47 left in the day Hamilton starts openly asking for advice on to who to recruit tonight.

As we're moving close to end of day, is this the time to do one of those pools for information. Say, if I were a spy I would recruit...

What would that information tell us? I don't know. I don't know we get far enough to use it, but...

Shortly after, he says

Is Mafia 1 team motivated to getting Spy 2 leader DK'd?

the specific way this is implied, is that there is no vice versa. Maybe im misreading this but this sounds like he is only asking this question one way. In my mind this is because Hamilton is one of the mafia, and is only really curious about his opponent mafia team.

It is just us; I don't want a mad scramble at the end so I will revert back to no-kill if I see it going badly for ghug.

##Vote ghug

Previously against this option he now joins the wagon on ghug anyway.
He then once again continues to try to fish for free advice on who to recruit.

So Spirit, say you're Spy. Who are your top three recruits?

At the final moment of the day, 1 minute to go, Hamilton breaks the tie to kill dip.

He then proceeds to make a string of self depricating posts shaming himself for his mistake.

You can thank me but I really screwed town. Again. Mr. Fucking Impetuous.

It's not like one miskill is any better than any other one right now.

And we have two camps: no-kill is bad/no-kill is optimal. I feel like a heel sitting on the latter all day just to then fuck right in and make a fool of myself. Again.

He then begins again on wanting more info on who is going to be recruited, and continues to press this idea.

I think towards EoN, before spies get a chance to revert their recruitment orders, we ...

Well, shit, we can just do it early on D2.

Make a list of most likely to be recruited, then create a pool of daykills based on that.

I think Hamilton is pretty clearly one of the mafia here, trying to solicit free recruitment advice.


Now for the data tell part of this:
In order to find this data I pulled every posting data item from every one of the 28 mini games into an excel and then began to omit gms from each list since gms posting data shouldnt be included.
game by game I go through and sort first by scumgames.
I then take each scumgame for each player and create their averages of posts per game, words per game, and words per post.

I then repeat the process for every town game, and at the end of my data, only 3 players from this game had a sample size of greater than 1 to use as comparative data.

So I compared ghugs town mini games to his scum
bozos town mini games to his scum
and hamiltons town mini games to his scum

What I found was that I was able to create a tendencies chart for each player
bozo Has less Posts Has more words, and higher words per post as Mafia

ghug Posts more as scum, posts more words as scum, posts more words per post as scum

Hamilton Brian Posts less as scum, Posts less words as scum, Posts less words per post as scum

-----
Comparing these tendencies, averages and considering the setup, the nuances, I noted that ghug only failed moderately on 2 categories of words per day, and words per post at a difference of 192 more words than his usual average and 13.47 more words per post than his usual average.

bozo only slightly failed in all 3 categories with 6 less posts than usual, 107 more words than usual, 11.16 more words per post than usual. I dont consider bozo failing in these three areas to be all that odd given just how weird the setup is, and allowing for this to just happen anyway.

But when I got to Hamilton, he not only failed in every category, he failed with 6 less posts than a usual day 1 for himself, 403 less words than his usual town self, and 5 less words per post than his usual self.

So once I saw that. It occurred to me that his variances are all below his usual stats, and hes also been actively asking for recruitment advice in the game.

Simply put. I think Hamilton is guilty here

[Hamilton Brian]

Top of the player list is harder to parse

1) yoyoyozo why town? i think their posts about the maf team recruiting all and laughing is not a thing he wouldve said as mafia. He was not super active but his posts to ghug were good and had towny aspects to them.

2) bonatogether fuck I dont know. This is some
Bizarro shit from him here

4) bozotheclown - widely townread maybe for the wrong reasons. He backed off two pushes and was not very petulant. Maybe he is maf here playing a really decent con game.

I like playing with brain. He makes my head hurt because there's a randomness that happens that I just can't contend with.

I appreciate the checks of "this game vs previous games" but with his editorializing, and no one fact checking him, there's no guarantee of honesty there. It's like Jeff Gannon asking "Why are you the greatest president to date" then writing the headline "George W Bush is the greatest president to date."

However, I don't want to besmirch the efforts. I think anything that a town player does to create a pool of town vs mafia is valourous. I think I just suggest approaching it with caution.

That being said...we resonate on bona, but I have perpetually had a generational issue with bona. I don't get them at the best of times, I don't get them at the worst of times. I'm really going to hate it when post-Gen X people start playing.

I kind of groove on the bozo assessment as well. That statement thanking me for breaking the tie...oh, I could strangle them for it. What a hedgey hedgey position.

[Hamilton Brian]

These Mountain Goats posts from Spirit read like anchor posts. I know my synonymous action would be the beer places in Chiang Mai with ghug, but they were short and to the point.

[Hamilton Brian]

Spirit, when you get a chance I think you might actually be right about Hamilton. I am moving him to scumread now for a few reasons ive discovered in my rereads.

And that's why I distrust your rereads.

So, you are either:
a) dumb town with a method you really like but is super flawed

or

b) subterfuging mafia making use of a tactic to distract town

[Col7by]

Spirit, when you get a chance I think you might actually be right about Hamilton. I am moving him to scumread now for a few reasons ive discovered in my rereads.

And that's why I distrust your rereads.

So, you are either:
a) dumb town with a method you really like but is super flawed

or

b) subterfuging mafia making use of a tactic to distract town

I’ve only played with brain when they were our beloved GM. What are they normally like during games, similar to this?

[Hamilton Brian]

And now I am realizing that it's just you and I posting. Which makes it look like it's OMGUS between you and I. So far you have shaded one town player, who you wouldn't have known the alignment of with some points of data that I don't think are clearly solid.

You've shaded another one with a set that I am not sure about because I have never played with Haze with a Zed.

And now you've shaded me with your data set, that now I know I can't trust, when I am definitely town.

Brain Brain Brain Brain Brain. Are you one of these spy leaders? Three cases but incorrect on two of them.

[Hamilton Brian]

Spirit, when you get a chance I think you might actually be right about Hamilton. I am moving him to scumread now for a few reasons ive discovered in my rereads.

And that's why I distrust your rereads.

So, you are either:
a) dumb town with a method you really like but is super flawed

or

b) subterfuging mafia making use of a tactic to distract town

I’ve only played with brain when they were our beloved GM. What are they normally like during games, similar to this?

I think Brain plays like a chimpanzee when town. Throws a lot of shit all over the place; even picks up other chimp shit not of their doing, and flings that. They like the reaction. Unfortunately, mafia Brain does the same thing.

[Hamilton Brian]

If I didn't have a fair and impartial GM in Darg, I would say that I am so pro-town, I would say, "Screw your mafia wincon!" and then blab in the thread about who recruited me.

I want town to win this despite the odds, goddamnit!

Who's with me?

Did we give up when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

Who's with me?

[SpiritoftheRadio]

I can kind of see what both of you are saying. But I also think both methods you use are a bit flawed and all over the place, but watching you go at it is fun, although I see it more as town v. town.

but we will see in the morning. We will have two new baddies more likely than not and actual connections to make.

[SpiritoftheRadio]

to be clear, I was referring to the BB HB beef. Its like when two famous people get into it on twitter, which will be kendrick and which will be drake will be shown in time

[Yoyoyozo]

And that's why I distrust your rereads.

So, you are either:
a) dumb town with a method you really like but is super flawed

or

b) subterfuging mafia making use of a tactic to distract town

I’ve only played with brain when they were our beloved GM. What are they normally like during games, similar to this?

I think Brain plays like a chimpanzee when town. Throws a lot of shit all over the place; even picks up other chimp shit not of their doing, and flings that. They like the reaction. Unfortunately, mafia Brain does the same thing.

What a mean-spirited thing to say about someone.