M 1029: The webMafia Olympics game 1 SPY VS SPY

[Haze with a Z]

no, it doesn't.
At the point where there are 4 maf, we are more or less guaranteed to lose. This happens whether we nokill or miskill. The only situation where we have decent odds of a town win is if we kill a maf leader today, or if one or more maf recruits fail.

The remaining town are not guaranteed to lose because they still have a chance of being recruited to a winning mafia team, but I agree with your point.

To be clear, my point is that, with the goal of players who are town winning (not necessarily as town), killing today is a better idea than not killing because we potentially have a chance to knock out an entire maf team.

This feels like an interesting word choice tbh

[brainbomb]

bozo, just so were on the same page, there is an ulterior motive to my spreadsheet for this game, but falsifying data is absolutely reputation destroying.

I would be throwing away my credibility just to score a cheap win if I were doing data falsification as mafia.

and no, I will not clarify what that ulterior motive is. just trust it aims for a lot of fun happenings.

[bozotheclown]

##VOTE Yoyoyozo

I think this slot has a greater than 22% chance of being mafia based on some other players being slightly more than 78% likely to be be town.

[Haze with a Z]

I just thought of an absolutely hilarious scenario. If we eliminate a spy today, the other spy could claim and convert the rest of town if we allow them.We could just chit chat in the meantime

Are you a spy?

[bozotheclown]

bozo, just so were on the same page, there is an ulterior motive to my spreadsheet for this game, but falsifying data is absolutely reputation destroying.

I would be throwing away my credibility just to score a cheap win if I were doing data falsification as mafia.

and no, I will not clarify what that ulterior motive is. just trust it aims for a lot of fun happenings.

OK, thanks.

[Haze with a Z]

##unvote

I’ve decided that I’m not sure if it is ghug anymore after page 7. This being said idk who to change my vote to rn tbh

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

Yeah fuck that. The rule is to play to your win condition: the team you're currently on. This kind of game doesn't work if it's just groveling for recruitment.

that's also a reasonable argument. However, no matter what, town wants to eliminate a maf team today. If you remain town, this helps you because one maf team is eliminated and you just need to get the other. If you get converted, then your rival faction is eliminated. One way or another, eliminating a maf team helps everyone (except said maf team, but screw them).

I don't think the town team has much chance of winning if we eliminate a mafia team today, because the other mafia team will be able to focus entirely on us.

I also think we're much more likely to kill a townie, which doesn't help us either.

Seriously?
Did you miss the part where maf teams can recruit?
Meaning that like half of town would end up getting recruitted to the 2nd maf team?
Also, how is leaving alive a second maf team possibly going to help our chances?
Like, I see the whole "rival maf teams" thing, but what would end up happening would be that like 1-3 people would die as town, 3-4 people would win on one maf faction, and 2-3 people would lose on the other maf faction. That ends up being about 4-5 people currently town losing and 2-3 winning. Whereas its very possible for most of the current town to win if we eliminate one maf team, especially if the maf minions out every day, are killed, and then are replaced with a new recruited minion (avoiding either the recruiter dying or maf team getting majority against a large town).

[Haze with a Z]

Also 90% of what is being posted feels like just the math without the other stuff included which is not really ai or helping with solving tbh.

[brainbomb]

I am struggling to read between col7by and Dip&war as to whether both are mafia.

Ive been assuming all this time that the two mafia are trying to find each other and kill the other mafia today so they can be the only cake in the bakery. But perhaps col7by parroting everyone talking about no kill and turning it into his mainstay is just him as mafia trying to be as compliant as possible.

and dip&war just repeating endlessly that its about the mech, and about killing mafia, while offering no actual hunting or actual reasons for people being mafia (besides me of course).

if those two were mafia, they just opt to use the setup as their main talking point to avoid rousing suspicions on themself.

and then theres Haze who shows up the moment I mention their name as mafia. has tunneled ghug, and now seems to be "coming around" miraculously that dip might actually be mafia.

So my order of people id kill is : haze -> col7by -> dip
two of the scum in that core group based on lack of actual detective work being done.

Col7by and dip share the common scumread or votes they sent my direction. I am keenly aware that no one would ever recruit me given my penchant for imploding as scum; so today and each day I will always be someone mafia would want as a miskill rather than as a recruitment option.

its just col7by wouldnt know my scumgame, and dip only barely would know it exists. Haze would have zero knowledge of my meta having misread me in our only game together on MU.

so Haze feels like they chose me to be a townread because I was talking early, and chose ghug because it was easy to go for.

People playing as town who seem to want to stay town, and win as town
ghug
bozo
spirit

and I say this because they arent overly fixated on what may happen, they are instead focused more on playing the game that has been handed to them

[Haze with a Z]

Ok I was hoping y'all would just get this but we're not playing mafia.

Several people have already noted that town is doomed. That's true if we play it like mafia, and it's kind of a feature of the setup. The way town wins this game is by pitting the mafia against each other. Townies can also win this game by being recruited, but my reading of the rules has always been that playing to this outcome runs contrary to playing to one's own win condition (the spectrum of positions on this point kind of undermines the game's whole conceit, which is one of the reasons I'm personally not a fan of recruitment games).

If we kill a townie today, we have less ability to effect our will as the game progresses further. If we kill scum today, there's no counterweight to the other scum team. We go into tomorrow in what's basically a brand new 7v2 mafia game in which we have no PRs, scum has twice as much power as a normal mafia team to reduce the number disparity as long as their leader is alive, and every new recruit is going to lack connections to their teammates. Town is unlikely to win that game. We need the Mafia team to be threats to each other.

We normally kill D1 for two reasons, neither of which applies here:
1. To start getting voting information. Bozo has already pointed out that this doesn't work when the mafia don't have teammates. I'm a little bit shocked Bona didn't notice this.
2. Because our numbers advantage will only get worse over time. This isn't applicable here for the reasons I laid out above.

Counterargument:
There are currently 3 teams
after some time, the recruits will turn the game from 7 1 1 to something like 4 3 2 or 3 3 3
At that point, only a small fraction of the players who are currently town have a chance of winning.
If we eliminate a maf today, we eliminate an entire team. That is the main goal in voting today.
This works for the exact reason that there are only one maf on each team.
Starting d2 and onward, maf will likely control around half combined of the players, which will lead to maf having greater control over who is eliminated. Again, the best option for people who are currently town is to kill one maf leader and try to be recruited into the other's faction.

Yeah fuck that. The rule is to play to your win condition: the team you're currently on. This kind of game doesn't work if it's just groveling for recruitment.

I’m gonna agree here. It seems as if people are playing for the most number of starting towns to win instead of the town team even just by focusing on the recruiting aspect. Yes it is almost impossible for us to win but it isn’t impossible so we need to try instead of this weird most number of starting towns winning

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

The remaining town are not guaranteed to lose because they still have a chance of being recruited to a winning mafia team, but I agree with your point.

To be clear, my point is that, with the goal of players who are town winning (not necessarily as town), killing today is a better idea than not killing because we potentially have a chance to knock out an entire maf team.

This feels like an interesting word choice tbh

Yea, I've been struggling to avoid the following when talking about mech:

• Implying that "town" does not include me

• Implying that town can only win as town

• Implying that town can only after being converted

• Implying that the best move for current town players is necessarily the one that gives the town team the best chance of winning

• Implying that I expect to be converted

• Implying that I don't expect to be converted

• Implying that I don't want to be converted

• Implying that town needs to "choose a maf team to side with"

• Failing to distinguish between the town team, town players, and players who are currently town

I don't doubt that I've probably failed at several of these things already.

[Haze with a Z]

#vote yogo I kinda think your idea was you being the spy person

Also brain, I know I’m not great at reading people but there is also no way I’d know you are moth tbh if you hadn’t said something.

Although yes I did probably tr you because you spoke early but also because you spoke around the same time as me tbh. I tend to tr people I speak to more tbh.

Also I think you are misunderstanding my read on dip because I still don’t have The intention of voting them today I just decided they shouldn’t be top town. If anything I think it is likely one of you and them are mafia tbh but I don’t want To try to fight there today esp because I don’t feel confident enough on either of you being mafia

[Haze with a Z]

To be clear, my point is that, with the goal of players who are town winning (not necessarily as town), killing today is a better idea than not killing because we potentially have a chance to knock out an entire maf team.

This feels like an interesting word choice tbh

Yea, I've been struggling to avoid the following when talking about mech:

• Implying that "town" does not include me

• Implying that town can only win as town

• Implying that town can only after being converted

• Implying that the best move for current town players is necessarily the one that gives the town team the best chance of winning

• Implying that I expect to be converted

• Implying that I don't expect to be converted

• Implying that I don't want to be converted

• Implying that town needs to "choose a maf team to side with"

• Failing to distinguish between the town team, town players, and players who are currently town

I don't doubt that I've probably failed at several of these things already.

It just feels like your goal is for starting towns to win and not the town team to win and imo if you are town your goal should be for the town team to win

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

Yes, it appears that for your entry for example, I took your stats from last 50 games by mistake.

in last 50 games you were
7 mafia out of 11 times, as shown on the last 50 games tab with a winrate of .63
ghugs was listed as only having 5 mafia out of 9 tries with a winrate of .55

screen shot provided shows the tab I grabbed from.

data.png

OK, I think this has shown a potential problem with these type of posts. Since the information accessed by the link can be changed, it has the potential to get around the "no editing posts" rule for the purpose of mafia communication.

Agreed. This is probably a better thing to discuss in the master thread after the game, though.

[brainbomb]

#vote yogo I kinda think your idea was you being the spy person

invalid vote

also, I don't believe that you really could believe this.

[ghug]

that's also a reasonable argument. However, no matter what, town wants to eliminate a maf team today. If you remain town, this helps you because one maf team is eliminated and you just need to get the other. If you get converted, then your rival faction is eliminated. One way or another, eliminating a maf team helps everyone (except said maf team, but screw them).

I don't think the town team has much chance of winning if we eliminate a mafia team today, because the other mafia team will be able to focus entirely on us.

I also think we're much more likely to kill a townie, which doesn't help us either.

If we do not eliminate a mafia member today, town will not have much information about what is going on with the mafia, so we might as well keep voting no-kill and hope the mafia start getting NKed. That is not a very interesting game for town, though.

Tomorrow there will be teams and I suspect the Mafia will be trying to get each other killed.

[Haze with a Z]

Brain ig what I wanna say is that me coming online had nothing to do with you and if you didn’t notice my first post was not about you talking it was me responding to where I had left off and idk how I’d see your post before I showed up tbh

[ghug]

##VOTE Yoyoyozo

I think this slot has a greater than 22% chance of being mafia based on some other players being slightly more than 78% likely to be be town.

damotheclown

[brainbomb]

haze is absolutely gonna recruit ghug and used the vote on him to distance.

[Haze with a Z]

#vote yogo I kinda think your idea was you being the spy person

invalid vote

also, I don't believe that you really could believe this.

For me it’s the best I have tbh besides omgus on you for voting me for a stupid reason