M 1029: The webMafia Olympics game 1 SPY VS SPY

[dargorygel]

GM FOR YOU

Vote Count 1.06

DiplomacyandWarfare (3) Bonatogether, ghug, brainbomb
No-Kill (2) Hamilton Brian, Col7by
ghug (2) SpiritoftheRadio, DiplomacyandWarfare
Col7by (1) Yoyoyozo
Yoyoyozo (1) bozotheclown
brainbomb (1) Haze with a Z

DiplomacyandWarfare has the most votes

2 and a half hours in the day


More than any other calendric event, the Olympics resulted in reverse Recruitment for Spies. Rarely did spies change sides during the Olympics, but a surprising number LEFT their Agencies due to romantic encounters, cultural pleasures, and the optimistic atmosphere of the Olympics overshadowing the dark tendencies of the Intelligence Agency cultures.

[SpiritoftheRadio]

I have never played with dip before, I dont think. My read on him is towny however, everything he has been saying seemed genuine to me. I feel like he has been talking a lot about mechanics, but everyone has. I don't see any obvious scum tells, but I am a little confused why he is the top wagon tbh. He isn't hunting or anything, but the way he comes off is town, and I could see him as someone who is an easily miskill since he is going a little hard on the arguing mechanics thing. I was in the same boat as him and thought about continuing to fight with ghug about it last night, but I decided I didn't care about changing ghugs mind, even if he makes no sense to me, which is odd for ghug.

I am still happy voting ghug, I was ready for him to come back and say "actually guys the no kill was just a lark to see if I could trick people to vote for it" and several of you seem to be saying that was what he was doing, but the boy has clearly doubled down and thinks the no kill is a good idea, even as he begrudgingly changed his vote to a new wagon. Idk if ghug goes this deep as a towny trying to manipulate people but it comes off really bad to me. Getting "towny leader" status seems like what he was aiming for and thats the safest place for a spy to hide if they can pull it off.

For other folks, bb, HB, and bona are always difficult to read for me because they bounce around a bit and often do eccentric things, and while they seem less eccentric than I remember them being this game, I have a slight scum read on bb and HB, and a slight town read on Bona. Bona is a little less aggressive than I remember his town play being, but it is still there a bit, and he could have cooled a bit on the chaos I remember since it has been a bit since I've played with him and it was only once before I think. BB is jumping around and pressuring people, I don't really know what he believes, but his reads list hit me as off. HB is doing his thing, making accusations and plays I dont really understand, I usually scum read him and so I am trying to take a step back and not, but my gut still doesn't like it. BB is also doing his thing, I give BB a bit more towny than HB, mostly because he is clearly putting effort in. [After reading everyone else and writing this post, i move bb to null, he is engaging a lot with other, and he'd do that as scum too, but he is making me think he is hunting]

Bozo seems cool, trying to solve, not being dumb, seems like town, maybe most town towny. Most importantly since there are no connections to draw between players rn is that he feels right on brand.

I don't remember much about yoyo or colby, and don't have strong feelings about them, once they get off bad wagons and onto a wagon of note, I'll revaluate. I did like Yoyo's post that made ghug want to get him mod killed. It was a bit too honest, but I like that in a towny, even if they are hoping to be scum lol. Colby is slightly scummier than yoyo, mostly because his post establishing his support for a no kill felt very much like a scummy person trying to pretend they're doing something they actually want to do while pretending they dont want to. I read colby as a safe player and he might look at a no kill as a big benefit if he rolled spy.

Haze is another player I don't know, my read is maybe slight town but closer to null than all the other town reads. I pretty much believe what he is posting when he does, but kind of like HB I don't really understand his votes beyond the ghug one. Voting for brain because he is annoying after slowly moving off of his ghug vote would be mega scummy to me if there was a mafia team that was looking out for each other. The move felt odd, but because there isn't a mafia team, the only reasons I can see for it is he is a towny and doing whatever the fuck and not trying to not be scummy or maybe he is a spy and thinks bb is another spy strongly and has moved off his pretty successful wagon accordingly. Based on his other posts, idk if he is the kind of guy who would see through to a spy and push like that though. High null.

TL;DR: reads spectrum
-----Lean Town-----
Bozo
Dip
Bona
Yoyo
------Null------
Haze
BB
-----Lean Scummy-----
HB
Colby
Ghug

[Hamilton Brian]

But who is more motivated to kill on D1 in this setup? I press that it is NOT town.

[Hamilton Brian]

As we're moving close to end of day, is this the time to do one of those pools for information. Say, if I were a spy I would recruit...

What would that information tell us? I don't know. I don't know we get far enough to use it, but...

[SpiritoftheRadio]

I have said this before, but I could see either side taking either position on the no-kill vs. pro-kill debate. To be honest, I can see a lot more of an argument for a no kill benefitting spies because they know they take no risk and get their team established. They additionally have a lot less control than usual over the victim of the kill d1 if we do kill, and that would make them nervous and more happy to support a no kill. I think it depends a lot on the person, but I think I'm more inclined to see spys supporting a no kill than town. I just dont see an argument from towns side that outweighs the potential benefit from killing off a whole mafia team from the start.

[Hamilton Brian]

To be honest, I can see a lot more of an argument for a no kill benefitting spies because they know they take no risk and get their team established.

I think that's a side of the argument I haven't thought of at this point. Now that you put it that way, it really offers something to think about.

I still see it as spy promoting the DK ensures numbers are 7:1:1 and then jamming to 5:2:2.

[bozotheclown]

I don't think the town team has much chance of winning if we eliminate a mafia team today, because the other mafia team will be able to focus entirely on us.

I also think we're much more likely to kill a townie, which doesn't help us either.

If we do not eliminate a mafia member today, town will not have much information about what is going on with the mafia, so we might as well keep voting no-kill and hope the mafia start getting NKed. That is not a very interesting game for town, though.

Tomorrow there will be teams and I suspect the Mafia will be trying to get each other killed.

I think that depends on what happens N1. If mafia 1 tries to recruit mafia 2 and mafia 2 successfully recruits a town, the mafia 2 team is probably not going to be motivated to DK mafia 1.

[Hamilton Brian]

Is Mafia 1 team motivated to getting Spy 2 leader DK'd?

[Haze with a Z]

But who is more motivated to kill on D1 in this setup? I press that it is NOT town.

I guess I’d argue the opposite because if you can convince the town of a no kill, that means you get at least one recruitment chance that has just over a 7/9 chance of gaining a teammate tbh

[Haze with a Z]

If we do not eliminate a mafia member today, town will not have much information about what is going on with the mafia, so we might as well keep voting no-kill and hope the mafia start getting NKed. That is not a very interesting game for town, though.

Tomorrow there will be teams and I suspect the Mafia will be trying to get each other killed.

I think that depends on what happens N1. If mafia 1 tries to recruit mafia 2 and mafia 2 successfully recruits a town, the mafia 2 team is probably not going to be motivated to DK mafia 1.

I didn’t think about this aspect, I kinda thought mafias would still want to kill the other regardless tbh

[Haze with a Z]

In other news I think my new laptop is broken and I’m kinda sad about it now tbh

[Hamilton Brian]

Tomorrow there will be teams and I suspect the Mafia will be trying to get each other killed.

I think that depends on what happens N1. If mafia 1 tries to recruit mafia 2 and mafia 2 successfully recruits a town, the mafia 2 team is probably not going to be motivated to DK mafia 1.

I didn’t think about this aspect, I kinda thought mafias would still want to kill the other regardless tbh

No, I agree with bozo on this count. I just kind of realized why, but I am dense that way.

[dargorygel]

48 More minutes... no changes to VC.

[SpiritoftheRadio]

just you and me HB... wanna hop on ghug just to make the others squirm? Tie is the same as no kill anyway right?

[Hamilton Brian]

It is just us; I don't want a mad scramble at the end so I will revert back to no-kill if I see it going badly for ghug.

##Vote ghug

[Hamilton Brian]

So Spirit, say you're Spy. Who are your top three recruits?

[SpiritoftheRadio]

Someone who wont die immediately and someone who won't get picked by the other spy. Talented lurkers are the best bet I suppose. I don't know a few of the folks here, but maybe yoyo or colby. Bozo is someone I dont think will die until a nk happens. Thats a good top 3. Depends a bit on how this kill goes though.

[Hamilton Brian]

You failed the Turing test!

[SpiritoftheRadio]

I am robot?

[Hamilton Brian]

Anyway...what a weird end to day 1.