M 1029: The webMafia Olympics game 1 SPY VS SPY

[Bonatogether]

radio bona reporting in, actually did read the setup but not in past week, haven't read any posts or the player list. ##vote bozo

[Bonatogether]

lmao there's only one page? who fell off

[Bonatogether]

bona out, will report back later

[dargorygel]

Vote Count 1.01
Yoyoyozo: (1) ghug
Bozotheclown (1): Bonatogether

GM Note:
GM flavor will be (until I run out of recalled stories) a brief description of Cold War Olympic Spy Activities, provided to me by a (somewhat distant) relative. The names and exact circumstances will be disguised for obvious reasons.

Frank was recruited into the CIA out of college, where he was an active and successful athlete. One of his first postings was the 1972 Olympic Games. He also took part, at various, in other Olympic Games. Among other roles, Frank served as a liaison, an analyst, a recruitment officer, a strategist, and as a flunkie.

One of his particular regrets was a failure to win a spot in the 1972 Olympics as a competitor. “It would have opened up countless doors!” He declared.

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

...
I thought this was starting a day later than it did.
Working on a bit of a meta here:
We need to eliminate the two maf leaders, then everyone they've converted to win.

If we miskill today and neither maf targets the other, the ratio is suddenly 4:2:2 and it turns into a spy team 1 vs spy team 2 game, with town having a low chance of winning even if a maf leader is eliminated d2.
Bad for town, ok for both maf teams.

If we miskill today and one maf targets the other, the ratio is 5:2:1 and:
If we miskill tomorrow, the maf team with 2 players will likely kill the maf
leader of the other team, and they have an advantage.
If we kill the maf leader who failed to convert, the remaining maf team
recruits another player and wins soon after.
If we kill the maf leader who converted, the maf leader who did not has an
advantage as they can recruit and the other maf player can neither recruit
nor kill. The ratio becomes 5 1 1 or 4 1 2 and the second maf team most
likely wins.
If we kill the converted maf, the maf leaders (who know who each other are)
both successfully convert and then it's 3:2:2 and town is doomed.
If we kill no one, the same situation below miskill plays out except we have
an additional town player. We still probably lose.

Note: Both maf leaders would know who each other were in this scenario,
so either having more members than the opponent on their team can kill
that leader. They would also likely push for eliminations on each other.

If we miskill today and both maf teams target each other, both maf players will likely push for eliminations on each other. This situation is marginally better for us than our starting point, but very unlikely.

If we kill a maf leader today, the game becomes 6:2 where maf can convert as long as the leader is alive. This is terrible for us but slightly better than most of the alternatives above.

If we don't kill anyone today, we end up in a slightly better position that if we miskilled and the same variations apply.


TLDR: Town is doomed.

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

##CALL GM
Are maf "leaders" seperate roles?
Specifically, will them being leaders flip when they die?

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

Oh baby, it begins. I wasn't even around for start and I get to be the first *sniffs the fresh cascadia air* this is gunna be good

That being said, the restraint bb and sweet are showing against shit posting is interesting... I expect walls of text...

sweet ain't in this game. Why are you making things up, and so early on in the game?

Sus!

HB's reaction seems suspicious. Let's miskill him d1 again!
##VOTE HAMILTONBRIAN

[dargorygel]

##CALL GM
Are maf "leaders" seperate roles?
Specifically, will them being leaders flip when they die?

They will flip simply as Spies. You will NOT know if they were the original.

[Hamilton Brian]

Dip, are you saying it's better we don't kill anyone today?

From what I recall from reading the setup it also seems like only the more numerous mafia team can instigate the night kill.

I can't see this game going on for very long.

[Hamilton Brian]

Odds are really high that we'll miskill today. I think I like our chances better if we no-kill.

##Vote no-kill

Of course the pros/cons list has to come out in this case. A big con is that we don't get any vca information.

[brainbomb]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WuK46n8Xiel1fnWlPSE7h-iDUcuX7Z_oYS4SW-CMNVs/edit?usp=sharing

Here is the data for win rates and posting habits for the players in this game.

[Hamilton Brian]

You've been a beast getting all of this data together.

[Yoyoyozo]

##VOTE yoyo

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

Dip, are you saying it's better we don't kill anyone today?

From what I recall from reading the setup it also seems like only the more numerous mafia team can instigate the night kill.

I can't see this game going on for very long.

nope.
the best option for people who are currently town is to attempt to kill a maf. If successful, we enter a situation where we probably lose against the remaining maf team, but several of us get converted to that team.
In other words, the outcome in which the most people who are currently town end up winning is if we kill a maf today.

[brainbomb]

nope.
the best option for people who are currently town is to attempt to kill a maf. If successful, we enter a situation where we probably lose against the remaining maf team, but several of us get converted to that team.
In other words, the outcome in which the most people who are currently town end up winning is if we kill a maf today.

HB's reaction seems suspicious. Let's miskill him d1 again!
##VOTE HAMILTONBRIAN

Which one is Hamilton, a miskill or an attempt to kill a maf?

[brainbomb]

In this setup, the overwhelming likelyhood seems to be that a maf team will win, even if one is eliminated day 1. Therefore,
whoever is recruited has an advantage, therefore
whoever people believe are strong players have advantages, therefore
the strongest players artificially have greater advantages.

In pregame you mentioned that strong players have or will have long term advantages, but I noticed that part of your topic got left out in this actual game. What is the reason that you've dropped this line of thinking now that the game has started?

[Hamilton Brian]

Do I have this right? We are starting out with 2 mafia on opposite teams. Tonight they cannot NK, right, since they are of equal strength. They can only recruit.

Scenarios:
a) miskill and therefore no KN, just recruit

b) kill mafia today and 1) NK happens OR 2) recruiting happens

We can't even do a "three players you wouldn't kill" list right now since that wouldn't really garner any information.

[Haze with a Z]

Hello everyone! I don’t have much to say but wanted to say something tbh.

Objection: Vague

Your fault tbh

[Haze with a Z]

Holy shit, that was high effort. And good, even for k-pop.

I wish I had a cat to talk about. If I had a dog, i'd name them Kepler. Both because I do the physics stuff but also because on an episode of the Dollup they said Johannes Kepler liked to be tied up and called a dog. He and Tycho Brahe had a party moose that they would get drunk on fun occasions. But once, they lent the party moose to a friend and it got too drunk and fell down some stairs and died.

My dogs are making a bunch of noise and I keep trying to see what they are doing and then they come to me holding nothing

[Haze with a Z]

Do I have this right? We are starting out with 2 mafia on opposite teams. Tonight they cannot NK, right, since they are of equal strength. They can only recruit.

Scenarios:
a) miskill and therefore no KN, just recruit

b) kill mafia today and 1) NK happens OR 2) recruiting happens

We can't even do a "three players you wouldn't kill" list right now since that wouldn't really garner any information.

I think that’s how it would work although the issue I see is that I don’t see a world where a recruit doesn’t happen, even if there is only one team