M 1029: The webMafia Olympics game 1 SPY VS SPY

[Hamilton Brian]

##VOTE ghug
##END

There is not much that can be determined from D1, we might as well pick someone to DK and move on.

Why ghug? I understand your decision to end, as incomfortable as it makes me.

[bozotheclown]

##VOTE ghug
##END

There is not much that can be determined from D1, we might as well pick someone to DK and move on.

Why ghug? I understand your decision to end, as incomfortable as it makes me.

He had the most votes.

[bozotheclown]

##CALL GM

What happens if both mafia teams simultaneously try to recruit the same town player?

[Col7by]

##vote no-kill
I hate no kill but it makes sense here I think because it would in theory be 4 mafia and 6 town next time tossing our chances of hitting a mafia while the mafia team is still trying to get out the other mafia team. So us town have 40% chance while scum are actually not trying to target us so they have a 22% of elimination next round instead of 11%

[brainbomb]

@ Haze, I just found the most amusing game on MU, we both were town in the gimmicks only game. haha

https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/threads/37498

Town Members

BATMAN
Beatrice
BradLand is My Daddy
Haze with a Z <------------------------
Jaleb
lilypetal
Michelle
moth <-------------------
The Joker
Vegeta

Apparently, we have met before, and not on webdip. And yea im low key reading your MU games because I was curious.

I dont know if ghug is a hit here. I think he would sincerely be amazed at a game where no kill is actually a viable strategy. I saw you think dip is town and I wondered if you had perused some of my contrary arguments on that topic.

While I agree the sentiments expressed in his large post are from a town mindset, I strongly question if that is actually his attempt as scum to pre write that before the game and post it then regardless of his rand. The way he opened that post in particular saying he didnt even realize the game had started makes me think even more that he wrote it with the goal to appear towny, and then could coast.

I also pointed out that larger sermons by dip tend to be his scum heuristic, and his town game does not contain any examples of posts like that. At most maybe 1 post or more a game that comes even half that size. Reinforcing that I think the post itself is actually NAI at best.

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

In this setup, the overwhelming likelyhood seems to be that a maf team will win, even if one is eliminated day 1. Therefore,
whoever is recruited has an advantage, therefore
whoever people believe are strong players have advantages, therefore
the strongest players artificially have greater advantages.

In pregame you mentioned that strong players have or will have long term advantages, but I noticed that part of your topic got left out in this actual game. What is the reason that you've dropped this line of thinking now that the game has started?

I haven't gotten to that part of mech yet?
I've made like 2 posts, be patient.

[brainbomb]

regarding No Kill.

if that's what we do, we dont lose anyone. But my fear is that people will vote no kill and completely stop scumreading anyone or hunting. Nothing is gained from a day where we no kill, and pressure ceases to be applied on anyone at all. We should still be hunting and thinking about who the scum are. No Kill should be the decision we default to in the latter part of the day if nothing else seems useful to pursue.

keep fighting the good fight.
keep hunting.
go for the gold medal.
we must defeat the enemy, and remain steadfast in our stance against them. we cannot do that by holding hands and saying we shall not be moved.

be moved. get fiesty. its still a game, and there is still a hunt. today is the easiest day to identify mafia recruiters because after this day, there may never be only 2 mafia to hunt for again.

As such, everyone can give a top two of most likely to be the recruiters based on this. This will require mafia to decide if they want to recruit based on who scumreads them, and then we can use people who change their reads on a dime for a new day 2 POE

my top two leads here are diplomacyandwar, and col7by.

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

...
I thought this was starting a day later than it did.
Working on a bit of a meta here:


We need to eliminate the two maf leaders, then everyone they've converted to win.

If we miskill today and neither maf targets the other, the ratio is suddenly 4:2:2 and it turns into a spy team 1 vs spy team 2 game, with town having a low chance of winning even if a maf leader is eliminated d2.
Bad for town, ok for both maf teams.

If we miskill today and one maf targets the other, the ratio is 5:2:1 and:
If we miskill tomorrow, the maf team with 2 players will likely kill the maf
leader of the other team, and they have an advantage.
If we kill the maf leader who failed to convert, the remaining maf team
recruits another player and wins soon after.
If we kill the maf leader who converted, the maf leader who did not has an
advantage as they can recruit and the other maf player can neither recruit
nor kill. The ratio becomes 5 1 1 or 4 1 2 and the second maf team most
likely wins.
If we kill the converted maf, the maf leaders (who know who each other are)
both successfully convert and then it's 3:2:2 and town is doomed.
If we kill no one, the same situation below miskill plays out except we have
an additional town player. We still probably lose.

Note: Both maf leaders would know who each other were in this scenario,
so either having more members than the opponent on their team can kill
that leader. They would also likely push for eliminations on each other.

If we miskill today and both maf teams target each other, both maf players will likely push for eliminations on each other. This situation is marginally better for us than our starting point, but very unlikely.

If we kill a maf leader today, the game becomes 6:2 where maf can convert as long as the leader is alive. This is terrible for us but slightly better than most of the alternatives above.

If we don't kill anyone today, we end up in a slightly better position that if we miskilled and the same variations apply.


TLDR: Town is doomed.

Im sure people will disagree, but this post seems to be written from before he got his role PM. He didnt know the game started yet but just had this post written up at the ready?

nope. I had thought about this quite a bit before the game (and posted some related stuff in sign-up) but wrote it on the spot.

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

nope.
the best option for people who are currently town is to attempt to kill a maf. If successful, we enter a situation where we probably lose against the remaining maf team, but several of us get converted to that team.
In other words, the outcome in which the most people who are currently town end up winning is if we kill a maf today.

HB's reaction seems suspicious. Let's miskill him d1 again!
##VOTE HAMILTONBRIAN

Which one is Hamilton, a miskill or an attempt to kill a maf?

Mostly a jokevote based on the fact that HB seems to get miskilled d1 a lot as town.

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

...
I thought this was starting a day later than it did.
Working on a bit of a meta here:
We need to eliminate the two maf leaders, then everyone they've converted to win.

If we miskill today and neither maf targets the other, the ratio is suddenly 4:2:2 and it turns into a spy team 1 vs spy team 2 game, with town having a low chance of winning even if a maf leader is eliminated d2.
Bad for town, ok for both maf teams.

If we miskill today and one maf targets the other, the ratio is 5:2:1 and:
If we miskill tomorrow, the maf team with 2 players will likely kill the maf
leader of the other team, and they have an advantage.
If we kill the maf leader who failed to convert, the remaining maf team
recruits another player and wins soon after.
If we kill the maf leader who converted, the maf leader who did not has an
advantage as they can recruit and the other maf player can neither recruit
nor kill. The ratio becomes 5 1 1 or 4 1 2 and the second maf team most
likely wins.
If we kill the converted maf, the maf leaders (who know who each other are)
both successfully convert and then it's 3:2:2 and town is doomed.
If we kill no one, the same situation below miskill plays out except we have
an additional town player. We still probably lose.

Note: Both maf leaders would know who each other were in this scenario,
so either having more members than the opponent on their team can kill
that leader. They would also likely push for eliminations on each other.

If we miskill today and both maf teams target each other, both maf players will likely push for eliminations on each other. This situation is marginally better for us than our starting point, but very unlikely.

If we kill a maf leader today, the game becomes 6:2 where maf can convert as long as the leader is alive. This is terrible for us but slightly better than most of the alternatives above.

If we don't kill anyone today, we end up in a slightly better position that if we miskilled and the same variations apply.


TLDR: Town is doomed.

Holy shit I think this might be a game where we no kill D1

wrong

[brainbomb]

the fact you arent even trying to snip those posts or anything reinforces my belief you are fluffing.

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

i don't believe in no-killing because town needs information

But what information would we gain with a miskill? There's no discussion around bussing or no-bussing, no protection of teammates.

What I am hoping to gain from a votekill today is getting a maf killed (therefore eliminating their team), not info.
Also, at the moment there are no maf teammates.

[bozotheclown]

##vote no-kill
I hate no kill but it makes sense here I think because it would in theory be 4 mafia and 6 town next time tossing our chances of hitting a mafia while the mafia team is still trying to get out the other mafia team. So us town have 40% chance while scum are actually not trying to target us so they have a 22% of elimination next round instead of 11%

It is not guaranteed, but the most likely result of a D1 no-kill is 6-2-2 D2. If a town is DKed D2, worse case for town would be 3-3-3 D3. I think giving up the chance to eliminate a mafia team D1 is not the best option for the town win condition, although it might be for individual town players who think they might be recruited.

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

I'm wondering how this plays out, and I would love for the two spies to try to recruit the same town player.

But anyway...miskill today (8:2), will become 7:2 at nighttime. Assume 2 valid recruits, begin the day at...5:4? Holy shit. Now suppose we get it right and the next day ends with: 5-3. NK happens, assume another recruit happens... that's game over.

Not killing on D1 changes those numbers to at least give us somewhat of a chance.

no, it doesn't.
At the point where there are 4 maf, we are more or less guaranteed to lose. This happens whether we nokill or miskill. The only situation where we have decent odds of a town win is if we kill a maf leader today, or if one or more maf recruits fail.

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

##vote diplomacy

As he hasnt answered my questions; in M1028 he posted about 95.00 words per post as scum. When hes mafia he loads up his posts. heres an example of his very large posts he tends to make as mafia

M1028 Scum game Dip:
http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?user=Diplomacy&g=1028

M87 Scum game Dip:
http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?user=Diplomacy&g=87

M90 Town game Dip:
http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?g=90&part=Day%201&user=DiplomacyandWarfare

M89 Town game Dip:
http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?g=89&part=Day%201&user=DiplomacyandWarfare

I think in the 2 scum examples you see he tends towards very large posts about things and there is alot less small talk. As mafia his words per day per post are about 95, which is quite high. he makes big big posts as scum.
As town, he has conversations with people. he makes small talk. He fights in the pit with the grunts like a townie would. His words per post per day as town reside at 24.6 words a post. he doesnt do long sermons as town.

current game his 4 posts thus far are topping 123 words per post, and fit the mould he has for himself when hes mafia

Note that my "average words per post as town" and "average posts per day/game as town" took a hit because of my first game (m85) in which I posted minimally as town. Also, your current data on me is from like 2 posts, which are inflated bc im talking about mech.

[bozotheclown]

I'm wondering how this plays out, and I would love for the two spies to try to recruit the same town player.

But anyway...miskill today (8:2), will become 7:2 at nighttime. Assume 2 valid recruits, begin the day at...5:4? Holy shit. Now suppose we get it right and the next day ends with: 5-3. NK happens, assume another recruit happens... that's game over.

Not killing on D1 changes those numbers to at least give us somewhat of a chance.

no, it doesn't.
At the point where there are 4 maf, we are more or less guaranteed to lose. This happens whether we nokill or miskill. The only situation where we have decent odds of a town win is if we kill a maf leader today, or if one or more maf recruits fail.

The remaining town are not guaranteed to lose because they still have a chance of being recruited to a winning mafia team, but I agree with your point.

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

Not really because of the scenarios dip mentioned, just because we're better off not bring less than half the game tomorrow, which has a pretty good chance of happening.

Although we only have a 20% chance of randomly hitting a mafia today, I think that may be the only chance of town winning this game, otherwise the majority of the players, if not all of the players, are going to end up on one of the mafia teams. However, from the perspective of the players who are currently town, the best chance of winning may be to end up on one of the mafia teams before being eliminated.

I agree with this entire post

[bozotheclown]

##CALL GM:

Are the mafia teams informed if they have more or less members than the other mafia team for the purpose of knowing if they can perform a NK?

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

##CALL GM:

Are the mafia teams informed if they have more or less members than the other mafia team for the purpose of knowing if they can perform a NK?

this was answered in sign up: no

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

I'm wondering how this plays out, and I would love for the two spies to try to recruit the same town player.

But anyway...miskill today (8:2), will become 7:2 at nighttime. Assume 2 valid recruits, begin the day at...5:4? Holy shit. Now suppose we get it right and the next day ends with: 5-3. NK happens, assume another recruit happens... that's game over.

Not killing on D1 changes those numbers to at least give us somewhat of a chance.

no, it doesn't.
At the point where there are 4 maf, we are more or less guaranteed to lose. This happens whether we nokill or miskill. The only situation where we have decent odds of a town win is if we kill a maf leader today, or if one or more maf recruits fail.

The remaining town are not guaranteed to lose because they still have a chance of being recruited to a winning mafia team, but I agree with your point.

To be clear, my point is that, with the goal of players who are town winning (not necessarily as town), killing today is a better idea than not killing because we potentially have a chance to knock out an entire maf team.