M 1029: The webMafia Olympics game 1 SPY VS SPY

[ghug]

...
I thought this was starting a day later than it did.
Working on a bit of a meta here:
We need to eliminate the two maf leaders, then everyone they've converted to win.

If we miskill today and neither maf targets the other, the ratio is suddenly 4:2:2 and it turns into a spy team 1 vs spy team 2 game, with town having a low chance of winning even if a maf leader is eliminated d2.
Bad for town, ok for both maf teams.

If we miskill today and one maf targets the other, the ratio is 5:2:1 and:
If we miskill tomorrow, the maf team with 2 players will likely kill the maf
leader of the other team, and they have an advantage.
If we kill the maf leader who failed to convert, the remaining maf team
recruits another player and wins soon after.
If we kill the maf leader who converted, the maf leader who did not has an
advantage as they can recruit and the other maf player can neither recruit
nor kill. The ratio becomes 5 1 1 or 4 1 2 and the second maf team most
likely wins.
If we kill the converted maf, the maf leaders (who know who each other are)
both successfully convert and then it's 3:2:2 and town is doomed.
If we kill no one, the same situation below miskill plays out except we have
an additional town player. We still probably lose.

Note: Both maf leaders would know who each other were in this scenario,
so either having more members than the opponent on their team can kill
that leader. They would also likely push for eliminations on each other.

If we miskill today and both maf teams target each other, both maf players will likely push for eliminations on each other. This situation is marginally better for us than our starting point, but very unlikely.

If we kill a maf leader today, the game becomes 6:2 where maf can convert as long as the leader is alive. This is terrible for us but slightly better than most of the alternatives above.

If we don't kill anyone today, we end up in a slightly better position that if we miskilled and the same variations apply.


TLDR: Town is doomed.

Holy shit I think this might be a game where we no kill D1

[ghug]

Not really because of the scenarios dip mentioned, just because we're better off not bring less than half the game tomorrow, which has a pretty good chance of happening.

[ghug]

##VOTE No kill

[Haze with a Z]

I think the diplomacy person is town with a decent chance they get recruited

I also think brain is town and maybe Hamilton.

Also the spreadsheet was interesting although kinda boring for looking at myself tbh.

[Haze with a Z]

##Vote ghug

I don’t believe your most recent reaction tbh

[Bonatogether]

i don't believe in no-killing because town needs information

[Col7by]

##vote brain
Can’t see the spreadsheet until later so would otherwise love to see my first GM react to a vote *emotional*

[Hamilton Brian]

i don't believe in no-killing because town needs information

But what information would we gain with a miskill? There's no discussion around bussing or no-bussing, no protection of teammates.

[Hamilton Brian]

I'm wondering how this plays out, and I would love for the two spies to try to recruit the same town player.

But anyway...miskill today (8:2), will become 7:2 at nighttime. Assume 2 valid recruits, begin the day at...5:4? Holy shit. Now suppose we get it right and the next day ends with: 5-3. NK happens, assume another recruit happens... that's game over.

Not killing on D1 changes those numbers to at least give us somewhat of a chance.

[Hamilton Brian]

This is the least amount of conversation I think I've ever witnessed. Did I scare you all off or something? :)

Anyway, if we no-kill, we go into the night at 8:2. Assume 2 recruits, next day we are at 6:4. Still not great odds, but better chances to hit mafia. Problem with that is ...I don't know if problem is the right word choice...open up the introduction of the night kills, unless.

Wait a second, won condition for the spy team is to wipe out the other spy team, yeah? I need to read darg's set up again. I think there might be a pretty decent path where town could actually win this.

[dargorygel]

##GM NOTE
Vote Count 1.02
No Kill (2) Hamilton Brian, ghug
Bozotheclown (1) Bonatogether
Hamilton Brian (1) DiplomacyandWarfare
Ghug (1) Haze with a Z
Brainbomb (1) Col7by

Not voted: bozo, brain, Spirit, Yoyo
Not enough posts: bozo, yoyo

For many Nations (and their governments) the Olympics was more than merely a test of skill and determination. The Olympics were part of National Branding. And during the Cold War this was particularly so.

But East and West desired ‘wins’ on the tally, so that their ‘side’ looked better in the eyes of the world: allies, enemies, and undecideds.

Winning was often more important than honor and integrity.

Agencies occasionally tried to increase performance of the athletes from ‘their side.’ The use of drugs was encouraged. The drugs themselves were made available. And at times, athletes had drugs administered to them unwillingly and even unaware.

And over the years, the efforts were extended across the border. “Enemy” athletes were discouraged from enhancing their performance. And false (and true) accusations made their way to the press of cheaters from the other side.

Since detection technology has only slowly advanced, the Agencies found it easy to keep ahead of the curve, and aid their ‘cause.’

[Hamilton Brian]

Rereading this juicy little piece: IF a mafiaSpy attempts to recruit a member from the other team, NOTHING happens. Although the player on the receiving end will be informed of the attempt, AND the recruiter’s identity. Town is NOT informed.

[brainbomb]

##vote diplomacy

As he hasnt answered my questions; in M1028 he posted about 95.00 words per post as scum. When hes mafia he loads up his posts. heres an example of his very large posts he tends to make as mafia

M1028 Scum game Dip:
http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?user=Diplomacy&g=1028

M87 Scum game Dip:
http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?user=Diplomacy&g=87

M90 Town game Dip:
http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?g=90&part=Day%201&user=DiplomacyandWarfare

M89 Town game Dip:
http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?g=89&part=Day%201&user=DiplomacyandWarfare

I think in the 2 scum examples you see he tends towards very large posts about things and there is alot less small talk. As mafia his words per day per post are about 95, which is quite high. he makes big big posts as scum.
As town, he has conversations with people. he makes small talk. He fights in the pit with the grunts like a townie would. His words per post per day as town reside at 24.6 words a post. he doesnt do long sermons as town.

current game his 4 posts thus far are topping 123 words per post, and fit the mould he has for himself when hes mafia

[bozotheclown]

Not really because of the scenarios dip mentioned, just because we're better off not bring less than half the game tomorrow, which has a pretty good chance of happening.

Although we only have a 20% chance of randomly hitting a mafia today, I think that may be the only chance of town winning this game, otherwise the majority of the players, if not all of the players, are going to end up on one of the mafia teams. However, from the perspective of the players who are currently town, the best chance of winning may be to end up on one of the mafia teams before being eliminated.

[SpiritoftheRadio]

No kill folks are forgetting the mafia are two different teams whose main win condition is eliminating each other. People are counting them as the same team in their logic, makes no sense. They want to kill each other way more than town because if they do, they get an optional nk and cannot be nked themselves. That means surviving town will likely be able to coast for some time while they duke it out making the standard town vs. mafia counting irrelevant until the other team is on the back foot. Plus HB's logic of saying things like well in a couple nights we could have majority mafia and it'll be game over is kind of like... well yeah but also most of us won't be town anymore... idk, you just gotta play your best from the position you're at currently, and to me that means we kill. 1/4 chance of chopping off the head of one mafia team from the get go is a bit too good to pass up to me.

I buy Dip's thinking on this as kind of genuine, HB's a bit too but less so, but I don't really buy Ghug's take on this at all. If it was baiting people to go along with a bad no kill to see who he could catch, I kind of get it, but he definitely wasn't being real there. Everyone being invested in killing day 1 is kind of a main stay of the genre, if that isn't the case the set up is pretty messy, since we just end up sitting around with thumbs in our bums for a while. Game set up makes sense to kill today for town, maybe slightly less so for scum because while they are likely to live, they have a 1/8 chance of losing immediately, I could see safe boy scum wanting a no kill more than a town would. My feeling is ##vote ghug, since he is the only one I feel is being disingenuous so far.

[SpiritoftheRadio]

Shout out to bozo for doing math better than me, there are 10 players not 8, so 1/5 chance of hitting mafia team lead day 1, not 1/4. I still like that chance a whole better than just sitting around.

[brainbomb]

I think the diplomacy person is town with a decent chance they get recruited

I also think brain is town and maybe Hamilton.

Also the spreadsheet was interesting although kinda boring for looking at myself tbh.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WuK46n8Xiel1fnWlPSE7h-iDUcuX7Z_oYS4SW-CMNVs/edit?usp=sharing

I made the spreadsheet more interesting and included your MU winrates. welcome to the fold.

As a side note, you have played 86 games as scum and 268 as town??? Thats quite a lot of games.

[Hamilton Brian]

Spirit, I can definitely see your side of the decision, although I don't fundamentally agree as of right now. I did address the idea that there are two mafia teams. They're going to want that other team eliminated. They need that other team eliminated a lot quicker than eliminating town.

I suppose taking a shot at a 1 out of 5 hit is somewhat better than taking no shot.

Any other ping on ghug besides the advocacy for no-kill?

[brainbomb]

...
I thought this was starting a day later than it did.
Working on a bit of a meta here:


We need to eliminate the two maf leaders, then everyone they've converted to win.

If we miskill today and neither maf targets the other, the ratio is suddenly 4:2:2 and it turns into a spy team 1 vs spy team 2 game, with town having a low chance of winning even if a maf leader is eliminated d2.
Bad for town, ok for both maf teams.

If we miskill today and one maf targets the other, the ratio is 5:2:1 and:
If we miskill tomorrow, the maf team with 2 players will likely kill the maf
leader of the other team, and they have an advantage.
If we kill the maf leader who failed to convert, the remaining maf team
recruits another player and wins soon after.
If we kill the maf leader who converted, the maf leader who did not has an
advantage as they can recruit and the other maf player can neither recruit
nor kill. The ratio becomes 5 1 1 or 4 1 2 and the second maf team most
likely wins.
If we kill the converted maf, the maf leaders (who know who each other are)
both successfully convert and then it's 3:2:2 and town is doomed.
If we kill no one, the same situation below miskill plays out except we have
an additional town player. We still probably lose.

Note: Both maf leaders would know who each other were in this scenario,
so either having more members than the opponent on their team can kill
that leader. They would also likely push for eliminations on each other.

If we miskill today and both maf teams target each other, both maf players will likely push for eliminations on each other. This situation is marginally better for us than our starting point, but very unlikely.

If we kill a maf leader today, the game becomes 6:2 where maf can convert as long as the leader is alive. This is terrible for us but slightly better than most of the alternatives above.

If we don't kill anyone today, we end up in a slightly better position that if we miskilled and the same variations apply.


TLDR: Town is doomed.

Im sure people will disagree, but this post seems to be written from before he got his role PM. He didnt know the game started yet but just had this post written up at the ready?

[bozotheclown]

##VOTE ghug
##END

There is not much that can be determined from D1, we might as well pick someone to DK and move on.