M 1029: The webMafia Olympics game 1 SPY VS SPY

[Haze with a Z]

My goal is to win.
Getting converted to a maf team that wins is equally as acceptable as winning with the town team.

I agree with this but I also believe that one should play to their win con and if you are town, currently your win con is to eliminate both spy teams and not eliminate the town or get half of them recruited

Ok. Fine. I want to eliminate both spy teams. The best way to do that is to eliminate one today.
No matter which way you spin this, the best strategy is still to kill today.

I agree with that tbh. There is a reason I haven’t no kill voted tbh

[ghug]

that's also a reasonable argument. However, no matter what, town wants to eliminate a maf team today. If you remain town, this helps you because one maf team is eliminated and you just need to get the other. If you get converted, then your rival faction is eliminated. One way or another, eliminating a maf team helps everyone (except said maf team, but screw them).

I don't think the town team has much chance of winning if we eliminate a mafia team today, because the other mafia team will be able to focus entirely on us.

I also think we're much more likely to kill a townie, which doesn't help us either.

Seriously?
Did you miss the part where maf teams can recruit?
Meaning that like half of town would end up getting recruitted to the 2nd maf team?
Also, how is leaving alive a second maf team possibly going to help our chances?
Like, I see the whole "rival maf teams" thing, but what would end up happening would be that like 1-3 people would die as town, 3-4 people would win on one maf faction, and 2-3 people would lose on the other maf faction. That ends up being about 4-5 people currently town losing and 2-3 winning. Whereas its very possible for most of the current town to win if we eliminate one maf team, especially if the maf minions out every day, are killed, and then are replaced with a new recruited minion (avoiding either the recruiter dying or maf team getting majority against a large town).

I feel like I've addressed all of this repeatedly at this point.

[ghug]

Yea, I've been struggling to avoid the following when talking about mech:

• Implying that "town" does not include me

• Implying that town can only win as town

• Implying that town can only after being converted

• Implying that the best move for current town players is necessarily the one that gives the town team the best chance of winning

• Implying that I expect to be converted

• Implying that I don't expect to be converted

• Implying that I don't want to be converted

• Implying that town needs to "choose a maf team to side with"

• Failing to distinguish between the town team, town players, and players who are currently town

I don't doubt that I've probably failed at several of these things already.

It just feels like your goal is for starting towns to win and not the town team to win and imo if you are town your goal should be for the town team to win

My goal is to win.
Getting converted to a maf team that wins is equally as acceptable as winning with the town team.

##CALLGM please modkill

[ghug]

I want to kill haze, brain, or ghug. nobody else is voting brain and brain voting haze is kind of a turn-off so I will ##vote hazewithaz

What do you think turn-off means?

[Col7by]

My goal is to win.
Getting converted to a maf team that wins is equally as acceptable as winning with the town team.

I agree with this but I also believe that one should play to their win con and if you are town, currently your win con is to eliminate both spy teams and not eliminate the town or get half of them recruited

Ok. Fine. I want to eliminate both spy teams. The best way to do that is to eliminate one today.
No matter which way you spin this, the best strategy is still to kill today.

If we no kill today our chances bad missing tomorrow are drastically lower with the caveat that the scum teams will be helping town look for the other scum team rather than turn on each other

[ghug]

I want to kill haze, brain, or ghug. nobody else is voting brain and brain voting haze is kind of a turn-off so I will ##vote hazewithaz

mfw I realize I voted the wrong person
I would say brain fart but that would seem like a pun on brainbomb or smh
ill just do the ##vote ghug that I intended

Wait what? Please explain how brain's vote should have any impact on your voting haze? There aren't connections in this game right now.

[Yoyoyozo]

Is that so

we're at 7-1-1 no-killing puts us into d2 5-2-2 with zero information - not even an nk. what's the information we receive that helps us find scum? let it roll to 3-3-3? then it's just a game of which scum team gets dked first. we need cards on the table and we need it sooner rather than later

What information do we get from killing today?

Okay I think both you and I know that your thinking isn’t this short-term. I think your no-kill thing has been a way to spark conversation and may be a fishing tactic to lure spies. For that reason, I think I it’s late enough in the day for you to drop it, let’s get rid of someone on the no-kill wagon.

Town shouldn’t just be planning to maximize the town’s chances of success, because each subsequent day, the chance of us being converted to a spy (for which we have no choice) increases so really we should be playing for the end game, which involves limiting the “voting pool” of the opposing spy teams. Only if we hit a spy today will your logic (and my meme scenario) even come into play so we should take that into account.

I stand by ##vote Col7by

[Col7by]

The only way for town to make it to day 3 (given mafia correctly recruit) with a lead in people is correctly getting a mafia correct today or no voting today and doing it day 2. I like my odds more of doing it tomorrow than doing it today.

[Col7by]

we're at 7-1-1 no-killing puts us into d2 5-2-2 with zero information - not even an nk. what's the information we receive that helps us find scum? let it roll to 3-3-3? then it's just a game of which scum team gets dked first. we need cards on the table and we need it sooner rather than later

What information do we get from killing today?

Okay I think both you and I know that your thinking isn’t this short-term. I think your no-kill thing has been a way to spark conversation and may be a fishing tactic to lure spies. For that reason, I think I it’s late enough in the day for you to drop it, let’s get rid of someone on the no-kill wagon.

Town shouldn’t just be planning to maximize the town’s chances of success, because each subsequent day, the chance of us being converted to a spy (for which we have no choice) increases so really we should be playing for the end game, which involves limiting the “voting pool” of the opposing spy teams. Only if we hit a spy today will your logic (and my meme scenario) even come into play so we should take that into account.

I stand by ##vote Col7by

I just hate this thinking so much. I am town now and plan to figure out however people as town can win. We will get to the point where mafia will start killing each other and not all town will get converted so it would be better to maximize the amount of people we have in that scenario

[ghug]

we're at 7-1-1 no-killing puts us into d2 5-2-2 with zero information - not even an nk. what's the information we receive that helps us find scum? let it roll to 3-3-3? then it's just a game of which scum team gets dked first. we need cards on the table and we need it sooner rather than later

What information do we get from killing today?

Okay I think both you and I know that your thinking isn’t this short-term. I think your no-kill thing has been a way to spark conversation and may be a fishing tactic to lure spies. For that reason, I think I it’s late enough in the day for you to drop it, let’s get rid of someone on the no-kill wagon.

Town shouldn’t just be planning to maximize the town’s chances of success, because each subsequent day, the chance of us being converted to a spy (for which we have no choice) increases so really we should be playing for the end game, which involves limiting the “voting pool” of the opposing spy teams. Only if we hit a spy today will your logic (and my meme scenario) even come into play so we should take that into account.

I stand by ##vote Col7by

This is the logic that almost got you to kill Flum for me in that one Mafia game.

(Hi darg please modkill)

[ghug]

##VOTE Dip

I don't think I'm getting my no kill today, sadly. Please feel free to prove me wrong.

[dargorygel]

##GM COMMENTS
a) After reading bozo's warning concerning spreadsheets, and brain's promise to not edit them after posting, I think the issue has been handled. However, the Kouncil ought to look at this post game. Spreadsheets are a thing of the present and future it seems.
b) After reading ghug's request for a modkill, which I assume he makes over the issue of 'win con,' it appears to me that wincon is perhaps a bit more fluid than we would like, in an odd game like this. I have read no comments by anyone (under whatever alignment they may be under) that leads to me conclude they are playing against their wincons.

That is all.

[Hamilton Brian]

Reads:
Brain seems sus
Bona's stupidity seems more likely to come from town
I don't think scum Brian pushes a no kill
Good vibes from Haze
That is all

Awkwardly, I apparently share reads with the person I am voting for.

Well I'm starting to scumread you and you voted for me, so not entirely!

Working my way toward the end of the thread but I really feel the advocates for a DK are way less town than those pushing for the no-kill.

I can't believe the misguided assumption bona has been stuck on about VCA. That's a big sus for me. Is this mafia bona just pushing because it's in mafia's interest to push town down? Or is this town bona being stubborn and misguided?

[Hamilton Brian]

I will fight you on this when I'm not getting stoned at a bar in Chiang Mai. It's always a bus.

Seriously, Chiang Mai? We loved it there last year. Trying to remember the name of the place we stayed; it was gorgeous. Little craft beer place up the street.

[dargorygel]

##MORE IMPORTANT GM NOTICES

Vote Count 1.05

No-Kill (2) Hamilton Brian, Col7by
ghug (2) SpiritoftheRadio, DiplomacyandWarfare
DiplomacyandWarfsare (2) Bonatogether, ghug
Col7by (1) Yoyoyozo
Haze with a Z (1) brainbomb (endvote)
Yoyoyozo (1) bozotheclown
brainbomb (1) Haze with a Z

A three way tie is the present status… no one is set to die.

All have met minimum standards of participation.

Day will end in around 3 and a half hours.

Gambling is usually a part of sports, including the Olympics. Due to secret information, Intelligence Agents often had a bit of an edge when it comes to predicting outcomes of events. When they chose to gamble, it was often successful.

When such activities (due to bragging, usually) was discovered, the Agency Chiefs found themselves in a tight spot. They could not discipline the agents without admitting publicly what information was being gathered, and leading to assumptions about methodiology, and perhaps putting resources at risk.

A solution was found in re-assigning such Agents to other activities and regions. And if the infractions were serious enough (repeat, for instance) the Agents were fired for other, often made up, reasons.

“Don’t spy and Gamble.”

[ghug]

I will fight you on this when I'm not getting stoned at a bar in Chiang Mai. It's always a bus.

Seriously, Chiang Mai? We loved it there last year. Trying to remember the name of the place we stayed; it was gorgeous. Little craft beer place up the street.

Yep, I'm loving it here.

Only one more day here before we head to Cambodia but I'd be curious if you remember the name because I've been craving hops.

[Hamilton Brian]

I will fight you on this when I'm not getting stoned at a bar in Chiang Mai. It's always a bus.

Seriously, Chiang Mai? We loved it there last year. Trying to remember the name of the place we stayed; it was gorgeous. Little craft beer place up the street.

Yep, I'm loving it here.

Only one more day here before we head to Cambodia but I'd be curious if you remember the name because I've been craving hops.

Totally out of game but want you to see it; we stayed at El Barrio Lanna Hotel, and the beer place (more a bottle shop but you could drink there) was about a 1 km walk from there. Maybe near a 7 11. Like that helps, but best I have right now.

[Hamilton Brian]

I am personally good with the tie.

Should it look like no-kill will not win out and we start to coalesce, I'm not inclined to vote ghug, but Dip would be my choice. Or else Bona.

Leaning town: ghug, col7by, bozo, yoyo, brain
Unclear: haze
Lean darkly: bona, dip, spirit

[brainbomb]

Case on Diplomacy and Warfare
An analysis of his posts

Out of 48 total posts
33 are Setup talk or mech talk
Of those 33 setup talk posts, 1 of them contain a stated reason why someone might be mafia:

In post 32 he quotes two topics by bozo, then seems to try to buddy bozo regarding his vote on me. No reasoning was actually given as to why I was scum here but I was generous and counted it as a post stating I was mafia.

In his 15 other posts where he isnt talking about Mech he provides a reason why someone could be scum in 4 of those posts.

they are post 15 where he first votes me defensively for being pushed

post 23 where he jokingly claims spirit could be mafia as democrat spy

Post 33 where suddenly he lists haze, bona, brain and ghug in his mafia reads

Post 42 where he appears to buddy haze by voting me, and claims all of brainbombs pushes are stupid - despite claiming to also scumread haze

Suddenly Post 47

I want to kill haze, brain, or ghug. nobody else is voting brain and brain voting haze is kind of a turn-off so I will ##vote hazewithaz

47 does not provide any reason for wanting to kill Haze so it was not counted as providing any coherent reasion whatsoever

Post 48
appears to be exculpatory, claims he got his vote wrong, ghug notes that dip appears to make his read based off not wanting to associate himself with a scumteam, which cant exist in the setup (which he has been talking about for 33 of his 48 posts)

Post 49
updated reads still listing haze, ghug and brain as scum, bona no longer listed despite saying nothing since previous list


So basically you have a person relentlessly spamming the game with mech talk, who is either buddying or getting defensive on any post where he tries to claim someone is mafia. In total, less than 5 actual explanations for any of his reads; half of which he treats like memes.

##Vote Dip and War

I also have a sheet for this case but I imagine everyone is very weary of spreadsheets so I have summarized instead here

[Hamilton Brian]

I'll reread that in a moment brain.

We're also going to need the 4 vanity votes to shift one this all picks up steam.