M 1029: The webMafia Olympics game 1 SPY VS SPY

[ghug]

Reads:
Brain seems sus
Bona's stupidity seems more likely to come from town
I don't think scum Brian pushes a no kill
Good vibes from Haze
That is all

Awkwardly, I apparently share reads with the person I am voting for.

Well I'm starting to scumread you and you voted for me, so not entirely!

[ghug]

Over last ten games, town has eliminated a mafia day 1 4/10 tries
If you count sweet being shot by a gun day 1 its 5/10 day 1 occurences in past 10 games.

Thats actually alot better than it used to be

It's almost always in the context of a successful mafia bus, though, which won't happen here.

I wanted to analyze this further and discuss if this was actually accurate. What I found was rather depressing.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Ckm21aYaToovAgEYJcINx4D8t3p3tPsr8lvGjJ_jCiE/edit?usp=sharing

Out of 30 games sampled, Mafia was killed day 1 in only 8 of them, and one of the samples is a serial killer, not mafia who was caught day 1. another example includes a multiball game.

I also looked into mini games and found that out of 28 games, mafia were only killed twice on day 1.

In the first study, you notice that 6 of the 9 examples however bussing was not the main factor. Ignoring the serial killer game where bussing isnt a possibility, there was still only 1 mafia driving that wagon, thus town led a successful kill on a serial killer without mafia being the main driver behind preventing a miskill.

There were only 3 of the 9 instances where mafia presence on a wagon that resulted in a day 1 mafia death, was actually directly correlated in gross numbers to mafia influence.

So I think ghug is mistaken in his notion. That said I also think the way ghug has argued his point comes from a town mindset.

In other words, hes wrong about day 1 kills of mafia being caused primarily by bussing, but hes potentially being sincere about his beliefs that a no kill is best play here.

I will fight you on this when I'm not getting stoned at a bar in Chiang Mai. It's always a bus.

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

Ok I was hoping y'all would just get this but we're not playing mafia.

Several people have already noted that town is doomed. That's true if we play it like mafia, and it's kind of a feature of the setup. The way town wins this game is by pitting the mafia against each other. Townies can also win this game by being recruited, but my reading of the rules has always been that playing to this outcome runs contrary to playing to one's own win condition (the spectrum of positions on this point kind of undermines the game's whole conceit, which is one of the reasons I'm personally not a fan of recruitment games).

If we kill a townie today, we have less ability to effect our will as the game progresses further. If we kill scum today, there's no counterweight to the other scum team. We go into tomorrow in what's basically a brand new 7v2 mafia game in which we have no PRs, scum has twice as much power as a normal mafia team to reduce the number disparity as long as their leader is alive, and every new recruit is going to lack connections to their teammates. Town is unlikely to win that game. We need the Mafia team to be threats to each other.

We normally kill D1 for two reasons, neither of which applies here:
1. To start getting voting information. Bozo has already pointed out that this doesn't work when the mafia don't have teammates. I'm a little bit shocked Bona didn't notice this.
2. Because our numbers advantage will only get worse over time. This isn't applicable here for the reasons I laid out above.

Counterargument:
There are currently 3 teams
after some time, the recruits will turn the game from 7 1 1 to something like 4 3 2 or 3 3 3
At that point, only a small fraction of the players who are currently town have a chance of winning.
If we eliminate a maf today, we eliminate an entire team. That is the main goal in voting today.
This works for the exact reason that there are only one maf on each team.
Starting d2 and onward, maf will likely control around half combined of the players, which will lead to maf having greater control over who is eliminated. Again, the best option for people who are currently town is to kill one maf leader and try to be recruited into the other's faction.

Yeah fuck that. The rule is to play to your win condition: the team you're currently on. This kind of game doesn't work if it's just groveling for recruitment.

that's also a reasonable argument. However, no matter what, town wants to eliminate a maf team today. If you remain town, this helps you because one maf team is eliminated and you just need to get the other. If you get converted, then your rival faction is eliminated. One way or another, eliminating a maf team helps everyone (except said maf team, but screw them).

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

I suggest that everyone who has not both read the entire setup and read the entire signup thread stops talking about mech.
There have been like 3 instances so far of people arguing that mafia teams can both kill if they're tied on players, which is contradicted in both the setup and the signup thread.
Also, it's not a very productive line of discussion.

[Col7by]

Counterargument:
There are currently 3 teams
after some time, the recruits will turn the game from 7 1 1 to something like 4 3 2 or 3 3 3
At that point, only a small fraction of the players who are currently town have a chance of winning.
If we eliminate a maf today, we eliminate an entire team. That is the main goal in voting today.
This works for the exact reason that there are only one maf on each team.
Starting d2 and onward, maf will likely control around half combined of the players, which will lead to maf having greater control over who is eliminated. Again, the best option for people who are currently town is to kill one maf leader and try to be recruited into the other's faction.

Yeah fuck that. The rule is to play to your win condition: the team you're currently on. This kind of game doesn't work if it's just groveling for recruitment.

that's also a reasonable argument. However, no matter what, town wants to eliminate a maf team today. If you remain town, this helps you because one maf team is eliminated and you just need to get the other. If you get converted, then your rival faction is eliminated. One way or another, eliminating a maf team helps everyone (except said maf team, but screw them).

Eliminating a mafia is always helpful but does it outweigh the benefits of keeping possible townies alive and doing a no-kill? (sorry if this has been another post I’ve got confused who has said what). I think it doesn’t outweigh it based on lack of info from VCA and percentages of winning. I do need to think more about how that impacts myself says getting converted to scum my analysis has been a pure stay town whole game lens

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

Yeah fuck that. The rule is to play to your win condition: the team you're currently on. This kind of game doesn't work if it's just groveling for recruitment.

that's also a reasonable argument. However, no matter what, town wants to eliminate a maf team today. If you remain town, this helps you because one maf team is eliminated and you just need to get the other. If you get converted, then your rival faction is eliminated. One way or another, eliminating a maf team helps everyone (except said maf team, but screw them).

Eliminating a mafia is always helpful but does it outweigh the benefits of keeping possible townies alive and doing a no-kill? (sorry if this has been another post I’ve got confused who has said what). I think it doesn’t outweigh it based on lack of info from VCA and percentages of winning. I do need to think more about how that impacts myself says getting converted to scum my analysis has been a pure stay town whole game lens

Great. So you want to stay town and win as town. To do that, you need to eliminate both maf leaders, then the rest of their teams. if we kill a maf leader today, we eliminate their entire team. If we nokill and a maf leader recruits successfully, the following day killing a maf leader leaves their teammate alive. Which would you prefer?

[brainbomb]

Well, lets change this up and pressure someone new. Haze appeared to have some reads for a while and then has faded into the shadows. They were townreading people posting early like myself and Hamilton. I also saw their townread on dip&war was accompanied by a statement that they were likely to get recruited which I think was a strange thing to say.

I think the diplomacy person is town with a decent chance they get recruited

I also think brain is town and maybe Hamilton.

Also the spreadsheet was interesting although kinda boring for looking at myself tbh.

Another thing I reviewed of theirs was this use of tbh at the end of their posts. I found that they talk this way as both alignments on MU, and initially it was something I thought could be a scumtell, something they do mostly as mafia. That however was not the case.

The vote on ghug for his reaction to no-kill feels opportunistic and would be an easy thing to push against someone they are personally familiar with.

##Vote Haze

[ghug]

Counterargument:
There are currently 3 teams
after some time, the recruits will turn the game from 7 1 1 to something like 4 3 2 or 3 3 3
At that point, only a small fraction of the players who are currently town have a chance of winning.
If we eliminate a maf today, we eliminate an entire team. That is the main goal in voting today.
This works for the exact reason that there are only one maf on each team.
Starting d2 and onward, maf will likely control around half combined of the players, which will lead to maf having greater control over who is eliminated. Again, the best option for people who are currently town is to kill one maf leader and try to be recruited into the other's faction.

Yeah fuck that. The rule is to play to your win condition: the team you're currently on. This kind of game doesn't work if it's just groveling for recruitment.

that's also a reasonable argument. However, no matter what, town wants to eliminate a maf team today. If you remain town, this helps you because one maf team is eliminated and you just need to get the other. If you get converted, then your rival faction is eliminated. One way or another, eliminating a maf team helps everyone (except said maf team, but screw them).

I don't think the town team has much chance of winning if we eliminate a mafia team today, because the other mafia team will be able to focus entirely on us.

I also think we're much more likely to kill a townie, which doesn't help us either.

[Haze with a Z]

I think the diplomacy person is town with a decent chance they get recruited

I also think brain is town and maybe Hamilton.

Also the spreadsheet was interesting although kinda boring for looking at myself tbh.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WuK46n8Xiel1fnWlPSE7h-iDUcuX7Z_oYS4SW-CMNVs/edit?usp=sharing

I made the spreadsheet more interesting and included your MU winrates. welcome to the fold.

As a side note, you have played 86 games as scum and 268 as town??? Thats quite a lot of games.

I’d bet a solid number of those games are turbos though that only take up about an hour of time total

[ghug]

Well, lets change this up and pressure someone new. Haze appeared to have some reads for a while and then has faded into the shadows. They were townreading people posting early like myself and Hamilton. I also saw their townread on dip&war was accompanied by a statement that they were likely to get recruited which I think was a strange thing to say.

I think the diplomacy person is town with a decent chance they get recruited

I also think brain is town and maybe Hamilton.

Also the spreadsheet was interesting although kinda boring for looking at myself tbh.

Another thing I reviewed of theirs was this use of tbh at the end of their posts. I found that they talk this way as both alignments on MU, and initially it was something I thought could be a scumtell, something they do mostly as mafia. That however was not the case.

The vote on ghug for his reaction to no-kill feels opportunistic and would be an easy thing to push against someone they are personally familiar with.

##Vote Haze

I don't like the silence but I think I probably did sound odd last night and Haze was the first person to pick up on it, which I don't think should be read as opportunistic. I'm never an easy person to target and Haze knows that.

[brainbomb]

My townreads are spirit, yoyo, bozo, and ghug

spirit has had meaningful posts all game that I dont see coming from him if he were a lone wolf here.

yoyo is just barely playing which is what I expect of him as both alignments, and he probably shouldnt be a townread but his tone is what I remember of his townplay.

bozo is fiesty and hungry to catch something, while at the same time throwing himself around into battles. He is sharply coming after his targets and seems to be playing fearlessly which I think his scumgame is much more withdrawn.

ghug is on vacation, enjoying life. He still has made time to put his ideas out, and his arguments for a no kill are the type of hard stance a town would take either to create dialogue, or to be a contrarion. He may also just simply know how bad town is day 1 that even bothering to put together a real wagon on someone is something he would rather wait to do tomorrow when mafia has had a chance to make a mistake instead.

[bozotheclown]

Yes, it appears that for your entry for example, I took your stats from last 50 games by mistake.

in last 50 games you were
7 mafia out of 11 times, as shown on the last 50 games tab with a winrate of .63
ghugs was listed as only having 5 mafia out of 9 tries with a winrate of .55

screen shot provided shows the tab I grabbed from.

data.png

OK, I think this has shown a potential problem with these type of posts. Since the information accessed by the link can be changed, it has the potential to get around the "no editing posts" rule for the purpose of mafia communication.

[Haze with a Z]

Yeah fuck that. The rule is to play to your win condition: the team you're currently on. This kind of game doesn't work if it's just groveling for recruitment.

that's also a reasonable argument. However, no matter what, town wants to eliminate a maf team today. If you remain town, this helps you because one maf team is eliminated and you just need to get the other. If you get converted, then your rival faction is eliminated. One way or another, eliminating a maf team helps everyone (except said maf team, but screw them).

I don't think the town team has much chance of winning if we eliminate a mafia team today, because the other mafia team will be able to focus entirely on us.

I also think we're much more likely to kill a townie, which doesn't help us either.

They may focus on us but it also takes away half the people that could turn into mafia members which I think is a good thing for us

[brainbomb]

I think the diplomacy person is town with a decent chance they get recruited

I also think brain is town and maybe Hamilton.

Also the spreadsheet was interesting although kinda boring for looking at myself tbh.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WuK46n8Xiel1fnWlPSE7h-iDUcuX7Z_oYS4SW-CMNVs/edit?usp=sharing

I made the spreadsheet more interesting and included your MU winrates. welcome to the fold.

As a side note, you have played 86 games as scum and 268 as town??? Thats quite a lot of games.

I’d bet a solid number of those games are turbos though that only take up about an hour of time total

yes, lol definetely turbos. whats new boo?

[Haze with a Z]

...
I thought this was starting a day later than it did.
Working on a bit of a meta here:


We need to eliminate the two maf leaders, then everyone they've converted to win.

If we miskill today and neither maf targets the other, the ratio is suddenly 4:2:2 and it turns into a spy team 1 vs spy team 2 game, with town having a low chance of winning even if a maf leader is eliminated d2.
Bad for town, ok for both maf teams.

If we miskill today and one maf targets the other, the ratio is 5:2:1 and:
If we miskill tomorrow, the maf team with 2 players will likely kill the maf
leader of the other team, and they have an advantage.
If we kill the maf leader who failed to convert, the remaining maf team
recruits another player and wins soon after.
If we kill the maf leader who converted, the maf leader who did not has an
advantage as they can recruit and the other maf player can neither recruit
nor kill. The ratio becomes 5 1 1 or 4 1 2 and the second maf team most
likely wins.
If we kill the converted maf, the maf leaders (who know who each other are)
both successfully convert and then it's 3:2:2 and town is doomed.
If we kill no one, the same situation below miskill plays out except we have
an additional town player. We still probably lose.

Note: Both maf leaders would know who each other were in this scenario,
so either having more members than the opponent on their team can kill
that leader. They would also likely push for eliminations on each other.

If we miskill today and both maf teams target each other, both maf players will likely push for eliminations on each other. This situation is marginally better for us than our starting point, but very unlikely.

If we kill a maf leader today, the game becomes 6:2 where maf can convert as long as the leader is alive. This is terrible for us but slightly better than most of the alternatives above.

If we don't kill anyone today, we end up in a slightly better position that if we miskilled and the same variations apply.


TLDR: Town is doomed.

Im sure people will disagree, but this post seems to be written from before he got his role PM. He didnt know the game started yet but just had this post written up at the ready?

Even if that is true, I don’t think He would just not say this if he was town tbh so I don’t think it’s an argument for him being mafia tbh.

[Haze with a Z]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WuK46n8Xiel1fnWlPSE7h-iDUcuX7Z_oYS4SW-CMNVs/edit?usp=sharing

I made the spreadsheet more interesting and included your MU winrates. welcome to the fold.

As a side note, you have played 86 games as scum and 268 as town??? Thats quite a lot of games.

I’d bet a solid number of those games are turbos though that only take up about an hour of time total

yes, lol definetely turbos. whats new boo?

My new laptop came today so I get to set it up

[brainbomb]

Yes, it appears that for your entry for example, I took your stats from last 50 games by mistake.

in last 50 games you were
7 mafia out of 11 times, as shown on the last 50 games tab with a winrate of .63
ghugs was listed as only having 5 mafia out of 9 tries with a winrate of .55

screen shot provided shows the tab I grabbed from.

data.png

OK, I think this has shown a potential problem with these type of posts. Since the information accessed by the link can be changed, it has the potential to get around the "no editing posts" rule for the purpose of mafia communication.

We can rectify this by simply using only the master sheets. But I apologize and I respect that concept. I think being able to edit or update the sheet as we go along is not a bad thing, for example suppose I add a new tab for comparison to posting data as of N1 and compare it to a players averages. I could simply just make a new sheet instead to get around the charge of editing things. So, while I respect this stance, a ruling on such a thing would be rife with loopholes.

How bout I just pledge not to edit anything at all, and if I have a new data study, ill just make a new sheet elsewhere.

[Col7by]

that's also a reasonable argument. However, no matter what, town wants to eliminate a maf team today. If you remain town, this helps you because one maf team is eliminated and you just need to get the other. If you get converted, then your rival faction is eliminated. One way or another, eliminating a maf team helps everyone (except said maf team, but screw them).

Eliminating a mafia is always helpful but does it outweigh the benefits of keeping possible townies alive and doing a no-kill? (sorry if this has been another post I’ve got confused who has said what). I think it doesn’t outweigh it based on lack of info from VCA and percentages of winning. I do need to think more about how that impacts myself says getting converted to scum my analysis has been a pure stay town whole game lens

Great. So you want to stay town and win as town. To do that, you need to eliminate both maf leaders, then the rest of their teams. if we kill a maf leader today, we eliminate their entire team. If we nokill and a maf leader recruits successfully, the following day killing a maf leader leaves their teammate alive. Which would you prefer?

I think that risk is not worth it as town because even tho it leaves a mafia leader alive those teams now need to target each other because their numbers are growing rather than just trying to kill off town. Town can get by as mafia pick each other off with more mafia meaning less killing by us

[Haze with a Z]

##vote no-kill
I hate no kill but it makes sense here I think because it would in theory be 4 mafia and 6 town next time tossing our chances of hitting a mafia while the mafia team is still trying to get out the other mafia team. So us town have 40% chance while scum are actually not trying to target us so they have a 22% of elimination next round instead of 11%

It is not guaranteed, but the most likely result of a D1 no-kill is 6-2-2 D2. If a town is DKed D2, worse case for town would be 3-3-3 D3. I think giving up the chance to eliminate a mafia team D1 is not the best option for the town win condition, although it might be for individual town players who think they might be recruited.

I guess I didn’t fully think about the aspect of town players expecting to be recruited. I just thought everyone would be playing as a townsperson today besides the two spies.

Also on another note, Brain I’m starting to see where you are coming from with diplomacy dude but I still feel content with my vote here

[bozotheclown]

Yeah fuck that. The rule is to play to your win condition: the team you're currently on. This kind of game doesn't work if it's just groveling for recruitment

that's also a reasonable argument. However, no matter what, town wants to eliminate a maf team today. If you remain town, this helps you because one maf team is eliminated and you just need to get the other. If you get converted, then your rival faction is eliminated. One way or another, eliminating a maf team helps everyone (except said maf team, but screw them).

I don't think the town team has much chance of winning if we eliminate a mafia team today, because the other mafia team will be able to focus entirely on us.

I also think we're much more likely to kill a townie, which doesn't help us either.

If we do not eliminate a mafia member today, town will not have much information about what is going on with the mafia, so we might as well keep voting no-kill and hope the mafia start getting NKed. That is not a very interesting game for town, though.